60 replies to this topic

[Ser Loudmouth]

House Spicer is a minor house in the Westerlands, to which Jeyne Westerling's mother belongs. Another proeminent member of the family was Maggy Spicer, who used to moonlight as a fortune teller, and gave Cersei her famous prophecy. As I was reading through book 4, some thoughts about this family came to my mind, and now I will attempt to form them into a coherent theory. First, a few points I want to make:

Spicer invlovement in the Red Wedding: It is pretty obvious that Jeyne's Mother and Uncle were both involved in the Red Wedding plot. The key question is: when did they become involved? and my answer is: they must have been involved right from the start. I don't know what the fan consensus is on this point, so I'm going to present what I think is the key evidence: the awarding of the Castamere fief to Rolf Spicer as a reward. Given the backstory of the place, this is a very conspicuous award for a man who is apparently a repentant traitor. I take it as a very ostentative statement by Tywin Lannister that he never even thought to question Rolf Spicer's loyalty, and saw him as being on his side all along. It means that the two would have agreed about Spicer's defection even before it happened.

This leads us to the second point: How was the Red Wedding planned in the first place? Did Tywin simply send a memo to all bannermen who had unmarried young girls: "If Robb Stark shows up near your castle, surrender on the off-chance that he will fall in love with your teenage daughter and break his promise to Walder Frey"? That sounds like a rather stupid thing to do. The whole Robb-Jeyne love story and subsequent Stark-Frey falling out were the result of a whole string of extremely unlikely set of circumstances. Certanly not something on which you should base your strategy.
My belief is that the whole thing was suggested to Tywin by the Spicers themselves, because they knew it would work. How did they know it? Because they had access to supernatural knowledge of the future! We allready know of one member of the Spicer family who had the ability to tell the future, and was apparently very accurate. Either there is a Seer in the family at the current time in the books, or Maggy Spicer left some very accurate instructions based on her own visions.
I allso think that Tywin might know that the Spicers have acces to such supernatural knowledge, and that this was not the first time they were feeding him information. Here I must make a digression to discuss Tywin as a military commander. He apparently has the reputation of a good strategist and planner. Yet if he analyse his campaigns in the book we see a string of risky moves and gambles ending in victories based to a great extent on luck. So he can't be that smart after all. But he can't be _that_ stupid either, or else someone would have realised it eventually. Tywin could not have simply blundered from one success to another, like the famous Inspector Cluseau, someone would have realised it. Tywin must have based his strategy on some information hidden from us. Is it possible that the Spicers used their knowledge of the future to tell him which gambles he can afford to take. Also, unlike his daughter and younger son, Tywin has no information network that we know of. Is it possible that he has been relying on the Spicers all this time to provide him with supernatural knowledge of the future?
More info is needed on this topic, but one thing is sure. If the Spicers were telling Tywin something, they were not telling him everything. If they knew about Tywin's death, they did not inform him about it. And they certainly did not inform him about the prophecy that made Cersei go crazy.

It appears thus that if the spicers are acting as loyal Lannister bannermen at the moment, they might not have the best interests of House Lannister in mind. Perhaps they have their own agenda. Perhaps they wouldn't mind to see their liegelords removed from power, but have choosen to use subtle manipulation to achieve this goal, instead of risking an open confrontation, like the Freys or Boltons or Florents.
And related to this: why do you think that Maggy spicer felt the need to work as a fortune teller? Did she need money? Unlikely. Her husband was notoriously wealthy. He practically bought his way into Westerosi nobility. Perhaps it was just a way to mess with people's minds by letting them know certain things about the future. Perhaps it was all part of "the plan"...

[Jolene Brown]

I have mixed feelings about to what extent it could have been possible to plan out the Robb/Jeyne part of the RW, but rather than relying on "seeing the future," I think the idea that someone used a "love potion" fits better with what we know about Maggy and the way we know Sybell also gave Jeyne a potion to prevent her from getting pregnant.  Robb was being cared for, vulnerable, injured - easy to slip something into his food to up the odds of his falling for Jeyne.  Jeyne wouldn't even have known in all likelihood - her mother would have done it.  On the other hand, I feel like that sort of diminishes the emotional impact of the story - if he was manipulated in part rather than completely brought down by his own fatal flaw (Ned's honor).  I do wonder about Tywin's line that Jeyne "is her mother's daughter," as Robb "is his father's son," since Jeyne's mother is presented to as as a very unsympathetic/unsavory character.

Also, there is a line in passing that Tywin sent the Spicers out to look for Jaime after his "escape" from Riverrun.  Another indication that there was never any conflict between him and Jeyne's family at all - they were always on the same side.  Otherwise, there's no way he would have trusted a Spicer with such an important task.

