402 replies to this topic

[Tears of Lys]

Brady, on 26 June 2012 - 08:33 AM, said:

Guys, I'm not saying Titus Pullo is right, but I saw this on the drive home from work today.

Yeah, but that's just typical rush hour down there, isn't it?  

[paddington]

Prince Alexander, on 26 June 2012 - 08:35 AM, said:

Well, I'm not going all out apocalyptic on this. The scarcity would become more evident gradually. Plenty of time to learn to adjust.
.

I worry that the difference between being okay, and being in trouble has become so narrow recently.  That the gradient would have to be almost flat not to cause social problems.

[Prince Alexander]

DanteGabriel, on 26 June 2012 - 08:36 AM, said:

Yup. The poor and the middle classes would feel the pinch while the rich, as ever, manipulate the system to ensure their comfort.

paddington, on 26 June 2012 - 08:43 AM, said:

I worry that the difference between being okay, and being in trouble has become so narrow recently.  That the gradient would have to be almost flat not to cause social problems.

Meh, I see plenty of room for belt tightening (in the middle class). Once it comes to a point of threat, rather than benefit, I'll either eat my shorts on this one, or start a revolution.

[What Is Dead Already Died]

We have alternatives that could easily be rolled out to replace oil, the more expensive option, hydrogen or the cheaper one, Nat Gas. More importantly though is the fact we aren't at peak oil, or near it we still have years before we hit it. Hence why proven supplies are rising in many non-opec countries. We may have hit peak oil for conventional oil (we still probably haven't), but non-conventional usage has just begun.

oil has just begun. A reason why consumption is at all time highs yet oil prices aren't.

Edited by What Is Dead Already Died, 26 June 2012 - 09:02 AM.

[Memory Lane]

More importantly, we don't need to find and extract enough oil & gas to completely replace the amount we're using right now. We just need to extract enough to let rising prices shift people into different patterns of transportation and residential dwelling, just like how cheap gas enabled the suburbanization of America back in the 1950s and 1960s.

What is dead already died said:

We have alternatives that could easily be rolled out to replace oil, the more expensive option, hydrogen or the cheaper one, Nat Gas.

There's also coal-to-liquid fuels, something that South Africa uses for a good chunk of their liquid fuels production but which falls into the category of "viable, but too expensive when there's a lot of conventional oil sloshing around the markets". Biofuels as well, although I doubt they'd ever replace a significant chunk of oil without ecological consequences from expanded agriculture.

[LuisDantas]

Prince Alexander, on 26 June 2012 - 08:16 AM, said:

Arguments of assumption validity, scaremongering and time relevance aside...

I wouldn't mind for us to experience oil/energy scarcity. We're a society accepting overabundance and wastefulness as norms. I'd like to see us try to do more with less.

I think I see where you are coming from. Unfortunately, I fear we have already gone too far to deal with scarcity with anything resembling grace.

[What Is Dead Already Died]

All good points

Falling Bass, on 26 June 2012 - 10:02 AM, said:

Biofuels as well, although I doubt they'd ever replace a significant chunk of oil without ecological consequences from expanded agriculture.

Like you said this would cause problems. Another one is if we switched enough farm land to growing bio fuels we'd turn ourselves from the largest oil importer the the largest food importer.

[ericxihn]

Oil's going to get more expensive. Demand is rising and we're running out of those cheap, easily accessible reserves where you stick a straw in and oil and petroleum comes gushing out.

That said, there are enormous unconventional reserves that we've known about for a long time but didn't have the technology (or high enough oil prices) to extract. We're not going to suddenly find ourselves unable to run cars. Instead, we'll get steadily increasing fuel costs forcing us away from the the sprawl and suburbia that's been the norm for the past 50 years. I'd worry about global warming before peak oil.

[WrathOfTinyKittens]

Titus, why did you never address any of my arguments from the last thread? Specifically your point that the money supply is subject to the whole laws of thermodynamics thing. (which is wrong, btw)

Actually, you're quite interested in putting your own views out there and trolling, but when I try to debate you sensibly, you ignore me in favor of accusing others of a long and ironic list of logical fallacies.

[Kaldaur]

Frankly, I see our way of life changing when it comes to transportation and work. With the increase in video-conferencing and online communications, people won't have to go to a physical workplace in order to get things done. A lot of the things that we take for granted or as acceptable will be altered, and that's not a bad thing.

