THE BASTARD'S LETTER

[Sword Of Mid Afternoon]

Actually, yes. He sends the letter to Deepwood Motte that Asha reads, after he's taken Moat Cailin.

Did he send the letter to Catelyn as well, or did that come from Roose? I should think it must've come from Ramsay, what with Roose being occupied in the South. Can't recollect with certainty.

[WetHair]

I don't think he sent a letter to Catelyn...................

I already posted this in the past somewhereorother but recycling is a fine thing and is probably practiced to a degree in the majority of countries that posters hail from. It is slightly off topic but may have a huge impact on who wrote the letter, if not why.

In “Melisandre” (hard copy pg 418) Mel asks Mance to save Jon’s sister, a girl in grey on a dying horse. She describes the location that she sees in her flames and Mance deduces that she is around Long Lake staying away from the kingsroad. Before they have any more conversation about her whatsoever the horn is blown announcing rangers returning and she leaves. Later she and Jon come back together; there has been no further talk between her and Mance but at this point he tells her that he needs spearwives to help him carry out a ploy he has to save “Arya”. “I will need horses. Half a dozen good ones. And this is nothing I can do alone. Some of the spearwives penned up at Mole’s Town should serve. Women would be best for this. The girl’s more like to trust them, and they will help me carry off a certain ploy I have in mind.”

In “Jon”, (pg. 472) Mance enlarges on this and says the spearwives need to be young and pretty and he asked for them by name each, obviously, picked for a different task. By then, Mance and Mel may have certainly talked further.

The point is that Mance obviously knew as far back as his first conversation with Mel that regardless of where Arya was or wasn’t (and, at this point, as far as Mel knew she really was on a dying horse around Long Lake) he needed to go to Winterfell and put his “ploy” into action.

That seems to support the letter writer as Mance theory. (Though personally it sound soooooooooooooo much like Ramsay I think it was written by him.)

[kwvapor]

@WetHair

Definitely not OT. That is a nice catch, it's as I was saying they knew where to find the girl but they went elsewhere for this "ploy." It just cast more mystery upon the circumstances of the letter. I'm sure Mance's "ploy" wasn't to get caged up in Winterfell.

[bemused]

Mance had to travel through the north looking for the girl..as a singer ( and entourage ) ,he had every opportunity to ask for news here and there and learn of the plan to have the wedding at Winterfell.

The "ploy" may indeed be needed only to rescue Arya , since Mel doesn't know the "when" of her vision , even if it had been Arya..she may have been escaping within a week , a month , six months.

[DragonSpawn]

I was reading this thread the other day and went back to the chapter where Mance mentions his ploy... thinking it may be some secret mission... But i think the 'ploy' was just his usual "singer" alter ego and attaching himself to a party entering Winterfell... the spearwives he needed for serving girls so they could have more freedom within Winterfell... and they didn't know when the grey girl would be riding up to the Wall so it makes sense to go where she was reported to be - in Winterfell - which is where Stannis says he is marching...

The language used in the letter was strange... lots and lots of parallels with wildling language... there was a letter sent already ... the pink letter part 1... which was sealed with a button of pink wax... announcing the marriage of Ramsay and Arya... while the second pink letter was sealed with a smear of pink wax... one was written in blood the other in ink... Mance Rayder is referred to by name too in the letter which was interesting... and lots of reqeusts for Jon to "come and see" or "come and get him". Which of course Jon has no interest in... he just wants Ramsay to answer for his crimes... so it's a bit of a strange request...

Clydas delivers both letters - Jon scrunches up the first but no indication of what happened to it after... Clydas could have used some of the wax from the first letter to seal the second... he also worked with Chett for some time tending the ravens who was involved in the previous mutiny... his father worked as a leech farmer and the biggest buyer of leeches was probably Roose Bolton... and Melisandre...

If it was Mance writing the letter then worth bearing in mind he was Melisandres slave... whether he was still wearing the ruby when he went south i don't know...

The letter appears hastily written but i'm still inclined to believe it is Ramsays letter. It could be an inside Job but difficult to get all those facts straight... for this reason it either falls to Melisandre, Mance Rayder, Bloodraven and Bran or Ramsay...

The reason i still believe it's Ramsay is because ... Stannis burned the statues of the 7 in the name of Rhollor... it therefore seems fitting that on the 7th day of battle he loses... I also see a savage game of Monsters and Maidens being played between Ramsay, (Val / Jeyne / Asha) with Jon / Theon coming to the rescue... it was Mels idea to send Mance south to recapture 'Arya' she encouraged the burning of the 7 so sending 7 wildings south is not going to end well... i also believe Mance has a 'price' to pay for attacking the Wall... and being so bold about how strong the wildlings are and seeking to attack the Wall... and grave robbing... some lessons in 'humility' are required.

