Why the North can stay sovereign relatively easily...

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Anyway. I don't think Stannis holds any sway with the Northern lords once a Stark is back. Maybe I'm wrong.

Even if he didn't--and I have trouble imagining that Manderly, et al., wouldn't feel a large measure of gratitude to Stannis for executing the Boltons and returning Rickon to his rightful place--is Manderly going to follow up the desperate struggle to return a Stark to Winterfell with a coup d'etat against Stannis that will only divide the forces in the North further? Surely not. The one thing that we're told about the northern lords over and over again in ADWD is that they're tired of being on the losing side, and sending their brothers and sons out to die in a losing cause. They're not primed to take risks.

Meanwhile, there's a big thing that nobody's mentioned yet--Stannis has the backing of the Iron Bank. This is huge. Jon says that it might make Stannis the King of Westeros by itself. Justin Massey is off to Braavos to hire not less than 20,000 sellswords, thanks primarily to the backing of the Iron Bank. That makes him incredibly formidable, and not somebody that Lord Manderly would cast aside lightly. Stannis has far more to offer Manderly than a Stark in Winterfell.

[David C. Hunter]

Stannis won't march south immediately if he prevails at Winterfell. If he survives/wins the battle, he would have returned to the Wall anyway, to prepare for the imminent attack of the Others, but now he'll return definitely since there is no way that he is going to not avenge the assassination attempt of his friend, Jon Snow, nor will he suffer 'Lord Commander Bowen Marsh', or a war between the wildlings and the Night's Watch. Lastly, he most certainly is not going to leave Melisandre, his wife, his daughter and heir, 'Arya Stark', and Val in the hands of whoever wins the struggle at Castle Black.

You can't possibly make a greater gesture to win the trust/love of the Northern than support/personally oversee the garrison at the Wall.

The Northern Lords will support him for that, and if he prevails and deals with the Others, they'll march south with him to seat him on the Iron Throne.

I can't imagine Stannis abandoning the Wall, Jon, and the Night's Watch. He came north to protect the Realm. He marched south only to prevent his enemies in the North to march against him. He is not going to march down the Neck in the midst of winter which the men that survive the Battle of Winterfell.

Neither will Aegon or whoever ends up winning the coming war in the South with conventional means (i.e. without dragons) march north in the thick of winter. It would be suicide, especially since whoever controls the south has legitimate reason to believe that winter is going to finish Stannis off. Even Tywin believed that in ASoS.

Littlefinger's gamble to retake Winterfell in Sansa's names with the troops of the Vale is obviously a long-term plan which is supposed to come to fruition next spring. The Vale has fresh troops, but why on earth should they want to start a war in the North in the thick of winter?

Even if he didn't--and I have trouble imagining that Manderly, et al., wouldn't feel a large measure of gratitude to Stannis for executing the Boltons and returning Rickon to his rightful place--is Manderly going to follow up the desperate struggle to return a Stark to Winterfell with a coup d'etat against Stannis that will only divide the forces in the North further? Surely not. The one thing that we're told about the northern lords over and over again in ADWD is that they're tired of being on the losing side, and sending their brothers and sons out to die in a losing cause. They're not primed to take risks.

Meanwhile, there's a big thing that nobody's mentioned yet--Stannis has the backing of the Iron Bank. This is huge. Jon says that it might make Stannis the King of Westeros by itself. Justin Massey is off to Braavos to hire not less than 20,000 sellswords, thanks primarily to the backing of the Iron Bank. That makes him incredibly formidable, and not somebody that Lord Manderly would cast aside lightly. Stannis has far more to offer Manderly than a Stark in Winterfell.

This I hope bides Stannis some time. The Iron Bank would not have just been thrown in there only for Stannis to lose everything. It is essentially the equivalent of Stannis being backed by Braavos and the House of Black and White. Im sure that now that they have Stannis' commitment in blood that they will do all they can to protect their investment.

