It's been 100% confirmed that the Red Wedding will be in Season 3.
And I would expect Season 4 to finish off with the final half/third of ASoS about halfway through and from that point that on that they will just work through AFFC and ADWD simultaneously.
Thats how they're written, the books might be split but it is still all happening at roughly the same time, so as far as adapting it goes they've got everything they need for all characters.
Ok, let me have a try.
Episode 1 needs to pick up on most of the principal characters. The major new characters will probably be introduced during the first third of the season.
3.01: Catelyn receives the news of her father's illness/death. Arya has a wolf dream in which she kills her pursuers. Jon meets Mance. Tyrion confronts Tywin. Ser Dontos vows to free Sansa. Jaime and Brienne are taken by the Brave Companions. Daenerys goes to the docks and meets Arstan. Davos is picked up by Salladhor Saan.
3.02: Arya is captured by the Brotherhood Without Banners. Jon and the Wildlings investigate the aftermath of the battle at the Fist of the First Men. Bran meets the Reeds. Sansa meets Margaery and Lady Olenna. Ser Jorah convinces Dany to go to Astapor. The Night's Watch is fleeing from the Others and Sam slays one.
3.03: Robb and Catelyn arrive at Riverrun; Lord Hoster's burial. Arya and the Outlaws at High Heart. Sansa and Margaery bond, but Ser Dontos warns Sansa of the Tyrells. Jaime and Brienne are brought to Vargo Hoat, who hacks off Jaime's hand. Davos plans to kill Melisandre and is taken into custody.
3.04: Robb plans to make amends with Lord Frey. Littlefinger leaves for the Vale and Tyrion is named Master of Coins. The Reeds tell Bran the story of the Tourney at Harrenhal. Dany inspects the Unsullied in Astapor.
3.05: Rickard Kastark kills Lannister hostages and is executed by Robb. Arya is brought before Beric Dondarrion; the Hound arrives and duels with Beric. Jon and the Wildlings scale the Wall. Melisandre visits Davos. Dany frees the slaves of Astapor.
3.06: Arya is kidnapped by the Hound. Sansa is wedded to Tyrion. Davos is named Lord; the burning of the leeches. Lord Mormont is killed at Craster's keep.
3.07 "Autumn Storms": Bran and Jon at Queenscrown; Jon escapes the Wildlings. Jaime and Brienne are brought to Roose Bolton at Harrenhal. Daenerys meets Daario Naharis and defeats Yunkai. Davos reads Lord Mormont's letter. Balon Greyjoy dies in a storm.
3.08: Robb, Catelyn and Arya at the Twins; the Red Wedding. Jon reaches Castle Black. Sam and Gilly are rescued by Coldhands.
3.09: The Lannisters discuss the Red Wedding. Sansa learns of Robb's and Catelyn's death. Arya and the Hound encounter Polliver; Sandor is wounded. The battle of Castle Black; Ygritte dies. Bolton departs Harrenhal and Jaime rescues Brienne. Dany besieges Mereen and learns of Arstan's and Jorah's secrets.
3.10: The Purple Wedding: Joffrey dies and Tyrion is taken captive. Sansa escapes with Dontos and meets Littlefinger on a boat. Arya leaves the Hound to die and boards a ship to Braavos. Jon witnesses Mance's army at the wall and is told by Maester Aemon that he must lead the Night's Watch. Bran meets Sam at the Nightfort and crosses the Black Gate.Davos sends Edric Storm away and confronts Stannis and Melisandre.
Some events probably need to be moved around a bit. There are some episodes in which little happens compared to others.
Great Line up. Pretty much agree. I do think a few small adjustments need to be made though. I'd slow down Jon's story and have it climax at the Queenscrown with Ygritte's Death (maybe Summer/Bran rips her up?) and end up just with Jon arriving back at the Wall. It closes up the Wilding part better in one season and gives breathing room to Jon. But it also means Bran's story is slowed down as well. I don't think that's a problem and Sam/Gilly's arrival back at Castle Black can be shifted quite easily.
Similarly, I don't think we need to see Arya taking a ship to Bravos. That's a lot of story for two episodes where the Purple Wedding is to happen as well. And it can be shifted back quite easily.
Also, I'd put the burning of the Leeches in the same episode as Balon's Death. I do think we will see Davos learning to read with Shireen (it's an interesting scene when he realizes what he is reading...), but when should this happen?
Also, you don't have any scenes with Theon and Ramsay which I guess we could see. I'm especially looking forward to a montage of Asha/Yara, Balon and Robb receiving parts of Theon... /wink.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=';)' />
After all, one would need to "count" all these episodes through and see if they work time-wise. But that's one thing the producers already do and which we can't really do anyways. But I am curious to compare your list with the final product.