100 replies to this topic

[Humphrey Plantagenet]

At the end of ADwD Cersei’s position is pretty desperate. Lancel has surely told the High Septon of the Twincest. The only reason moves aren’t being made to remove Tommen is that the Tyrells need him to be legitimate so they can keep control of the Iron Throne.

The humiliation heaped on Cersei was meant (and surely succeeded) to strip her of all authority and chance of wielding political power. With Kevan removed, there is no representative for the Lannisters in KL and nobody to defend Cersei.

Cersei’s been incredibly paranoid since Joff’s death , and the manner of Kevan’s is going to send her completely nuts. She’s going to be convinced Tyrion is hiding in the walls, trying to kill her and Tommen, and that the Tyrells are plotting against her. She has no political or military power, no protectors and no means to protect herself. When she hears of Kevan’s murder she’s going to expect the Tyrells to take Tommen away from her completely. And she’d probably be right. She won’t trust them to protect him from Tyrion.  

So surely she’s going to try and escape from KL. Qyburn is no Varys, but by now he’ll have learned enough about the Red Keep to know a way out. He’s the only one to show continued support for Cersei, and given his role in her attempt to bring down the Tyrells he’s not got much choice. There’s no possibility of him protecting her, but he could get her out of KL along with Tommen.

The major (seriously major) drawback is, where can they go? Especially with any hope of being safe. Casterly Rock would be the destination, but how the hell could they get there?

Cersei is a prisoner of the Tyrells, convinced Tyrion will murder her and her son and without power or protection. If Qyburn can convince her he knows a way to reach the Rock, I think she’ll run.

[kwvapor]

I don't think she will run.  

She'll use Robert Strong to win her freedom, then the death of her uncle and the gold coin found in the cells to remove Tyrells from power.  We'll see a new Queen Cersei, humiliated and humbled, she has learned a once in a lifetime lesson she'll never forget and become even more sinister or crazy...she'll definitely win her freedom by combat.  Right?  Unless someone can kill a dead guy.

It'll be what Varys wanted.

She may put on a new mask, and use the FAITH as her powerbase.  Like a believer reborn kind of thing.  This will put Cersei+Faith Army vs. High Garden et al.  This might be the time she thinks about LF and the other people she needs.

[Sand Snake No. 9]

People are predicting that Cersei will return to power but I don't see how that can happen.  Even if she wins her trial by combat, and I assume she will, the Tyrells will have completely taken over the small council, and it's the small council that choses the regent.  I don't think even Robert Strong could prevail against the thousands of Tyrell troops now in the City.  An alliance with the Faith is a good idea, but Cersei wants revenge on the High Septon and his Septas for the Walk of Shame.

It might be good for her to go to Casterly Rock, but I assume Aegon's rebellion will spread and it will be dangerous to cross country.  Taking a ship isn't safe either with the Ironborn out raiding -- although a Cersei/Euron showdown might be awesome.

Well, Varys wants her back in power, so I assume she'll get there.  I just don't see a realistic plot to get her there.

[just an Other]

I don't think there is any sort of voting on the regent. I kind of fhtink that it is suppossed to be the closest living relative of the king. Only Ned challenged Cersei's right to be the regent and that was because Robert's will clearly named him so. Kevan was invited to become the regent by the council duirng Cersei's imprisonment, because they were the last bit of government around. With her cleared of the charges, I don't think there is any legitimate reason to deny her regency. Her authority should be largely nominal of course and the Tyrell's will probalbly try to get her to abdictate.

[mcb]

Sand Snake No. 9, on 07 May 2012 - 04:02 PM, said:

It might be good for her to go to Casterly Rock, but I assume Aegon's rebellion will spread and it will be dangerous to cross country.  Taking a ship isn't safe either with the Ironborn out raiding -- although a Cersei/Euron showdown might be awesome.

Epic, indeed. They'll go into pissing contest re: who's more insane, just like McMurphy and Harding did in "One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest".
Cersei: I voted for Eisenhower.
Harding: Yeah? I voted for Eisenhower twice!
Cersei: Oh yeah? And I'm voting for Eisenhower again!

