Why the North can stay sovereign relatively easily...

[ACRStriker9]

If I'm Wyman Manderly, I'm looking at the possible outcomes of the upcoming battles surrounding Winterfell and thinking, "If this comes out at all optimistically, the North can be free again with a Stark at its throne very easily." Granted this is speculative and the Others could be storming through the North sooner than later but if not, the North need not sit under the yoke of a Southron king.

First off, you'll have a Stark. That's the important part. If Wyman has the most honest of intentions, he plans to honor his oath to his liege lord and make a dent in that huge debt the House Manderly owes the Starks. If that's the case he'll put Rickon on the throne (or another Stark, if Robb's little decree is ever brought to light) and the loyal houses will flock to him. If I were Manderly I'd start with just "Lord Stark of Winterfell." After the battle with the Boltons and Freys, you start talking to the heads of the other Northern houses. You have to figure the fiercely loyal mountain clans would be all about backing a protecting one of "the Ned's" children. So, boom you've got the Norreys, Flints, Wulls, Liddle, Burley, Knot, Harclay in one fell swoop. Then, speaking as Wyman here, you talk to House Mormont, House Reed, House Umber. At that point you have most of the North behind you and the rest you basically just defeated with the help of Stannis. The defeat of those houses also gives you an advantage as well because I'm sure there's a house looking to move up in the world and take over the Dreadfort for the exiled Bolton's and the big prize is sitting there waiting... The Twins.

If his intentions aren't the purest he's looking to become Regent of the North with Rickon in his care and really boost up the House Manderly to big time status. But honestly, I don't think that's what he's trying to do.

Anyway, so you have Lord Rickon and the whole North supporting him with your heavy calvary and siege engines at the ready. You take you're assembled army (unless the North is overrun with walking, blue-eyed, dead people) and you head to the Twins. I can only imagine the entire North wants revenge for that bit of murder. Most of the houses in the North and Riverlands were affected by that and the Twins are kind of strategically important. So, you beseige it. Send the crannogmen around the back to cut off their supply lines, batter it to the ground and kill every Frey left standing. Destroy them, tree and root, and put their name in the history books like the Reynes and the Tarbecks that the Lannisters wiped off the map.

At that point, with your alliance strong and Stannis worn thin, waiting for his sellswords you tell him the deal. "Listen Stannis, you're a good guy but we don't want you in the North. There's only one king in the North and he's a Stark (as little Mormont told Stannis in the book). But we'd love to help you claim the other 6 kingdoms. If you agree to leave the North sovereign, we'll be allies. We'll help you wipe out the pretender, incest-bred, abomination, Lannister king on the Iron Throne and then we'll return home. The Twins stay beholden to the North and everything else belongs to the Iron Throne and your descendants. You don't take this deal, our army will escort your army out of the Twins, or kill them however you like, and you can fight this war alone. Stuck in the Riverlands far from your base of power with your family at the Wall and exposed. Once your sellswords get here, I suppose you can try and retake the North but that's the wrong direction and even if you take the Twins you'll never get past Moat Caillin and the Crannogmen. Oh yeah, and Winter is coming."

I don't see how he'd refuse... Granted this plan depends on how the Wall holds up against the Others. Another wildcard is Sansa in the Vale. If she marries Harry the Heir and the Vale take up arms for her, like they clamored to do for the Young Wolf, the Stark contingent is in pretty good shape with the entire Vale unaffected by the War of Five Kings. Littlefinger holds the Riverlands as Lord Paramount. The South is in turmoil. Sansa could be the "more beautiful" lady sent to take Cersei off the throne.

Hopefully the North can be free of southern interference and paranormal ice beings.

[Gandalf The Gay]

sansa sucks

[Free Northman]

If I'm Wyman Manderly, I'm looking at the possible outcomes of the upcoming battles surrounding Winterfell and thinking, "If this comes out at all optimistically, the North can be free again with a Stark at its throne very easily." Granted this is speculative and the Others could be storming through the North sooner than later but if not, the North need not sit under the yoke of a Southron king.

First off, you'll have a Stark. That's the important part. If Wyman has the most honest of intentions, he plans to honor his oath to his liege lord and make a dent in that huge debt the House Manderly owes the Starks. If that's the case he'll put Rickon on the throne (or another Stark, if Robb's little decree is ever brought to light) and the loyal houses will flock to him. If I were Manderly I'd start with just "Lord Stark of Winterfell." After the battle with the Boltons and Freys, you start talking to the heads of the other Northern houses. You have to figure the fiercely loyal mountain clans would be all about backing a protecting one of "the Ned's" children. So, boom you've got the Norreys, Flints, Wulls, Liddle, Burley, Knot, Harclay in one fell swoop. Then, speaking as Wyman here, you talk to House Mormont, House Reed, House Umber. At that point you have most of the North behind you and the rest you basically just defeated with the help of Stannis. The defeat of those houses also gives you an advantage as well because I'm sure there's a house looking to move up in the world and take over the Dreadfort for the exiled Bolton's and the big prize is sitting there waiting... The Twins.