This will take some time because Massey still has to get to Braavos to confirm this(Along with Jeyne Poole - Arya returns).

Regardless though I believe Rickon and Osha will return with a Skagosi force to help with the Battle of Winterfell.

I do not believe Stannis will get to the wall again. Winter is fierce now and the journey to the wall will kill them at the moment. They will be held up at Winterfell for some time in which until further notice Rickon Stark will be made Lord of Winterfell which should really help Stannis' claim.

With Winterfell secure the North is more or less unified. I mean they still need to get the Bolton men at the Dreadfort, make sure the Karstaks are alright and handle everything at the Wall, but it is stable enough for now.

BUT, the difference now is that the North has tasted freedom and will not want to bend the knee to any southerner again.

We have to remember, even if the Boltons and Freys are defeated at Winterfell, most of the hostages are at the Twins. What will Stannis do next? Common Sense would be to do an exchange between the hostages of Winterfell and Hostages of the Twins. If they gets their prisoners back they may really love Stannis, but everything changes if Robb's will is presented to all the Northern houses at Winterfell. What if it declares Rickon or Jon Snow King in the North? Will the Northmen want to honor the Young Wolf's cause or will they bend the knee to the man who will probably win the North for them?

I believe that Stannis will be either one or two things:

1.) He will become the Savior of the North and will lead them along with Jon Snow in the final battle

2.) He will be a tragic hero because although he will win the north the northmen will betray him and kill him. It cant be both because neither side is compromising

I will say this about Stannis though, he is also in conflict:

Should he follow the Lord of Light or the Old Gods?

Should he give Theon to the flames or follow the Old Ways and execute him himself?

Should he fight for the Iron Throne in the south or fight for the realm in the North at the Wall?

Should he listen to the Queens Men or to the Northemen?

The only way Stannis will compromise is if something amazing happens when he beheads Theon. Whether the COTF make themselves known, the Tree talks, Bran talks into Stannis' head, or an Ice Dragon awakens(Jon Snow), Idk.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

BUT, the difference now is that the North has tasted freedom and will not want to bend the knee to any southerner again.

We have to remember, even if the Boltons and Freys are defeated at Winterfell, most of the hostages are at the Twins. What will Stannis do next? Common Sense would be to do an exchange between the hostages of Winterfell and Hostages of the Twins. If they gets their prisoners back they may really love Stannis, but everything changes if Robb's will is presented to all the Northern houses at Winterfell. What if it declares Rickon or Jon Snow King in the North? Will the Northmen want to honor the Young Wolf's cause or will they bend the knee to the man who will probably win the North for them?

I believe that Stannis will be either one or two things:

1.) He will become the Savior of the North and will lead them along with Jon Snow in the final battle

2.) He will be a tragic hero because although he will win the north the northmen will betray him and kill him. It cant be both because neither side is compromising

Again, I think that's a misreading of ADWD. We're told on a number of occasions that the northern lords are exhausted, aren't up to fighting a losing cause, etc., etc. Most of the major houses in the north are playing footsie with both sides: Karstark, Umber, Manderly. This isn't the last five minutes of Braveheart here, and Robb's death isn't seen as a heroic martyrdom in the cause of freedom. The northern lords are very risk averse now. They will happily compromise.

And honestly, I don't see how Robb's will changes that. What, do they think that Robb wouldn't have wanted his heir to serve as King in the North after him?

[Tharvot]

An interesting aside to the story would be what happens when Stannis finds out that there is a Targaryan vying for the Iron Throne (or 2 or 3 Targaryans should Aegon prove to be the real deal and Jon actually find out that R+L=J). All along, Stannis' mantra has been that he doesn't really want the Iron Throne but he must have it because it is law and it is his duty. Does he back down and side with one of the Targaryans? Hard to imagine that all his hard work will go for nothing, or at least that he will be willing to let it slide away. Perhaps thats where The Others come in to play: taking out Stannis and paving the way for a Targ to seat the throne.

