72 replies to this topic

[E-Ro]

This is something I have been wondering about for a while, if robb took all 18,000 northmen and the riverlords he picked up along the way to battle tywin what would have happened? did he have the strength to take on tywin? Tywins army was 20,000 strong this means they would be matched for numbers. If robb won on the green fork what would have happened, if tywin is captured are the lannisters finnished? Also tyrion would not be able to go to kings landing and be hand witch means stannis would take kings landing in clash. Also if Tywin is taken would jaime be dumb enough to throw his army at robbs in a foolish attack? What does everyone think would this have worked or not.

[Kernest]

The question here is could he have won, but lets assume that he wins there with heavy losses, then gathers up enough horses to follow through with his original plan of taking all his horse to Riverrun to kick the living daylights out of Jaime's host. Of course he could not have gotten there before Jaime received word of his fathers loss, but if he managed to pretend that he was with his main host, he could have pulled off whispering wood, though perhaps not the battle of the camps.

It all depends on whether he could have won or not...

[Bran the Deciduous]

If Robb does not cross at the Twins he only has the Freys with him, plus the northern army. That is around 22,000 men, so about the size of Tywin's army.

I've no idea who would win the battle.

Tywin won easily enough against Bolton but obviously Robb would have all his horse with him.

Robb never wins a set piece battle in the books, if you would. He always wins through either strategic (WW) or operational (Oxcross) surprise. As it is unlikely he will surprise Tywin (Roose failed) it would just be a slogging match and hard fought either way. Tywin was very confident of victory in the event of such an encounter, for what its worth.

Losing at the GF puts the main lannister army and their most important leader out of the picture (probably) and opens the way to KL. It doesn't cut lannister communications in half like the WW does though, or expose their own lands. It does cut them off from their king though.

I think on balance a Stark win at the GF would have been better than the WW.

Edited by Bran the Cute, 27 June 2012 - 01:03 PM.

[E-Ro]

I thought the reason Roose was so easily beaten apart from to few heavy cavalry was because he was really holding back. As for robb never winning a pitched battle this is true but the only pitched battle tywin wins is the green fork. Robb has some great commanders with him they would never fall for Tywins little trick on the left flank, meaning robbs left will obliterate them while the other parts of his army fight Tywins center and right tywin would have to commit his reserves to prevent the left from collapsing and the northern infantry from rolling up his army. Tywin is not that Great he is more a politician. Also if robb can defeat tywin does that mean he would get greyjoy support?

[Bran the Deciduous]

E-Ro, on 27 June 2012 - 11:19 AM, said:

I thought the reason Roose was so easily beaten apart from to few heavy cavalry was because he was really holding back. As for robb never winning a pitched battle this is true but the only pitched battle tywin wins is the green fork. Robb has some great commanders with him they would never fall for Tywins little trick on the left flank, meaning robbs left will obliterate them while the other parts of his army fight Tywins center and right tywin would have to commit his reserves to prevent the left from collapsing and the northern infantry from rolling up his army. Tywin is not that Great he is more a politician. Also if robb can defeat tywin does that mean he would get greyjoy support?

I don't really agree.

However, if the situation is as you say, why didn't Robb see things like this?

[E-Ro]

Bran the Cute, on 27 June 2012 - 11:23 AM, said:

I don't really agree.

However, if the situation is as you say, why didn't Robb see things like this?

What dont you agree with? As for why robb didnt see things this way he wanted Jaime hostage as fast as possible to trade for his father, how could he have known eddard would be executed.

[Bran the Deciduous]

Your whole post.

There is a thread, 'Tywin as a Battle Commander' by the Trumpet of Joramun where I've kind of wittered already about the GF so I will refrain from doing so again.  

But Tywin and a dozen or so westerling lords, potential captives after a victory over the main lannister army, work just as well as a trade for Eddard.

My recollection from GoT was that Robb planned his strategy around the idea that he would be unlikely to defeat Tywin and so it was preferable to try and surprise the weaker lannister force, which would not suspect a crossing at the Twins, had a poorer general and was vulnerable owing to the need to besiege RR. He still had some hopes for victory over Tywin with the main force, but wasn't willing to put all his eggs in that basket.

Edited by Bran the Cute, 27 June 2012 - 01:04 PM.

[Black Wolf Smith]

Lets say Rob wins and captues Tywin, Tyrion doesn't be come acting hand, Jaime and Rob bloody each other....

Then Stannis takes KL, then destroys whats left of Jaime and Rob. The Tyrells back away, and we only have 2 books, 3 at most.

[E-Ro]

Bran the Cute, on 27 June 2012 - 11:40 AM, said:

Your whole post.