If his intentions aren't the purest he's looking to become Regent of the North with Rickon in his care and really boost up the House Manderly to big time status. But honestly, I don't think that's what he's trying to do.

Anyway, so you have Lord Rickon and the whole North supporting him with your heavy calvary and siege engines at the ready. You take you're assembled army (unless the North is overrun with walking, blue-eyed, dead people) and you head to the Twins. I can only imagine the entire North wants revenge for that bit of murder. Most of the houses in the North and Riverlands were affected by that and the Twins are kind of strategically important. So, you beseige it. Send the crannogmen around the back to cut off their supply lines, batter it to the ground and kill every Frey left standing. Destroy them, tree and root, and put their name in the history books like the Reynes and the Tarbecks that the Lannisters wiped off the map.

At that point, with your alliance strong and Stannis worn thin, waiting for his sellswords you tell him the deal. "Listen Stannis, you're a good guy but we don't want you in the North. There's only one king in the North and he's a Stark (as little Mormont told Stannis in the book). But we'd love to help you claim the other 6 kingdoms. If you agree to leave the North sovereign, we'll be allies. We'll help you wipe out the pretender, incest-bred, abomination, Lannister king on the Iron Throne and then we'll return home. The Twins stay beholden to the North and everything else belongs to the Iron Throne and your descendants. You don't take this deal, our army will escort your army out of the Twins, or kill them however you like, and you can fight this war alone. Stuck in the Riverlands far from your base of power with your family at the Wall and exposed. Once your sellswords get here, I suppose you can try and retake the North but that's the wrong direction and even if you take the Twins you'll never get past Moat Caillin and the Crannogmen. Oh yeah, and Winter is coming."

I don't see how he'd refuse... Granted this plan depends on how the Wall holds up against the Others. Another wildcard is Sansa in the Vale. If she marries Harry the Heir and the Vale take up arms for her, like they clamored to do for the Young Wolf, the Stark contingent is in pretty good shape with the entire Vale unaffected by the War of Five Kings. Littlefinger holds the Riverlands as Lord Paramount. The South is in turmoil. Sansa could be the "more beautiful" lady sent to take Cersei off the throne.

Hopefully the North can be free of southern interference and paranormal ice beings.

I love it.

I really don't get those posts referring to Stannis as an honorary Northman and all that nonsense. He is a Baratheon. And his seat is in the South.

The North WILL be free..

[xerex]

I don't see how he'd refuse...

Stannis would not refuse? :D funny thought, but Stannis had once already urgent need of allies (while sitting with something about 3.000 man on dragonstone), and he refused to side with the northmen, because he will not side with anyone who wants to take half his kingdom. So he would probably say, they shall go, and as soon as the Iron Throne is his return with his army to bring them back to his realm.

Another problem are the ironmen, if the north heads south once again, the north would be even more undefended. If the north wants to be independent, just kill the Boltons, make Rickon Lord and block Moat Cailin. As soon as Stannis leaves declare Rickon King.

[Lord Damian]

Stannis will be interesting to see when he hears of Aegon and then Dany and the dragons. Of course, he might be dead by then.

[DurararaFTW]

Stannis was unwilling to suffer Robb, he is not gonna suffer Rickon after he's the one that saved the North and had a lion's share in defeating Bolton and the Freys, his Onion Lord was the one that saved Rickon and Manderly promised Davos to declare for him if he did so, ditto with Alysane and the north clans.

Stannis wouldn't be Stannis if he let that go. And even then, unlike Manderly and the others, he heeds the threat from beyond the Wall, many of his men, plus his queen, his daughter and Melisandre are still on the Wall. There is no way Stannis is ever gonna let himself get escorted down to Moat Cailin and sent on his way. North will have to declare for him or kill him, those are their options.

[Free Northman]

Build a mighty fortress at Moat Cailin, make it the parmenent seat of a new Lord - known as Warden of the South.

Get Manderly to set up permanent patrols with his new navy of 50 ships, and name him Warden of the East. Get him to set up a trade deal with Braavos, supplying them with endless lumber resources in exchange for an alliance with the King of the North. (They have no lumber and this could solve that strategic weakness for them.)

Make the Greatjon Umber Warden of the North.

Make Robbert Glover Warden of the West, get him to set up a series of watchtowers along the Stony Shore to warn of Ironborn attacks well in advance.

Lock the entire North down and wait for anyone stupid enough to try and invade.

