90 replies to this topic

[Toccs]

Because the plan to hold the North as we've seen it seems to be so flawed that it is obviously doomed to failure.  I can understand how the Freys, Lannisters and other Southron lords might think that they could exterminate and supplant the Starks and still hold the loyalty of the North through hostages, I can even see how Ramsay might think that would work, but Roose has always come across much as much smarter then that and he has lived in and been active in the politics of the North all his life.

Roose would know full well the amount of loyalty that Ned had with his bannermen.  For starters even if people believe "Arya" is in fact Arya, it is still blatantly apparent that she is being held against her will.  The hostages they have from the major houses are literally the only thing keeping them in line and as such they can clearly never be released.  So if they are never going to be released then they are really as good as dead and it is only a matter of time before their families come to that conclusion and rebel.
Just look at whats happened, the Mormonts, Glovers and mountain clans didn't even bother pretending to swear fealty to Bolton and instead set out to rescue Ned's daughter.  Half the Umbers came grudgingly and their loyalty is highly questionable and the other half are camped outside the walls setting traps.  Manderly swore fealty as a show and is already plotting to bring back Stark heirs and is killing and eating Freys under their very noses.

As I said, I can understand how the Freys, Lannisters and Ramsay might think this plan could work long term, but Roose Bolton must surely have known better.  So what is he up to?

[Lady Hodor]

Maybe Roose has a sort of Varys plan in mind, let Westeros tear itself apart, only for him to mould the ruins into a shape that he desires.
The North so far has suffered a lot of damage, but it keeps recovering. Mayhaps Roose needs more chaos in order for his plan to take form.
To do this, he lets people see the way Ramsay treats Jeyne, allows Ramsay to take on Stannis, and rejects the Northern Bannermen.
Add this together, and you've got the beginnings of yet another war in the North. War is something that people like Roose thrive in you see.

[Toccs]

Well one thing that always stood out to me was in the chapter when he took Theon away from Ramsay, Roose says something along the lines of "I will not live to see another son to manhood".  That was said separately from his talk of Ramsay killing any children by Fat Walda.  I always wondered why he would think he wouldn't live long enough since earlier it was mentioned that he was over 40, but that is hardly elderly even by Westerosi standards.

Maybe he's dying and just hoping to take everyone down with him?  Could be why he's such a fiend for leechings, to stay the prgress of some disease.

Edited by Toccs, 09 June 2012 - 07:54 AM.

[A bowl of brown]

I'm not he had a lot of options. Once he decided Robb was going to lose and to betray him his only option is to try and secure the North. He has no true born heirs left and he probably thinks if he can consolidate his power at Winterfell and beat Stannis he can start removing the other families that oppose him one by one.

I just don't see what other choices he had once he had betrayed Robb, if he jusr returns to the Dreadfort at some point the rest of the North will try to kill him so his only option was to try and ensure the loyalty of the other Northmen with force and fear.

He doesn't know Rickon and Bran are alive and he may have underestimated how evil Ramsay is and how much resistance there would be to his marriage with "Arya" whether others know she's a fake or not.

[Toccs]

A bowl of brown, on 09 June 2012 - 07:55 AM, said:

He doesn't know Rickon and Bran are alive and he may have underestimated how evil Ramsay is and how much resistance there would be to his marriage with "Arya" whether others know she's a fake or not.

I think that if he knows that Ramsay was the one to sack Winterfell, then it is highly likely he knows the details of what went down there, including the fake Stark kids.

[Lady Hodor]

Toccs, on 09 June 2012 - 07:52 AM, said:

Maybe he's dying and just hoping to take everyone down with him?  Could be why he's such a fiend for leechings, to stay the prgress of some disease.

That sounds a little too simular to what's happening with Jon Connington, who aims to conquer with Aegon before the greyscale takes him.
But I suppose it is possible. If Roose begins to migrate south and cause havoc there too then mayhaps he is crazed by his imminent death.

[the Scorpion Knight]

Toccs, on 09 June 2012 - 07:43 AM, said:

So what is he up to?

right now survinving the clusterfuck he's into( a haunted castle, cabin fever, very uncertain allies, and a serial killer as heir )

[Toccs]

Lady Hodor, on 09 June 2012 - 07:59 AM, said:

That sounds a little too simular to what's happening with Jon Connington, who aims to conquer with Aegon before the greyscale takes him.
But I suppose it is possible. If Roose begins to migrate south and cause havoc there too then mayhaps he is crazed by his imminent death.

Well all his enemies would be in the North, if the "taking everyone down with him" idea I postulated is correct, I don't really think he would need to go south.  But it's not really an idea I subscribe too, just a possibility I considered from his comments.  I really don't know what he's trying to gain.

Edited by Toccs, 09 June 2012 - 08:04 AM.

[TheFlayedMan]

Roose made his deal with Tywin, when it looked like the Lannisters were going to take control of the Iron Throne and stabilise Westeros after the war. He jumped ship and in the process had himself proclaimed Warden of the North. This would have made him the most powerful man in the North, except Tywin died and Cersei fucked up bad, effectively losing his allies whom he needs to control the Northern lords. And Stannis, who was considered all but out of the game, rose an army and marched on Winterfell, which he didn't expect surely.

[Toccs]

But my point is that even with those allies he never really had any hope of controlling the North and supplanting the Starks through hostages and threats, and he would have to have known that.

Tywin Lannister and Walder Frey didn't ever understand the way the North worked, but Roose Bolton surely did.

Edited by Toccs, 09 June 2012 - 08:17 AM.

