367 replies to this topic

[romantic]

I had posted this elsewhere (http://asoiaf.wester...60#entry3397768) but another poster suggested it needed its own thread. So, my theory about Jon's 'attack'.


'Jon twisted from the knife, just enough so it barely grazed his skin. He cut me. When he put his hand to the side of his neck, blood welled between his fingers. "Why?" (ADWD2:440)

A knife barely grazes his skin but blood wells between his finger. How sharp was that blade considering it was only steel ('he saw the glint of steel')? Could the blade have something on it that makes it very effective or 'look' very effective?

"For the Watch." Wick slashed at him again. This time Jon caught his wrist and bent his arm back until he dropped the dagger. The gangling steward backed away, his hands upraised as if to say, Not me, it was not me.'

Jon reacted quickly to disarm Wick (who was admittedly not a fighter). Wick backs away because he doesn't want to fight and/or doesn't want to get hurt (even though he 'attacked' Jon in front of NW, wildings and an angry giant!)

'Men were screaming'

Not shouting (like hardened warriors), but screaming like they were hurt/injured/being attacked (possibly by Wun Wun but maybe something else was happening - Mel might be up to something).

'Jon reached for Longclaw but his fingers had grown stiff and clumsy. Somehow he could not get the sword free of its scabbard'

After 1 graze he was:
a. in shock already - though was a trained and experienced fighter
b. badly injured - from a graze?
c. confused and surprised - though he was a trained and experienced fighter
d. poisoned by the blade - fast acting and already slowing his reflexes
e. dosed with sedative from a treated blade - fast acting and already slowing his reflexes

'Then Bowen Marsh stood there, before him, tears running down his cheeks. "For the Watch." He punched Jon the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.'

Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger's hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold knight air the wound was smoking. "Ghost," he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end. When the third dagger took him between the shoudler blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold...'

Why was the wound smoking? Was it from Jon (Targ blood?) or the dagger (fire magic?). If he had been dosed with a sedative he would lose motor function and then collapse. Same thing would probably happen with a poison but who would want him dead. Obviously Bowen Marsh and co. ('for the Watch') but they've just let 1000s of wildlings through the Wall who are allied with Jon. It would be a death wish for them. How badly do they want to die?

What if (crackpot theory alert) the whole 'attack' was a mummery because they (Bowen Marsh and co. and Mel) didn't want Jon to leave the Wall. They only left the meeting after Jon said he was sending the NW to Hardhome while he was going to Winterfell. Mel could have sent Ser Patreck after Wun Wun and provided Marsh and Co. with equipment (she may have foreseen Jon's leaving and prepared beforehand). Obviously the NW faction wouldn't want any more NW sent away (especially to help wildlings) but if they had let Jon leave, after forsaking his vows, they would be rid of him and he'd be a deserter with a death sentence on his head. They could then recall the NW from the Hardhome expedition. Wouldn't that be the easiest/safest option for them?

So why 'attack' him? Unless Mel wanted Jon to stay at the Wall? She senses he has 'power' if he'll use it. A fake attack in which he appears to die might:-
a.  enable her to sacrifice him. She could burn his (actually living  but apparently dead) body (because they wouldn't want him to come back as a wight). If R+L=J, he would have the king's blood that she needs (even if he is just a Stark he would have king's blood from the Kings of the North). If he is Stark/Targ he would be a richer source of king's blood then Mance or baby Mance and have significantly more life force than Master Aemon, so provide a more powerful offering. The Starks 'are' the North - sacrificing a Stark might be even more powerful.
b. put him in a coma or deep sleep from which she can 'magically' save him - proving her power and concern for him;
c. put him in a coma or deep sleep during which he might access the power of the Wall/North.
d. burn him in the hopes of awakening his Targ side (if R+L=J).

'For the Watch'

The wildlings trust Jon, they don't trust the NW. The NW are outnumbered significantly by the wildings. If Jon leaves the Wall, the NW are surrounded by 1000s of wildings, most of whom hate them. If Marsh and co. want control of the NW they just have to let Jon leave. If they wanted to kill Jon they should have done something about him before they let 1000s more through the Wall. Now they need him and they need him at the Wall. They might have willingly helped Mel is she promised that Jon would 'stay at the Wall' (survived in his original state might not have been mentioned) or she might have controlled them somehow - I'm not sure. The stewards are the 'smart' part of the NW so, if they really wanted Jon out, they would have just let him go

Edited by romantic, 16 July 2012 - 09:17 PM.

