Where is Daenerys going?

[ApKing06]

It was my understanding that it was full. I think (but feel free to correct me) that 100 ships could carry her army at the time she was in mereen, but she turned that down to rule. (aka kill time and get bogged down)

I think Khal Drogo had 100,000 in his army (40, 000 warriors), but the grand khalsar would be more. We know Khal Drogo had the largest, but we don't know how many other are out there. Anyhow a guess of 500,000 to a million seems reasonable and at 100 warriors and horses (a large ship) per ship you need 5000 ships to take a half million people and horses.

It just sounds too unwieldy to transport.

Quick query: How large were those ships that Cersei ordered that got stolen?

I think you are referring to the ships Xaro Xhoan Daxos offered her to leave for Westeros ASAP. That was only 13 ships she was offered. I do believe she was told she would need alot more than that to take an Army that could take Kings Landing so 100 ships being needed could be right.

3 of the drummonds were complete or almost complete when Waters took them. The Lord Tywin was supposed to have 2x as many oars as their biggest ship Roberts WarHammer and Sweet Cersi was the same size as Roberts. So the answer is they are very big compared to other ships.

[Amris]

I think you are referring to the ships Xaro Xhoan Daxos offered her to leave for Westeros ASAP. That was only 13 ships she was offered. I do believe she was told she would need alot more than that to take an Army that could take Kings Landing so 100 ships being needed could be right.

3 of the drummonds were complete or almost complete when Waters took them. The Lord Tywin was supposed to have 2x as many oars as their biggest ship Roberts WarHammer and Sweet Cersi was the same size as Roberts. So the answer is they are very big compared to other ships.

If we guesstimate that one ship was able to carry 100 soldiers then 100 ships would be able to transport an army of 10.000 men (much less if also carrying horses).

So 100 ships might suffice to transport the Unsullied and a mercenary unit or two.

But I don't see how Dany would find the ships for a Dothraki horde and their horses. The logicstics seem impossible.

If one guesstimates one horse taking the room of 4 men (which seems on the low side) then you would need 400 ships for 10.000 horses, 4.000 ships for 100.000 horses. And that does not yet even count the men nor the fodder.

A cavalry horse needs 25 kg (50 pounds) of fresh fodder each day. Say it needs less while standing still on a ship so we'll calculate 15 kg. (30 pounds). That means 100.000 horses still would eat 1.500.000 kg (1500 tons) of food each day.

A typical Cog in the middle ages was able to transport about 240 long tons (a long ton was 1016 kg so roughly a modern ton). So Dany would need 6 ships worth of fodder per day of travel just to feed 100.000 horses. That's an additional 180 ships per month of travel just for fodder, rations for the men not included.

Now the horses also drink water. The amount varies between 22 and 90 litres (1 litre = 1 kg) per day. So for 100.000 horses, even if you go with low value which probably wouldn't work, you still end up with 2.200.000 kg (2.200 tons) of water each day. That means another 9 ships per day for water. ( 270 ships per month of travel just for water).

[ApKing06]

If we guesstimate that one ship was able to carry 100 soldiers then 100 ships would be able to transport an army of 10.000 men (much less if also carrying horses).

So 100 ships might suffice to transport the Unsullied and a mercenary unit or two.

But I don't see how Dany would find the ships for a Dothraki horde and their horses. The logicstics seem impossible.

If one guesstimates one horse taking the room of 4 men (which seems on the low side) then you would need 400 ships for 10.000 horses, 4.000 ships for 100.000 horses. And that does not yet even count the men nor the fodder.

A cavalry horse needs 25 kg (50 pounds) of fresh fodder each day. Say it needs less while standing still on a ship so we'll calculate 15 kg. (30 pounds). That means 100.000 horses still would eat 1.500.000 kg (1500 tons) of food each day.

A typical Cog in the middle ages was able to transport about 240 long tons (a long ton was 1016 kg so roughly a modern ton). So Dany would need 6 ships worth of fodder per day of travel just to feed 100.000 horses. That's an additional 180 ships per month of travel just for fodder, rations for the men not included.

Its a crazy move for sure. 100 men might be low. But what the hell do i know about sea travel circa 1700's . also, she may not necessarily need all 100,000 dothraki, 50,000 may do it. Some of the Horses they need might be obtained in Westeros. Heres another thought. She wouldnt necessarily need everything to come at once. Multiple trips maybe needed. I would also imagine any campaign would require capturing a smaller defensible area. For example (with no forethought into whether its feasible): Dragonstone or Tarth. Set up a beach head and wait for resupply and more troops. Alliances could help as well. If she ally's her self with Dorne for example, she could set up shop there and wait for her full strength to arrive. There are ways around it. Besides, Im sure GRRM will have it planned out where we all buy into it and dont think its a stretch. At least I hope so. I have become so involved in this story that something like logistics not being supportable would really bother me.

