60 replies to this topic

[Maxpey]

Grimwolfe, on 14 July 2012 - 08:44 PM, said:

you're forgetting some of the Westerlings were very fond of Robb, more so than the lannisters. Especially the one that tried to save greywind

   That was Raynauld Westerling, Lady Sybell's son.  I would tend to think that if the Westerlings were in on the RW, then they would not have let their son attend.

It seems rather far-fetched to believe that Jeyne marrying Robb was a plot hatched between Tywin and the Westerlings/Spicers.  So many things had to go exactly right in such a short period of time for them to be able to pull it off.

I also think the Roose Bolton came up with the idea for the RW first, engaged the Freys, and they sent a raven to Tywin seeking terms.

[just an Other]

Was Tywin even aware with the arrangements made by Lady Catelyn and Walder Frey? Did he know that Robb was betrothed to a Frey?

[Ser Loudmouth]

Maxpey, on 16 July 2012 - 02:53 PM, said:

   That was Raynauld Westerling, Lady Sybell's son.  I would tend to think that if the Westerlings were in on the RW, then they would not have let their son attend.

I allso think of the Westerlings as the "honourable" side of the family.

Quote

It seems rather far-fetched to believe that Jeyne marrying Robb was a plot hatched between Tywin and the Westerlings/Spicers.  So many things had to go exactly right in such a short period of time for them to be able to pull it off.

That's why I said that if the Jeyne+Robb marriage was planned in advance (as AFFC could suggest) then it must have been based on magical foresight.

just an Other, on 16 July 2012 - 03:08 PM, said:

Was Tywin even aware with the arrangements made by Lady Catelyn and Walder Frey? Did he know that Robb was betrothed to a Frey?

Tywin could have found out about this by interrogating captured prisoners... or through the aforementioned magical means

[kg1982]

The Spicers are being vapid social climbers.. They remind me of the villains in an Austen novel, especially Sybil Spicer.  Greedy people playing both sides for their personal gain.  

As for the comment about Jeyne being her mother's daugter, I'm assuming that Tywin is referring to the fact that Sybil married/ slept her way into a higher social station.

[Lord Martin]

I tend to prefer to most reasonable solutions to questions like this.  

IMO, the Spicers were playing both sides because they had to.  The number one rule in Westeros is this... survive!  

So here is my theory on how it plays out:

Robb took everyone by surprise when he was able to go around the Golden Tooth and march into the Westerlands.  So no one knew that was going to happen so it cannot be a planned event.  (Mid-End ACOK)

Robb gets to the Crag and gets wounded while taking it.  He falls for Jeyne as described and Sybil Spicer says, "oh crap, now what do I do."  Again, the rule is "survive."  If they join the Starks and the Starks loose, Tywin will destroy the Westerlings.  But the Starks have an army sitting in their castle, so they cannot openly defy Robb.  The only option is to play both sides and hope you don't get caught. (End of COK)

So the Westerlings play nice with Robb Stark and Jeyne marries him happy as she can be.

Word of the Wedding reaches the Twins before anywhere else because the Freys were at the Crag to see it first hand.  They then have the scene at Harrenhal where they complain about it to Roose Bolton.  Then Bolton directs Ramsay to take Winterfell and save the Frey Wards. (End of COK)

Meanwhile, Sybil writes to Tywin, remember we don't get his POV in ASOS but we get Tyrion's line about wars being won with ravens.  So Sybil writes, "Dear Tywin, the Starks took my castle and married my daughter.  We are your ever loyal servants, what can we do to play this to your advantage?  I await instructions." (Opening of ASOS)

Then Tywin gets the letter and being the genius he is, replies, "Marry Stark, no children or heirs, I'll take care of the rest."  You will be rewarded if this pays off.

Then he simply needs to reach out to Walder Frey and says, "Hey tough break about Robb Stark breaking his oath.  Now that Winterfell has been sacked, do you want to still be a rebel or do you want to return to the King's good graces."

Walder then just needs to say yes and then tells Tywin, "You'll need a new warden of the North, House Bolton is down to betray the Starks and I just married my granddaughter off to him.  How about we get them in on the action too."

Then as Meritt Frey says, Lame Lothar and Roose Bolton planned the RW.

This makes the most sense to me and doesn't require any love potions or bizarre plots.  Just a bunch of people acting consistent with their characters and motivations.

