400 replies to this topic

[Maithanet]

Jaime Bollocks, on 13 June 2012 - 10:36 AM, said:

Also how about Sefalosha? I remember when he came out of nowhere on one of those Bulls teams a couple years back but never could've imagined he'd be the defensive difference maker against the incredibly diverse skillsets of Tony Parker and Lebron James for a title contending team. Collison too was quality. Even with a good performance by Battier, Miami looks completely outclassed in terms of role players.

But everyone knew this was coming.  This is a team where two role players are starters, and only seven guys are capable of contributing anything (big three, Chalmers, Haslem, Anthony and Battier).  I couldn't believe they had Miller out there in the second half, he is a disaster on both ends of the floor.

What do you think would be the score of a game between the Heat and Thunder, if the big three for each team did not play?  That would be
Heat:  Chalmers, Cole, Battier, Haslem, Anthony
Thunder:  Fischer, Sefolosha, Collison, Ibaka, Perkins

It would be relatively low scoring, since there are more defenders than scorers on that list.  But I think the Thunder would win by 25 every night.  They are bigger, better and more athletic.

Which means that the not healthy Big Three of the Heat have to absolutely outplay the healthy Big Three of the Thunder.  If it's a wash, the Thunder win.

Before the series, a lot of people talked about the matchup problems Lebron and Bosh create for the Thunder.  Well, Spoelstra needs to make sure those come up early and often, because I didn't see them much last night.

[Jaime L]

Rhom, on 13 June 2012 - 10:54 AM, said:

Additionally, who can deny the raw passion of those fans?!!?  

Yeah, man, I wanted to dislike OKC because Seattle had a proud, passionate NBA fanbase and thought what Clay Bennett did was absolute bullshit. But man, the passion of the OKC fans and the love affair with the city - it's pretty awesome to see and makes playoff games played in OKC that much more intense feeling even just on TV. All the cynical bullshit that surrounds most of the NBA doesn't seem to exist with the Thunder - at least not yet. Seems like there's something to be said for the small market cities in where the NBA is the only game in town. When Portland and to a lesser extent Sacramento were good, there was also a palpable infectious energy surrounding that team.

So I don't mind so much anymore that OKC has a team though I would've liked to see someone other than the Supersonics moving there.

Quote

This is a team where two role players are starters, and only seven guys are capable of contributing anything (big three, Chalmers, Haslem, Anthony and Battier).  I couldn't believe they had Miller out there in the second half, he is a disaster on both ends of the floor.

Was reading about a prop bet on Grantland where you could get 25-1 odds on someone on Miami other than the big 3 (and Chalmers for some reason) winning Finals MVP. Who the fuck would take that bet?! You could give me 1,000-1 odds and I wouldn't take it. Leave alone how atrocious Miami's supporting cast is, has a role player ever won Finals MVP? Why does this exist as a bet?

ETA: NM, Dennis Johnson did for Seattle 34 years ago. Course he's still 20x the role player as anyone on the Heat and that team had no stars to begin with...

Edited by Jaime Bollocks, 13 June 2012 - 11:19 AM.

[Mexal]

I was just saying to Jaime that Sefolosha reminded me of Tayshon Prince; that he exhibited a lot of the same qualities that Prince did for the Pistons when they were such a good team. I think he's one of the biggest X-Factors for the Thunder.

[Calibandar]

I get the feeling we're dismissing the Heat a bit too easily. Not only do they have the tremendous class of Lebron James, who is going to have at least one game in which he's so good he'll probably win it singlehandedly, there's also the fact that they've consistently shown in this playoff series that they are not easy to beat over 7 games. Yes they have fucked games up, certainly, and yet when you are inclined to think that they are done for, going from 2-1 up in the series to 2-3 down for instance, they come back again. I actually think they are a very sturdy side mentally, despite all the talk about the Big Three and whether or not they do enough for Miami.

This is going to be very hard on OKC I think. Despite their wealth of talent and the fact that I certainly want them to win.

[Reposado]

Jaime Bollocks, on 13 June 2012 - 11:10 AM, said:

you could get 25-1 odds on someone on Miami other than the big 3 (and Chalmers for some reason) winning Finals MVP. Who the fuck would take that bet?! You could give me 1,000-1 odds and I wouldn't take it. Leave alone how atrocious Miami's supporting cast is, has a role player ever won Finals MVP? Why does this exist as a bet?

free money for the house, really.
they could thrown in chalmers wade and bosh, and i still wouldn't take it at 25-1

[Maithanet]

Calibandar, on 14 June 2012 - 02:50 PM, said:

I get the feeling we're dismissing the Heat a bit too easily. Not only do they have the tremendous class of Lebron James, who is going to have at least one game in which he's so good he'll probably win it singlehandedly,

But game 1 was James' best performance to date in 11 finals games (2-9 record).  In the Finals, when a team has a wing defender to put on him, and a shot blocker to clog the lane, Lebron's offense has been quite poor.  And the Thunder have both of those.  They actually have two or three different guys to do each of those roles, so that he's always facing fresh rotations.

