80 replies to this topic

[Fearsome Fred]

sagaz, on 06 May 2012 - 06:14 PM, said:

I don't see the need for three more. Really.
If he take a pace like in aGoT, but with a book twice it's size I can't see why he can't finish in two more books.

Twice the size of aGoT is 2000 manuscript pages, and GRRM says 1500 is the maximum his publishers will publish.  So if he needs 4000 manuscript pages to finish, his publishers are likely to divide it up into 3 volumes.

[sagaz]

aGoT (us paperback) is around 830 pages... the rest are around 1000. I think the largest is aSoS with 1200.
1500 is almost twice the size

[Fearsome Fred]

sagaz, on 06 May 2012 - 06:48 PM, said:

aGoT (us paperback) is around 830 pages... the rest are around 1000. I think the largest is aSoS with 1200.
1500 is almost twice the size

When GRRM gives numbers of pages, he is almost always referring to manuscript pages.
Books 1 & 4 were about 1000 manuscript pages.
Books 3 & 5 were about 1500 manuscipt pages.
Book 2 was somewhere in the middle.

1500 manuscript pages is (according to GRRM) the maximum a publisher will publish.

[CrypticWeirwood]

David C. Simmons, on 06 May 2012 - 05:09 PM, said:

Considering that GRRM I think said that the 6th book is twice as long as ADWD, I think it's safe to assume that GRRM is trying his damnest to finish this in two books, even if he has to make one 3,000 pages long

He did?  Really? Where?

I mean, sure I can believe that, but gosh.

People need to remember how different these books are in size.  By word count, not page count, where 100% means the average of all five, the  books respectively clock in at:

• Game: 82% of average length
  
• Clash: 91% of average length
  
• Storm: 119% of average length
  
• Feast: 88% of average length
  
• Dance: 120% of average length

As you see, Storm and Dance are both about half again the  size of Game.  Those two books together are thrice the length of the first one.

So it isn’t sensible to measure things by “the number of books”.   Something twice as long as Dance would already be thrice as long as Game. There is no way he will publish something twice as long as Dance.  It simply cannot be published that thick as one volume.

[Fearsome Fred]

CrypticWeirwood, on 06 May 2012 - 07:04 PM, said:

So it isn’t sensible to measure things by “the number of books”.   Something twice as long as Dance would already be thrice as long as Game. There is no way he will publish something twice as long as Dance.  It simply cannot be published that thick as one volume.

It can be.  But GRRM says his publisher will not do it for reasons of cost vs. profit.  He says 1500-1550 manuscript pages is his publisher's limit, beyond which point he is forced to divide it into additional volumes.

I do recall him referring to 3000 pages in an interview, where he also spoke of his promise/hope/intent/aspiration/fantasy of finishing in 2 volumes.  But I am pretty sure the 3000 pages was a reference to combined length of the last 2 volumes.  And as always, he was referring to manuscript pages.

Edited by Fearsome Fred, 06 May 2012 - 07:10 PM.

[Cheese Pudding]

I'd love 3 more books...but only if TWOW were released this year and the next one in 2014, so that the last could be released in 2017. I'd die of anxiety if it lasted 10 more years.

[LuisDantas]

David C. Simmons, on 06 May 2012 - 05:09 PM, said:

Considering that GRRM I think said that the 6th book is twice as long as ADWD, I think it's safe to assume that GRRM is trying his damnest to finish this in two books, even if he has to make one 3,000 pages long

On the one hand, that is nice to know.

On the other, it is all-out funny to think that the size of the tale will vary so much among editions, let alone languages.  As it is, the UK version is arguably already at seven volumes (but it depends on the edition, I believe).  Many foreign language editions divide it further still.  It will take a scorecard of some sort to reference the translations.

[Fearsome Fred]

Cheese Pudding, on 06 May 2012 - 07:56 PM, said:

I'd love 3 more books...but only if TWOW were released this year and the next one in 2014, so that the last could be released in 2017.

If TWOW is released this year it will be 200 pages long.  Manuscript pages, that is ...

Quote

I'd die of anxiety if it lasted 10 more years.

You will die of anxiety.

[Fearsome Fred]

LuisDantas, on 06 May 2012 - 08:02 PM, said:

On the one hand, that is nice to know.

GRRM never said that TWOW would be 3000 pages long, or that it would be twice as long as DANCE.

If that does happen, it will certainly be split into 2 volumes.

[Per128]

Fearsome Fred, on 06 May 2012 - 08:06 PM, said:

If TWOW is released this year it will be 200 pages long.  Manuscript pages, that is ...