[salt242]

I just finished affc and have been thinking on this a lot. I figure Lord Gawen surrendered the castle without orders from Lord Tywin. Seeing an opportunity for advancement the Spicers then approach Tywin and offer up their service. Then Roose Bolton lets Tywin know what going down at Winterfell.  Jeynes a pretty little thing, and Rob a handsome young king. Knowing their natures, Sybell is instructed to make sure they spend as much time together as possible, and let nature run its course. Maybe she even suggests that Jeyne "comfort" Rob after the fall Winterfell.  

This would explain why Rolph Spicer was named Lord of Castamere, while the Westerlings were offered up a bastard.

I don't think Jeyne had anything to do with any of these plans. She fell into it just as Rob did. She is righteously angry with her mother,and her grief seems real. There was no reason for her to put on show for Jaimes benefit. If some love spell had been used it surely would have run its course by now.

[femfatalatron]

I'd have to check the book for details (not something I'm going to do at the moment because I'm supposed to be doing "real" work and I'm taking a few minutes to procrastinate here) but I can quickly look at this handy reference map ...

The westerlands are some tricky, mountainous terrain, and I'd expect Tywin to know it like the back of his hand. Robb was at the time pulling some guerilla moves, rather that full-frontal attacks and long-term seiges, so I think Tywin could expect him not to try to take Casterly Rock at that juncture. He could expect him to go for relatively weakly garrisoned castles, whose terrain might allow Robb to get his armies in and out pretty quickly, and/or that would offer them strategic advantage if they could occupy them. I think, being a good strategist familiar with the terrain, Tywin would have been able to make an educated guess about where the northmen would be likely to strike.

I wouldn't be surprised (though these other possibilities wouldn't be relevant to the story) if he'd have made other plans with other of his bannermen in vulnerable places, using whatever assets they'd had available to them. Not everyone has a pretty teenage daughter, but there are many and varied ways to sneakily take a guy down.

There aren't many instances in these novels of prophecy being actually very dependable or useful... just of prophecies making people preoccupied or crazy.

[femfatalatron]

And yes, I do think much of the events leading up to the RW were opportunistic, but Tywin is good at creating the right conditions for certain opportunities to come up, taking good bets but hedging them anyway, preparing ahead of time so he can strike quickly when he gets a bit of good luck, that sort of thing.

[tubbletian]

I'm really intrigued by this, I always put it down to Tywin's genius planning, but if someone could point out specifics in AFfC/anywhere that made them think twice? I hate the idea that there was any sort of magic behind the conception of the RW, because I feel that would cheapen the whole thing.

[Apple Martini]

tubbletian, on 16 July 2012 - 09:01 PM, said:

I'm really intrigued by this, I always put it down to Tywin's genius planning, but if someone could point out specifics in AFfC/anywhere that made them think twice? I hate the idea that there was any sort of magic behind the conception of the RW, because I feel that would cheapen the whole thing.

Basically, Jaime's chapters at Riverrun suggest that something is amiss with the whole thing.

-Catelyn describes Jeyne's hips as wide, but Jaime describes them as narrow.
-The Blackfish tells Jaime that he swore to defend Robb's queen, yet he bails in the middle of the night and leaves her? Please.
-Sybell tells Jaime that Jeyne was beaten for not giving up her crown, yet we (and Jaime) never see this crown and it's never mentioned again. It's not surrendered to Jaime.
-The Stark sigil still flies over Riverrun, and is taken down during the night, not when the castle formally surrenders. If it's acting as a residency banner, its lowering could signify, subtly, that the queen (and possibly the heir) is gone.
-We only have Sybell's word for it that she gave Jeyne contraception. There's no actual proof.
-Jeyne shreds her clothes and takes pains to keep her face hidden on the road west, possibly to prevent people from recognizing her.
-Jeyne's sister is not on the inventory and isn't mentioned at all when Jaime meets Sybell, even though she should be there.
-What happened with Raynald should show that the Westerlings weren't as "in" with Tywin as some might think.

Here's what I think happened. Sybell and her brother are scheming, but Jeyne and her siblings are not. I think that Sybell actually did give Jeyne fertility potion, knowing that if she did get pregnant, she could always give her moon tea to terminate it if she had to. Basically, she played both sides with the whole thing: If Robb won, Jeyne had a good chance of being pregnant, and if he lost, Jeyne's pregnancy could be terminated and no one would be the wiser.

