235 replies to this topic

[Babeldygob]

jlk7e, on 23 May 2012 - 12:23 PM, said:

When did Martin say that Stannis is the closest thing the series has to a real hero? Because that seems crazy to me. I don't hate Stannis, and I don't think he's a villain (as Roose obviously is). He's an interesting character towards whom I have very ambivalent feelings. But he murdered his brother and was strongly considering murdering his nephew. He's also a humorless prig and a terrible politician. The fact that he's the only one who recognizes the threat of the Others is a great irony of the series, not an indication that Stannis is the hero of the story.

I'm still not sure Stannis knew Melisandre would kill his brother in the night. Stannis says to Davos he came here because Melisandre saw that he would win a great victory and win the best part of Renly's army. He's talking to Davos as if he truly does not know what happened to him, but that he has a suspicion. Indeed the Edric Storm part is Stannis going bad. We're probably getting more of that, I think.

If you think he's humorless, then you're wrong. It's not because he never laughs he has no humor. He just doesn't laugh at his own jokes and other people take him too seriously to do it. I suggest you read this thread: http://asoiaf.wester...stannis-humor/. Stannis may be hard to love, but a terrible politician? I think not. The people in his service do what they're told and everyone takes him seriously. He also knew about Joffrey being a bastard without getting killed like Jon Arryn and Ned Stark. Sure, he's not as cunning as Tyrion or Littlefinger, but who is?

A Bong of Ice and Fire, on 23 May 2012 - 12:38 PM, said:

It's a well tought out theory, but too ridiculous to take seriously. The Night's King story is just an old fairy tale. Of course GRRM can do whatever he wants with his tale and make it as ridiculous as he wants to, but I think he's too good of a writer to go down such a silly road.

Are we reading the the same books? Dragons and shadowbabies being born, shadows of the dead dancing in a tent, fiery ladders, The Wall, Ghosts in the Winterfell crypts, Others, Seeing the future in the fire, seeing the past through a tree, becoming a tree, skinchanging, dragonglass, facechanging, undying people, undead people, etc... I don't see how that would be so ridiculous. There are countless tales about the Nightfort in the books: The Rat Cook, The Night's King and whatnot. The Night' King tales seems to be the most 'realistic' one. Why have tremendous amounts of tales about the Nightfort, a place that i pretty much built around a Weirwood tree, with a moving weirwood door in a secret passage if it doesn't have any other signifance? Why seat Stannis there? The least intact castle of all of them?

Edited by Babeldygob, 23 May 2012 - 01:30 PM.

[The Last Reyne]

Babeldygob, on 23 May 2012 - 01:27 PM, said:

I'm still not sure Stannis knew Melisandre would kill his brother in the night. Stannis says to Davos he came here because Melisandre saw that he would win a great victory and win the best part of Renly's army. He's talking to Davos as if he truly does not know what happened to him, but that he has a suspicion.

If he did not know then it was because he did not want to know.

[A Bong of Ice and Fire]

Babeldygob, on 23 May 2012 - 01:27 PM, said:

I'm still not sure Stannis knew Melisandre would kill his brother in the night. Stannis says to Davos he came here because Melisandre saw that he would win a great victory and win the best part of Renly's army. He's talking to Davos as if he truly does not know what happened to him, but that he has a suspicion. Indeed the Edric Storm part is Stannis going bad. We're probably getting more of that, I think. If you think he's humorless, then you're wrong. It's not because he never laughs he has no humor. He just doesn't laugh at his own jokes and other people take him too seriously to do it. I suggest you read this thread: http://asoiaf.wester...stannis-humor/. Stannis may be hard to love, but a terrible politician? I think not. The people in his service do what they're told and everyone takes him seriously. He also knew about Joffrey being a bastard without getting killed like Jon Arryn and Ned Stark. Sure, he's not as cunning as Tyrion or Littlefinger, but who is? Are we reading the the same books? Dragons and shadowbabies being born, shadows of the dead dancing in a tent, fiery ladders, The Wall, Ghosts in the Winterfell crypts, Others, Seeing the future in the fire, seeing the past through a tree, becoming a tree, skinchanging, dragonglass, facechanging, undying people, undead people, etc... I don't see how that would be so ridiculous. There are countless tales about the Nightfort in the books: The Rat Cook, The Night's King and whatnot. The Night' King tales seems to be the most 'realistic' one. Why have tremendous amounts of tales about the Nightfort, a place that i pretty much built around a Weirwood tree, with a moving weirwood door in a secret passage if it doesn't have any other signifance? Why seat Stannis there? The least intact castle of all of them?

Well, you could be right.  Omniscient tree-people are certainly ridiculous, too.

