72 replies to this topic

[aryagonnakill]

Does he really have him outnumbered though?  Manderlys got 10,000 men to add to stannis. and who knows what the other northern lords will do, or if skagos will send men.  Not to mention stannis is the guy with more knowledge than ramsey or roose, he discovered and dealt with the karstark plot, he knows that the manderlys, freys, and most likely ramsey will be attacking , and they have a frozen lake with holes in it. what more could a guy ask for?

[OrcusOfUndeath]

As far as I recall Boltons have a host of 5000-6000 men. Stannis has about the same. But, Boltons hold on the army is weak. They are constantly at each others throats, and as of TWoW he has lost a portion of the Frey host. He can't really trust any of his men, whereas Stannis now can. When Davos returns with Rickon, and a potential host from Skagos, things will go to his favor even more. Winterfell is extremely difficult to take, but, I think that Roose's weak claim to the title of Warden of the North will be his undoing. Ned Stark was a beloved man all over North, and beyond, and no one will swear an oath to a Bolton as long as there is one Stark left alive (which is where Rickon comes into play).

Not to mention when Justin Massey returns with 20.000 sellswords from Braavos.

[Jolene Brown]

By the time Davos gets back from Skagos or even more so Justin Massey from Braavos, the fight for Winterfell will be long long over.  I do think Stannis will win though.  At least his army will... what will happen to Stannis is another question.

[OrcusOfUndeath]

Jolene Brown, on 18 June 2012 - 07:08 PM, said:

By the time Davos gets back from Skagos or even more so Justin Massey from Braavos, the fight for Winterfell will be long long over.  I do think Stannis will win though.  At least his army will... what will happen to Stannis is another question.

Isn't Davos likely already on his way to Skagos, as of tWoW?

Edited by OrcusOfUndeath, 18 June 2012 - 08:03 PM.

[oscarinfw]

The problem with GRMM is all the POVs are not always provided in chronological order with well defined time periods.  How long does it take for Davos to get to Skagos, find Rickon and return ?  How long does it take for Manderly to march up to Winterfell ? And how long for an assumed followup fleet (with Davos/Rickon ?) to reach Winterfell ?  

I'm assuming Manderly will not join the march to Winterfell until he gets his son back; which process does not begin until Davos "death" (?) is confirmed in KL.  How long does this take ?

[David C. Hunter]

Team Bolton:
HouseCerwyn of Cerwyn. - Will betray the second they can
House Dustin of Barrowton - Will betray the second they can
House Hornwood - Will betray the second they can
House Ryswell of the Rills.
House Stout of Goldgrass.
House Umber - Will betray the second they can
House Frey

Team Stannis:
The Mountain Clans(Flints, Liddles, Harclay, Knotts, Burley, Norrey and Wulls)
Queens Men
House Mormount
House Manderly
House Locke
House Glover
House Karstak (Thanks to Alys)
Some Ironborn captives

So with the Freys about to drown at the Battle of Ice, all the Boltons can rely on are their own men, Rysells and the Stouts....good luck with that. Not to mention Mance Raydar is dicing people on the inside as well as the hooded man.

[Jolene Brown]

David C. Simmons, on 18 June 2012 - 10:59 PM, said:

So with the Freys about to drown at the Battle of Ice, all the Boltons can rely on are their own men, Rysells and the Stouts....good luck with that. Not to mention Mance Raydar is dicing people on the inside as well as the hooded man.

I concur that Stannis has the advantage - he has Theon's inside knowledge of the goings-on inside Winterfell and the conflict in the Bolton camp.  But I don't get why people still think the hooded man is doing the murders in Winterfell.  The spearwives basically admitted to Theon that it was them.  When Theon/Jeyne escaped, the spearwives and Mance's cover was broken, so regardless of whether the letter was true, we can guess that Ramsay will have been able to capture them and they are no longer in the picture.  Luckily for Stannis, they left on their mission without much knowledge of his actual plans, so it's dubious that Ramsay will be able to get much useful info out of them.

Why would Dustin betray?  She seems like one of the more loyal parties in the Bolton camp, unless she is an amazing liar (possible, but I wouldn't put her as a guaranteed will betray as soon as she can).

[David C. Hunter]

Jolene Brown, on 18 June 2012 - 11:08 PM, said:

I concur that Stannis has the advantage - he has Theon's inside knowledge of the goings-on inside Winterfell and the conflict in the Bolton camp.  But I don't get why people still think the hooded man is doing the murders in Winterfell.  The spearwives basically admitted to Theon that it was them.  When Theon/Jeyne escaped, the spearwives and Mance's cover was broken, so regardless of whether the letter was true, we can guess that Ramsay will have been able to capture them and they are no longer in the picture.  Luckily for Stannis, they left on their mission without much knowledge of his actual plans, so it's dubious that Ramsay will be able to get much useful info out of them.