I think that Jeyne, her sister, Edmure and the Blackfish schemed together when Edmure went in to negotiate the surrender. They smuggled Jeyne out, without Sybell's knowledge. Sybell beat her younger daughter (which is how she really got the marks that Jaime sees), but she couldn't let Jaime know that Jeyne escaped, so she was forced to play along. Sybell could also tell Jaime that she gave Jeyne moon tea, because there was no chance that her sister was going to turn up pregnant.

Edited by Apple Martini, 16 July 2012 - 09:14 PM.

[Winter In My Heart]

Okay I could be completely wrong about this, I haven't read the forth book but I've read enough to get the gist of the whole Jamie scene with Sybil. But didn't Jeyne tell Catelyn that she was taking a 'fertility potion'? I could have swore she did at one point when her and Lady Stark were speaking in ASoS. I'm not trying to disprove anything, since I actually like the whole Jeyne switch theory, so someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm rather confused and I thought I remembered reading that during one of the encounters where it was just her and Jeyne in the room. (I think it was the same scene where Jeyne was asking what she should do about Robb and Catelyn said to just be patient and that he'd come around etc.)

[Apple Martini]

Iikaitlynii, on 16 July 2012 - 09:27 PM, said:

Okay I could be completely wrong about this, I haven't read the forth book but I've read enough to get the gist of the whole Jamie scene with Sybil. But didn't Jeyne tell Catelyn that she was taking a 'fertility potion'? I could have swore she did at one point when her and Lady Stark were speaking in ASoS. I'm not trying to disprove anything, since I actually like the whole Jeyne switch theory, so someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm rather confused and I thought I remembered reading that during one of the encounters where it was just her and Jeyne in the room. (I think it was the same scene where Jeyne was asking what she should do about Robb and Catelyn said to just be patient and that he'd come around etc.)

Yes, she did. The disagreement stems from whether it was actually a fertility potion, or the contraceptives that Sybell told Jaime about.

[tubbletian]

Apple Martini, on 16 July 2012 - 09:13 PM, said:

Basically, Jaime's chapters at Riverrun suggest that something is amiss with the whole thing.

-Catelyn describes Jeyne's hips as wide, but Jaime describes them as narrow.
-The Blackfish tells Jaime that he swore to defend Robb's queen, yet he bails in the middle of the night and leaves her? Please.
-Sybell tells Jaime that Jeyne was beaten for not giving up her crown, yet we (and Jaime) never see this crown and it's never mentioned again. It's not surrendered to Jaime.
-The Stark sigil still flies over Riverrun, and is taken down during the night, not when the castle formally surrenders. If it's acting as a residency banner, its lowering could signify, subtly, that the queen (and possibly the heir) is gone.
-We only have Sybell's word for it that she gave Jeyne contraception. There's no actual proof.
-Jeyne shreds her clothes and takes pains to keep her face hidden on the road west, possibly to prevent people from recognizing her.
-Jeyne's sister is not on the inventory and isn't mentioned at all when Jaime meets Sybell, even though she should be there.
-What happened with Raynald should show that the Westerlings weren't as "in" with Tywin as some might think.

Here's what I think happened. Sybell and her brother are scheming, but Jeyne and her siblings are not. I think that Sybell actually did give Jeyne fertility potion, knowing that if she did get pregnant, she could always give her moon tea to terminate it if she had to. Basically, she played both sides with the whole thing: If Robb won, Jeyne had a good chance of being pregnant, and if he lost, Jeyne's pregnancy could be terminated and no one would be the wiser.

I think that Jeyne, her sister, Edmure and the Blackfish schemed together when Edmure went in to negotiate the surrender. They smuggled Jeyne out, without Sybell's knowledge. Sybell beat her younger daughter (which is how she really got the marks that Jaime sees), but she couldn't let Jaime know that Jeyne escaped, so she was forced to play along. Sybell could also tell Jaime that she gave Jeyne moon tea, because there was no chance that her sister was going to turn up pregnant.

But this doesn't implicate the Spicers/Westerlings in the conception of the RW plan? Is there evidence to this, and that the Stark/Westerling "alliance" was planned right back to them surrendering The Crag?
edit: I've always been a supporter of the Jeyne Westerling switch theory since I first saw it, so no quips on those events.

Edited by tubbletian, 16 July 2012 - 09:32 PM.

[Apple Martini]

tubbletian, on 16 July 2012 - 09:31 PM, said:

But this doesn't implicate the Spicers/Westerlings in the conception of the RW plan? Is there evidence to this, and that the Stark/Westerling "alliance" was planned right back to them surrendering The Crag?