Oh, and set Bran up connected to the weirwood in Winterfell's godswood on a permanent basis. Then there will always be a Stark in Winterfell, and he has ten thousand eyes and one (based on the theory that Bran is ten times the greenseer that Bloodraven was).

Once all of the above is done, the North will be a fortress. Impregnable, as Sweetrobin likes to say.

[oscarinfw]

The North was independent until the Targaryens and their dragons made them swear fealty. Stannis is going to need those dragons on his side if he expects the North to swear fealty to him; a doubtful proposition as the likely Dragon owner(s) (Dany/?) probably have different ideas on who sits the Iron Throne.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

So the foregoing plans for Northern sovereignty assumes that there will be no Other attack _and_ that an independent Northern kingdom won't come into conflict with a certain Targaryen queen with three dragons at her disposal?

(Not to mention the assumption that the Northern lords would be willing to just chuck Stannis overboard right when he seems to be giving them everything that they could want in favor of a dream of independence that already failed a year before in spectacular fashion.)

[oscarinfw]

The North "lost" because of betrayals/"unwise passions". Robb went south in a vain attempt to "rescue" Dad and sisters. Then it turned into a campaign for Vengeance. If his armies had stayed north of the neck, what could the Lannisters do ?

If "the North" goes south again, it will be to destroy the Freys and no further.

Dragons are another story. Methinks the North will swear fealty to any King/Queen controlling Fire-breathing dragons.

[Lord Varys]

Manderly won't get his revenge with a Stark king. The Freys are down south, after all. And if the North remains independent, there is no chance whatsoever that the South is going to support with food during the winter, nor will they give a crap about the Others butchering all of them.

Manderly is smart enough to realize that.

[Tharvot]

The North will fall back in line when a southron army saves them (or what remains of them) from the Others (ie Dany & Co).

Even w/o Dany's help, Stannis would never allow the north to claim independence...especially if he is victorious over the Boltons and Freys, and all signs seem to point to him indeed being the victor in the end. He has essentially helped the north win back what they had before and will demand loyalty for his effort...I think he will get it assuming he isnt dead.

[Lord Varys]

Stannis has already the men of the mountain clans. They seem to be the fiercest Stark loyalists, and Manderly has struck a deal with Davos. Crowning another Stark king would not make much sense if a main goal is to get even with the southron traitors (i.e. the Freys and the Lannisters), and whoever is going to win the Iron Throne will eventually retake the North (if things went back, the Lannisters might prevail, which might very well lead to the eradication of House Stark and House Manderly).

Stannis may be a southerner, but he is the only southron king who came north to help the Night's Watch and hold the Wall. More importantly, by backing a pretender to the Iron Throne, the Northern Lords might be the ones marching south to deal with the Freys and Lannisters.

Stannis is effectively more than Robb could ever hope to be. Robb was a separatist, but if Stannis prevails, he might very well become the first 'Northern King' in the Iron Throne. Who will King Stannis appoint to his Small Council besides his Hand, Lord Seaworth?

Yes, his loyal household knights will get their share, but Stannis is not going to call the likes of Clayton Suggs and Justin Massey to court (although Ser Richard Horpe might remain there). So whom is Stannis going to reward, whom will he trust? The Northern Lords will be there, Manderly, Umber, Liddle, hell, even Alysane Mormont.

And if Shireen lives, Rickon Stark might even become Prince Consort. He would be the perfect for Stannis's heir.

[ACRStriker9]

Manderly doesn't really know about the Others coming, or about a lady half a world away with 3 dragons. Stannis doesn't "have" the Northern clans either. They're supporting his bid to bring justice to Theon Greyjoy and stop "Arya" from marrying Ramsay. They practically forced the march to Winterfell, despite Stannis' advisors saying they shouldn't, to save the fake Arya.

I don't see how Stannis marching back up North once he claims the throne to be a deterrent either. If I'm a northman I'm thinking, "We did all this work to be free of the treachery down south. Here's our chance. Once we take the Twins and Moat Cailin back, I'd like to see a southron army sans dragons come up here and invade us." It's not crazy to think that. They don't know there's dragons around, no one has ever taken Moat Cailin either.

[Lord Varys]

They will know/learn about the Others soon enough. And the mountain clans marched with Stannis to Deepwood Motte before they 'forced him' to march to Winterfell. Anyway, that was Stannis's decision. He was the guy who said 'I'll take Winterfell or die in the attempt.'

Stannis is about to become a symbol for the Northmen. He united the mountain clans. They did literally nothing to oust the Ironborn/deal with the Boltons before he went to them.