Certainly a good case is made for this theory.  But I still thinks it's silly if the series starts getting too "fantastical".  I like the whole "game of thrones" motif with the magic & fantasy stuff being more in the background.

I'm afraid that the last 2 books will take us more down cliched fantasy paths.  But we'll see.

Also I really like Stannis as a character and a King and don't want to see him become some silly evil Dark Lord.

[Harland Flint]

Babeldygob, on 23 May 2012 - 12:18 PM, said:

How would she burn Stannis? Even if she wanted to, she can't force him to die by fire.

I imagine she would find a way to force him into a bonfire, at sword point if need be.
Mel and the Red God are revered by many of Stannis' southern knights. If Stannis looses the Battle of Ice, his army would limp back to the wall, highly demoralised. Mel could turn Stannis's knights against him (especially if she removes the glamour from Lightbringer), and employ her own men, depending on the aftermath of Jon's assassination.

[Stark@heart]

I think Mel won't be able to get to Jon to give him the Kiss of Rhloor, Thank the Gods.

Then a dying or probably like Catelyn, a long dead Stannis is brought back to the Wall.  I think Mel will Kiss him.  The baby burning/Kings Blood ritual is really for raising the "Stone Dragon" she keeps harping about.  

How bout this.  After Mel re-ignites the long dead Stannis everyone is freaked out, so again Mel has to make the circumstances fit the prophecy and that's when the baby gets it.

So her fake AA will have a fake dragon to go with his fake sword and people will keep buying her bullshit.

[jlk7e]

Babeldygob, on 23 May 2012 - 01:27 PM, said:

I'm still not sure Stannis knew Melisandre would kill his brother in the night. Stannis says to Davos he came here because Melisandre saw that he would win a great victory and win the best part of Renly's army. He's talking to Davos as if he truly does not know what happened to him, but that he has a suspicion. Indeed the Edric Storm part is Stannis going bad. We're probably getting more of that, I think. If you think he's humorless, then you're wrong. It's not because he never laughs he has no humor. He just doesn't laugh at his own jokes and other people take him too seriously to do it. I suggest you read this thread: http://asoiaf.wester...stannis-humor/. Stannis may be hard to love, but a terrible politician? I think not. The people in his service do what they're told and everyone takes him seriously. He also knew about Joffrey being a bastard without getting killed like Jon Arryn and Ned Stark. Sure, he's not as cunning as Tyrion or Littlefinger, but who is?

Stannis is willfully ignorant about how Renly's death occurred.  He certainly knows well enough what the shadow baby will do when he sends Davos off with Melisandre to kill Cortnay Penrose.

As far as whether Stannis is humorless, you're right that he has a certain grim sense of humor.  He certainly never laughs at anyone else's jokes, and he takes himself completely seriously - he can laugh at other people, but not at himself.

As far as being a good politician, having your dependents obey you is not what makes you a good politician.  The problem with Stannis is that he can't really recognize relationships between equals, and he's inflexible.  His brother wins over half the kingdom largely by force of personality, with no legitimate claim to the throne.  Stannis is barely able to hold together his own vassals in the Narrow Sea, despite having the much better claim.  His decision to wait to claim the throne is arguably responsible for both Renly's claim and Robb Stark's proclamation as King in the North.  He was so unpopular with his own army at the Blackwater that half of them defected when the Tyrells arrived.  He constantly makes enemies by persecuting other people's religion.  He's arrogant and difficult to work with.  He's a good master for those, like Davos, who submit fully to him.  But he's not good at winning the allegiance of people not already devoted to him.  Besides Baratheon bannermen, the only significant family in the south that he got the allegiance of was that of his own wife, which didn't even side with him until after Renly's death.  In the North, his purported allies include the Karstarks, who are playing him false, and the Umbers, who are playing both sides.  His relationship with the Mountain Clans is forever on the verge of collapsing, and the Mormonts are obviously playing their own game.

I guess Stannis isn't the worst politician.  In the north, in particular, he's made some smart decisions, and he has the very good trait of being willing to listen to good advice.  But he certainly has some serious flaws.

[Babeldygob]

A Bong of Ice and Fire, on 24 May 2012 - 02:41 AM, said:

Well, you could be right. Omniscient tree-people are certainly ridiculous, too. Certainly a good case is made for this theory. But I still thinks it's silly if the series starts getting too "fantastical". I like the whole "game of thrones" motif with the magic & fantasy stuff being more in the background. I'm afraid that the last 2 books will take us more down cliched fantasy paths. But we'll see. Also I really like Stannis as a character and a King and don't want to see him become some silly evil Dark Lord.

