100 replies to this topic

[mcb]

I, on 08 May 2012 - 03:12 PM, said:

Actually its NOT hers.
Jamie is the eldest son but he technically disqualified himself upon joining the kingsguard.
TYRION is the legal lord of Casterley Rock

An argument might be made for Tyrion's son (if he had one), but Tyrion himself is a convicted criminal with death penalty on his head (and that was even before he shot Tywin).
Although inheritance-by-murder can't be completely illegal, as Ramsay Bolton's recent history shows.

[The Mother of The Others]

Nope.   (to the question)

[kwvapor]

No running in the house, only walking the walk of fame opps, I mean shame.

If she's going down, she's going down in the red keep.

[genegirl]

Cersei will not run.  She has no place to go.  I think she will slide further into insanity.  I agree, she will be using religion to convince people she is a better person.

[thetitansbastard]

Assuming it even happens as scheduled, I think Cersei may be screwed in the trial whether or not Robert Strong slays his opponent.  It should be obvious that he is ill-conceived evil undead monster thing, which I don't think the Faith will care for too much.  I could see Cersei deciding to flee, but with a sheer lack of retainers it will be tough to make it that far in war-and-winter-ravaged Westeros.  Maybe she re-unites with Jaime trying to get to the Rock, idk

[kg1982]

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Why? I believe there were indications in ADWD that the Faith thought the accusations against Margaery were weak, since the accused had retracted their stories and the Kettleblack accused Cersei instead once they started torturing him.

Yes.  Margaery is probably innocent of the charges; that doesn't mean that she'll win her trial.  When the story says one thing is going to happen, I assume the other thing will happen.  Varys wants chaos in King's Landing; what better way to set the Lannisters and the Tyrells even more at odds than to have Margaery executed.  

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There is also a large Tyrell army in Kings Landing, which would make any move on Margaery a potential bloodbath. Mace Tyrell and Randyll Tarly will not accept a Walk of Shame or anything silly like that for Margaery.

Fageon has Storm's End and Euron is probably gunning for Oldtown; the Reach army isn't going to stay in King's Landing for very long.  Horn Hill seems fairly close to Oldtown considering Sam was going to rent a cart and bring Gilly and the baby there, so I'm assuming that Tarly will be going back to defend Horn Hill. Mace Tyrell will likely be dispatched to Storm's End and will go because he is a fool.  

As for a "silly" punishment, Cersei's quite horrific punishment was for a widowed woman who confessed to sleeping around after her husband died.  It wasn't for the more serious crimes that Cersei is accused of.  Generally the crimes that Margaery is accused of (adultery) are punishable by death.

[Humphrey Plantagenet]

Sand Snake No. 9, on 08 May 2012 - 06:18 PM, said:

Yipes! I think that it would be suicidal for Cersei to enter the Riverlands. Lannisters (and Freys) there are only safe when they're within castle walls because of the BWB and the wolves, and I'd guess the Blackfish and any number of barely pacified Riverland lords and Northern stragglers are in the vicinity to make trouble. I think that GRRM spent AFFC setting the Riverlands up for a huge backlash.

I think you’re completely right about that. And it’s what I’m hoping for!

I can see plenty of reasons for Cersei to try and escape, I can see her getting out of the City, but she’s got nothing but bad choices once she’s out of KL. Especially if she has Tommen with her. She can grab Tommen and run, and again I think she’ll be able to get out of KL…we’ve seen ( or heard about) it done a few times…but then what?

I’m hoping for another classic Cersei “I’ve made a huge mistake!” moment, where she grabs Tommen & runs and then tries to reach the Lannister support at Riverrun. And one way or another ends up as guest of honour at Red Wedding 2: Cat Stark Sends Her Regards.

Ok, that last part is a bit fanciful…but I do think Cersei will try and escape the Tyrells. Plus, with Arianne soon to be on hand to give a PoV to the politics of KL (with a cousin to report on the HS) I don’t think Cersei’s PoV has much to do at KL. So I’d like to see Cersei’s PoV reaction to the devastation of the Riverrlands, caused by her murdering Robert,  whilst she makes a desperate bid to reach her bannermen.

[Lyanna Stark]

kg1982, on 08 May 2012 - 10:47 PM, said:

Yes.  Margaery is probably innocent of the charges; that doesn't mean that she'll win her trial.  When the story says one thing is going to happen, I assume the other thing will happen.  Varys wants chaos in King's Landing; what better way to set the Lannisters and the Tyrells even more at odds than to have Margaery executed.  