The only other angle i might consider is Ser Alliser Thorne being taken into Bran / Bloodravens service ... Still dont know what to make of Ser Alliser though tbh

[Maxpey]

I think that Ramsey wrote the letter in a fit of rage/panic after Theon escaped with Arya. He most likely obtained the information about Mance from torturing one of the spearwives. In my view, the letter was an attempt to blackmail Jon into turning over valuable "hostages" by threatening to expose him as a liar to the NW.

[Ser Elvin of Clymer]

Hi, My first post,

I'm not sure I am totally behind these thoughts, but they certainly add some other possibilities.

At least 1 motive for sending the letter to Jon, to get him to Winterfell, could be the resurfacing of Robb's Will and the speculation that he made Jon a Stark and heir. If Ramsay discovered that, he would specifically need to remove Jon to strengthen his claim.

I never really liked the familiarity that "Ramsay" shows Jon in the letter showed.

How does Ramsay know much about Jon?

From Stannis, Theon or Jeyne being captured and tortured?

Why would he be able to provoke Jon, know which buttons to press etc.

A second thought is why we discount Theon as being a possible contributor to writing the letter, he actually connects all the letter's info: Fake Arya, Ramsay's personality, he knows Jon, makes it to Stannis's camp, met the Spearwives; better than Ramsay, informed by actual knowledge in his POVs.

I view Theon as fractured and though he was finding some redemption when we last read him, could he slip back into full Reek mode or why not take on a Ramsay personality, in some ways replicating Ramsay's Reek switcheroo that tricked him originally.

Or, Stannis had some foresight and tells someone he might appear to have died but that it would be fake, if Mel hatched a plot needing to trick Jon to Winterfell (to fulfill some vision she had) why wouldn't Stannis (who normally isn't prone to trickery) use Theon to inform the content of a letter that hits all the right notes to send Jon running home.

I'm in the middle of an AFFC re-read now so I haven't recently read DWD (soon) & some things are feeling vague, I can't remember Ramsay's wedding invitation to Castle Black or its tone, or similarities to the final letter.

I don't think I noticed its importance on the 1st read.

During this re-read of AFFC, I had forgotten Cersei's little plot of getting a Kettleblack assassination attempt on Jon, if I remember correctly that gets blown up when the Septons take over, but could parts have been put in motion, or a raven sent to Roose to set that in motion?

All that and I still feel its Ramsay's letter, BUT in saying that I realize, my view of Ramsay is entirely formed by Theon's POVs, meaning the tone of the letter- that strongly resembles Ramsay is how Theon views him- like Cersei as viewed by Jamie and Tyrion, 2 totally different view points and aspects of her personality rise up for each of them. Still totally think Ramsay is the worst.

[Theo1]

I subscribe to the Mance wrote the letter camp. But, the last post makes an interesting point about Theon as a potential contributor to the letter. I do not say I am a believer in this, but from the WoW reveal chapter Theon uses similar language to the letter when he thinks "he wants his Reek back" in the conversation with Stannis. What is odd about the thought is that the text says he smiled as he thought those words. The fuck??? Anyone have any thoughts on this?

[kwvapor]

You guys are right, we actually brushed Theon aside, as if, it's impossible.

What smile are you referring to? This one?

Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths. They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek." Theon's laugh was half a titter, half a whimper. "Lord Ramsay is the one Your Grace should fear."

I'm not sure this clues us in on anything. It's definitely the language from the letter but what about the other language. Eat your heart etc... I don't see Theon writing that.

[Ser Elvin of Clymer]

Also just knowing GRRMs style, Theon's arc could be on pace to be even more tragic & frustratingly deserving,

my memory of reading about his escape was very satisfying, like seeing Arya or Sansa get out of their respective crap-fests,

Then I remembered how much he sucked, not so long ago,

and I feel his direction in the future is kind of a wildcard.

[redriver]

The main point against Theon being the sender is that he does not know Abel is Mance.

[Theo1]

I was wrong about the smile. I guess my mind's eye had the wimper as a sort of sad tragic smile. I do not think Theon wrote the letter, but may have been part of it. The language is similar, and thinkingthe phrase provokes the reaction. It does seem that there was interaction between Mance, the washerwoman and Theon. Could Theon have been a person to get Mance to the rookery? Could he have written the note dictating for Mance? Hell, I don't know, but I would love to hear others weigh in on this on both sides.

[Ser Elvin of Clymer]

I'm not sure I imagine Theon as the sender, but I think he has more of the necessary information (at least as written, non speculative) involved in the letter than anyone else, he knows both Jon and Ramsay pretty intimately, he knows Jeyne, he is around the Bolton's during some of their planning, he knows Winterfell, he arrived in Stannis's Camp (which can connect him to Val, Mance's baby etc.), freed by the spearwives, he knows who Reek is (and Stannis shouldn't, and how would Mance have viewed Reek, probably not as a successful impersonation of Ramsay without someones help.)

