kg1982, on 08 May 2012 - 10:47 PM, said:
Yes. Margaery is probably innocent of the charges; that doesn't mean that she'll win her trial. When the story says one thing is going to happen, I assume the other thing will happen. Varys wants chaos in King's Landing; what better way to set the Lannisters and the Tyrells even more at odds than to have Margaery executed.
Varys wants chaos, true, but Varys has no influence over the Faith. The new High Septon is an independent new power source that nobody had counted on, not even Varys. The High Septon is not stupid however and it would be disaster to proclaim Margaery guilty since it will spawn civil war more or less in Kings Landing. Remember too that Margaery, unlike Cersei, is popular among the smallfolk. The accusations against her were also clearly fabrications by Cersei's hand. Even if the examination showed Margaery having no maidenhead left (how can they tell this anyway? since at least one person notes horseriding could have the same effect, it's a non evidence), the accusations are quite obviously faked. The only one who still held on to his accusations was the Blue Bard, and he had been tortured until he lost his mind. The High Septon isn't gullible, he must have realised that the accusations of Cersei's were only intrigue to get Margaery to take the fall.
The Lannister forces are spent anyway with Kevan dead and Jaime missing, and I am not sure executing Margaery would even add to tensions, since Margaery is Tommen's queen and the Lannisters support Tommen, so I doubt they'd support an execution of his queen.
Fageon has Storm's End and Euron is probably gunning for Oldtown; the Reach army isn't going to stay in King's Landing for very long. Horn Hill seems fairly close to Oldtown considering Sam was going to rent a cart and bring Gilly and the baby there, so I'm assuming that Tarly will be going back to defend Horn Hill. Mace Tyrell will likely be dispatched to Storm's End and will go because he is a fool.
The Redwyne fleet has left for the Reach, hasn't it? Cersei had it from Aurane Waters that Loras had taken Dragonstone so the fleet was free to move. That should give the Ironborn something to worry about.
As for a "silly" punishment, Cersei's quite horrific punishment was for a widowed woman who confessed to sleeping around after her husband died. It wasn't for the more serious crimes that Cersei is accused of. Generally the crimes that Margaery is accused of (adultery) are punishable by death.
True, but it should be obvious to anyone who isn't thick as a plank that Cersei had it all fabricated. The new High Septon may be a fanatic, but he doesn't seem the least bit stupid.