Varys wants chaos, true, but Varys has no influence over the Faith. The new High Septon is an independent new power source that nobody had counted on, not even Varys. The High Septon is not stupid however and it would be disaster to proclaim Margaery guilty since it will spawn civil war more or less in Kings Landing. Remember too that Margaery, unlike Cersei, is popular among the smallfolk. The accusations against her were also clearly fabrications by Cersei's hand. Even if the examination showed Margaery having no maidenhead left (how can they tell this anyway? since at least one person notes horseriding could have the same effect, it's a non evidence), the accusations are quite obviously faked. The only one who still held on to his accusations was the Blue Bard, and he had been tortured until he lost his mind. The High Septon isn't gullible, he must have realised that the accusations of Cersei's were only intrigue to get Margaery to take the fall.

The Lannister forces are spent anyway with Kevan dead and Jaime missing, and I am not sure executing Margaery would even add to tensions, since Margaery is Tommen's queen and the Lannisters support Tommen, so I doubt they'd support an execution of his queen.

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Fageon has Storm's End and Euron is probably gunning for Oldtown; the Reach army isn't going to stay in King's Landing for very long.  Horn Hill seems fairly close to Oldtown considering Sam was going to rent a cart and bring Gilly and the baby there, so I'm assuming that Tarly will be going back to defend Horn Hill. Mace Tyrell will likely be dispatched to Storm's End and will go because he is a fool.  

The Redwyne fleet has left for the Reach, hasn't it? Cersei had it from Aurane Waters that Loras had taken Dragonstone so the fleet was free to move. That should give the Ironborn something to worry about.

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As for a "silly" punishment, Cersei's quite horrific punishment was for a widowed woman who confessed to sleeping around after her husband died.  It wasn't for the more serious crimes that Cersei is accused of.  Generally the crimes that Margaery is accused of (adultery) are punishable by death.

True, but it should be obvious to anyone who isn't thick as a plank that Cersei had it all fabricated. The new High Septon may be a fanatic, but he doesn't seem the least bit stupid.

[SeanF]

I just don't see any plausible way in which Margaery could be executed.  Even though she's facing trial, she's under the protection of Lord Randyll Tarly, the best general in Westeros, with a huge army at his back.. There's no way he'd say to the High Septon, "okay, you can go ahead and behead her now."

If Cersei could get back to Casterley Rock, she'd be very powerful in her own right.  The Lannisters still have plenty of gold with which to raise and equip their armies.  And, she is Tywin's lawful heir, given that Tyrion is a convicted traitor, and Jaime has renounced his inheritance.

[Lyanna Stark]

SeanF, on 09 May 2012 - 06:32 AM, said:

I just don't see any plausible way in which Margaery could be executed.  Even though she's facing trial, she's under the protection of Lord Randyll Tarly, the best general in Westeros, with a huge army at his back.. There's no way he'd say to the High Septon, "okay, you can go ahead and behead her now."

Another thing to keep in mind is a discrepancy. Myranda Royce says at the end of AFFC that Riverrun has fallen, but does not mention Dragonstone. Yet Aurane Waters comes and tells Cersei not long after that Dragonstone has been taken by the Tyrell/Lannister forces, and that Loras is gravely injured. In fact, he goes off on such a rant about the horrendous injuries all sorts of warning bells go off. First he's shot with three crossbow bolts, he gets hit by a mace and then gets boiling oil poured on him, yet he's not quite dead. This seems totally over the top.

So, where is Loras and the Tyrell forces that went to Dragonstone? I would not be surprised if they've headed to the Reach instead to help fight off the Ironborn. The Redwyne fleet has also been released.

We also see later that Aurane Waters is not to be trusted, since he takes all the ships and disappears from Kings Landing. Clearly he is not on Cersei's side, so whose side is he on? The Velaryons used to be Stannis' bannermen, but Aurane came and told Cersei about Loras. How does he know, and why was he sent, specifically? (This is totally aside from the crackpottery about a Loras - Aurane romance btw )

If all these other military reinforcements are already on their way to the Reach, it would put less pressure on Randyll Tarly to move out of Kings Landing. Mace Tyrell is Hand and Randyll Tarly is Justicar, meaning they are now also on the Small Council and less likely to move anywhere.

Edited by Lyanna Stark, 09 May 2012 - 06:41 AM.

[kg1982]

SeanF, on 09 May 2012 - 06:32 AM, said:

I just don't see any plausible way in which Margaery could be executed.  Even though she's facing trial, she's under the protection of Lord Randyll Tarly, the best general in Westeros, with a huge army at his back.. There's no way he'd say to the High Septon, "okay, you can go ahead and behead her now."

If Cersei could get back to Casterley Rock, she'd be very powerful in her own right.  The Lannisters still have plenty of gold with which to raise and equip their armies.  And, she is Tywin's lawful heir, given that Tyrion is a convicted traitor, and Jaime has renounced his inheritance.

Okay then..  It'll be a big surprise for you when it happens then.  Either Cersei or Margaery will lose her trial and we know that Cersei isn't going to be be killed before Book Seven.  I'm betting that she sticks around King's Landing and ends up reenacting the Mad King's desire to burn down the city.  Jaime kills her ala Mad King callback.

