The Spicers: what game are they playing?
Posted 14 July 2012 - 05:24 PM
Spicer invlovement in the Red Wedding: It is pretty obvious that Jeyne's Mother and Uncle were both involved in the Red Wedding plot. The key question is: when did they become involved? and my answer is: they must have been involved right from the start. I don't know what the fan consensus is on this point, so I'm going to present what I think is the key evidence: the awarding of the Castamere fief to Rolf Spicer as a reward. Given the backstory of the place, this is a very conspicuous award for a man who is apparently a repentant traitor. I take it as a very ostentative statement by Tywin Lannister that he never even thought to question Rolf Spicer's loyalty, and saw him as being on his side all along. It means that the two would have agreed about Spicer's defection even before it happened.
This leads us to the second point: How was the Red Wedding planned in the first place? Did Tywin simply send a memo to all bannermen who had unmarried young girls: "If Robb Stark shows up near your castle, surrender on the off-chance that he will fall in love with your teenage daughter and break his promise to Walder Frey"? That sounds like a rather stupid thing to do. The whole Robb-Jeyne love story and subsequent Stark-Frey falling out were the result of a whole string of extremely unlikely set of circumstances. Certanly not something on which you should base your strategy.
My belief is that the whole thing was suggested to Tywin by the Spicers themselves, because they knew it would work. How did they know it? Because they had access to supernatural knowledge of the future! We allready know of one member of the Spicer family who had the ability to tell the future, and was apparently very accurate. Either there is a Seer in the family at the current time in the books, or Maggy Spicer left some very accurate instructions based on her own visions.
I allso think that Tywin might know that the Spicers have acces to such supernatural knowledge, and that this was not the first time they were feeding him information. Here I must make a digression to discuss Tywin as a military commander. He apparently has the reputation of a good strategist and planner. Yet if he analyse his campaigns in the book we see a string of risky moves and gambles ending in victories based to a great extent on luck. So he can't be that smart after all. But he can't be _that_ stupid either, or else someone would have realised it eventually. Tywin could not have simply blundered from one success to another, like the famous Inspector Cluseau, someone would have realised it. Tywin must have based his strategy on some information hidden from us. Is it possible that the Spicers used their knowledge of the future to tell him which gambles he can afford to take. Also, unlike his daughter and younger son, Tywin has no information network that we know of. Is it possible that he has been relying on the Spicers all this time to provide him with supernatural knowledge of the future?
More info is needed on this topic, but one thing is sure. If the Spicers were telling Tywin something, they were not telling him everything. If they knew about Tywin's death, they did not inform him about it. And they certainly did not inform him about the prophecy that made Cersei go crazy.
It appears thus that if the spicers are acting as loyal Lannister bannermen at the moment, they might not have the best interests of House Lannister in mind. Perhaps they have their own agenda. Perhaps they wouldn't mind to see their liegelords removed from power, but have choosen to use subtle manipulation to achieve this goal, instead of risking an open confrontation, like the Freys or Boltons or Florents.
And related to this: why do you think that Maggy spicer felt the need to work as a fortune teller? Did she need money? Unlikely. Her husband was notoriously wealthy. He practically bought his way into Westerosi nobility. Perhaps it was just a way to mess with people's minds by letting them know certain things about the future. Perhaps it was all part of "the plan"...
Posted 14 July 2012 - 05:29 PM
Also, there is a line in passing that Tywin sent the Spicers out to look for Jaime after his "escape" from Riverrun. Another indication that there was never any conflict between him and Jeyne's family at all - they were always on the same side. Otherwise, there's no way he would have trusted a Spicer with such an important task.
Edited by Jolene Brown, 14 July 2012 - 05:30 PM.
Posted 14 July 2012 - 07:57 PM
- Even if the conspirators did plan to slip Robb a love potion, they could not predict that he would marry Jeyne (even the honourable Ned had supposedly fathered one bastard, so why shouldn't Robb do the same?) or that Walder Frey would overreact and assasinate his liege lord (which was kind of stupid if you stop to think about it.)
- Also, how did Tywin even know that Robb will go near the Crag? Until then he had been incapable of anticipating Robb's movements, yet he must have authorised the surrender and apparent "defection" of Rolf Spicer some time in advance - we both agree about that.
Posted 14 July 2012 - 08:09 PM
Posted 14 July 2012 - 08:21 PM
Posted 14 July 2012 - 08:23 PM
Posted 14 July 2012 - 08:28 PM
Posted 14 July 2012 - 08:43 PM
I don't doubt that the Spicers started plotting with Tywin at the first available moment after the wedding, but like Ser Loudmouth says upthread the circumstances are too unpredictable to fit with an entirely orchestrated event.