Why would Dustin betray?  She seems like one of the more loyal parties in the Bolton camp, unless she is an amazing liar (possible, but I wouldn't put her as a guaranteed will betray as soon as she can).

Lady Dustin is up in the air, but I think she will turncloak eventually though reluctantly. Besides her the Dustins dont have a problem with the Starks

[bemused]

The spearwives didn't admit to all the killings , and it's even possible that they didn't commit any. The most damning things they've said was that Yellow Dick was disgusting ( I forget the exact word)  and "This is no work of ours. " to Mance ... which you could take to mean that some other deaths were...but it's far from an airtight case.

I think Lady Dustin has been a Northern Mole in Roose's camp all along. All the things she said to Theon could be designed to mislead Ramsay and Roose , since she'd assume if they asked, Theon would spill every word. I always thought the lady did protest too much in her hatred of Starks, her disdain for Manderly, maybe even the degree of her contempt for the maesters.. Maybe the "borrowed" maesters with Roose are not so pleased to be serving him , maybe they no more have his interests at heart than , say, Tybald does for Stannis.

I'm feeling Barbrey is really more aligned with Manderly, and she's in the deepest cover of all the Northern Lords in Winterfell . And since she was a Ryswell , I think we can add the Ryswells to the "ready to turn " list . I don't know where that leaves the Stouts , but if all the others are anti-Bolton in their hearts , the Stouts probably are as well.

Edited by bemused, 19 June 2012 - 06:53 PM.

[David C. Hunter]

bemused, on 19 June 2012 - 06:51 PM, said:

The spearwives didn't admit to all the killings , and it's even possible that they didn't commit any. The most damning things they've said was that Yellow Dick was disgusting ( I forget the exact word)  and "This is no work of ours. " to Mance ... which you could take to mean that some other deaths were...but it's far from an airtight case.

I think Lady Dustin has been a Northern Mole in Roose's camp all along. All the things she said to Theon could be designed to mislead Ramsay and Roose , since she'd assume if they asked, Theon would spill every word. I always thought the lady did protest too much in her hatred of Starks, her disdain for Manderly, maybe even the degree of her contempt for the maesters.. Maybe the "borrowed" maesters with Roose are not so pleased to be serving him , maybe they no more have his interests at heart than , say, Tybald does for Stannis.

I'm feeling Barbrey is really more aligned with Manderly, and she's in the deepest cover of all the Northern Lords in Winterfell . And since she was a Ryswell , I think we can add the Ryswells to the "ready to turn " list . I don't know where that leaves the Stouts , but if all the others are anti-Bolton in their hearts , the Stouts probably are as well.

I agree totally. If it weren't for Winterfell separating the armies, the Boltons would be outnumbered like 10 to 1.
This is also assuming that any sellswords or Skagosi armies dont join Stannis in the attack

[Clariana]

bemused, on 19 June 2012 - 06:51 PM, said:

The spearwives didn't admit to all the killings , and it's even possible that they didn't commit any. The most damning things they've said was that Yellow Dick was disgusting ( I forget the exact word)  and "This is no work of ours. " to Mance ... which you could take to mean that some other deaths were...but it's far from an airtight case.

I think Lady Dustin has been a Northern Mole in Roose's camp all along. All the things she said to Theon could be designed to mislead Ramsay and Roose , since she'd assume if they asked, Theon would spill every word. I always thought the lady did protest too much in her hatred of Starks, her disdain for Manderly, maybe even the degree of her contempt for the maesters.. Maybe the "borrowed" maesters with Roose are not so pleased to be serving him , maybe they no more have his interests at heart than , say, Tybald does for Stannis.

I'm feeling Barbrey is really more aligned with Manderly, and she's in the deepest cover of all the Northern Lords in Winterfell . And since she was a Ryswell , I think we can add the Ryswells to the "ready to turn " list . I don't know where that leaves the Stouts , but if all the others are anti-Bolton in their hearts , the Stouts probably are as well.

I agree re la Dustin, her asking Theon to take her down to the crypts was not without an ulterior motive, looking for a way out, a refuge or a weapon, perhaps?

My ha'penneth worth? Ramsey will turn against Roose sooner or later, might not manage to kill him but what about pregnant Walda... A definite weak spot. And Dustin will kill or attempt to kill Ramsey and probably die (hopefully quickly) in the attempt... Stannis will walk it...

[VaramyrSixchins]

oscarinfw, on 18 June 2012 - 08:22 PM, said:

The problem with GRMM is all the POVs are not always provided in chronological order with well defined time periods.  How long does it take for Davos to get to Skagos, find Rickon and return ?  How long does it take for Manderly to march up to Winterfell ? And how long for an assumed followup fleet (with Davos/Rickon ?) to reach Winterfell ?  