There is a thread, 'Tywin as a Battle Commander' by the Trumpet of Joramun where I've kind of wittered already about the GF so I will refrain from doing so again.  

But Tywin and a dozen or so westerling lords, potential captives after a victory at over the main lannister army, work just as well as a trade for Eddard.

Yes, but attacking riverun and getting jaime is faster then going full strength to the green fork he wanted Eddard back as fast as possible. I will check the other thread. Also I feel strongly that tywin is overated as a general. And why is it unlikely they would beat tywin?

[Edmure Floppy-Fish Tully]

@Bran the Cute

Tywin had over 5,000 heavy horse in the Green Fork, plus over 2,000 light horse, many pikes and longbows. A full-on battle against that host with Robb's own host (with the Freys it was slightly over 20,000) was bloody business, and likely impossible. And Tywin chilled out at the reserve so he was not easy to capture.

If Riverrun fell, the Lannisters had a lot more hostages at their disposal, plus the Riverlords would have been severely weakened (more than what they were) and likely would not have supported Robb as eagerly as they did when he saved Riverrun. And Riverrun needed to be saved.

And he barely took casualties in the WW and Battle of the Camps, while putting a 15,000 strong army to rout and taking Jaime Lannister prisoner.

Bolton WAS holding back. He was ordered to do a feint to distract Tywin, and he bloody well did.

What, pray tell, could Robb win from taking on Tywin in the Green Fork that he did not win by reinforcing Edmure at Riverrun? Riverrun was the better choice by a long shot.

[Bran the Deciduous]

E-Ro, on 27 June 2012 - 11:47 AM, said:

Yes, but attacking riverun and getting jaime is faster then going full strength to the green fork he wanted Eddard back as fast as possible. I will check the other thread. Also I feel strongly that tywin is overated as a general. And why is it unlikely they would beat tywin?

No, I don't think Robb's plan revolved around getting a hostage super fast.

I think it is actually further to RR than to Tywin's army on the GF, or at least the same distance. There's not much in it.

Well, Robb says it is unlikely he will win. Although this is before he wins the Freys. Sure, its very far from impossible, but he is doubtful he can beat Tywin.

[Lady Hodor]

If Robb defeats Tywin, Tywin is captured.
In a rage, Jaime attacks, and is captured.
The lands are swarming with Northmen, and Tyrion is captured.
The Lannister family are forced to submit in order to save the hostages.
King Robb Stark sits the Iron Throne and rules the Seven Kingdoms.

[Bran the Deciduous]

Edmure Floppy-Fish Tully, on 27 June 2012 - 11:49 AM, said:

@Bran the Cute

Tywin had over 5,000 heavy horse in the Green Fork, plus over 2,000 light horse, many pikes and longbows. A full-on battle against that host with Robb's own host (with the Freys it was slightly over 20,000) was bloody business, and likely impossible. And Tywin chilled out at the reserve so he was not easy to capture.

If Riverrun fell, the Lannisters had a lot more hostages at their disposal, plus the Riverlords would have been severely weakened (more than what they were) and likely would not have supported Robb as eagerly as they did when he saved Riverrun. And Riverrun needed to be saved.

And he barely took casualties in the WW and Battle of the Camps, while putting a 15,000 strong army to rout and taking Jaime Lannister prisoner.

Bolton WAS holding back. He was ordered to do a feint to distract Tywin, and he bloody well did.

What, pray tell, could Robb win from taking on Tywin in the Green Fork that he did not win by reinforcing Edmure at Riverrun? Riverrun was the better choice by a long shot.

I don't think a victory for Robb was impossible. Lots of battles have been won by forces which were deficient in horse compared to their foes. Bannockburn, Agincourt, Crecy etc.

I've no idea what this holding back business is. I've said this on another thread but Bolton is not buying Robb time by actually fighting a battle but only by looking like he is going to. Honestly, the battle itself keeps up the deception for a morning and then the cover is blown as Tywin has northern prisoners. Roose would have fooled him longer if he did not advance so fast but he actually tries a surprise attack!

Also, why the Fuck would you hold back during a battle if you could win. As Roose later tells Robb, the GF cost him one third of his men. Those are massive casualties.  

So, the GF might prove Bolton could not have beaten Tywin, but it certainly doesn't prove he didn't beat him because he was holding back. That is pure daftness.

If Robb won the GF he might have Tywin, lots of westerlings lords and a clear march to KL. Jaime would probably have had to  lift the siege of RR to threaten Robb elsewhere had this occurred.