Quote

there's also the fact that they've consistently shown in this playoff series that they are not easy to beat over 7 games. Yes they have fucked games up, certainly, and yet when you are inclined to think that they are done for, going from 2-1 up in the series to 2-3 down for instance, they come back again. I actually think they are a very sturdy side mentally, despite all the talk about the Big Three and whether or not they do enough for Miami.

This issue is just that with the Bulls gelded by the Rose injury, the East was a joke.  The Heat last year dispatched both the Celtics and the Bulls in five.  This year they took six games against the Pacers and then seven against a Boston team that isn't getting any younger.

I picked the Thunder in seven, but after seeing game 1, I'm not confident it will take that long.  Miami is not going to win all 3 games at home, and that means this is practically a must-win for the Heat.

[Rhom]

I listened to the soundbite of Wade talking about how he has to take a backseat to Lebron because he's the best player on the floor, blah blah blah.

My question the entire time the Heat has been together is why?  Why does Lebron have to be the leading scorer?  I thought it was a given that what makes him so special isn't necessarily his scoring, but everything else he brings to the table.  There are plenty of guys in the league that can average between 20-30 a night given the opportunity that Lebron has.  There are zero guys his size with the court vision and passing ability and the threat to score from virtually anywhere like Lebron.  It seems to me that by asking him to take the leading scorer role exclusively, we are eliminating what makes him the best player currently in the game.

But hey... what do I know?

[Calibandar]

I agree, but maybe James demands that, demands that he be given the ball all the time, demands that Wade sort of behaves subservient to him? Or maybe he doesn't and that is the Miami Heat tactic and mindset, in which case I think you have a good point.

[Maithanet]

Calibandar, on 14 June 2012 - 04:10 PM, said:

I agree, but maybe James demands that, demands that he be given the ball all the time, demands that Wade sort of behaves subservient to him? Or maybe he doesn't and that is the Miami Heat tactic and mindset, in which case I think you have a good point.

The problem is that in order for Wade or James to be great, they have to have the ball.  Neither are particularly good at offense away from the ball ala Ray Allen.  James is a great distributor (much better than Wade), but that skill doesn't really complement Wade easily at all, becuase Wade is all about attacking the basket.  If James has just attacked the defense and then kicked it back out, it doesn't work to have Wade drive right back at them (although they still do it pretty regularly, to little success).

Now, the Heat can occasionally run sets that allow the two of them to iso two defenders, and when that works, it is incredible.  Just ask the Pacers.  But good defensive teams can get a third man over there, and then it all starts to break down.

I'm starting to wonder if the Heat need Phil Jackson's Triangle offense in order to maximize thier talent.  And if they do, if he would once again come out of retirement to coach the best player in the game.  Is there animosity between Riley and Jackson?  I don't know.

[aeu]

Maithanet, on 14 June 2012 - 03:21 PM, said:

This issue is just that with the Bulls gelded by the Rose injury, the East was a joke.  The Heat last year dispatched both the Celtics and the Bulls in five.  This year they took six games against the Pacers and then seven against a Boston team that isn't getting any younger.

I picked the Thunder in seven, but after seeing game 1, I'm not confident it will take that long.  Miami is not going to win all 3 games at home, and that means this is practically a must-win for the Heat.

Exactly. I have great respect for Boston and how hard they fought, but the truth is that Boston is at best an average team.  They barely got by other at-best-average teams in the first two rounds. They did not play great or even consistently good against Miami either.  They did get props (deservedly) for their play considering their ages / injuries.  It was an inspiring performance, but if you look at their play on its own, it wasn't that good (with a few exceptions like Rando in game 2). I really don't think Miami should get any credit for sneaking by them in seven games.

Though, the Heat does have a tendency to play to the level of competition. If they played at the level they have played so far in these playoffs, this should be over in 5, at most 6.

[Sir Thursday]

It's worth remembering that the Heat weren't free of the injury bug either for those series. I doubt either would have been so close if Bosh had been healthy for them. I don't think it's a good idea to base predictions on how the Heat struggled to beat their competition simply because they are a different, more dangerous team when they've got their one competent big man on the floor.

Like Calibandar, I don't see the writing on the wall for the Heat yet. I mean, look at the OKC-Spurs series - a lot of people, myself included, thought that OKC were down and out when they went 2-0 down. So IMO not worth jumping to conclusions until we've seen the Heat in their own house.