If they back Stannis, the Northern Lords have the chance to get their revenge along with lands and rewards. The Manderlys, for instance, might end up getting their lands at the Mander back. Revenge is Manderly's main motivation, but if Stannis prevails at Winterfell, the Iron Throne will be in his reach again. There is no way the Northern Lords will say fuck you, we've had enough. Stannis is also not going to oppose a Stark restoration at Winterfell. So there won't be any trouble.

Northern independence is a very stupid idea. Especially now (remember, the Others). But if there would be no Others/wildlings, winter will be much worse in the North if there is not coming any food in from the South.

[ACRStriker9]

I think I should've titled this topic, "Why Wyman Manderley might think the North can stay sovereign relatively easily and why he might act on that possibility." Too long?

Anyway. I don't think Stannis holds any sway with the Northern lords once a Stark is back. Maybe I'm wrong. I also don't think Stannis will be successful in getting south and trying for the throne. Maybe that preconceived notion is holding me back with the Baratheons. I think the true-born Baratheons will be dead before long. There's only 2 left. Nothing really special about them, they were just headed by a guy who was friends with Ned and was a good fighter.

Maybe, I played too much Axis and Allies lately and I'm thinking too much.

[Lord Varys]

Stannis won't march south immediately if he prevails at Winterfell. If he survives/wins the battle, he would have returned to the Wall anyway, to prepare for the imminent attack of the Others, but now he'll return definitely since there is no way that he is going to not avenge the assassination attempt of his friend, Jon Snow, nor will he suffer 'Lord Commander Bowen Marsh', or a war between the wildlings and the Night's Watch. Lastly, he most certainly is not going to leave Melisandre, his wife, his daughter and heir, 'Arya Stark', and Val in the hands of whoever wins the struggle at Castle Black.

You can't possibly make a greater gesture to win the trust/love of the Northern than support/personally oversee the garrison at the Wall.

The Northern Lords will support him for that, and if he prevails and deals with the Others, they'll march south with him to seat him on the Iron Throne.

I can't imagine Stannis abandoning the Wall, Jon, and the Night's Watch. He came north to protect the Realm. He marched south only to prevent his enemies in the North to march against him. He is not going to march down the Neck in the midst of winter which the men that survive the Battle of Winterfell.

Neither will Aegon or whoever ends up winning the coming war in the South with conventional means (i.e. without dragons) march north in the thick of winter. It would be suicide, especially since whoever controls the south has legitimate reason to believe that winter is going to finish Stannis off. Even Tywin believed that in ASoS.

Littlefinger's gamble to retake Winterfell in Sansa's names with the troops of the Vale is obviously a long-term plan which is supposed to come to fruition next spring. The Vale has fresh troops, but why on earth should they want to start a war in the North in the thick of winter?

[CrypticWeirwood]

Dragons are another story. Methinks the North will swear fealty to any King/Queen controlling Fire-breathing dragons.

Like to Prince Bran, you mean?

Yes, probably.

[ACRStriker9]

Stannis won't march south immediately if he prevails at Winterfell. If he survives/wins the battle, he would have returned to the Wall anyway, to prepare for the imminent attack of the Others, but now he'll return definitely since there is no way that he is going to not avenge the assassination attempt of his friend, Jon Snow, nor will he suffer 'Lord Commander Bowen Marsh', or a war between the wildlings and the Night's Watch. Lastly, he most certainly is not going to leave Melisandre, his wife, his daughter and heir, 'Arya Stark', and Val in the hands of whoever wins the struggle at Castle Black.

Agree here, except I wouldn't call Jon Snow and Stannis 'friends.' You have a good point here.

You can't possibly make a greater gesture to win the trust/love of the Northern than support/personally oversee the garrison at the Wall.

The Northern Lords will support him for that, and if he prevails and deals with the Others, they'll march south with him to seat him on the Iron Throne.

Agreed.

I can't imagine Stannis abandoning the Wall, Jon, and the Night's Watch. He came north to protect the Realm. He marched south only to prevent his enemies in the North to march against him. He is not going to march down the Neck in the midst of winter which the men that survive the Battle of Winterfell.

Agreed.

Neither will Aegon or whoever ends up winning the coming war in the South with conventional means (i.e. without dragons) march north in the thick of winter. It would be suicide, especially since whoever controls the south has legitimate reason to believe that winter is going to finish Stannis off. Even Tywin believed that in ASoS.

Littlefinger's gamble to retake Winterfell in Sansa's names with the troops of the Vale is obviously a long-term plan which is supposed to come to fruition next spring. The Vale has fresh troops, but why on earth should they want to start a war in the North in the thick of winter?

[Tyrion Blackfyre]

Great post! Only one thing I think will be different, I think they completely destroy the twins or maybe adragon does it in harrenhall style ;)

It's a great castle no doubt, but I think the northmen are hungry for every little bit of revenge they can get