[Humphrey Plantagenet]

Censored Wolf, on 07 May 2012 - 03:20 PM, said:

I don't think she will run.

She'll use Robert Strong to win her freedom, then the death of her uncle and the gold coin found in the cells to remove Tyrells from power. We'll see a new Queen Cersei, humiliated and humbled, she has learned a once in a lifetime lesson she'll never forget and become even more sinister or crazy...she'll definitely win her freedom by combat. Right? Unless someone can kill a dead guy.

I’m sure Ser Robert will win the trial by combat. But she’s still going to be basically a prisoner. She has no political supporters. And following her walk of shame she’s not exactly going to appeal to the masses.

just an Other, on 07 May 2012 - 04:34 PM, said:

I don't think there is any sort of voting on the regent. I kind of fhtink that it is suppossed to be the closest living relative of the king. Only Ned challenged Cersei's right to be the regent and that was because Robert's will clearly named him so. Kevan was invited to become the regent by the council duirng Cersei's imprisonment, because they were the last bit of government around. With her cleared of the charges, I don't think there is any legitimate reason to deny her regency. Her authority should be largely nominal of course and the Tyrell's will probalbly try to get her to abdictate.

Regents nearly always ended up being family members. It was the best way of maintaining power. But it’s not a rule. Sometimes a regency council would be established. But  Cersei isn’t going to be given the regency because she’s the only Lannister standing. There’s no way the Tyrells will allow her to be regent, and there’s nobody to back her claim. She’s a laughing stock and a whore in the eyes of the people of KL and Tommen needs to be kept away from her…that’s the angle the HS & Tyrells have been playing with public humiliation and winning the trial by combat isn’t going to fix that.

Cerise won’t let the Tyrells take her son without a fight. But she’s got no hope there, so I think she’ll run.

[David C. Hunter]

I see Cersei burning down King's Landing before fleeing

[the Scorpion Knight]

cersei won't run she too proud for that.
and the high septon needs two fiddle's can play (the other is mace)

[AvengerofWinterfell]

she wont run.  She's much to crazy to do so.  Crazy people done realize when they're in danger (re-instituting the Faith Militant was dumb) or when they've lost.

[Lummel]

I imagine that she will run.

The Tyrells are too strong in Kings Landing.  The High Septon is accusing her of crimes including regicide and deicide.  Ser Robert Strong, although he would probably win any trial by combat is a liability because he is an abomination constructed by Qybern down in the dungeons.  Should he appear as Cersei's champion it will only take one loud voice to point out that the non-talking, non-eating, non-shitting giant kingsguard is remarkably like the very dead Gregor to disqualify her and mark her out as someone who consorts with demons & co.  Note the Tyrells on the Small Council are already suspicious of Ser Robert Strong.  There's enough there to execute Cersei without having to bring Tommen's parentage into the question, in fact for the Tyrells since dead Mothers tell no tales it may be better if cersei is permanently removed.

She'd have to head for Casterly Rock if she were to flee.

[Lyanna Stark]

Lummel, on 08 May 2012 - 05:15 AM, said:

She'd have to head for Casterly Rock if she were to flee.

Kevan also states that she is being sent to Casterly Rock, and it seems that would be the safest place for her. What I wonder is: will she try and take Tommen with her? She cannot reach Myrcella who is in Dorne, but she could potentially snatch Tommen and leg it.

[RobertOfTheHouseBaratheon]

There is still a heavy Lannister presence in KL and the gold cloaks. With Kevan dead all those Lannister troops and supporters will head to Cersei. If they can believe as Cersei will that the murders of Kevan was by a Tyrell then there support will become more fanatical. They'll also be a reaction from some Lords who don't like the idea of Tyrells being incharge, the Martels to name but one. They will refuse a Tyrell regency but no one could refuse the boys mother as regent.

The faith may help, and her own ruthlessness as well. Tyrells may have more soldiers in KL but one night time swoop by the gold cloaks and Mace could be in a black cell before he can get to his troops.

[Pellaeon]

Lyanna Stark, on 08 May 2012 - 05:21 AM, said:

Kevan also states that she is being sent to Casterly Rock, and it seems that would be the safest place for her.