I'm assuming Manderly will not join the march to Winterfell until he gets his son back; which process does not begin until Davos "death" (?) is confirmed in KL.  How long does this take ?

You're right, Manderly goes to WF after his son comes home. Cersei tells the small council in Feast that Manderly killed Davos. She also says the Umbers promised to join Ramsay at retaking Moat Cailin. In the aDwD Jon chapter when he dissuades Stannis from attacking the Dreadfort, Moat Cailin hasn't been taken yet either. So, if we assume Davos left immediately after his last chapter, he's been on his mission since right before Theon took Moat Cailin.

This means he's had at least the time it took for Stannis to gather the northern clans, march on Deepwood, and march some distance to WF. Whether or not this is enough time to get Rickon and return is anyone's guess, but if he shows up relatively early in tWoW, at least it won't be "aw, c'mon, he couldn't get back THAT fast" improbable.

Edited by VaramyrSixchins, 04 July 2012 - 12:55 AM.

[House_Scattergood]

Roose is an interesting character for sure. There was that one scene in cok when he burns that book and I just always thought that leach thing was weird. I hope he out lives Ramsay considering he is way more of a real villain than Ramsay who is just a violent monster. Roose could have been the dude if he didn't betray Robb but oh well. "there's no point on looking back at battles lost and roads not taken."

[Vympel]

David C. Simmons, on 18 June 2012 - 10:59 PM, said:

Team Bolton:
HouseCerwyn of Cerwyn. - Will betray the second they can
House Dustin of Barrowton - Will betray the second they can
House Hornwood - Will betray the second they can
House Ryswell of the Rills.
House Stout of Goldgrass.
House Umber - Will betray the second they can
House Frey

Team Stannis:
The Mountain Clans(Flints, Liddles, Harclay, Knotts, Burley, Norrey and Wulls)
Queens Men
House Mormount
House Manderly
House Locke
House Glover
House Karstak (Thanks to Alys)
Some Ironborn captives

So with the Freys about to drown at the Battle of Ice, all the Boltons can rely on are their own men, Rysells and the Stouts....good luck with that. Not to mention Mance Raydar is dicing people on the inside as well as the hooded man.

Two corrections:-

1. Bolton has half of House Umber. Stannis has the other half.
2. House Mormont, not Mormount

[David C. Hunter]

Vympel, on 14 July 2012 - 01:42 AM, said:

Two corrections:-

1. Bolton has half of House Umber. Stannis has the other half.
2. House Mormont, not Mormount

Considering that the Umbers will not fight each other, that counts as a win for Stannis
I always put a 'u' in Mormont! Aggh! Thanks for the fix

[Lord Reaper of Pyke]

Vympel, on 14 July 2012 - 01:42 AM, said:

Two corrections:-

1. Bolton has half of House Umber. Stannis has the other half.
2. House Mormont, not Mormount

Thats true but IIRC, Stannis's part of the Umbers are green boys and old men.

[OrcusOfUndeath]

Lord Reaper of Pyke, on 14 July 2012 - 09:14 PM, said:

Thats true but IIRC, Stannis's part of the Umbers are green boys and old men.

That's not true. Stannis has the green boys, and Boltons have the old men.

Edited by OrcusOfUndeath, 15 July 2012 - 05:27 AM.

[Seed]

Kings In The North, on 04 June 2012 - 03:04 PM, said:

I think this sounds pretty plausible. I think the weak-link in whatever Roose's plans are, is Ramsey. In ways they're polar opposites: Roose is absolutely devoid of emotion or feeling, while Ramsey is a complete nutjob. I have a feeling that when push comes to shove, Ramsey is seriously going to mess up Roose's plans.

I can easily see Roose, devoid of emotion as he is, killing Ramsay (or at least having him killed) before he messes up Roose's plans.

[irishtemper]

Seed, on 17 July 2012 - 10:27 AM, said:

I can easily see Roose, devoid of emotion as he is, killing Ramsay (or at least having him killed) before he messes up Roose's plans.

Yeah or Ramsay's "boys" killing Ramsay when he orders them to go against his father...because there's no way what Roose tells Theon about how they were and still are his men doesn't come into play considering how god-damn psychopathic Ramsay is.

[TrueNorthman]

OrcusOfUndeath, on 18 June 2012 - 08:03 PM, said:

Isn't Davos likely already on his way to Skagos, as of tWoW?

I highly doubt that Davos/Rickon will factor into the battle that is to take place at the beginning of the tWoW. He is a POV character and his travels to Skagos and finding Rickon will most likely be taking place at the same time as the battle (3-4 chapters at least). IIRC the battle (as well as the one in Slaver's Bay) are to take place early in on in the book.
IMHO Stannis will have won the battle for the North by the time Rickon becomes relevant and Stannis will place him as rightful Lord of Winterfell....won't last long however with pending invasion of Others.