I don't think they were in on the Red Wedding. Sybell implies to Jaime that she had no idea what was going on there and would not have sent Raynald if she had known. I also don't think there was any scheming going on when Robb took the Crag. That implies a level of control and omnipotence that Tywin just plain doesn't have. If anything, the Westerlings may have gotten in touch with Tywin after the fact, but I don't believe there was anything to it before. Too much was out of Tywin's control there — Robb had to successfully take the castle, get wounded, survive the wound, allow Jeyne to "nurse" him, deflower her and "do the honorable" thing.

ETA: Rolph Spicer gets Castamere, but I can't for the life of me figure out why. I can't see anything that he (or Sybell, even) did that warranted that boon. The Red Wedding was the brainchild of Roose and the Freys, and Robb broke his oath to the Freys on his own. Not sure what the Spicers even did that merits the rewards, unless it's based solely on the understanding that Jeyne was not to get pregnant.

Edited by Apple Martini, 16 July 2012 - 09:37 PM.

[Winter In My Heart]

Apple Martini, on 16 July 2012 - 09:30 PM, said:

Yes, she did. The disagreement stems from whether it was actually a fertility potion, or the contraceptives that Sybell told Jaime about.

Aaah okay thanks for clearing that up! Well if I had to give an opinion right this minute, honestly Sybil sounds like a 'playing both sides' type. I guess I can't really say any thing more until I read more of the forth book but from what I've heard of how 'Jeyne' acts in front of Jamie, I always got the impression she was quiet and shy, despite the fact she may have been nervous around Catelyn, so I would think that's out of character for her.

[tubbletian]

Apple Martini, on 16 July 2012 - 09:34 PM, said:

ETA: Rolph Spicer gets Castamere, but I can't for the life of me figure out why. I can't see anything that he (or Sybell, even) did that warranted that boon. The Red Wedding was the brainchild of Roose and the Freys, and Robb broke his oath to the Freys on his own. Not sure what the Spicers even did that merits the rewards, unless it's based solely on the understanding that Jeyne was not to get pregnant.

Yeah, so far this is the only thing that I can think of that makes people think they had more involvement, it's a very uncharacteristically kind gesture from Tywin, I would have thought they would have lost lands/holdings for being traitors, and their reward for not botching the RW and not letting Jeyne be pregnant would be they get to live. Agreed with the very difficult to plan events leading up to the marriage being impossible to plan.

[salt242]

Apple Martini, on 16 July 2012 - 09:13 PM, said:

Basically, Jaime's chapters at Riverrun suggest that something is amiss with the whole thing.

-Catelyn describes Jeyne's hips as wide, but Jaime describes them as narrow.
-The Blackfish tells Jaime that he swore to defend Robb's queen, yet he bails in the middle of the night and leaves her? Please.
-Sybell tells Jaime that Jeyne was beaten for not giving up her crown, yet we (and Jaime) never see this crown and it's never mentioned again. It's not surrendered to Jaime.
-The Stark sigil still flies over Riverrun, and is taken down during the night, not when the castle formally surrenders. If it's acting as a residency banner, its lowering could signify, subtly, that the queen (and possibly the heir) is gone.
-We only have Sybell's word for it that she gave Jeyne contraception. There's no actual proof.
-Jeyne shreds her clothes and takes pains to keep her face hidden on the road west, possibly to prevent people from recognizing her.
-Jeyne's sister is not on the inventory and isn't mentioned at all when Jaime meets Sybell, even though she should be there.
-What happened with Raynald should show that the Westerlings weren't as "in" with Tywin as some might think.

Here's what I think happened. Sybell and her brother are scheming, but Jeyne and her siblings are not. I think that Sybell actually did give Jeyne fertility potion, knowing that if she did get pregnant, she could always give her moon tea to terminate it if she had to. Basically, she played both sides with the whole thing: If Robb won, Jeyne had a good chance of being pregnant, and if he lost, Jeyne's pregnancy could be terminated and no one would be the wiser.

I think that Jeyne, her sister, Edmure and the Blackfish schemed together when Edmure went in to negotiate the surrender. They smuggled Jeyne out, without Sybell's knowledge. Sybell beat her younger daughter (which is how she really got the marks that Jaime sees), but she couldn't let Jaime know that Jeyne escaped, so she was forced to play along. Sybell could also tell Jaime that she gave Jeyne moon tea, because there was no chance that her sister was going to turn up pregnant.