Edited by Jolene Brown, 14 July 2012 - 05:30 PM.

[Ser Loudmouth]

Jolene Brown, on 14 July 2012 - 05:29 PM, said:

I have mixed feelings about to what extent it could have been possible to plan out the Robb/Jeyne part of the RW, but rather than relying on "seeing the future," I think the idea that someone used a "love potion" fits better with what we know about Maggy and the way we know Sybell also gave Jeyne a potion to prevent her from getting pregnant.  Robb was being cared for, vulnerable, injured - easy to slip something into his food to up the odds of his falling for Jeyne.

- Robb credits the "killing" of Bran and Rickon (something very hard to anticipate) as the event which ultimately pushed him into Jeyne's arms
- Even if the conspirators did plan to slip Robb a love potion, they could not predict that he would marry Jeyne (even the honourable Ned had supposedly fathered one bastard, so why shouldn't Robb do the same?) or that Walder Frey would overreact and assasinate his liege lord (which was kind of stupid if you stop to think about it.)
-  Also, how did Tywin even know that Robb will go near the Crag? Until then he had been incapable of anticipating Robb's movements, yet he must have authorised the surrender and apparent "defection" of Rolf Spicer some time in advance - we both agree about that.

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Also, there is a line in passing that Tywin sent the Spicers out to look for Jaime after his "escape" from Riverrun.  Another indication that there was never any conflict between him and Jeyne's family at all

Jeyne Westrling at least seems to have been sincere in her love for Robb as she seems to have been sincere in her mourning of him. And she got along well with Grey Wind, which is a big point in her favor. And her brother too was clearly loyal to Robb. It's only the Spicers who were plotting against the Starks.

[Apple Martini]

I think Jaime's last chapter in AFFC shows that there's something rotten in Denmark here, as far as the Spicer/Westerling lovefest with Tywin goes.

[Brony Stark]

Could the RW have been planned after Robb got to the Crag? Could Rolf Spicer have had a raven sent out to Tywin/Lannisters in general and then he/they contact the Freys saying 'Your king has married'

[thunder_chicken]

I tend to think it was more very good opportunism on the part of Tywin and a lesser banner hoping to rise in status. The question of a love potion is an interesting one though- if that is actually true then they may have given it to both Jeyne and Robb. Of course, I could have an entirely different opinion once we see how Maggie the Frog's prophesy actually plays out.

[Ser Loudmouth]

Brony Stark, on 14 July 2012 - 08:21 PM, said:

Could the RW have been planned after Robb got to the Crag? Could Rolf Spicer have had a raven sent out to Tywin/Lannisters in general and then he/they contact the Freys saying 'Your king has married'

Robb might have been wounded and sick, but I doubt that none of his underlings had enough wits to post a guard at the Rookery to chech outgoing messages.

[Ragnorak]

Regarding your prophesy angle-- I don't think a single character relying on prophetic information hasn't been burned.  I just don't see a series of lucky breaks coming from prophetic information given how Martin has treated prophesy so far.

I don't doubt that the Spicers started plotting with Tywin at the first available moment after the wedding, but like Ser Loudmouth says upthread the circumstances are too unpredictable to fit with an entirely orchestrated event.

An unoccupied Castamere was a tribute to the destruction of the Reynes and Tarbecks.  An occupied Castamere post Red Wedding still has the old value plus it becomes a tribute to the destruction of the Starks and a symbol for the advantages of betraying Tywin's enemies.

[Grimwolfe]

you're forgetting some of the Westerlings were very fond of Robb, more so than the lannisters. Especially the one that tried to save greywind

[Ser Loudmouth]

Ragnorak, on 14 July 2012 - 08:43 PM, said:

Regarding your prophesy angle-- I don't think a single character relying on prophetic information hasn't been burned.

Until now, of all "seers", Maggy Spicer seems to have been the most accurate by far

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I don't doubt that the Spicers started plotting with Tywin at the first available moment after the wedding, but like Ser Loudmouth says upthread the circumstances are too unpredictable to fit with an entirely orchestrated event.

I believe the whole thing must have been discussed in advance, before Robb showed up. If Rolf Spicer had surendered his castle, given his daughter in marriage and entered the service of an enemy king, before resuming contact with Tywin, then Tywin would be at least a bit suspicious. And we know what Tywin does to disloyal subjects.