[thetitansbastard]

My first thought upon reading Wick's line was that he was being warged or was otherwise possessed when he attacked Jon. I never really noticed that Jon had only suffered a graze, nice catch.  I also find it very interesting that Bowen was bawling for some reason.  I definitely agree that something is very fishy with this whole scene.

[Jon Flowers]

Blood is 98.6 degrees F on average, therefore it steams or "smokes" in the cold just like your breath will.

[Pod The Impaler]

romantic, on 16 July 2012 - 09:13 PM, said:

'Jon twisted from the knife, just enough so it barely grazed his skin. He cut me. When he put his hand to the side of his neck, blood welled between his fingers. "Why?" (ADWD2:440)

A knife barely grazes his skin but blood wells between his finger. How sharp was that blade considering it was only steel ('he saw the glint of steel')? Could the blade have something on it that makes it very effective or 'look' very effective?

It's from his own POV - often one does not realize a deep wound is so bad, at first.
Wick may not have got Jon as bad as he wanted, but still quite seriously.

romantic, on 16 July 2012 - 09:13 PM, said:

'Men were screaming'

Not shouting (like hardened warriors), but screaming like they were hurt/injured/being attacked (possibly by Wun Wun but maybe something else was happening - Mel might be up to something).

I have thought the same myself. It is not just Jon and the betrayers in that room.

romantic, on 16 July 2012 - 09:13 PM, said:

'Jon reached for Longclaw but his fingers had grown stiff and clumsy. Somehow he could not get the sword free of its scabbard'

After 1 graze he was:
a. in shock already - though was a trained and experienced fighter
b. badly injured - from a graze?

Yes, I think so, shock, clumsiness + general surprise.
He is trained and experienced, but has this happened to him before? His experience had him disarm Wick by reflex on the 2nd strike.

romantic, on 16 July 2012 - 09:13 PM, said:

'Then Bowen Marsh stood there, before him, tears running down his cheeks. "For the Watch." He punched Jon the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.'

Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger's hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold knight air the wound was smoking. "Ghost," he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end. When the third dagger took him between the shoudler blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold...'

Why was the wound smoking? Was it from Jon (Targ blood?) or the dagger (fire magic?). If he had been dosed with a sedative he would lose motor function and then collapse. Same thing would probably happen with a poison but who would want him dead. Obviously Bowen Marsh and co. ('for the Watch') but they've just let 1000s of wildlings through the Wall who are allied with Jon. It would be a death wish for them. How badly do they want to die?

The "smoking" effect is likely just from hot blood touching cold air, like one's breath. The rest is consistent with a stab wound in real life; many victims have reported thinking they were punched, only to realize after it was a stab. Then the pain sets in, shortly after.



I think the attack is genuine. The betrayers in fact think Jon is betraying them, they may think he's broken his vows and turned half wildling (and remember these are the ones who are the most shortsighted and hate wildlings.

Plus, I have a feeling that somewhere in this mess, Ser Alliser Thorne has his hands on the puppet strings.

[Michael Snow]

I don't really get why so many people fixate on Jon not reacting like the perfect ninja in that fateful scene. People will go all over the map with the most far fetched explanations - about warging, poison, magic - because Jon didn't pull Longclaw out in time. The whole attack would have taken how long in real time? Less than a minute, even. Jon was stunned and got attacked while in the midst of friends. They came at him from all sides, one after another, and then swarmed him when he was down. I don't think Jon's done and gone from the series, but I do think he got shanked by his brothers of the Night's Watch. I don't think they were under mind control, either, I think a lot of them had been growing worried about his unorthodox style and obvious loyalties. When he made his announcement it was the last straw for that faction of Black Brothers. Then they stabbed him.

The scene sort of makes me think of Julius Caesar's murder.

[JimWolf]

The attack strikes me as genuine.  Just some of the Watch with a few blades.  Perhaps the Queen's men were in on it to provide a distraction with Wun Wun.  That might account for the screaming.  I think it's very survivable.  I'm mostly worried about the gut wound.  The grazed neck is meh.  The stab in the back is recoverable, but if he's got a punctured liver, or spleen, or intestines he could be in real trouble.  Then there's the whole "where is the 4th wound and were there more after he blacked out" thing.

I totally agree with Michael Snow, it's very Julius Caesar-esque.

[Rohed]

Jon was trying to deal with gaint issue at hand, ad his hand does have a burn preventing good grip unless he has been flexing it.