[Bran the Deciduous]

Lady Hodor, on 27 June 2012 - 11:53 AM, said:

If Robb defeats Tywin, Tywin is captured.
In a rage, Jaime attacks, and is captured.
The lands are swarming with Northmen, and Tyrion is captured.
The Lannister family are forced to submit in order to save the hostages.
King Robb Stark sits the Iron Throne and rules the Seven Kingdoms.

Well put, Lady Hodor, substantially less verbose than I was.

[Frey Pie]

It all depends. The battle itself it in the balance. Robb would have2000-4000more troops then Tywin which could be a large advantage but Tywins position was well fortified. As Robb would have his full compliment of advisors i believe he would have won. Wether he captures Tywin is unknown. Tywin could easily retreat with a couple of thousand cavalry. Casualties would be high on either side no matter what but Tywin can in a way afford to lose more then Robb. This would be Robbs throw of the dice

If he is defeated and captured then it could play out as follows-Ned is swapped for Tywin. Lannister captives are exchanged for Tully and Jaime has to give up the siege. Now Stannis will still attack KL but will Tywin try to support her or lick his wounds in Casterly Rock? Who knows?I can see Tywin leaving Joffrey to die but keeping hold of Cersei. In this scenario Robb is never made King in the North so he would bend the knee and all hail King Stannis!!!

The Greyjoys were always going to be stupid no matter what happened. Perhaps they would have attacked the West but i doubt it!

[The Red Hand]

If Robb had invested all of his strength in the battle with Tywin he would been beaten by Jaime's counter-attack anyway. I think Robb wisely guessed that Jaime made a riper target than Tywin.

It all kind of fits into the saying that Robb won every battle but failed in everything else. By putting Bolton in that position he gave him a large command and made it seem like he favored the Riverlands to the North, which helped cause Boltons betrayal.

[Bran the Deciduous]

The Red Hand, on 27 June 2012 - 12:05 PM, said:

If Robb had invested all of his strength in the battle with Tywin he would been beaten by Jaime's counter-attack anyway. I think Robb wisely guessed that Jaime made a riper target than Tywin.

It all kind of fits into the saying that Robb won every battle but failed in everything else. By putting Bolton in that position he gave him a large command and made it seem like he favored the Riverlands to the North, which helped cause Boltons betrayal.

Eh.

How on earth do you come to this conclusion.

Its not Verdun or anything, Robb would take casualties but if he won they would be unlikely to be extremely grievous.

[Bran the Deciduous]

Frey Pie, on 27 June 2012 - 12:04 PM, said:

It all depends. The battle itself it in the balance. Robb would have2000-4000more troops then Tywin which could be a large advantage but Tywins position was well fortified. As Robb would have his full compliment of advisors i believe he would have won. Wether he captures Tywin is unknown. Tywin could easily retreat with a couple of thousand cavalry. Casualties would be high on either side no matter what but Tywin can in a way afford to lose more then Robb. This would be Robbs throw of the dice

If he is defeated and captured then it could play out as follows-Ned is swapped for Tywin. Lannister captives are exchanged for Tully and Jaime has to give up the siege. Now Stannis will still attack KL but will Tywin try to support her or lick his wounds in Casterly Rock? Who knows?I can see Tywin leaving Joffrey to die but keeping hold of Cersei. In this scenario Robb is never made King in the North so he would bend the knee and all hail King Stannis!!!

The Greyjoys were always going to be stupid no matter what happened. Perhaps they would have attacked the West but i doubt it!

I think the crucial bit of evidence here is that Robb, as far as I recall, never says anything like this. In GoT he gives the impression Tywin is being avoided because victory can't be assured in the same way as it can be at RR.

[Kernest]

One notable benefit if Robb had beaten Tywin instead of Jaime first would have been that Jaime could have had to retreat west, even if he had more men he couldn't keep the siege up and he couldn't win an offensive battle against a well defended position (any river, ford or hill basically). This would have accomplished a goal Robb had later in the war, locking the Lannister army west to prevent them from aiding KL or burning the riverlands.

[Bran the Deciduous]

Kernest, on 27 June 2012 - 12:15 PM, said:

One notable benefit if Robb had beaten Tywin instead of Jaime first would have been that Jaime could have had to retreat west, even if he had more men he couldn't keep the siege up and he couldn't win an offensive battle against a well defended position (any river, ford or hill basically). This would have accomplished a goal Robb had later in the war, locking the Lannister army west to prevent them from aiding KL or burning the riverlands.

Exactly, Robb would have had the much coveted central position, allowing him to be involved in the rest of the war more directly. As it is he spends the whole war avoiding Tywin which drives him further west until the whole thing is decided outside KL with no input from him.