[Red Rollo]

Its a crazy move for sure. 100 men might be low. But what the hell do i know about sea travel circa 1700's . also, she may not necessarily need all 100,000 dothraki, 50,000 may do it. Some of the Horses they need might be obtained in Westeros. Heres another thought. She wouldnt necessarily need everything to come at once. Multiple trips maybe needed. I would also imagine any campaign would require capturing a smaller defensible area. For example (with no forethought into whether its feasible): Dragonstone or Tarth. Set up a beach head and wait for resupply and more troops. Alliances could help as well. If she ally's her self with Dorne for example, she could set up shop there and wait for her full strength to arrive. There are ways around it. Besides, Im sure GRRM will have it planned out where we all buy into it and dont think its a stretch. At least I hope so. I have become so involved in this story that something like logistics not being supportable would really bother me.

Dany should take maybe 20,000 Dothraki warriors and their horses, the unsullied, and the free companies to Westeros on the combined Iron and Volantene fleets, the latter of which will fall into her hands after a Moqorro-incited revolt of the Volantene slave sailors. That's 450 ships! She can promise Vic the seastone chair for his help and should establish her initial Westerosi beachhead on the Iron Islands after sailing east via Asshai and the Lonely Light. (“to reach the light, you must pass under the shadow”) She can leave the remainder of the Dothraki to take Yunkai, Astapor, and Volantis, with Missandei and Barristan as co-rulers of her Essos empire.

After helping Vic defeat Euron, she should base her forces on Bear Island, home turf of Jorah Mormont, to wait out Stannis' dragonglass war vs the Others (Remember, he has a massive supply of the stuff on Dragonstone). During this battle she can be making making occasional sorties with her fellow dragonriders Tyrion and Jon to roast wights. After the Others have been defeated, Dany should take Casterly Rock and install Tyrion, its rightful lord, as warden of the west. Next move, head for Kings Landing with all the western lords to take on Aegon VI and his Dornish allies. But watch out for Littlefinger and Sansa, moving fron the Vale.

[Dire Dragon]

I think you are referring to the ships Xaro Xhoan Daxos offered her to leave for Westeros ASAP. That was only 13 ships she was offered. I do believe she was told she would need alot more than that to take an Army that could take Kings Landing so 100 ships being needed could be right.

3 of the drummonds were complete or almost complete when Waters took them. The Lord Tywin was supposed to have 2x as many oars as their biggest ship Roberts WarHammer and Sweet Cersi was the same size as Roberts. So the answer is they are very big compared to other ships.

Thanks, yes, it was the 13 ships that Xaro Xhoan Daxos offered.

And from the other math above, it would be impossible for her to take a grand khalasar over the narrow sea via ship. (I had not even considered the food and water the horses would need).

To be clear, I'm not arguing that she could take a serious army across. Khal Drogo was planning to take his khalasar over with 40,000 Dothraki screamers (maybe leave behind the 60,000 others? But you still need to eat and pitch tents and such so you can't take an army of 40,000 fighters alone)

The Golden company of 10,000 made it across, but not all had horses of course. So maybe an army of 50,000 could be transported using all the ships?

I like the idea of Daenarys heading the other way around the world, but I don't see how a grand khalasar could follow her. (And I'm almost certain she will raise one). So she may raise the grand khalasar to wreck some havoc, but they won't all make it to Westeros (barring a Deus ex Machina land bridge raised up from molten lava from the Doom of Valyria).

[ackyou]

I don't think there is anyway that she can circumnavigate the world, however with Victorian in Meeren with a presumably working dragon horn, Dany won't be able to return, lest she loose her remaining dragon(assuming she doesn't loose all her dragons, which would be a huge bummer). There is also a problem of Drogon not being willing to fly back to Mereen, but I suspect all the bloodshed in the battle will be enough to draw him away from Dragonstone 2.0. Once in Meeren, Dany will discover that the battle is won, but her other two dragons have been taken by Victorian. Barristen, upon seeing the khalasar and Drogon, would ride out to meet Dany(hopefully with Jorah, penny, and Tyrion) to warn her of what happenend. presumably Dany will flip her shit, and go on a murdering rampage in Essos, going after Vaes dothraki, to fufill the crones bowing down to her and to create a grand khalasar, and then burning down Volantis, and maybe some other slaver cities. After that she will cross the narrow sea with her khalasar to contend with Victarion, and the other claimants. I would say Drogon would be equal with the two smaller dragons, as long as Tyrion can give Dany his dragon expertise so she can fight them on his back. My guess is by the end all the dragons die, including all those that might be unknown(winterfell or the wall.)

[Dire Dragon]

OK, new thought. I was reading this old thread http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/61391-patchface-project/

on Patchface prophecies and there was discussion of the doom of Valarya and volcanic activity and geological reshaping.