Okay. Seeing it all laid out like this, I'm convinced.  Is it at all possible that the crown Lady Stoneheart has belongs to Jeyne rather that Rob? I have asked about this before and was told that she'd gotten it from the Freys they'd killed. I wasn't quite sure about that, since Jaime had ordered them to leave the crown behind. Were the Blackfish and his party close enough to Lady Stoneheart to have reached her by the time Bri arrived?

[Apple Martini]

salt242, on 16 July 2012 - 10:26 PM, said:

Okay. Seeing it all laid out like this, I'm convinced.  Is it at all possible that the crown Lady Stoneheart has belongs to Jeyne rather that Rob? I have asked about this before and was told that she'd gotten it from the Freys they'd killed. I wasn't quite sure about that, since Jaime had ordered them to leave the crown behind. Were the Blackfish and his party close enough to Lady Stoneheart to have reached her by the time Bri arrived?

Nope, it can't be Jeyne's crown. Jaime sees Ryman with it (or, Ryman's whore wearing it) before the castle surrenders and Jaime gets in to see Jeyne. No one has gotten into Riverrun since the Blackfish boarded it up. There's no way the Freys would have been able to get in and get Jeyne's crown. Ryman has also already left (and presumably been hanged) before Jaime goes in to see Sybell. The crown Ryman had, and which Brienne later sees UnCat holding, was Robb's crown. As for Jaime telling Ryman to leave the crown, the obvious answer is that Ryman is a shit and took the crown with him.

Edited by Apple Martini, 16 July 2012 - 10:37 PM.

[salt242]

Apple Martini, on 16 July 2012 - 10:36 PM, said:

Nope, it can't be Jeyne's crown. Jaime sees Ryman with it (or, Ryman's whore wearing it) before the castle surrenders and Jaime gets in to see Jeyne. No one has gotten into Riverrun since the Blackfish boarded it up. There's no way the Freys would have been able to get in and get Jeyne's crown. Ryman has also already left (and presumably been hanged) before Jaime goes in to see Sybell. The crown Ryman had, and which Brienne later sees UnCat holding, was Robb's crown. As for Jaime telling Ryman to leave the crown, the obvious answer is that Ryman is a shit and took the crown with him.

Got it!  Wonder how many times I'll have to read these books before I can keep it all straight.

Thanks for clearing that up. Its been driving me mad for sometime.

[Faint]

Apple Martini, on 16 July 2012 - 09:34 PM, said:

ETA: Rolph Spicer gets Castamere, but I can't for the life of me figure out why. I can't see anything that he (or Sybell, even) did that warranted that boon. The Red Wedding was the brainchild of Roose and the Freys, and Robb broke his oath to the Freys on his own. Not sure what the Spicers even did that merits the rewards, unless it's based solely on the understanding that Jeyne was not to get pregnant.

There must be something to this . . .

Quote

“It would have been kinder to leave her with a bastard in her belly,” said Tyrion bluntly. The Westerlings stood to lose everything here; their lands, their castle, their very lives. A Lannister always pays his debts.

“Jeyne Westerling is her mother’s daughter,” said Lord Tywin, “and Robb Stark is his father’s son.”

This Westerling betrayal did not seem to have enraged his father as much as Tyrion would have expected. Lord Tywin did not suffer disloyalty in his vassals. He had extinguished the proud Reynes of Castamere and the ancient Tarbecks of Tarbeck Hall root and branch when he was still half a boy. The singers had even made a rather gloomy song of it. Some years later, when Lord Farman of Faircastle grew truculent, Lord Tywin sent an envoy bearing a lute instead of a letter. But once he’d heard “The Rains of Castamere” echoing through his hall, Lord Farman gave no further trouble. And if the song were not enough, the shattered castles of the Reynes and Tarbecks still stood as mute testimony to the fate that awaited those who chose to scorn the power of Casterly Rock.

“The Crag is not so far from Tarbeck Hall and Castamere,” Tyrion pointed out. “You’d think the Westerlings might have ridden past and seen the lesson there.”

“Mayhaps they have,” Lord Tywin said. “They are well aware of Castamere, I promise you.”

“Could the Westerlings and Spicers be such great fools as to believe the wolf can defeat the lion?”

Every once in a very long while, Lord Tywin Lannister would actually threaten to smile; he never did, but the threat alone was terrible to behold. “The greatest fools are ofttimes more clever than the men who laugh at them . . ."

Martin, George R.R. A Storm of Swords (p. 272). Bantam. Kindle Edition.

Clearly the leadership of the family is working hand-in-hand with Tywin at that point.