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An unoccupied Castamere was a tribute to the destruction of the Reynes and Tarbecks

Castamere used to be a symbol of Tywin's ruthlesness towards tohoose who disobeyed him. Now it risks becoming a symbol of Tywin's leniency towards those who deserted him. That's why I said that Tywin must have never even doubted Rolf Spicer's loyalty.

[just an Other]

It seems the whole thing was staged. For instance they yielded the castle the moment Robb was injured. His wound did not seem like much, yet it festered. Not unlike Stevron's. And all of this needed to be organized and bargained over via ravenmail while assuming which castle Robb would attack. Yeah, I feel Martin has some explaining to do, regarding this whole arrangement.

[Ragnorak]

Ser Loudmouth, on 15 July 2012 - 05:31 AM, said:

Until now, of all "seers", Maggy Spicer seems to have been the most accurate by far


I believe the whole thing must have been discussed in advance, before Robb showed up. If Rolf Spicer had surendered his castle, given his daughter in marriage and entered the service of an enemy king, before resuming contact with Tywin, then Tywin would be at least a bit suspicious. And we know what Tywin does to disloyal subjects.

Castamere used to be a symbol of Tywin's ruthlesness towards tohoose who disobeyed him. Now it risks becoming a symbol of Tywin's leniency towards those who deserted him. That's why I said that Tywin must have never even doubted Rolf Spicer's loyalty.

Agree with everything but the Castamere part.  The Spicers surviving period is what might be mistaken for Tywin's leniency.  Everyone knows Tywin was in on the Red Wedding and Castamere is the perfect reward to disuade any doubts that the Spicers earned their pardon.  I just don't think they could have specifically planned the Red Wedding from that early a stage given all the variables and unknowns.  Rolph seems to have been a complete Tywin loyalist the whole time.  I suspect Sybell was prepared to betray either one though if someone said she was definitely a Tywin pawn I wouldn't argue it.

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“Rollam is with me, but Raynald was a knight and went with the rebels to the Twins. If I had known what was to happen there, I would never have allowed that.” There was a hint of reproach in her voice. “Raynald knew nought of any... of the understanding with your lord father.

She certainly had an "understanding" with Tywin but the actual Red Wedding events took her by surprise.

Sybell means oracle or prophet and many claim that given the Maggy the Frog connection the name means she has the gift.  With Robb wounded she would have easy access to his blood to make a Maggy type fortune telling.  With the Red Wedding taking her off guard I have no idea what she might have seen or how it played into her thinking. (other than Robb's death in general swaying her to side with Tywin.)

[Kernest]

I seriously doubt any of it was staged. The whole Robb+Jeyne thing just happened, and afterwards those future conspirators started messaging Tywin saying: "if there is ANYTHING we can do, if you know what I mean..." Also perhaps taking some initiatives of their own (such as preventing Jeyne's pregnancy).

[TheEvilKing]

There's definitely some level of co-operation between the Westerlings/Spicers and Lord Tywin, as is evidenced by the conversation between Tywin and Tyrion in ASoS. I'm not entirely sure Jeyne isn't complicit in the whole thing (although I find the "hips switch" theory just as compelling).

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"Jeyne Westerling is her mother's daughter," said Lord Tywin. "And Robb Stark is his father's son."

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This Westerling betrayal did not seem to have enraged his father as much as Tyrion would have expected.

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"They are well aware of Castamere, I promise you."
"Could the Westerlings and Spicers be such fools to believe the wolf can defeat the lion?"
Every once in a very long while, Tywin Lannister would actually threaten to smile; he never did, but the threat enough was terrible to behold. "The greatest fools are ofttimes more clever than the men who laugh at them."

[Swordsaint]

Naw, I'm not buying it. Maggi is a blood mage. She didn't have flames to look into like Mel. She would have needed a lot of blood to predict all of that. It was just random events fueled by fear and greed.

[Ser Loudmouth]

Ragnorak, on 15 July 2012 - 07:55 AM, said:

Agree with everything but the Castamere part. The Spicers surviving period is what might be mistaken for Tywin's leniency. Everyone knows Tywin was in on the Red Wedding and Castamere is the perfect reward to disuade any doubts that the Spicers earned their pardon.