[Lord Varys]

Yes, it's obviously that Manderly only decided to join Stannis because his ploy with fake Davos worked. Lord Wyman is all about family first, revenge second.

But we have reason enough to believe that Whoresbane Umber and others are not going to stick to Roose Bolton any longer than he must. The Northern Lords have no quarrel whatsoever with Stannis, but Roose and the Freys betrayed Robb butchered all many of their relatives at the Red Wedding. They want the hostages back, and they want to get even with them.

Even if Manderly would prefer to declare Rickon Stark King in the North, he would not be able to hold the North together in his name. Why should the other northern houses except him as Regent of young King Rickon? Stannis, on the other hand, could become the advocate of Stark interests if he prevails. He has both the stature and the determination to become the identifying figure for the Lords of the North.

Jon could have pulled off this as well. But if he had, he would have been stealing the birthright of his brothers. Had Stannis made Jon Lord of Winterfell, this would have caused problems for both of them as soon as Bran and Rickon reappeared.

If both Jon and Stannis learned about Jon's heritage, nothing would change for the two of them. Jon swore an oath, and he is not going to break it. But even if he wanted to. Knowing that you are the son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark, is not going to make all the Realm bow to you, nor will magically pop up thousands of Targaryen loyalists to convince you to make your claim to the Iron Throne. And with Aegon entering the game, Jon would only be second in the line of succession - and that only, if Rhaegar and Lyanna were married.

As to Aegon, I very much doubt that Stannis is going to hear about him in the near future. He is in the field, it's winter, and in the South people might also start to believe that he is dead (if Stannis ends up faking his death, or the Boltons write false letters to KL as well).

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

I don't see Stannis bending the knee to any rival for the throne at this point. Maybe once, before A Clash of Kings, he would have done so--although even then it doesn't occur to Stannis to champion Viserys' cause, even though he knew that V claimed the throne. Back then Melisandre was just a useful tool for him to claim his rights. But since he murdered his brother and lost the Battle of the Blackwater, he's been talking like a true believer. He calls the Others the foe that he was born to fight. So having been anointed by the One True God as the One True King of Westeros, how could he back down now? He can't. He'll keep fighting to the bitter end, because that's exactly the kind of person that Stannis Baratheon is.

And Lord Varys makes a good point: Stannis is currently above intra-Northern squabbles about which lord should have rights to what, so he can act like a neutral arbiter (so much more so because of his widely known reputation for being just and following the law). Lord Manderly can't do that, and so there would be people who oppose Manderly becoming Regent for the King in the North simply because it means that Manderly has an advantage over, say, the Umbers.

[Faint]

It occurs to me that communication in the middle of winter severely undermines Stannis' cause. Think now of a scenario where Stannis defeats the Boltons but loses most of his men in the process. Meanwhile, outside of Winterfell, Stannis is assumed dead (perhaps even as a consequence of Stannis himself, having tried a form of the Trojan Horse to gain access to the castle). Justin Massey arrives at Castle Black only to find Jon Snow dead and a letter telling of Stannis' death and defeat at the hands of the Boltons. And what's more, most of Stannis' men at the Wall have perished after all hell broke loose following the announcement of Ramsay's letter and the assassination of the Lord Commander. I also worry about Shireen's fate at the Wall, so long as she remains in the vicinity of the Wildings, with Val having made clear that they don't exactly have kind thoughts about her. Now we're in a situation where Stannis is depending on Massey still following through with his orders and fighting on, when the author has already spent a great deal of time establishing in the previous book that Massey is not one of Stannis' most fervent supporters and is actually quite the pragmatist.

[Lord Varys]

Yes, it might backfire. On the other hand, the deciding factor at the Wall will be Melisandre. What is she going to do? If she believes Stannis dead, things might go bad for Selyse and Shireen since their fate is not that important to Mel. But if she does not believe it (or refuses to believe it) - and honestly, the letter is not all that convincing - Stannis's cause will not crumble at the Wall. And Mel and the wildlings are most certainly going to deal with Bowen Marsh's cabal. Remember, GRRM has already established Mel's belief that her shadow children will really, really powerful. If cornered, Melisandre will deal with them all.