So here is my theory.

The rising tide of magic causes geological strain resulting in the eruption and formation of a land bridge between Westeros and the East. Dany leads great khlalasar over new bridge.

What is that sound? Is it the sound of pots cracking?

[ackyou]

hmmmmm nope, deus ex machina.

[Poète Lauréat]

I hope she relocates to the nearest ditch and buries herself in it.

[Dire Dragon]

I have more support for my theory (Of which I fully acknowledge the crackpottery of).

The Mirri Maz Prophecy talks about the sun rising in the west and setting in the east, the sea drying and the mountains falling. This is often treated as Quentyn's journey and death, the Dothraki sea drying and the pyramids of Mereen crumbling.

But it could be the growth of a land bridge between the East and the West. There is precedent for massive volcanic and geological activity (Doom of Valyria and the Smoking Sea-possibly Hardhome). So if there was another massive geological event that shook down some mountains into the ocean and/or raised up some volcanos to form a land bridge that could be the prophecy.

[ackyou]

The forces of geology seem to be far beyond even the most powerful magic available, nature cares not for the toils of men.

[JonSnowed]

I've been reading these forums for a while now but this is my first post so be gentle! :cheers:

This thread inparticular has been of interest to me since watching the first season of the show (and then reading some of the books) and having read all the pages I could not longer resist the urge to make my first post. More so that seemingly so many people appear to believe that Danny will be the all conquering hero and sit on the throne at the end of the series. Now I must admit this was my initial belief too but as I have become more familiar with GRRM and the books I can only see Dany falling tragically short.

That isn't to say she will die in WoW but I don't see her sitting on the throne at any point. That said I do expect her to play a pivotal role in the final ending but ultimately to fall just short and most likely tragically be killed just as it seems she will fufill her destiny. Only George knows how this will happen but I wouldn't be surprised if it's Arya that is does the deed if only because I do not see her end game as yet.

[Dire Dragon]

The forces of geology seem to be far beyond even the most powerful magic available, nature cares not for the toils of men.

The Doom of Valyria (and possibly Hardhome) appear to have magical tie-in. The people describing them believe it is there, but we run into the unreliable witness theory. We don't know what the cause was as GRRM hasn't told us. However I wouldn't be surprised if a second Doom appears in the next two books. Possibly to create a land bridge. Or possibly to destroy the white walkers.

edit: One more addition to my crackpot theory. The prince that is reborn will appear amid salt and smoke right? So volcanic activity to create a land bridge would involve plumes of boiling smoking salty ocean.

That would a smoke and salt like the world has never seen.

[The Iron Waffle]

Does anyone else think that 'the light' could be Lightbringer? And that she'll find it among the ruins of Old Valyria, which would be 'the shadow'? We know that Stannis doesn't have the real sword, and it would make sense for it to be in Valyria.

Also, I've seen a lot of doubt as to whether or not Dany can get her khalasar and the rest of her army across the Narrow Sea. If indeed she does get her khalasar, which I think is likely, I can see her sending them across land to Volantis, while Dany takes the rest of her army there by ship and they will attack them from both sides. Once they take Volantis, they will have the ships they need to get everyone across, and the distance over water from Volantis to Westeros is much shorter.

[Talking Hodor]

Perhaps she has to go South, to Dorne, in order to gain an army to march North against the ice zombies, and go East to KL and/or the Vale in order to take out the West, Casterly Rock.

[Endymion I Targaryen]

Daenerys will go at Vees Dothrak and reunite Drogo's Khalassar.Then she will send message to her army in Meereen and maybe send a part of her Khalassar there.Then she will go east and take Qarth and capture its ships and set sail to Meereen where she will find ruins and Rhaegal and Viserion stolen by Victarion or Tyrion or both and finally she will head to Westeros through Valyria.In my opinion her last chapter will be entering the Smoking Sea and after some time in another POV chapter (maybe Tyrion) we will learn she landed in Westeros.

[The brown snake]

Hopefully she gets her dragons back, and meets tryion .... and not put him to death...

[Tharvot]

Khalasars follow power. What is more powerful than a dragonrider? Can't really think of much. She is heading back to Mereen where she will lay waste to the remnants of the Yunkish, find out the harpy is her perfumed seneschal Reznak mo Reznak, and gather her forces to leave.

IMO, she is heading to Braavos with a pit stop in Pentos and ultimately will make landfall in the north of westeros...possibly White Harbor.

[The brown snake]

She is hopefully going to westeros where just about EVERY OTHER IMPORTANT CHARACTER IS!!

[Drth Fel]

Carmen Miranda????

I'm imaging Dany, on Drogon's back, with a basket full of bananas, apples and oranges up to her head (to hide her baldness) and on fire, while singing Chica Chica Boom Chic!

That would coocoo crazy Mad Aerys style...

I think you mean Carmen Electra...