We know that the Lannisters and the Spicers had some kind of understanding, but when did that understanfding happen? I see Tywin's attitude as a clue: If Rolf Spicer had surrendered his castle and married his niece to an enemy Lord, and only after that had come back to Tywin seeking reconcilliation, Tywin should think something like that: "Rolf Spicer is a cowardly opportunist who is ready to betray anyone. If we win this war I might let him live but I should give him a stern warning not to do such things again" But if Rolf Spicer had requested in advance the permission to infiltrate the enemy faction and bring it down from the inside, then Tywin should think something like this: "Rolf Spicer is a most valuable and loyal servant. If we win this war I will shower him with rewards and honors to show that I allways trusted him". And this is what we see happening in the Book.
More clues are to be found in the Conversation between Sybel and Jaime. There we find out that Sybel expects even more rewards: good marriages for their daughter. It is clear that what the Spicers are seeking is not mercy and forgiveness, but rewards and gratitude. They clearly feel no guilt towards the Lannisters. Further evidence that the whole Spicer "defection" was authorised in advance.
Sybel also states that Tywin Lannister "bid her" to prevent Jeyne's pregnancy. If we assume this request was made before Jeyne and Robb started having sex, this is a further evidence of an early agreement.

And if all this was planned in advance, it means the conspirators had expected the whole Robb+Jeyne love affair and marriage, which was an extremely unlikely event, so they must have had some foreknwledge of it.

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Sybell was prepared to betray either one though if someone said she was definitely a Tywin pawn I wouldn't argue it. She certainly had an "understanding" with Tywin but the actual Red Wedding events took her by surprise. Sybell means oracle or prophet and many claim that given the Maggy the Frog connection the name means she has the gift. With Robb wounded she would have easy access to his blood to make a Maggy type fortune telling. With the Red Wedding taking her off guard I have no idea what she might have seen or how it played into her thinking. (other than Robb's death in general swaying her to side with Tywin.)

Sybell being surprised by her son's death is indeed a possible counterargument to the ideea that the Spicers posess foresight, but I can think of some explanations:
- even blood based foresight can fail sometimes
- Sybell somehow never bothered to do a "blood test" on her own son
- she did know what would happen but for some reason she did not prevent it and is now simply feigning surprise and grief

Swordsaint, on 15 July 2012 - 09:23 AM, said:

Naw, I'm not buying it. Maggi is a blood mage. She didn't have flames to look into like Mel. She would have needed a lot of blood to predict all of that. It was just random events fueled by fear and greed.

Even without fire, Maggi seems to have been miles ahead of Melisandre when it comes to predictiong the future.
And did you think about why she was doing that? She did not need the money. It's more likely that she was doing it to gather information on certain people, and manipulate them

[Kernest]

TheEvilKing, on 15 July 2012 - 08:39 AM, said:

There's definitely some level of co-operation between the Westerlings/Spicers and Lord Tywin, as is evidenced by the conversation between Tywin and Tyrion in ASoS. I'm not entirely sure Jeyne isn't complicit in the whole thing (although I find the "hips switch" theory just as compelling).

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"Jeyne Westerling is her mother's daughter," said Lord Tywin. "And Robb Stark is his father's son."

What do we actually know about Jeynes mother? That's like Genna (the aunt) saying that Tyrion, not Jaime, is Tywin's son. The only meaning I can see behind that phrase is that Jeyne's mom was a little "loose" with the boys, if you know what I mean

From what we see and hear of Jeyne from Catelyns and later her brief appereance in Jaime POVs, she really loved Robb and I don't believe it all was just an act.

Even if you took into account blood magic and all that, I find it extremely far fetched that Tywin told the Crag to surrender and push Jeyne into Robb's arms. It reeks of opportunism to me, not pre-planned betrayal.

[Jolene Brown]

Kernest, on 16 July 2012 - 03:34 AM, said:

What do we actually know about Jeynes mother? That's like Genna (the aunt) saying that Tyrion, not Jaime, is Tywin's son. The only meaning I can see behind that phrase is that Jeyne's mom was a little "loose" with the boys, if you know what I mean

I think we get a lot about Jeyne's mother from the scenes with her and Jaime.  She is obviously not a pleasant person.  However, we could ask what Tywin knows about Jeyne...

[Every]

I think a better question to evaluate Tywin's comment is what Tywin actually knows about Jeyne. Mrs. Spicer would have told Tywin what he wanted to hear - that Jeyne would be as complicit and committed to the plan as she was - and I doubt Tywin would have known Jeyne at all well enough to tell if that was the truth.

[Ser Loudmouth]

Kernest, on 16 July 2012 - 03:34 AM, said:

Even if you took into account blood magic and all that, I find it extremely far fetched that Tywin told the Crag to surrender and push Jeyne into Robb's arms. It reeks of opportunism to me, not pre-planned betrayal.

I thought the same when I was reading book 3: that Tywin was just taking advantage of an unexpected opportunity. But in Book 4, after some details about the deal between Lannisters and Spicers came out, I started having doubts. I asked myself: How far back was this thing planned? And how deeply were the Spicers involved?