Can't speak about the oil crisis as I don't know too much about it, but we'll survive. We always do.

[What Is Dead Already Died]

Kaldaur, on 26 June 2012 - 10:42 AM, said:

Can't speak about the oil crisis as I don't know too much about it, but we'll survive. We always do.

Until we don't.

Edited by What Is Dead Already Died, 26 June 2012 - 11:50 AM.

[Slick Mongoose]

What Is Dead Already Died, on 26 June 2012 - 11:50 AM, said:

Until we don't.

True.

http://en.wikipedia....ropic_principle

Edited by Mangosta Pulida, 26 June 2012 - 11:59 AM.

[Former Lord of Winterfell]

EricCech, on 26 June 2012 - 10:17 AM, said:

Oil's going to get more expensive. Demand is rising and we're running out of those cheap, easily accessible reserves where you stick a straw in and oil and petroleum comes gushing out.

That has been happening for a very long time.  I remember in 1980 people saying that we were going to run out of oil by 1987.  Hasn't happened.  Reserves that weren't economical to recover when oil was dirt cheap are economical now, so reserves expand.  And as the price of recoverable oil goes up, alternatives will become more economical, just as harder to recover oil reserves also became more recoverable over time.

The only concern I have are artificial (rather than market) restraints on alternative sources of energy.  Specifically, nuclear.  It takes so damn long to build a plant in this country (thought the French seem to do it extraordinarily well) that the lead time to make up for declining oil production presents a real problem.

[RWHamel]

I'm betting that before we run out of oil, we make the planet uninhabitable. Problem sorted.

[Shryke]

Former Lord of Winterfell, on 26 June 2012 - 12:16 PM, said:

That has been happening for a very long time.  I remember in 1980 people saying that we were going to run out of oil by 1987.  Hasn't happened.  Reserves that weren't economical to recover when oil was dirt cheap are economical now, so reserves expand.  And as the price of recoverable oil goes up, alternatives will become more economical, just as harder to recover oil reserves also became more recoverable over time.

The only concern I have are artificial (rather than market) restraints on alternative sources of energy.  Specifically, nuclear.  It takes so damn long to build a plant in this country (thought the French seem to do it extraordinarily well) that the lead time to make up for declining oil production presents a real problem.

Many of the issue with nuclear are NIMBY bullshit.

[paddington]

I'd be a little unhappy about a nuclear reactor going up in my back yard.

[Seli]

As far as I know there are plenty of fossil fuels left, even if convenient oil runs out. It is probably not the best idea to use them though, the waste seems to be quite dangerous for the economy.

Of course a lot of countries are already examining ways to lower dependency on fossil fuels. They are much more useful as a source material anyway.

[What Is Dead Already Died]

If you grew up in the NJ/NYC area you lived within 50 miles of a reactor. I was one of those, and will be again soon, people and can confirm I do not have 4 eyes.

[Ken Stone]

What Is Dead Already Died, on 26 June 2012 - 03:01 PM, said:

If you grew up in the NJ/NYC area you lived within 50 miles of a reactor. I was one of those, and will be again soon, people and can confirm I do not have 4 eyes.

Do you have any super powers?  That's the upside to living next to a nuclear facility that often is over looked.

[Titus Pullo]

What Is Dead Already Died, on 26 June 2012 - 09:01 AM, said:

We have alternatives that could easily be rolled out to replace oil, the more expensive option, hydrogen or the cheaper one, Nat Gas. More importantly though is the fact we aren't at peak oil, or near it we still have years before we hit it. Hence why proven supplies are rising in many non-opec countries. We may have hit peak oil for conventional oil (we still probably haven't), but non-conventional usage has just begun.

Incorrect. Every assertion. If not, please trot out data to support your claim, and I'll be happy to show where you miss the mark. We most certainly are at peak.

Where are "proven" supplies rising? Be sure they are "proven" and "economically recoverable." Further, are they rising to a factor of offsetting dying existing capacity? The IEA doesn't seem to agree with you.

It remains a question of net energy. Unconventionals return about 1/3 the efficiency of light sweet crude. Also, natural gas is not crude, and doesn't supply 1/100th the uses.

What we have learned, without a doubt, is that there's plenty of crap oil. But the world can't run the same on triple digit oil prices necessary to harvest it.

Edited by Titus Pullo, 26 June 2012 - 04:02 PM.