I doubt there ia a safe place for her at all, especial if Tyrion comes back

[Lummel]

RobertOfTheHouseBaratheon, on 08 May 2012 - 05:29 AM, said:

...The faith may help, and her own ruthlessness as well. Tyrells may have more soldiers in KL but one night time swoop by the gold cloaks and Mace could be in a black cell before he can get to his troops.

The goldcloaks aren't tied into the Lannister anymore.  The Kettleblacks have been removed and are in prison.  The Tyrells have been adding their troops into the Goldcloaks and have been blocking attempts to add Westermen.  There are Lannster soldiers in Kings Landing but they are badly outnumbered by the tyrell forces.

The faith is not going to fight for a Deicide.  Who has Cersei got to plan and command a swoop to arrest all the Tyrell leaders?  And  she would need to have Garlan and Tarly as well as Mace to have a chance of taking power in Kings Landing.

Pellaeon, on 08 May 2012 - 05:35 AM, said:

I doubt there ia a safe place for her at all, especial if Tyrion comes back

Long term maybe not, but Cersei has plenty of time to get to Casterly Rock before Tyrion can.

[Lyanna Stark]

Lummel, on 08 May 2012 - 05:52 AM, said:

The goldcloaks aren't tied into the Lannister anymore.  The Kettleblacks have been removed and are in prison.  The Tyrells have been adding their troops into the Goldcloaks and have been blocking attempts to add Westermen.  There are Lannster soldiers in Kings Landing but they are badly outnumbered by the tyrell forces.

The faith is not going to fight for a Deicide.  Who has Cersei got to plan and command a swoop to arrest all the Tyrell leaders?  And  she would need to have Garlan and Tarly as well as Mace to have a chance of taking power in Kings Landing.

Indeed. Kings Landing has become a very unsafe place for Cersei. The only real ally she seems to have left is Qyburn, and I wonder how long that will last?

Further, Margaery had her little outburst at Cersei which means it's out in the open how much she despises Cersei so I expect the Tyrells won't play the subtle game with Cersei anymore. The gloves are off. If Cersei does not manage to run for Casterly Rock, I imagine the Tyrells might do something like put her in the Maidenvault like Baelor the Blessed did his sisters.

The only reason I can see Cersei not running is if she decides to stay because of Tommen. She loves her children and is absolutely distraught that she can't have Tommen and Myrcella with her.

[Lummel]

The maidenvault?  Presumably they would have to rename it the Adulteressvault to make sure that people didn't get the wrong idea.

[kg1982]

People seem to think Margaery is going to be declared innocent for some reason?  I think that the opposite is likely.

[Grip]

I think Cersei has already been given a chance to flee, by Ned in AGOT. Remember what she said then? "When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die. There is no middle ground." I think this will come back and bite her, feels like something Martin could do. She considers herself a lion, a Lannister of Casterly Rock, might be her pride prevents her from trying to run. If her children were threatened hovewer I am sure she would make a run for it..

[Lyanna Stark]

kg1982, on 08 May 2012 - 08:21 AM, said:

People seem to think Margaery is going to be declared innocent for some reason?  I think that the opposite is likely.

Why? I believe there were indications in ADWD that the Faith thought the accusations against Margaery were weak, since the accused had retracted their stories and the Kettleblack accused Cersei instead once they started torturing him.

There is also a large Tyrell army in Kings Landing, which would make any move on Margaery a potential bloodbath. Mace Tyrell and Randyll Tarly will not accept a Walk of Shame or anything silly like that for Margaery.

[WhiteWalder]

Grip, on 08 May 2012 - 08:36 AM, said:

I think Cersei has already been given a chance to flee, by Ned in AGOT. Remember what she said then? "When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die. There is no middle ground." I think this will come back and bite her, feels like something Martin could do. She considers herself a lion, a Lannister of Casterly Rock, might be her pride prevents her from trying to run. If her children were threatened hovewer I am sure she would make a run for it..

I'm with Grip on this one.  She is too far into the game to run away.  Now that Jamie has forsaken her, she has nothing to run away to.