Well, you're right. But would Stannis is this case really be a silly Dark Lord? I'd consider it great writing if GRRM manages to make him go from good person that protects the realm to bad person that fights to punish the realm.

jlk7e, on 24 May 2012 - 08:51 AM, said:

As far as being a good politician, having your dependents obey you is not what makes you a good politician. The problem with Stannis is that he can't really recognize relationships between equals, and he's inflexible. His brother wins over half the kingdom largely by force of personality, with no legitimate claim to the throne. Stannis is barely able to hold together his own vassals in the Narrow Sea, despite having the much better claim. His decision to wait to claim the throne is arguably responsible for both Renly's claim and Robb Stark's proclamation as King in the North. He was so unpopular with his own army at the Blackwater that half of them defected when the Tyrells arrived. He constantly makes enemies by persecuting other people's religion. He's arrogant and difficult to work with. He's a good master for those, like Davos, who submit fully to him. But he's not good at winning the allegiance of people not already devoted to him. Besides Baratheon bannermen, the only significant family in the south that he got the allegiance of was that of his own wife, which didn't even side with him until after Renly's death. In the North, his purported allies include the Karstarks, who are playing him false, and the Umbers, who are playing both sides. His relationship with the Mountain Clans is forever on the verge of collapsing, and the Mormonts are obviously playing their own game. I guess Stannis isn't the worst politician. In the north, in particular, he's made some smart decisions, and he has the very good trait of being willing to listen to good advice. But he certainly has some serious flaws.

You're right. We'll have to se eif he can keep those relationships he has now with the Northern Lords, which I think he won't.

[Harland Flint]

On a slightly related note, it hit me that if Kings Blood is required for one of Mel's rituals, but when Mance's "son" turns out to be Gilly's son, Mel will have to use Shireen instead.

Now that might make a "Stone Dragon"

[Babeldygob]

Harland Flint, on 25 May 2012 - 09:11 PM, said:

On a slightly related note, it hit me that if Kings Blood is required for one of Mel's rituals, but when Mance's "son" turns out to be Gilly's son, Mel will have to use Shireen instead.

Now that might make a "Stone Dragon"

Would she dare to do that? What would Stannis'reaction be? It's also interesting because Shireen's dream of her being eaten by a dragon fits into that theory. She gets sacrificed(eaten) for(by) a dragon.

Edited by Babeldygob, 29 May 2012 - 12:21 PM.

[Ciazio]

Harland Flint, on 25 May 2012 - 09:11 PM, said:

On a slightly related note, it hit me that if Kings Blood is required for one of Mel's rituals, but when Mance's "son" turns out to be Gilly's son, Mel will have to use Shireen instead.

Now that might make a "Stone Dragon"

Yeah! Never thought about it.

Having Shireen greyscale (an illness that caused part of her skin to become stone-like) that could work very fine. Moreover, we know from the wildlings that Shireen is still sick: they believe that one cannot ever heal from greyscale...

This theory would even fit with Jon: he firstly had the idea to switch the two babies... This could be the last drop that cause Stannis to decide to "kill everyone who stands in front of him", thus turning him into the Night's King, allied with the Others to bring his justice on the Seven Kingdoms.

Ciazio

[MtnLion]

MMMmm, to fit the prophesies I think Stannis would eventually become the victor and actually be seated on the Iron Throne when Daenerys arrives in Westeros.  Dany would then discredit Stannis' claim to be AA, and Aegon would come forward.  Stannis and Melisandre retreat to the Night Fort and concoct the plan to raise the dragon using king's blood, and I love the Shireen angle on this.  Meanwhile Dany discovers and exposes that Aegon is not an heir to the Iron Throne.  Then we have the great stone beast breathing shadow (Mel's handiwork, for sure) fire, where Dany manages to expose it for some kind of magicky lie.  In the end I certainly see a brooding Stannis and Melisandre becoming the new Night's King at the Night Fort.

[Silent_Hero]

I remember reading once that Melisandre saw Stannis sitting on the Iron Throne, I hope he becomes someones Hand as only the Hand and the King can sit on the Throne. Hopefully Stannis becomes Jon or Danys Hand.

[TheDarkOne]

I hate this theory. Absolutely loathe it.
The main reason is...it makes perfect sense and I like Stannis and don't want this to happen.

Stannis turning bad and leading the others would be sweet, it would be like when Jean Luc Picard was abducted by the Borg and then they had cool strategies to use against the Federation.
Stannis becomes the perfect foil for Dany. Finally a definitive protagonist and antagonist. The board clears for those two players, and away we go. Man v Woman. Ice v Fire.
It would be sick if Stannis got some kind of extra power like being able to shoot ice out his hands and freeze people.

[StannisandDaeny]

I think there's just been a breakthrough in this theory with Melisandre's little speech of 'you will betray everyone...' in the show which makes no sense from any point of view except this one. Gutted about it, but I'm now convinced Stannis is in fact going to become the Night's King and become Daeny's ultimate enemy where the outcome I preferred was actually that these two characters would make peace...