I suppose the exaggerated pessimism is a device to temper your own personal expectations, but there's the risk of people lending credence to your posts in this thread, which seems a bit cruel.

[Fearsome Fred]

Per128, on 06 May 2012 - 08:14 PM, said:

I suppose the exaggerated pessimism is a device to temper your own personal expectations, but there's the risk of people lending credence to your posts in this thread, which seems a bit cruel.

Where's the cruelty?  It is certain that WINDS will NOT be released this year.  If it is, it will be only 200 manuscript pages long, since, as of the beginning of this month, that is all of it that he has written so far.

An additional consideration is that he has, as far as we know, yet to finish any of the projects he said he had to finish before he resumed working on WINDS.

Edited by Fearsome Fred, 06 May 2012 - 09:09 PM.

[Cheese Pudding]

Fearsome Fred, on 06 May 2012 - 08:06 PM, said:

If TWOW is released this year it will be 200 pages long.  Manuscript pages, that is ...



You will die of anxiety.

I know it can't be released this year, I just said what I would like to see considering 3 more books. 3 books with a gap of 3 years is just sad, really sad.

And yes, I'll die of anxiety

[JayDubya]

Before I read ADWD, I thought he could do it in 2 if Dany arrived in Westeros by the end of the book.  Not only did she not, but he added significant new developments: the War in the North and Young Griff's Blackfyre Rebellion.  In addition to Dany's ongoing inability to assemble an army, there's the prophecy that she has to go East to Asshai.

I made a list in another thread on this topic of all the unresolved plotlines. There are about 50 of them.  

In 2 more books, he'll have maybe 10 of those 50 plotlines resolved.  And this assumes he doesn't add any new ones.   in 3 books, I think he might be able to resolve 15 more.   4 books gets him to roughly 40 of these plotlines resolved well.   Based on his style of writing, the attention to detail and the number of characters to address, I honestly believe we're looking at 4, maybe 5 books to go.

I say this because I just read The Hedge Knight, where he confidently predicts that the whole story will be wrapped up in 3 books.  I say this because he managed to add more new plotlines in ADWD than he resolved.  I say this because we haven't even assembled an Other army, let alone broken the Wall and marched south to the Riverlands.  

So, my prediction:  4-5 books, 12-20 years to go.  And  51% sure he dies with the story unfinished.

No, I'm not happy about this either.   But I don't feel optimistic right now.

[genegirl]

I am in agreement with 3 more books,  perhaps THE WINDS OF WINTER as two books.

[Apple Martini]

He knows far better than me (or any of you) how many books he needs to finish. Just because I don't see how he can wrap it all up in two books — and honestly, I can't — doesn't mean he won't be able to. Having said that, unless both books are as long as A Storm of Swords and are just as fast-paced, I think it's a losing battle.

Not that I'd mind a third book, especially if it means that he'll use "A Time for Wolves."

[Fearsome Fred]

JayDubya wrote:

Quote

So, my prediction: 4-5 books, 12-20 years to go. And 51% sure he dies with the story unfinished.

"I say," said Shasta in a rather shocked voice, "Oughtn't you say 'May he live forever?'"

You are about to bring down moderator wrath upon this thread with your morbid speculations about the mortality of our noble Tisroc.

I am sure our noble Tisroc will outlive all us mere mortals.  That said, I think your assessment of completion in 4-5 books, and in 12-20 years, is about right.  It may even be optimistic.

Edited by Fearsome Fred, 07 May 2012 - 01:03 AM.

[Lord Damian]

If Winters last 4-8 years in the story and he has already stated the last book would be A dream of Spring, he will have to kill some time off. The next book, then two more with a year or two time span after TWOW.

[Fearsome Fred]

AppleMartini wrote:

Quote

He knows far better than me (or any of you) how many books he needs to finish.

He claims no such knowledge.  If the past is any indication, then either he does not know, or cannot be trusted to tell us.

At this point, when he says "seven books" (both of which he now envisages as being of maximum length) it is nothing more than a fond aspiration.  He is not even promising that, at this point.

Basically, his aspiration is 3000 pages.  If that runs overlong (and it always does) then it will run into 3 books, as per his publisher's maximum of circa 1500 pages per book.

[Fearsome Fred]

Lord Damian wrote:

Quote

If Winters last 4-8 years in the story and he has already stated the last book would be A dream of Spring, he will have to kill some time off.

Ah no.  I have no hope of THAT much progress.  The series will end in Winter, with the survivors DREAMING of Spring, not with Spring itself.

[kkae]

In one (recent?) interview GRRM said that seven would be a great number and he intends to finish the story in two books.