230 replies to this topic

[kg1982]

Let me start this topic by saying that I'm working under three assumptions, R+L=J, Ashara knew about Jon and tipped Ned off, and Ashara is Septa Lemore.  I believe that the first two are true, which is why I'm not 100% behind Ashara=Septa Lemore. Jon Con has no clue that he's being played by Varys and Illyrio to put a Blackfrye on the throne.  He also has no idea about Jon either.  

I have two theories, but I can still think of plotholes for each one.  

1.  Ashara is smart enough to be wary of Varys and Illyrio.  She doesn't tell Jon Con because she's afraid that he'll tell Varys and Illyrio.  But if she's savvy enough to be wary of Varys, then why trust his plan in the first place.

2.  Ashara and Ned disagreed what to do about Jon in the first place.  Ashara wanted Ned to either support his nephew's claim or spirit Jon off to the Free Cities while Ned wanted to say Jon was his bastard.  But then why tell Ned where the TOJ was in the first place?

Anyone got any other theories about why Ashara/ Lemore never told Jon Con about Jon Snow.

[kwvapor]

Because Lady Lemore isn't Ashara and/or she doesn't even know if Jon Snow is alive---being overseas for so long.  I don't even think ravens fly that far.

It's kind of a big jump in logic for Lemore = Ashara.  Hair and eye colors are different--Tyrion would have notice if she dyed her hair or if her eyes were unique in any way.

Edited by Censored Wolf, 13 May 2012 - 01:10 PM.

[jarl the climber]

She might not be Ashara, she might not know and if she does she might be keeping it close to her vest.

[Thendel]

I think you can pretty much assume that assumptions 2 and 3 are contradictory, meaning one of them has to be false. Me, I think no. 2 is false - I'm not sure about the timelines, but I don't think only Ashara could have told Ned about ToJ, meaning that it's not given that Ashara knew about Jon.

The above provides that Ashara faked her suicide and escaped before having a chance to learn about Jon Snow. We can assume that Wylla was in on Ned's plan by letting it be rumored that she bore Jon herself, but that could still have happened after Ashara's disappearance.

Now, why would Ashara disappear? If Aegon lived, she might have been contacted by Varys to look after the infant. If the real Aegon died, it might have been out of desperation and/or vengeance. She must've believed Ned to be unworthy of her trust (and possible love) as he had slain her brother, and so she fled to fight another day, swearing revenge on Robert and Ned for having slain Rhaegar and Arthur. In either case, we must assume that she was loyal to Rhaegar and by extension his children. If Aegon is a fake, this also provides that she is as oblivious to that fact as Jon Connington is.

[jon rr stark]

Assuming above is true, Aegon is older than Jon so would be the heir. It is questionable if Jon is a bastard even given that the Targaryens can have multiple marriages.

[Daena the Defiant]

Censored Wolf, on 13 May 2012 - 01:02 PM, said:

Because Lady Lemore isn't Ashara and/or she doesn't even know if Jon Snow is alive---being overseas for so long.  I don't even think ravens fly that far.

The very fact that she is engaged in the "Targaryen Prince Aegon" effort is the best argument that she isn't Lady Ashara - why bother if she has first hand knowledge of Jon?

[Turkey Jack]

might be that septa Lemore is Griffs mother if he is fake, hell Aegon might even be a Stark bastard and no true Targ

Personally I hope he is legit as I enjoyed the twist and reveal.

[Lady Hodor]

Assuminng this is all true, I would follow your second theory, and say she told Ned about the TOJ because she loves him and wanted him to love her, and one way she thought she could do that is by earning his trust and telling him where his lost sister is.

[kg1982]

Aegon is fake..It is known.  However, I don't think that anyone in Aegon's party knows it...only Illyrio, Varys, and the Commander of the Golden Company know the truth.  Ashara is as much a dupe as Jon Con.  However, that doesn't mean that Ashara wouldn't mention that Rhaegar had another son.. Jon is still Aegon's heir and pretty important even if Aegon is real.

[Apple Martini]

After flirting with the possibility for a while, I've decided that, if Tyrion is right about Lemore's age, Lemore almost can't be Ashara, because she's too old. I think Lemore is probably Tyene Sand's mother.

Having said that, I do think that Ashara knows about Jon and that she was the one who told Ned about the Tower of Joy.

But to go along with the OP's argument, I'd say that Ashara would keep "Aegon" (who's fake but she, like JonCon, doesn't know) and Jon separate, and respect Ned's desire to keep his identity a secret from everyone. It's possible that Ned and Ashara disagreed over what to do with Jon, but if Ashara has "Aegon," Jon becomes superfluous. So she'd keep the secret out of respect for Ned, and not "mix" it with the Aegon plot.

