Do you believe Aegon?

[LordBiscuit]

I'm kinda new here, so I only read the latest threads, but it seems to me nobody talks about Aegon when it comes to candidates for the Iron Throne.

Personally, I've been rooting for him from almost the moment we first learned that he might really be Aegon.

My question is, why? Don't people around here believe his claim of identity? Did I miss something crucial?

[Rhaegar The Rocker]

Off the top of my head:

A lot of people perceive him as the mummers dragon in Dany's vision at the House of the Dying.

We're given a lot of Blackfyre history in the books and The Golden Company vows to never break a contract unless there is a Blackfyre heir to the throne, yet they all take up Aegon's plight.

I tend to agree that he's fake Because of the reasons above, but also that it seems to convenient for him to all the sudden show up 5 books deep.

[Monty501]

Aegon/ Young Griff is the First and only son of Prince Rhaegar Targaryen. It is known.

[Tony Soprano]

OK, first of all, I have to say that I'm biased. My banners have been raised for Stannis since the start of the war, so I don't want to believe he's the real deal, but it's not just that. There is some evidence that points to him.

The switch

How did Varys know that Gregor was going to bash the baby's head in to make him unrecognizable? If Gregor hadn't done so, the supposed switched baby would have been recognized, because the Targaryens have some distinct features.

My take on this: Gregor killed the real baby Aegon, but since he smashed his head in, Varys saw this as an opportunity. He and Illyrio now claim to have saved the baby, which is very beneficial to them - they have a claimant for the Iron Throne. They lied to Lord Jon, who believed them because he hadn't seen the real baby.

The Golden Company

The Golden Company is a mercenary band formed by Bittersteel, a Blackfyre pretender who was exiled from Westeros. His goal was to return to Westeros and put a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne. After Bittersteel died, their new captain general was Maelys the Monstorous, the last Blackfyre pretender. After his death, they started taking contracts from the cities of Essos. They are one of the biggest mercenary companies in Essos, and have never broken a contract. During AFfC, we learn that they've broken their contract with Myr for no apparent reason. In ADwD, we learn that Illyrio has hired the Golden Company, and later we see the Golden Company swear fealty to Lord Jon and Young Griff. Why would they swear to fight for a Targaryen, when the Company, since it's formation has fought against Targaryens?

My take:

Maelys wasn't the last Blackfyre. Young Griff is his descendant. Illyrio and Varys learned of this, and wanted to use it in their advantage. They gave the boy to Lord Jon, who couldn't know if he was real or not, he hadn't seen the baby before. Illyrio was a middleman between Young Griff and the GC ( there are even theories that Illyrio is a Blackfyre himself ). So, learning that there was still a Blackfyre pretender, the GC broke their contract with Myr and started preparing for a war with Westeros like in the days of Maelys. And Illyrio says it himself: " Some contracts are writ in ink, and some in blood " .

And there are also some smaller pointers, which could be false, but are still worth looking at.

Quaithe warns Danny that there will be a " mummer's dragon " . The Blackfyre sigil is also a dragon, so she could be pointing to that or to someone who was " made " a dragon by Varys and Illyrio - the mummers.

Quaithe warns her not to trust any of these: The Kraken and the Dark Flame ( Victarion and Moqorro ) , the Lion ( Lannisters ), the Griffin ( Lord Jon ), the Sun's son ( Quentyn ) and at last, the mummer's dragon, Young Griff. If he's real why would Quaithe warn Danny to treat him the same way she would treat her enemies?

[RobertOfTheHouseBaratheon]

If he's real he's a Targ and no one wants a Targ. But all signs point to him being Blackfyre which means he wouldn't even be legitamate. Raising someone to be the perfect king through scholarship and the methods Varys outlined doesn't work. A King needs to be forged through experience and responsibility. The boy has lived comfortably without responsibilities. He's never had any administration experience, as much as Tyrion moaned about it his work on the Sewage system is useful learning. He's had no battle experience, reading famous battles in books is not the same thing. He can read about justice and how to be a good king but not seen justice carried out. What justice you give to who. If you treat the nobles equally as the commoners you'll have a rebellion fementing pretty quickly. If he gets the throne I think he'll prove to be out of his depth. He'll have men to help him in all of these of course but reliance on them will breed corruption and make his reign no better than Roberts.

The raising a perfect king is a fairytale and this is asoiaf, the bubble will burst so I wouldn't get your hopes up too high. I don't think he'll survive the series.

[Fire and Blood!]

I believe he is really the son of Rhaegar, sure he is about as "perfect" as any other contender for the throne but that doesn't mean that he will certainly fail.Matter of fact I hope he wins, I haven't full heartedly supported anyone since Viserys died and so far Aegon is filling the spot.

[mcb]

And a reason of different nature: it simply doesn't sound like good story to pull another True Heir to the Throne out of your, err... magician's hat, that far into the series. If he's just a distraction, however, that's OK.