It just makes sense to me - There hasn't been a really shocking death in a few books and Margaery's would be a good one.  There are forces (Varys) for whom Margaery has no use other than as a pawn and who will probably have a path into the Faith soon (Tyene Sands).  The High Septon is a fanatic who will probably listen to charges that are less fake and doesn't care about Margaery's political pull.  Margaery chose the riskier route.

[SeanF]

Perhaps I will be shocked.  But, there are thousands of Tyrells in KL, plus the Smallfolk are on Margaery's side.

[Lyanna Stark]

kg1982, on 09 May 2012 - 06:47 AM, said:

It just makes sense to me - There hasn't been a really shocking death in a few books and Margaery's would be a good one.  There are forces (Varys) for whom Margaery has no use other than as a pawn and who will probably have a path into the Faith soon (Tyene Sands).  The High Septon is a fanatic who will probably listen to charges that are less fake and doesn't care about Margaery's political pull.  Margaery chose the riskier route.

"A few books" I guess you mean AFFC and ADWD? Disregarding Kevan and Pycelle, I guess? And UnDeath for Gregor Clegane. (Not counting Aemon Targaryen since he was old, and Quentyn since well, he was kinda dull.)

Why do you think Varys and Tyene Sand will automatically join forces btw? I don't recall it being hinted that they have any sort of interaction. The High Septon is a fanatic, but he also showed when Cersei restored the faith militant that he has a very practical and utilitarian side. If it suits his purposes, he can do whatever needs to be done. I am not sure he sees a possible riot and civil war in Kings Landing as something he'd like to have. Margaery is popular and the High Septon relied on popularity to gain his spot. He probably doesn't want to put that into competition with Margaery's.

[Pellaeon]

SeanF, on 09 May 2012 - 07:00 AM, said:

Perhaps I will be shocked.  But, there are thousands of Tyrells in KL, plus the Smallfolk are on Margaery's side.

The High Septon get support of the faith militia, fanatics who are willing to die for their faith, KL could be end in a gigantic fight between sparrows and Tyrell/smalfolk, Cersei and Tommen might escape in the trouble

[Humphrey Plantagenet]

Currawong, on 08 May 2012 - 06:41 PM, said:

Question: Might the Tyrells actually send her away, minus Tommen? Cersei certainly wouldn't leave herself without Tommen, but sending her alone to Casterly Rock under escort would leave Tommen and Myrcella in Tyrell hands, as a sort of surety for Cersei and Lannister good behaviour. It could be an interesting reverse of the original situation with Catelyn and her daughters.

That would make sense. They’d probably be keen to get Cersei as far away from Tommen as possible. She’d surely refuse to go without her son, but they may force her.
If she’s being forced to leave Tommen behind it could be another impetus for her to do something stupid.

I’m very suspicious of the High Sparrow and his resurgent Faith Militant. I imagine Cersei is even more so. Another good reason to get the hell out if KL. The Faith & the Tyrells are the two major power blocks in the city now. I'm looking forward to the trial, it will show us whether they are working together or on a collision course. The only way I can see the HS trying to execute Margaery is if he attempts a coup to setup a theocracy. (Which I think’s possible! http://asoiaf.wester...__fromsearch__1). But a very possible scenario is that the Tyrells & HS conspire together to legitimise each other’s claims/positions and completely sideline Cersei. Using a very public show trial to do so. Maybe as part of the scheme to keep control of Tommen they plan to send Cersei to the Rock. Cersei sees this, flips, grabs Tommen and runs.

[craig_o]

I can see her trying to ally with the faith (who else is left?) with disastrous consequences.

Nobody expects the Westerosi Inquisition!

[just an Other]

I don' think the Tyrells will be too keen on Cersei getting back to the Rock where she may get access to an army and unlimited funds. However, if she does, and takes Tommen with her it might spell the end of the Seven Singdoms as a single state.

[kwvapor]

craig_o, on 09 May 2012 - 10:36 AM, said:

I can see her trying to ally with the faith (who else is left?) with disastrous consequences.

Nobody expects the Westerosi Inquisition!

I agree, if I recall correctly, there are witnesses in the cells of the Red Keep.  It's not too late to use the Cersei charm on them.

Edited by Censored Wolf, 09 May 2012 - 10:50 AM.

[Deets]

Why is everyone so sure that Sir Robert Strong will win?  I've heard a lot of theories that the Faith's champion will be Sandor and that this fight is actually being built up to be Undead Gregor vs. Reborn Sandor, and seeing Sandor finish his brother off once and for all would be really awesome.  In any other book series, Sandor winning the final battle would be a given.  However, this is ASoIaF.

[ghost the direwolf]

run? really? that is so not her style . She will fight till the end. There is no middle ground when you play the Game of Throne. She might be the worse player but she is a player.