The only thing he might not be privy to is the Red Witch, but Melisandra's reputation has been preceding her for awhile.

I still reach for why would the letter be written, what benefit would it generate for the sender.

For Ramsay, did he feel the Nights Watch supported Stannis to much and would interfere in the North?

Jon is a competitor for his seat?

He tortured Stannis's people and finds out Castle Black is where Theon/Jeyne etc. is escaping to.

Anger at being tricked?

For me, the Theon thing is that we have viewed Ramsay from Theon's unreliable perspective, and second hand from Roose and others. The personalities change in the POVs: for example - Jamie is so smug as viewed by Ned or Catelyn, but when we see him in Brienne's later POVs he becomes something different, mirrored in his own POVs, sympathetic, different parts rise to the top. Ramsay was Theon's master/owner/torturer - a very special kind of relationship.

Would Stannis, Melisandra or Mance view Ramsay in the way that Theon does, could they write a letter like Ramsay sounds?

Melisandra could be a wildcard because who knows what she saw in a vision, and which plans she could set in motion, and she could replicate something she saw as opposed to imitating it.

The Ramsay letter is exactly like "his personality", over the top, violent and insulting, my doubt is based on gaining that perspective from Theon and possibly have replaced the gaps in the actual definitive information given in the letter by saying he tortured Mance and got the information from him, but Mance doesn't know all of the things in the letter either (though he definitely knows "the Bastard button" to push with Jon) specifically, did he know Arya was fake?

[Guest]

Was Ramsay ever a POV for us? We only have 2 POV in the area and that is Theon and Asha. Maybe I am confused by your statement. I understand your reaction as a reader to the letter would have greater value if it was written by Ramsei and not faked. I am just exploring the options to gain some insight into the letter.

I mean that since our only POV escaped, the letter is the natural way to show us Ramsay's reaction after the fact. I suppose we could still see what Ramsay is up to via Theon at a later point in TWoW, but at the end of ADWD, we had no other window into Ramsay's plans going to hell other than through a letter.

[Sword Of Mid Afternoon]

At least 1 motive for sending the letter to Jon, to get him to Winterfell, could be the resurfacing of Robb's Will and the speculation that he made Jon a Stark and heir. If Ramsay discovered that, he would specifically need to remove Jon to strengthen his claim.

Welcome to the forum.

I am very much of the same opinion. Surprisingly not many people are share our opinion. I can't wait to see what happens when Mormont & Galbart Glover re-surface with Robb's decree legitimizing Jon Snow & naming him heir. Most folks believe that storyline is ended... some even said they don't think Robb ever actually named Jon his heir. I say there's no doubt that Robb named Jon heir. Galbart Glover -with help from Manderly's & Robett of course - is one of the few remaining Northern lords who would command respect and rally the North against the Bolton/Frey alliance

Provided Jon is not dead, I can only pray he isn't as thick-headed with Robb's decree as he was when Stannis offered to legitimize him and name him Warden of the North (not to mention continue a family line that has existed unbroken since the Dawn Age.)

----

By second-approximation analysis, I can say the letter was Ramsay's. Not quite a straight line computation, but a very high degree of probability.

[BoldAsYouPlease]

I'm not sure I imagine Theon as the sender, but I think he has more of the necessary information (at least as written, non speculative) involved in the letter than anyone else, he knows both Jon and Ramsay pretty intimately, he knows Jeyne, he is around the Bolton's during some of their planning, he knows Winterfell, he arrived in Stannis's Camp (which can connect him to Val, Mance's baby etc.), freed by the spearwives, he knows who Reek is (and Stannis shouldn't, and how would Mance have viewed Reek, probably not as a successful impersonation of Ramsay without someones help.)

The only thing he might not be privy to is the Red Witch, but Melisandra's reputation has been preceding her for awhile.

I still reach for why would the letter be written, what benefit would it generate for the sender.

For Ramsay, did he feel the Nights Watch supported Stannis to much and would interfere in the North?

Jon is a competitor for his seat?

He tortured Stannis's people and finds out Castle Black is where Theon/Jeyne etc. is escaping to.

Anger at being tricked?

For me, the Theon thing is that we have viewed Ramsay from Theon's unreliable perspective, and second hand from Roose and others. The personalities change in the POVs: for example - Jamie is so smug as viewed by Ned or Catelyn, but when we see him in Brienne's later POVs he becomes something different, mirrored in his own POVs, sympathetic, different parts rise to the top. Ramsay was Theon's master/owner/torturer - a very special kind of relationship.