Edited by Apple Martini, 13 May 2012 - 03:13 PM.

[Daena the Defiant]

Apple Martini, on 13 May 2012 - 03:12 PM, said:

After flirting with the possibility for a while, I've decided that, if Tyrion is right about Lemore's age, Lemore almost can't be Ashara, because she's too old. I think Lemore is probably Tyene Sand's mother.

Why does she have to be the mother of anyone notable - what can't she just be an ordinary woman who either had an illicit pregnancy then joined the Faith, or perhaps took vows after widowhood or something completely non-scandalous?

Edited by Daena the Defiant, 13 May 2012 - 03:15 PM.

[Apple Martini]

Daena the Defiant, on 13 May 2012 - 03:15 PM, said:

Why does she have to be the mother of anyone notable - what can't she just be an ordinary woman who either had an illicit pregnancy then joined the Faith, or perhaps took vows after widowhood or something completely non-scandalous?

She doesn't have to be anyone notable, you're right. But if she is, I'd say that she's Tyene's mother before I'd say that she was Ashara. Ashara woud still be in her mid-to-late 30s, not over 40.

Daena the Defiant, on 13 May 2012 - 01:57 PM, said:

The very fact that she is engaged in the "Targaryen Prince Aegon" effort is the best argument that she isn't Lady Ashara - why bother if she has first hand knowledge of Jon?

If she is Ashara — and I don't think she is, I'm just playing devil's advocate — she could still think Aegon is real. Aegon would have a better claim than Jon, so having knowledge of Jon wouldn't necessarily make it pointless to go in on a plot for Aegon, especially if Ned has vowed to never, ever let Jon get anywhere near the Iron Throne and its wasp nest.

Edited by Apple Martini, 13 May 2012 - 03:20 PM.

[kg1982]

Quote

If she is Ashara — and I don't think she is, I'm just playing devil's advocate — she could still think Aegon is real. Aegon would have a better claim than Jon, so having knowledge of Jon wouldn't necessarily make it pointless to go in on a plot for Aegon, especially if Ned has vowed to never, ever let Jon get anywhere near the Iron Throne and its wasp nest.

The point is that Jon would still be the "spare" and Aegon's heir until Aegon had his own sons.  Considering what could happen, it would be better to have two Targaryens than one.  Of course, I don't think that Aegon is real, so Ashara revealing that Rhaegar had an actual heir hidden up North would end badly for Jon.  But she doesn't know that Varys would kill him.  The only thing that I could think of is she doesn't trust Varys or that she and Ned had a falling out and Ned demanded that she leave Jon alone.  It would put an interesting spin on Cat and Ned's conversations about Ashara and Jon.  Perhaps Ned was reacting to a falling out with Ashara when he was angry at Cat.

[Apple Martini]

kg1982, on 13 May 2012 - 05:26 PM, said:

The point is that Jon would still be the "spare" and Aegon's heir until Aegon had his own sons.  Considering what could happen, it would be better to have two Targaryens than one.  Of course, I don't think that Aegon is real, so Ashara revealing that Rhaegar had an actual heir hidden up North would end badly for Jon.  But she doesn't know that Varys would kill him.  The only thing that I could think of is she doesn't trust Varys or that she and Ned had a falling out and Ned demanded that she leave Jon alone.  It would put an interesting spin on Cat and Ned's conversations about Ashara and Jon.  Perhaps Ned was reacting to a falling out with Ashara when he was angry at Cat.

Jon does not "belong" to Ashara or JonCon. Even if she did want to have a "spare," or JonCon wanted to have a spare, they have absolutely no legal access to or authority over Jon. Whatever their plan — if they even had one — it would have gone nowhere if Ned had opposed it. And it seems clear that Ned did oppose claiming the throne for Jon, or he'd've done it.

And again, timeline-wise, Lemore almost can't be Ashara. She might actually just be dead or somewhere else, and have nothing to do with JonCon at all.

Edited by Apple Martini, 13 May 2012 - 05:31 PM.

[corbon]

Censored Wolf, on 13 May 2012 - 01:02 PM, said:

It's kind of a big jump in logic for Lemore = Ashara.  Hair and eye colors are different--Tyrion would have notice if she dyed her hair or if her eyes were unique in any way.