I'd be surprised if Massey arrived before things have been settled one way or the other at the Wall. Mel/Selyse/Shireen, the wildlings, and Jon's faction among the NW have only one choice. Act under the assumption that Stannis is still alive. Ramsay and Roose intend to kill them all.

As to Massey's loyalty:

The man may want to gain something from Stannis. But this is only natural. Massey, Horpe, and Suggs had any opportunity to abandon Stannis after the Blackwater. They didn't. I'd be surprised if he did it now. Especially if he grasps the full meaning of Stannis's contract with the Iron Bank. More importantly, Massey might not travel alone to Braavos. If Selyse and Ser Axell are not really as stupid as people think they are, they (and maybe Shireen as well) will accompany Massey. To ensure that things go as planned. If Stannis is truly dead, Queen Shireen I and Queen Regent Selyse Baratheon might actually return to Westeros at the head of Braavosi naval force.

And if Jon is already resurrected/healed by then, he might also send his men (wildlings/NW with them to get food and stuff from Braavos to Eastwatch).

[Faint]

Well, it will be interesting, either way. Melisandre's first inclination, I'm sure, will be to check her fire . . . where she hasn't seen a glimpse of Stannis in weeks. As for the rest, that's rather unpredictable. There are various factors to take into account. The first, and most important in my view, is that Melisandre is the only POV at the Wall so she can't leave.

But as to the time-line: I actually think it quite likely that Massey arrives at Castle Black after Jon has been assassinated and before he is brought back. Based on events in the latest Theon chapter, that seems the most likely possibility. This does two things: It prevents 'Arya Stark' from being exposed and it might compel Massey to take her with him to Braavos where 'Arya Stark' will end up meeting Arya Stark (I'm a sucker for that storyline and am hesitant to give it up).

Now, back to Melisandre for a moment. Why should it be assumed that she will think Stannis is alive? After all, she has proclivity to misinterpret her fires, does she not? What if she sees a vision of Ramsay holding Stannis' sword?

As background to my point, I have a strong belief that Stannis is going to fake his death and give Manderly his sword as a proof that he has been defeated. This, I imagine, is what will have compelled Ramsay to write his letter in the first place.

So, to recap how I see events going:

1. Stannis sends Massey to the Wall.

2. Stannis and his men (along with Manderly) ambush the Freys and slaughter their host.

3. Manderly and some of Stannis' men (dressed as Freys) return to Ramsay carrying Stannis' sword and also informing him that Theon and 'Arya Stark' have been sent to the Wall.

4. Ramsay writes his letter to Jon Snow proclaiming victory and demanding the return of Theon and 'Arya.'

5. Some time later, the rest of Stannis' force infiltrates Winterfell with the help of his men on the inside who are posing as Freys along with Manderly's men, and the Boltons are defeated and slaughtered.

6. Jon receives the letter from Ramsay.

7. Jon is assassinated and all hell breaks loose at the Wall.

8. Justin Massey arrives at the Wall with 'Arya Stark.'

[xerex]

So, to recap how I see events going:

1. Stannis sends Massey to the Wall.

2. Stannis and his men (along with Manderly) ambush the Freys and slaughter their host.

3. Manderly and some of Stannis' men (dressed as Freys) return to Ramsay carrying Stannis' sword and also informing him that Theon and 'Arya Stark' have been sent to the Wall.

4. Ramsay writes his letter to Jon Snow proclaiming victory and demanding the return of Theon and 'Arya.'

5. Some time later, the rest of Stannis' force infiltrates Winterfell with the help of his men on the inside who are posing as Freys along with Manderly's men, and the Boltons are defeated and slaughtered.