ST

[Jaime L]

The Heat are killing the Thunder due to a mix of disastrous Thunder foul trouble limiting Durant and Westrbrook's minutes and Lebron, Bosh and Wade all coming to play for the first time in a long time (plus Battier never missing). But even as I'm rooting hard for the Thunder I'm still watching rapt with the knowledge these are the greatest athletes on planet Earth doing battle. And most NBA games you can make that case, but this is the cream of the crop. The athletes that make other NBA players look like fat middle aged guys embarrassingly overmatched in a YMCA pick-up game.  I mean it's an obvious point but one that bears repeating because there are so many distractions (i.e.: Does Westbrook shoot too much? Will Lebron ever be clutch? etc. etc.) But this is fucking great. Like watching an engaging action film on IMAX great. And this game hasn't been under 10 points since the start and it's still compelling as hell. Dream series indeed.

And now Durant's heating up....

ETA: Perfect example of what I'm talking about on cue: Westbrook leading a fast break and exploding through Lebron freakin' James for the And-1 layup to pull the Thunder within 4. There's like 3 guys on the planet who can make that play.
ETA2: Durant 7/7 in the second half.

Edited by Jaime Bollocks, 14 June 2012 - 10:25 PM.

[Relic]

Durant is ridiculous.

[Jaime L]

Relic, on 14 June 2012 - 10:27 PM, said:

Durant is ridiculous.

No question, but in these last couple minutes it's amazingly Westbrook who's carrying them. When that dude gets a head of steam, feels like anything is possible.

ETA: It's all gonna be for naught though. Lebron's looking pretty damn clutch in the final few minutes of this one.
ETA2: Spoke too soon! Amazing steal by the Thunder in an obvious foul situation followed by a Durant 3! AMAZING. 2 point game with 12 seconds left...Thunder ball......
ETA3: Fuck, Durant missed a runner to tie. And Lebron sank both free throws. That's game?

Edited by Jaime Bollocks, 14 June 2012 - 10:47 PM.

[aeu]

Unbelievable finish.  Very tough non calls at the end, particularly considering how the game was officiated all night.

[Jaime L]

Finally have a moment to collect my thoughts. That game ended way closer than it had any right to be. Miami dominated all night. Lebron and Wade each played well and Bosh was pulling down every rebound in sight. Durant and Westbrook did nothing until the second half due to foul trouble and bad shots. And yet if they call a foul on Lebron on Durant's final shot, it's probably a tie game with 7 seconds left.

Anyway OKC finally loses at home in the playoffs for the first time. The silver lining is the series just got more interesting.

Quote

Very tough non calls at the end, particularly considering how the game was officiated all night.

The Ticky-tack calls, especially on Durant, were the one flaw to a great game. I do think Lebron probably fouled him on his final shot but I can at least understand why they didn't call it.

Edited by Jaime Bollocks, 14 June 2012 - 11:01 PM.

[Triskele]

Yeah - This is a very interesting series, and it just got way more interesting.

I don't want to psychoanalyze humanity too much, but OKC is a bit of the young buck whereas Miami has been here.  Maybe Miami is in better shape than we thought.  OKC is still the best stock to buy for the long term, but this series can go either way.

Remember that Shane Battier, as much as it sucks, is one of the most underrated players in the game.  He is Miami's Jeff Hornececk.

[aeu]

Yeah, but i would be furious if i were an OKC fan. I do symphatise with the idea that games should not be decided on the line with cheap fouls, but i don't think these would qualify as such. It appeared that both Durant and Westbrok had great chances to score, yet Lebron somehow managed to foul both within one second.it just sems like after all that effort for the comeback, OKC did not get a fair shot at scoring.

There is also the isue of consistency. Some of the calls Lebron got while OKC was trying to make a comeback or the ticky tack calls on Durant also had a huge impact on the game. If you call those all night long and stop at the last second, you do affect the outcome of the game. Especially since the game is decided by 2 points.

[Relic]

If you are OKC you walk away from this game knowing you scored 2 points in the first 8 minutes or some shit and you were within 2 points in the last 15 seconds.

Sweeping the Heat wasn't happening.

[Horus Bergeron]

Relic, on 15 June 2012 - 12:08 AM, said:

If you are OKC you walk away from this game knowing you scored 2 points in the first 8 minutes or some shit and you were within 2 points in the last 15 seconds.

Sweeping the Heat wasn't happening.

If you're OKC you need to be a bit concerned with the incredibly slow starts they've had in both games at home.  Granted the same thing happened to the Mavs last season, but they were entering three games at home while OKC is now going away for three games.