Completely wrong. Her hair colour is exactly right - something we didn't know when she was described, and helped to keep the link between Ashara and Lemore 'hidden' initially.
Her (Lemore's) eye colour is not different. It is unknown. One would have expected Tyrion to notice, yes, but he didn't. We don;t have an eye description for Lemore, period In fact GRRM gave himself a little cover here by having Tyrion basically staring at her naked tits when he is describing her. Eyes up boyo! The fact is that if Lemore = Ashara it would totally give the game away if she was described with purple eyes. GRRM has gone to considerable trouble to obscure the connection between them while leaving many subtle clues.

Hair colour the same - but we have a mistaken impression of Ashara's hair colour when Lemore is described, so the connection isn;t made then and can easily be forgotten later.
Eyes not mentioned. Almost the only semi-major character for which this is the case - why?
Swimming - Ashara supposedly suicided by diving into the sea and Lemore swimms almost daily.
Pregnancy - Lemore has stretch marks. At that time we believed Ashara not to have been a mother, but later Barristan reveals she did have a still-born baby.
Age - within a few years, based on our best guess for Ashara. But Tyrion has literally overestimated the age of a person every single time he's guessed (Jon Snow and Young Griff) and Lemore is a middle aged woman who has spent the last 18 or so years as a working non-noble. Tyrion is more likely slightly wrong, han right. Remeber its only his guess, not based on anything other than her looks.
Appeal - Lemore clearly has good looks and X-factor magnetism. Even as a septa! Ashara as a young woman had 'dancing' eyes and appears to have been the popular party girl dancing with all the 'best' boys.
Character - Lemore displays flirtaciousness fitting to Ashara.
Lady - Lemore is thought of by Griff as 'Lady Lemore', so she is or has a noble background.
Concealed - Lemore tells Aegon/Griff that he is not the only one to have to keep his identity hidden.
Targaryen connection - The one single person in the whole world most likely to be tasked with carig for baby Aegon? His mothers loyal handmaid, the sister of his father's most loyal friend and protector, Ashara Dayne.

Daena the Defiant, on 13 May 2012 - 01:57 PM, said:

The very fact that she is engaged in the "Targaryen Prince Aegon" effort is the best argument that she isn't Lady Ashara - why bother if she has first hand knowledge of Jon?

That is putting the cart before the horse. It assumes she knows Jon is Rhaegar's. That is only an unsubstantiated theory with no evidence except is answers an unknown.

Apple Martini, on 13 May 2012 - 03:12 PM, said:

After flirting with the possibility for a while, I've decided that, if Tyrion is right about Lemore's age, Lemore almost can't be Ashara, because she's too old.

Except that Tyrion is literally guessing, and has a 100% wrong record in guessing ages. Not to mention that Ashara herself could easily be 5 years older than our best guess, which would put her around 42-43ish. Our estimate for her age (38ish) is also literally a guess, based on who she was dancing with and the crownd she hung out with.

Apple Martini, on 13 May 2012 - 05:30 PM, said:

And again, timeline-wise, Lemore almost can't be Ashara. She might actually just be dead or somewhere else, and have nothing to do with JonCon at all.

Timeline wise she very much can be Ashara, and it is misleading to say she almost can't. That is based on two complete guesses, one of which is made by someone with a hstory of being wrong.
But the next is true. Ashara might actually have committed suicide. Stranger things have happened.

[Jem]

I absolutely, without doubt believe that Lemore = Ashara. I have from the second I met her. I think that she is simply respecting Ned's wish (and possibly Lyanna's wish too) to keep Jon living anonymously in the north. Jon isn't necessary, not when she has his big brother Aegon on hand.

[Apple Martini]

corbon, on 13 May 2012 - 07:12 PM, said:

Except that Tyrion is literally guessing, and has a 100% wrong record in guessing ages. Not to mention that Ashara herself could easily be 5 years older than our best guess, which would put her around 42-43ish. Our estimate for her age (38ish) is also literally a guess, based on who she was dancing with and the crownd she hung out with.

It's 100% wrong because he's only guessed the age of person, hasn't he? He thought Jon was 12 and he was actually 14. I remember something about Aegon's age being mentioned, but if the kid's a fake, then Tyrion might have been correct about his age.

And this SSM confirms that Ashara would be in her 30s now, not her 40s. Granted I'm only speaking for myself here, but when I read that someone looks like she's in her 40s, I assume mid-40s. Tyrion's been wrong by, what, two years? In any case, I believe that GRRM puts these things in there intending for people to figure them out. Not mentioning the eye color and then feeding us a flat-out incorrect age, only for it to be Ashara, seems a bit disingenuous, and I'll think it's disingenuous if it does turn out to be Ashara. That's why I think Tyene Sand's mother is a fair guess, one that would actually match the ages (Tyene's in her 20s) and that has also reasonably been hinted (Tyene's mother is a septa).