Also: Varys' speech about Aegon VI the Saint in the epilogue could mean only one of two things (and possibly both): Aegon is a fake or he's a dead man walking.

[Jory]

I'd prefer Aegon to Daenerys even though I'm almost certain he's fake.

[EgoistMusketeer]

The black dragon that washed up on the quiet isle. The golden company. The mummers dragon prophecy. Crazy Varys being raised by mummers and supporting Aegon. Illyrio possibly being in possession of the sword "Blackfyre" and shipping it to him. Besides all the strong hints that he is a blackfyre descendant. I simply can't sympathize with a contender that appears in book 5 / 7. We've been through so much hardships with every other character and now we're supposed to jump ship and support another entitled brat?

[Teal'c]

I don't think we have enough information to know one way or the other if Aegon is the real deal. However, for me, to paraphrase Tolkein, he looks fair but feels foul.

[Jamie Lannister]

99% sure he's fake. The evidence and hints are piling up, subtle as they are.

He's just too convenient to be genuine.

[Grimwolfe]

"The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. Trust none of them"

Quaithe knows her shit

[Valkyrja]

I don't think we have enough information to know one way or the other if Aegon is the real deal. However, for me, to paraphrase Tolkein, he looks fair but feels foul.

:agree:

I agree with the person who said that 'raising the perfect king' is a fairytale......indeed. It is the King Arthur story all over again. I don't see GRRM ever being *that* straightforward.

All the Blackfyre evidence is extremely compelling, but I must admit that I didn't even think of that when I first was reading ADwD. What *really* stood out to me was more character-related: Young Griff's 'temper tantrum' to Tyrion after losing the game of cyvasse; Young Griff suddenly acting even more brashly and arrogantly towards Jon Connington after deciding to reveal himself as Aegon; and also, Jon Connington's near-obsessive love of Rhaegar. I felt, surely, that GRRM was showing us a man who was not only tragically dying of greyscale, but also who was so in love with Rhaegar's memory and the need to redeem himself towards Rhaegar, that he would believe what he wanted to believe about Young Griff.

I think Young Griff believes he is Aegon, and for now, so does Jon Connington. I don't think Young Griff is a bad kid, but the thing is.....he seems to act like *such* a kid still. And yet, throughout ADwD we have the storyline of Jon Snow (as Lord Snow) telling himself to 'kill the boy and let the man be born', and showing the difficulties when experiencing an actual leadership position. In contrast, while Young Griff seems to know his history well enough, he has not had practical experience thus far, and yet he is even older than both Dany and Jon Snow at this point.

Then, there is the fact that I find it extremely difficult to sympathize with Young Griff himself. I found myself more interested in the various people surrounding him in those chapters: Jon Connington, Septa Lemore (whoever she is), Duck, the Half-Maester, etc.

I just get the feeling that Jon Connington is an extremely tragic figure......even *if* Young Griff IS Aegon.....I could see Jon C. accidentally giving Greyscale to him or something..:crying:

[Cheese Pudding]

I believe in him, not in Varys. That's why I think he's fake.

[Ice Turtle]

He is a summer king pretender and winter has just come.

[master]

but the mummers dragon could mean the dragon controlled by the mummer. my opinion is that there is a fifty/fifty chance of going either way. I'm undecided.

[clairvoyantcat]

I think Tyrion's game of Cyvasse with Aegon was perhaps a bit of foreshadowing. Tyrion describes his style as reckless and all-or-nothing. Taking Storm's End was probably a brash move, and I get the feeling that hot-headed Aegon is going to try to take it all too soon (perhaps even march on KL before he's gathered enough support) and that will be his downfall. Connington won't hold him back, because he doesn't have long to live anyway, so they're both going to get their shit fucked from rushing into things.

There's a lot of discussion about his legitimacy here, but I don't think anyone in Westeros really seems to give a fuck about that anymore so it's pretty much irrelevant. I'd say an analysis into what kind of leader he's shown himself to be is far more telling.

[Valkyrja]

I agree about the legitimacy thing......at this point, I almost don't care. Whether he turns out to be Aegon or not, doesn't matter......all I know is that I have yet to warm up to the guy. :dunno:

[Rheagar Prime]

Man with the way martin is going wouldn't be shocked if he killed varys and lllyrio, but i do feel he is rhegar's son i do have doubts but i do feel he is his son. With varys as much of a liar he is the man doesn't play big cards like this unless he knows something but we will see. I see why people have doubts especially with jon's love for rheagar and lllyrio's fatherly bond with him. I feel he did the right thing to take tyrion advice and i see him and the Dornes joining together and a little sword named blackfyre ending up in his hands. I will just wait until martin does more character devlopment cause i see him changing from the arrogant child he is now since he will finally go into far and is under leadership. Look at dany, robb and jon who developed because of such experiences he will face in westeros. I'll just wait until i see how the martells react to him and dany herself and we'll see. I don't see martin presenting such an important figure for him to be fake. imo

[The Last Direwolf]

I really want to... but I don't.