6. Jon receives the letter from Ramsay.

7. Jon is assassinated and all hell breaks loose at the Wall.

8. Justin Massey arrives at the Wall with 'Arya Stark.'

What about Mance Rayder, he's mentioned in the letter as well (and Stannis believes he's dead)?

[Faint]

What about Mance Rayder, he's mentioned in the letter as well (and Stannis believes he's dead)?

That one I haven't worked out yet. I don't imagine Mance Rayder is dead though, in fact, I very much doubt it.

Actually, after reading the letter over again, I think I may have two possibilities for you.

Here is the letter with the relevant parts in bold:

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell. I want my bride back.

I want the false king’s queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it. It was signed, Ramsay Bolton, Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.

Things to consider:

1. The letter writer thinks or is lying about Stannis being defeated. He specifically mentions the magic sword and seven days of battle.

2. The letter writer knows that Mance Rayder was not burned to death but in fact sent to Winterfell to save Arya Stark and had six companions with him (very specific).

3. The letter writer thinks 'Arya Stark' and Theon Greyjoy have been sent to the Wall.

3. The letter writer knows about Val and about Mance Rayder's son.

Who could possibly know all those things together?

I see only two options: Mance Rayder or Ramsay Bolton after having tortured the information out of Mance Rayder.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

I assumed that the wildling women knew who Mance Rayder was, so Ramsay could have gotten all that from capturing and torturing one of them. It's possible that Rayder got away before Ramsay could get his hands on him.

[Faint]

I assumed that the wildling women knew who Mance Rayder was, so Ramsay could have gotten all that from capturing and torturing one of them. It's possible that Rayder got away before Ramsay could get his hands on him.

That's a fair guess. Either way, no matter how removed, the information in the letter could only be known by Mance Rayder or somebody he would have told. There are others that know some of the information (i.e., Melisandre, Theon) but not quite all of it.

[Koekfabriek]

Great post! Only one thing I think will be different, I think they completely destroy the twins or maybe adragon does it in harrenhall style ;)

It's a great castle no doubt, but I think the northmen are hungry for every little bit of revenge they can get

Would be great if the North completely destroys every memory of the Frey's, destroy the castle but leaves the bridge intact and put a sign on both sides of the bridge saying: Winter has come and/or the North remembers.

[Free Northman]

In my reread of Dance I have noted some subtle hints earlier in the book about Stannis's current campaign.

Specifically, in Jon's chapter where he reads the message about all the northmen joining Stannis and their numbers reaching 5000 and growing every day, Jon thinks the following:

He wasn't sure how he felt about Stannis marching on Winterfell. Winterfell had been involved in many battles in the past, but never where one side or another didn't have a Stark in their ranks.

This point shows us that far from fully endorsing Stannis's role in the North, Martin is laying subtle hints that Stannis isn't the one who is supposed to win Winterfell back. It must be a Stark.

Jon then continues by thinking that Stannis should either move immediately for Winterfell, or abandon the attempt completely.

Again, we know that Jon gave Stannis the correct advice by not attacking the Dreadfort, but going to free Deepwood Motte instead. We can safely assume that Jon is communicating Martin's thoughts here, along with a bit of foreshadowing of what could lead to Stannis's failure.

As it turns out, Stannis TRIES to go straight to Winterfell, but is stopped short by a massive snowstorm, which prevents him from achieving this goal. In the end, he is forced to do what Jon believed would be disastrous, which is delaying his attack on Winterfell.

I believe the sense of unease at a non-Stark trying to win back Winterfell, coupled with Stannis's forced delay in moving on Winterfell provide a compelling hint that Stannis will not succeed in taking Winterfell.

He may well win the Battle of Ice, but I don't think he will be part of the force that eventually takes back Winterfell. Either he will die in the coming battle, or something will prevent him from continuing on to Winterfell.

As Jon hinted, it will be a Stark that takes back Winterfell, not Stannis.