Edited by StannisandDaeny, 04 June 2012 - 01:17 PM.

[Babeldygob]

StannisandDaeny, on 04 June 2012 - 01:17 PM, said:

I think there's just been a breakthrough in this theory with Melisandre's little speech of 'you will betray everyone...' in the show which makes no sense from any point of view except this one. Gutted about it, but I'm now convinced Stannis is in fact going to become the Night's King and become Daeny's ultimate enemy where the outcome I preferred was actually that these two characters would make peace...

I was thinking this too when I heard that line. The main show writers know the final major plot outcome of the books and this would be a major plotline.

[TheLodger]

I think this theory works for more than a few reasons.


I am not all that vexed as to how Jon fits in with it.  First, I'm not convinced that Jon is dead.  If he is, I'm positive he will be brought back to life.  I think the popular theory about his parents indicates that he is one of the three heads of the dragon.  I think the dragon is there to fight the others, led by the Night King.

Love the theory.

[King Doug]

I like your theory, well thought out and argued. However, I do not agree. For two main reasons (and one crackpot reason even though I don't think it's crackpot)...

1.) The Night's King is Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. You addressed this, but the Watch assassinated one leader because they thought he was taking them into a war they had no part in.

2.) The Night's King is a Stark. Old Nan said it, and she is right about EVERYTHING.

Crackpot time.....Stannis can't be the Night's King, because the Night's King is still alive, sort of. He is alive and well as Coldhands.

[Harland Flint]

I also thought when I saw the latest episode that "Stannis will betray everyone" could indicate a turn to the Others
I went back and had a re-read of your OP and had a few small thoughts to add,

Babeldygob, on 10 May 2012 - 11:41 AM, said:

He will somehow make a pact with the Others, convinced of their power. It might be that all The Others need to start their rampage on humanity is a leader.

A logical thing for Stannis to do would be to open the Wall to the Others. Coldhands can't pass the magic of the wall, but non-magical folks like Bran & Sam can. It would make sense if the Others offered Stannis the power of Ice in return for him allowing them to pass the Wall. This would tie in with your theories about Stannis getting involved with the NW, as their oaths seem important to keeping the magic of the Wall alive.

Babeldygob, on 10 May 2012 - 11:41 AM, said:

There's possible foreshadowing of this in the fact that Shireen has greyscale and the Wildlings are all like WTF THIS KID CARRIES A CURSE. It might be foreshadowing in how Stannis might father other children to an 'Ice woman' that will be 'terrible abominations' like Old Nan says it.

You could say that Stannis has already fathered children with an Ice Maiden (Selyse), and birthed horrors (Sorry Shireen, but you and those Shadow Babies)

Edited by Harland Flint, 05 June 2012 - 07:07 AM.

[Lord Varys]

Stannis does not want the crown more than anything else. He won't sell out his people, even if they were to reject him again and again (which they don't do, obviously, since right now 5,000 Northmen have joined his cause).

If Stannis is going to survive the coming battle, his star is actually about to rise again. He has now plenty of gold, and the chance to hire sellswords - even Braavos itself might enter the war on his side. Manderly and Davos are about to deliver Rickon Stark to him. If the Battle of Winterfell is a decisive victory for him (i.e. if the Boltons don't get away, or if most of their bannermen, say, all the Northern Lords but Lady Dustin, abandon him), the North will effectively be his kingdom.

Since Stannis went north in the first place to fight the real war (i.e. the War against the Others) he won't march south in the near future. He will turn back to the Wall to deal with the Others. Continuing his campaign to conquer Westeros in the thick of winter with the Others in his rear would be completely stupid. Stannis only marched south to make sure that his enemies in the North would not come for him at the Wall!

Also, neither Aegon nor whoever is about to be in charge of King Tommen's administration will try to march north in the thick of winter, either. Aegon (possibly with the aid of Dorne) will try to take King's Landing. That will end this war. Aegon will become the new King on the Iron Throne. If there is any Lannister/Tyrell opposition left he and his allies will march into the Reach or lay siege to Casterly Rock before they'll march north.

[Ciazio]

King Doug, on 04 June 2012 - 10:01 PM, said:

1.) The Night's King is Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. You addressed this, but the Watch assassinated one leader because they thought he was taking them into a war they had no part in.

2.) The Night's King is a Stark. Old Nan said it, and she is right about EVERYTHING.

1) When Mormont died Stannis was about to appoint a new LC (Sam then convinced the NW to elect Jon), why souldn't him appoint himself as LC now that Jon is "dead" and the NW divided into two factions?

2) The Night's King WAS a Stark, Old Nan never said that he WILL be a Stark. So Old Nan is still right about everything :-)

Cheers