Quote

Timeline wise she very much can be Ashara, and it is misleading to say she almost can't. That is based on two complete guesses, one of which is made by someone with a hstory of being wrong.
But the next is true. Ashara might actually have committed suicide. Stranger things have happened.

Again, the only one he was actually wrong about was Jon, correct? And then he was only off by two years. Considering we don't know where Aegon came from or how old he actually is, I don't think that one should count; Tyrion could very well have been right.

Edited by Apple Martini, 13 May 2012 - 07:28 PM.

[corbon]

Apple Martini, on 13 May 2012 - 07:28 PM, said:

Again, the only one he was actually wrong about was Jon, correct? And then he was only off by two years. Considering we don't know where Aegon came from or how old he actually is, I don't think that one should count; Tyrion could very well have been right.

Twice, not once.
He got Jon wrong 12 vs 14 and he got Young Griff wrong 16 vs 18. Note that Young Griff would reeeally be stretching (to the point of impossibility) to be pretending to be 18 when he was 16, since he's been around with Griff since he was about 5 (3?) and Lemore presumabely since being a baby, probably less than 2 (hence impossibility). If Lemore and Griff know he is a fake, then he could be 16 pretending to be 18, but that is extremely unlikely given Griff's internal thoughts.

So, 2 years wrong, both times. Which would put a 38-39 Ashara (in her thirties) into her fourties.
Or, 12.5-16.7% wrong - which would put an Ashara anywhere past 35 into her forties.
Not to mention that middle-aged women are by far the hardest age estimate for a man, or to mention that Ashara as Lemore has not been living a pampered noble life, which is the standard Tyrion has as his base.

I see Tyrion's prior mis-estimating as little gems which point to this mis-estimation. They have basically no other purpose. Unless the intent is to set Tyrion up as a bad age-estimator then both those little factoids could easily be removed from the story.

Really, it is totally unreasonable to take the guess of a man about a middle aged womans age when he has no hard data at all to work with as 'solid gold truth'. The whole question of a womans age is known to be a loaded question which men always get wrong even in our world. Every man with half a brain knows that you never guess a woman's age and act (especially with your mouth) on your guess. You always leave at least +/- 5 years, if not 10 years, factored into your estimate and still don't act publicly on that guess.

Tyrion is guessing. There is no reason at all to take his guess as accurate, and plenty of reasons not to.

PS. Thanks for the SSM. I'd missed that. Good to have confirmation that the best guesses fit within hard parameters defined by George.

Edited by corbon, 13 May 2012 - 09:14 PM.

[Apple Martini]

I still think it's a stretch, sorry. It might be Ashara, but lying about her age and not mentioning purple eyes isn't the best way to set it up, and it borders on bizarre that Tyrion would note her hair and her stretch marks but not purple eyes, which would be out of the ordinary by his standards. Why do you think the purple eyes aren't mentioned, by the way? It would be meant to be figured out, right? I also think there's a difference between being off a couple of years when guessing ages of teenage boys, and being off by, what, probably 5+ years when guessing the age of an adult woman.

Edited by Apple Martini, 13 May 2012 - 10:08 PM.

[Howling Mad]

Apple Martini, on 13 May 2012 - 03:12 PM, said:

After flirting with the possibility for a while, I've decided that, if Tyrion is right about Lemore's age, Lemore almost can't be Ashara, because she's too old. I think Lemore is probably Tyene Sand's mother.

Having said that, I do think that Ashara knows about Jon and that she was the one who told Ned about the Tower of Joy.

But to go along with the OP's argument, I'd say that Ashara would keep "Aegon" (who's fake but she, like JonCon, doesn't know) and Jon separate, and respect Ned's desire to keep his identity a secret from everyone. It's possible that Ned and Ashara disagreed over what to do with Jon, but if Ashara has "Aegon," Jon becomes superfluous. So she'd keep the secret out of respect for Ned, and not "mix" it with the Aegon plot.

My understanding of the order of events may be incorrect.  I was under the impression that the events of the TOJ occurred first and that Ned Stark meets with Ashara afterwards in order to return Arthur Dayne's sword.  Am I forgetting some piece of evidence about Ashara directing Ned and his six companions to the TOJ?

Edited by Howling4Reed, 13 May 2012 - 10:31 PM.