[The Mountain that types]

I like this topic because im of the same thought process as you, What was the end game? there was no way this works long term no way do the northmen let themselves be lead long term just because of hostages.

there is only one way this can play out and that is war...maybe roose thinks that they will be the ones left to pick up the pcs of what is left?

nice topic though

[Free Northman]

Toccs, on 09 June 2012 - 07:52 AM, said:

Well one thing that always stood out to me was in the chapter when he took Theon away from Ramsay, Roose says something along the lines of "I will not live to see another son to manhood".  That was said separately from his talk of Ramsay killing any children by Fat Walda.  I always wondered why he would think he wouldn't live long enough since earlier it was mentioned that he was over 40, but that is hardly elderly even by Westerosi standards.

Maybe he's dying and just hoping to take everyone down with him?  Could be why he's such a fiend for leechings, to stay the prgress of some disease.

I was going to say something similar.

It seems to me Roose has a type of nihilistic theme going here. He is just screwing everyone for the hell of it. If it works, great, he'll be the Bolton that goes down in history as finally overthrowing the Starks, where all his predecessors failed.

But it has like a 1% chance of working. If it doesn't work - as it obviously never was going to work - well, then he'll just take as many of his enemies down with him as he can. Destroy everything, basically.

Either way, he doesn't seem to care much for life anyway.

Edited by Free Northman, 09 June 2012 - 08:28 AM.

[Toccs]

Free Northman, on 09 June 2012 - 08:28 AM, said:

Either way, he doesn't seem to care much for life anyway.

Do you think it could be the death of Domeric (and at Ramsay's hands) that caused this nihilistic turn in Roose?

I have a separate theory that could tie into this, that the Reek who died during aCoK was not the original Reek but was actually Domeric.  Which could not only explain why Roose is willing to bring everything even his own house to ruin and why he seemed to show a soft spot for Theon's plight even if he wasn't willing to fully put a stop to it.

[MikeDC]

Toccs, on 09 June 2012 - 08:16 AM, said:

But my point is that even with those allies he never really had any hope of controlling the North and supplanting the Starks through hostages and threats, and he would have to have known that.

Tywin Lannister and Walder Frey didn't ever understand the way the North worked, but Roose Bolton surely did.

He seemed pretty well in control of things until Stannis and Mance showed up. And for that matter, he seemed to have a pretty good grasp of how to keep the Karstarks happy. And the Dustins and Ryswells. And a faction of the Umbers. The rest may not love him, but the only one that looked ready to do anything about it was Manderly, and that's only after they figured out to get his son safe, get Rickon, and secure the support of Stannis.

So but for the unexpected event of Stannis showing up, the North was hardly in open rebellion. Probably he figured things would eventually have calmed down, the rest of the Stark kids would remain disappeared, and everything would turn out for him.

[Toccs]

The attitudes of the Northmen we've seen regarding "The Ned's girl" alone would indicate that holding "Arya" hostage to an abusive partner would not have been tolerated for long.  Remember that everyone in the North already knows what Ramsay did to Lady Hornwood.

Edited by Toccs, 09 June 2012 - 08:47 AM.

[MikeDC]

Toccs, on 09 June 2012 - 08:47 AM, said:

The attitudes of the Northmen we've seen regarding "The Ned's girl" alone would indicate that holding "Arya" hostage to an abusive partner would not have been tolerated for long.  Remember that everyone in the North already knows what Ramsay did to Lady Hornwood.

I don't know that Roose would really have cared too much if someone stepped up and offed Ramsay.

[Toccs]

Ramsay is essential to his hold of the North though, that's the point.  If someone kills Ramsay, then there is no Bolton married to the "Stark" in Winterfell and Roose can't marry her because he is married to Fat Walda.  Any long term Bolton claim to the North is hinged on Ramsay and everyone in the North hates Ramsay.

[LordBloodraven]

Roose wanted to save himself and become the most powerful lord in the north at the times of the Red Wedding. Now, with Tywin Lannister dead (it's fantastic how so much depended on the life of one man), and Stannis in the north, he's in deep shit because all the people with one brain cell can deduce that he had a part in the Red Wedding. Many northern lords lost kin in the Red Wedding, and all of them seems to want a Stark in Winterfell.

By the end of ADWD, with Manderlys, Freys and Ramsays marching against Stannis, it's harder to know what Roose is up to. He's too smart to die like a Vargo Hoat. I once believed that Roose wanted power but I think it's unlikely: Tywin wanted Tyrion's son to rule in the North and Roose couldn't coalesce the Northerners against the Lannisters since he's allied with them. The troops he sold to the Lannisters are by no means fool, and they will say how Roose sabotaged the Northern war plans. Now, it looks like he doesn't care about anything, not even himself. He doesn't give a shit and that's scary. Lord-Too-Fat-To-Sit-a-Horse should get the hell out of Winterfell, as soon as he could.

[TheFlayedMan]

I don't see why the idea of Roose assuming the role as Warden of the North is so ridiculous. With the war more or less over and the Lannisters in bed with the Tyrells, he had allied himself with the most powerful individual in the realm. Every single Stark is believed to be missing or dead. The North would be fools to rise up against House Bolton if all had gone to plan- Tywin ruling as Regent with Northern hostages and moulding Tommen into the leader he wants, while Roose takes some hostages for himself just to be sure. Unfortunately, Roose's only son is a sadist but he made the best of the situation and tied the know with the "last living Stark", securing full control over the North. And he also holds Moat Cailin, so if the Northerners were willing to sacrifice their hostages to try and remove the Roose, he could send off a raven asking for reinforcements, who wouldn't be held up at the castle.

Of course that unexpectedly fell to pieces and he's fucked.

Edited by TheFlayedMan, 09 June 2012 - 09:20 AM.

[LordBloodraven]

Tywin was going to screw Roose and he couldn't do nothing about it. Tywin wanted Tyrion's son by Sansa to be warden of the North, after Roose swept the North clean of ironborn