Mel deing out of the picture is something to look at, but i dont beleave she would be behind this. After all, she seems to like Jon.

Why would they kill Jon and still hope to defend themselves from the wildlings? where they not in the room where everyone just agreed to join Jon? I get what they did and why, but they must know it would be the end of them aswell.


I will add, could the screaming be the wildlings being murdered? another RD thingo

Edited by Rohed, 16 July 2012 - 09:57 PM.

[Rohed]

JimWolf, on 16 July 2012 - 09:53 PM, said:

The attack strikes me as genuine.  Just some of the Watch with a few blades.  Perhaps the Queen's men were in on it to provide a distraction with Wun Wun.  That might account for the screaming.  I think it's very survivable.  I'm mostly worried about the gut wound.  The grazed neck is meh.  The stab in the back is recoverable, but if he's got a punctured liver, or spleen, or intestines he could be in real trouble.  Then there's the whole "where is the 4th wound and were there more after he blacked out" thing.

I totally agree with Michael Snow, it's very Julius Caesar-esque.

The neck could be deeper than he thinks, He did have bloody hands.
The gut what you said...
The back could put him in Brans place

[Rhaegar Targaryen's Ghost]

Jon Flowers, on 16 July 2012 - 09:30 PM, said:

Blood is 98.6 degrees F on average, therefore it steams or "smokes" in the cold just like your breath will.

i think GRRM picked smoke for a reason, rather than steam. every word that guy writes is chosen for a reason

[richard_ba]

I think the smoke steams are directly related to the Azor Ahai, which is a hero reborn amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone

[Apple Martini]

There are a few of smoke-and-salt options here:

1. Bowen's tears and Jon's "smoking" wound.
2. Them stashing his body down in the cellars with smoked and salted meats.
3. Tze's very "whoa" idea that the whole thing is a complete misinterpretation of a vision, and "smoke and salt" is really "mist and snow." (If you're seeing a prophetic vision of snow in Asshai, do you even know what snow is?)

I think I must have read that chapter a few dozen times since last year. Something in it is not right. I don't know if it's the letter, Jon's personality, the stabbing itself, or what.

You do pose a very interesting question, and one that I've thought of at times, too: Why didn't they just let him go?

If they wanted out from under his leadership, why not just let Jon go and hope Ramsay killed him, and then deal with Ramsay's demands later? The men who volunteered to go with Jon were wildlings, so it's not like any other Night's Watch guys were going out there. Seems win-win to me, from Bowen's perspective: Send the LC out on what might be a suicide mission, along with a bunch of wildling fighters who could oppose your authority if they stayed. Soon as he's gone, stage a coup, declare him a deserter, and get on with life. If Jon comes back, execute him for desertion after the fact (they're really punishing him for a crime he hasn't committed yet). If he doesn't, so much the better. But "punishing" him before he's actually even done anything, in a room full of his supporters, putting themselves in very real danger of immediate reprisal with extreme prejudice ... something's rotten in the shieldhall.

As someone ... Dr. Pepper, maybe? ... pointed out a couple of weeks ago, the shieldhall is Jon's "in the belly of the whale" scene. The hall, with its beams, even resembles a stomach and a ribcage. We've even been given the literal phrase "belly of the whale" earlier; it's the name of the place Davos visits in his first chapter. We are meant to have this in our minds. This is basically when Jon goes to the "underworld" (in the thematic sense) and returns stronger and with his boon. The question is, what is the boon and how was this whole thing orchestrated.

Edited by Apple Martini, 16 July 2012 - 10:26 PM.

[SerMixalot]

someone should look to the arya chapter where they discuss all of the various poisons, perhaps there is aclue there

[Rhaegar Targaryen's Ghost]

Apple Martini, on 16 July 2012 - 10:23 PM, said:

I think I must have read that chapter a few dozen times since last year. Something in it is not right. I don't know if it's the letter, Jon's personality, the stabbing itself, or what.

I agree with you, because the whole part leading up to here was just, "not Jon" if he didn't run away to join Robb and rescue his father from the lannisters in GoT, why leave now. it was a rash decision, we didnt have his thoughts, seeing if he struggled with the decision or anything. and the letter gets me too. i still cant quite wrap my head around it.

[E-Ro]

Jon Flowers, on 16 July 2012 - 09:30 PM, said:

Blood is 98.6 degrees F on average, therefore it steams or "smokes" in the cold just like your breath will.

While this is true smoked is an odd choice of words.