An unoccupied Castamere was a tribute to the destruction of the Reynes and Tarbecks. An occupied Castamere post Red Wedding still has the old value plus it becomes a tribute to the destruction of the Starks and a symbol for the advantages of betraying Tywin's enemies.
Posted 14 July 2012 - 08:44 PM
Posted 15 July 2012 - 05:31 AM
Posted 15 July 2012 - 06:28 AM
Posted 15 July 2012 - 07:55 AM
I believe the whole thing must have been discussed in advance, before Robb showed up. If Rolf Spicer had surendered his castle, given his daughter in marriage and entered the service of an enemy king, before resuming contact with Tywin, then Tywin would be at least a bit suspicious. And we know what Tywin does to disloyal subjects.
Castamere used to be a symbol of Tywin's ruthlesness towards tohoose who disobeyed him. Now it risks becoming a symbol of Tywin's leniency towards those who deserted him. That's why I said that Tywin must have never even doubted Rolf Spicer's loyalty.
Agree with everything but the Castamere part. The Spicers surviving period is what might be mistaken for Tywin's leniency. Everyone knows Tywin was in on the Red Wedding and Castamere is the perfect reward to disuade any doubts that the Spicers earned their pardon. I just don't think they could have specifically planned the Red Wedding from that early a stage given all the variables and unknowns. Rolph seems to have been a complete Tywin loyalist the whole time. I suspect Sybell was prepared to betray either one though if someone said she was definitely a Tywin pawn I wouldn't argue it.
She certainly had an "understanding" with Tywin but the actual Red Wedding events took her by surprise.
Sybell means oracle or prophet and many claim that given the Maggy the Frog connection the name means she has the gift. With Robb wounded she would have easy access to his blood to make a Maggy type fortune telling. With the Red Wedding taking her off guard I have no idea what she might have seen or how it played into her thinking. (other than Robb's death in general swaying her to side with Tywin.)
Posted 15 July 2012 - 08:15 AM
Posted 15 July 2012 - 08:39 AM
"Could the Westerlings and Spicers be such fools to believe the wolf can defeat the lion?"
Every once in a very long while, Tywin Lannister would actually threaten to smile; he never did, but the threat enough was terrible to behold. "The greatest fools are ofttimes more clever than the men who laugh at them."
Posted 15 July 2012 - 09:23 AM
Posted 15 July 2012 - 12:22 PM
More clues are to be found in the Conversation between Sybel and Jaime. There we find out that Sybel expects even more rewards: good marriages for their daughter. It is clear that what the Spicers are seeking is not mercy and forgiveness, but rewards and gratitude. They clearly feel no guilt towards the Lannisters. Further evidence that the whole Spicer "defection" was authorised in advance.
Sybel also states that Tywin Lannister "bid her" to prevent Jeyne's pregnancy. If we assume this request was made before Jeyne and Robb started having sex, this is a further evidence of an early agreement.
And if all this was planned in advance, it means the conspirators had expected the whole Robb+Jeyne love affair and marriage, which was an extremely unlikely event, so they must have had some foreknwledge of it.
- even blood based foresight can fail sometimes
- Sybell somehow never bothered to do a "blood test" on her own son
- she did know what would happen but for some reason she did not prevent it and is now simply feigning surprise and grief
And did you think about why she was doing that? She did not need the money. It's more likely that she was doing it to gather information on certain people, and manipulate them
Posted 16 July 2012 - 03:34 AM
What do we actually know about Jeynes mother? That's like Genna (the aunt) saying that Tyrion, not Jaime, is Tywin's son. The only meaning I can see behind that phrase is that Jeyne's mom was a little "loose" with the boys, if you know what I mean
From what we see and hear of Jeyne from Catelyns and later her brief appereance in Jaime POVs, she really loved Robb and I don't believe it all was just an act.
Even if you took into account blood magic and all that, I find it extremely far fetched that Tywin told the Crag to surrender and push Jeyne into Robb's arms. It reeks of opportunism to me, not pre-planned betrayal.
Posted 16 July 2012 - 03:45 AM
I think we get a lot about Jeyne's mother from the scenes with her and Jaime. She is obviously not a pleasant person. However, we could ask what Tywin knows about Jeyne...
Posted 16 July 2012 - 04:20 AM
Posted 16 July 2012 - 05:13 AM