[Lord Varys]

If Stannis takes Winterfell, he will do so after striking a deal with Brandon Stark of Winterfell. What do you think the whole execution thing on the island is going to lead to? Bran wants Stannis and Theon there to reveal himself through the weirwood tree. Bran and Bloodraven have to get to Stannis to organize some resistance against the Others. He is the only one who actually believes that these things exists. And Jon and the Night's Watch/wildlings are not enough. Even if Jon would not be dead right now.

The fact that has never been a battle at Winterfell without a Stark has to do with the fact that there never was no Stark in Winterfell/in the North.

If Bran does not want to kill Theon and/or Stannis on that island, they will struck a deal. And Theon will be forgiven, I think, if Bran himself speaks for him. Thinking about Asha's first chapter in ADwD, my guess is that Bran is going to intervene personally in the coming battle after he has struck a deal with Stannis. Remember the line about the greenseers being able to use walking trees in the old times?

And Bran will also be the one who provides Stannis with knowledge about those speculative secret passages into Winterfell. After all, he should now know more than anyone else about the history of that castle.

Lastly, Bran is going to tell Stannis about Manderly, Davos, and Rickon. Remember that big weirwood tree Davos passed by when Glover delivered him to Manderly?

[Free Northman]

If Stannis takes Winterfell, he will do so after striking a deal with Brandon Stark of Winterfell. What do you think the whole execution thing on the island is going to lead to? Bran wants Stannis and Theon there to reveal himself through the weirwood tree. Bran and Bloodraven have to get to Stannis to organize some resistance against the Others. He is the only one who actually believes that these things exists. And Jon and the Night's Watch/wildlings are not enough. Even if Jon would not be dead right now.

The fact that has never been a battle at Winterfell without a Stark has to do with the fact that there never was no Stark in Winterfell/in the North.

If Bran does not want to kill Theon and/or Stannis on that island, they will struck a deal. And Theon will be forgiven, I think, if Bran himself speaks for him. Thinking about Asha's first chapter in ADwD, my guess is that Bran is going to intervene personally in the coming battle after he has struck a deal with Stannis. Remember the line about the greenseers being able to use walking trees in the old times?

And Bran will also be the one who provides Stannis with knowledge about those speculative secret passages into Winterfell. After all, he should now know more than anyone else about the history of that castle.

Lastly, Bran is going to tell Stannis about Manderly, Davos, and Rickon. Remember that big weirwood tree Davos passed by when Glover delivered him to Manderly?

Why would Bran do all of this with Stannis when Jon is the true King and Azor Ahai reborn?

Why use the fire worshipping Stannis for this, who is a false hero and not even a northman?

Also, why would Bran suddenly forgive Theon? The old Gods are harsh. And the greenseers aren't Budhist pacifist saints. They use blood sacrifice and are governed by the iron sensibilities of the old North.

Vengeance is a virtue to them. Bran doesn't want to forgive Theon. He wants to give him what's coming to him.

[The Frision Wolf]

You guys have to look at the bigger picture here !

[Free Northman]

You guys have to look at the bigger picture here !

Exactly. The bigger picture is Jon and Daenerys.

Stannis is a sideshow.

[Lord Varys]

Who cares about the true king? The Others won't, and neither will Bran or Bloodraven, regardless of what they may know or not know. And even if Jon would not be dead. He is nothing more than a Lord Commander of the Night's Watch who was violently disposed. He cannot make a bid for any throne right now, nor would he if he got the chance.

Daenerys Targaryen is Azor Ahai. But she is not in Westeros. Bran and Bloodraven will have make due with the people they can reach.

As to Bran:

I'd be honestly surprised if he would want Theon's head. The boy is not yet ten. I really hope he is not as detached from humanity to kill a man who was more or less a member of his family.

And Stannis, well, yeah, he burned the godswood of Storm's End, but so what? Bran is not a god, and Stannis has never done him any harm. So why would he and Bloodraven not try to recruit Stannis to their cause. The share the same goal. To save the Realm from the Others.