[E-Ro]

Let me just say I was so happy when I read this chapter for the first time, Iwas like yea jon, go kick some ass!!!!! Then he got stabbed

[Dr. Pepper]

romantic, on 16 July 2012 - 09:13 PM, said:

What if (crackpot theory alert) the whole 'attack' was a mummery because they (Bowen Marsh and co. and Mel) didn't want Jon to leave the Wall. They only left the meeting after Jon said he was sending the NW to Hardhome while he was going to Winterfell. Mel could have sent Ser Patreck after Wun Wun and provided Marsh and Co. with equipment (she may have foreseen Jon's leaving and prepared beforehand). Obviously the NW faction wouldn't want any more NW sent away (especially to help wildlings) but if they had let Jon leave, after forsaking his vows, they would be rid of him and he'd be a deserter with a death sentence on his head. They could then recall the NW from the Hardhome expedition. Wouldn't that be the easiest/safest option for them?

I have never considered it from this angle before.  I only considered the idea that Bowen and co. wanted Jon gone because they didn't like his changes, which is sort of ridiculous when I think about it now as they are surrounded by 1000's of wildlings and one giant who have proven to only trust Jon.  Your theory isn't crackpot at all, it makes so much more sense!  And it makes total sense that if they simply wanted Jon gone, it would have been easier to let him go with as many wildlings as he could take and declare him a deserter.

[ed01boyl]

First post so here it goes,

I personally believe the attack was genuine, I really like the Julius Caesar reference someone mentioned earlier.
As far as I see those who didn't want Jon in power gain nothing by just letting him leave for several reasons

1) They can't just hope Ramsey kills him. That's putting a lot of eggs in one basket. Also the saying if you want to get something done you have to do it yourself.

2) Jon wants to leave with an army of wildlings who many of the NW still probably see as the enemy since they've been preventing the wildlings from going south for years. I can see how members of the NW would not like just letting an army of wildlings go south being led by Jon who spent an extended period of time with them

3) If Jon is victorious against Ramsey and returns he will more than likely return with some of what he went south with. When Jon got back to castle black I don't think he'd just let those who call him a deserter for leaving just hack his head off. Jon would probably still have more men then the remaining NW there also. On top of all that if they tried to fight Jon to prevent him from returning that would also probably fail since it's been mentioned that the castles on the wall have no defenses facing the south.

To me it seems the attackers picked the perfect time to strike. There was mass confusion leaving Jon more vulnerable then any other chance they might get.

[Jolene Brown]

The justification Ned gives for killing a deserter in A Game of Throne is that once someone deserts they know they are a marked man so they are capable of anything.  "In truth, the man was an oathbreaker, a deserter from the Night's Watch.  No man is more dangerous.  The deserter knows his life is forfeit if he is taken, so he will not flinch from any crime, no matter how vile."  They could feel that way about Jon.  Once he has deserted, leading an army, who knows what he might do with it?

[Apple Martini]

Jolene Brown, on 16 July 2012 - 11:33 PM, said:

Once he has deserted, leading an army, who knows what he might do with it?

Then you have to ask, do they reasonably think he could defeat Ramsay? Because that's really the only way he's going to be running loose on the North with a wildling army.

[Rhaegar Targaryen's Ghost]

ed01boyl, on 16 July 2012 - 11:24 PM, said:

First post so here it goes,

I personally believe the attack was genuine, I really like the Julius Caesar reference someone mentioned earlier.
As far as I see those who didn't want Jon in power gain nothing by just letting him leave for several reasons

1) They can't just hope Ramsey kills him. That's putting a lot of eggs in one basket. Also the saying if you want to get something done you have to do it yourself.

2) Jon wants to leave with an army of wildlings who many of the NW still probably see as the enemy since they've been preventing the wildlings from going south for years. I can see how members of the NW would not like just letting an army of wildlings go south being led by Jon who spent an extended period of time with them

3) If Jon is victorious against Ramsey and returns he will more than likely return with some of what he went south with. When Jon got back to castle black I don't think he'd just let those who call him a deserter for leaving just hack his head off. Jon would probably still have more men then the remaining NW there also. On top of all that if they tried to fight Jon to prevent him from returning that would also probably fail since it's been mentioned that the castles on the wall have no defenses facing the south.

To me it seems the attackers picked the perfect time to strike. There was mass confusion leaving Jon more vulnerable then any other chance they might get.

welcome to the forum. i really agree with your 3rd point. a leaderless group of wildlings, while still dangerous, is not as dangerous as a Jon snow army of wildlings.