Would Stannis, Melisandra or Mance view Ramsay in the way that Theon does, could they write a letter like Ramsay sounds?

Melisandra could be a wildcard because who knows what she saw in a vision, and which plans she could set in motion, and she could replicate something she saw as opposed to imitating it.

The Ramsay letter is exactly like "his personality", over the top, violent and insulting, my doubt is based on gaining that perspective from Theon and possibly have replaced the gaps in the actual definitive information given in the letter by saying he tortured Mance and got the information from him, but Mance doesn't know all of the things in the letter either (though he definitely knows "the Bastard button" to push with Jon) specifically, did he know Arya was fake?

Mance Rayder has been to Winterfell before - most recently for King Robert's visit. He saw Arya enter the Great Hall with her brothers and sisters at the greeting feast because, as he told Jon, he was sitting at the back of the hall. He might even have seen Jeyne Poole and she would not have been seated at the head table with the Stark children.The events in ADwD are only a few years later - the odds are Mance knows that Ramsay's bride is not Arya.

It's a very good point that the language in the letter is so close to Theon's own. The thought that Reek belongs to Ramsay just as Ramsay belongs to Reek is Theon's. Ramsay himself has had a previous Reek and left to his own devices he'll probably create several more. Theon certainly knows about Jon's resentment over being a bastard - it's mentioned in one of the Theon POV chapters. Even the freeriders in Winterfell are aware of Stannis' red witch - Ramsay tosses one off the wall for saying she might be keeping Stannis' forces warm. Theon surely has heard of her in Winterfell, if not earlier with Robb in the Riverlands. But he shouldn't know that Abel is Mance Rayder and I'm not able to get past that on the Theon trail.

If you combined Theon with Melisandre or Theon with Mance, you'd have someone who knows everything in the letter and would use the language in it. But that doesn't seem to make any sense.

I'm still leaning toward the idea that Mance wrote the letter. Ramsay has no reason to believe that Theon would go to the Wall - he of all people knows that Theon is believed to have killed Jon's brothers and knows Theon could expect nothing but death at Jon's hands. Further, why would Ramsay expect Jon or anyone else at Castle Black to know who "my Reek" is? But for Mance, the mention would simply be another piece of misdirection. But there are problems with Mance as the writer, too. I'm stumped.

[kwvapor]

I'm stumped.

You bring up a lot of good points, thanks. I like how you reasoned it out that Ramsay knows Reek wouldn't head to the Wall because of Reek's sacking of Winterfell.

Robb's will, if resurfaced, would pit Stannis against Jon and they both live on the Wall. That would be interesting.

I'm stumped as well but I am certain that the mystery behind the letter happened due to a chain of events. Without more information, it's probably impossible to find the right answer as to: who what when and why.

[Ser Elvin of Clymer]

Definitely agree with those points BoldAsYouPlease, the only possibility of any people knowing Reek at the Wall, is that the letter writer thinks they already arrived - but "Reek" still wouldn't necessarily make sense to them, though Theon would.

However, that could also be Ramsay threatening Theon through the letter, rather than expecting anyone else to know who it is, maybe even attempting to establish control again.

So many missing pieces for sure!

I am just starting my re-read DWD, so I should be refreshed soon.

Just done reading the Sixskins prologue and I can't see any reason to include that perspective unless it comes into play for Jon's situation.

Also,

Can anyone help remind me,

either in the most recent WoW preview chapter, or one of Stannis's or Asha's POV's in DWD. They have some discussions about the ravens, we learn about the castle to castle aspect of the ravens and I can't remember how it fit into the overall story but I felt like maybe it could be leading us towards who sent the letter. I also feel vague on that part with Stannis saying you might hear I've died, but its not true (or part of M's plans, AA rebirth?).

If anybody can freshen those parts up for me, that would be great.

I think something else I've been overlooking a little is the intent of the letter and the result (Jon deciding to march on Winterfell) are not the same, I've been sort of reading into it as if the goal was to get him down there, which may not truly be the case.

[DragonSpawn]

It was the hooded assassin in Winterfell! :D

[Ser Elvin of Clymer]

Another ?

If Ramsay wrote the letter, and we assume some of the details are true, does that mean Roose is out of the picture somehow?

Would Ramsay be given the job of writing something like that (unless Roose didn't want to seem to be the writer, and covered it by having Ramsay do it, or its a "It's your mess" kind of thing), if Roose were around I would generally expect a subtler touch.

Roose is definitely in charge in the North (if alive and not captured), not Ramsay. How is Ramsay going to be flying off all the time w/ Roose's demeanor. Is Roose going to be ignorant of Ramsay's actions? Its one thing being crazy in Winterfell during a seige & snow storm, but sending out ravens with letters, Catelyn was concerned enough to go to King's Landing with sensitive info.

Hope that didn't side step the subject to much.