287 replies to this topic

[ab aeterno]

mindcrash, on 13 September 2012 - 02:24 PM, said:

I think this whole thing has become too convoluted.  

Ramsay wrote the letter.  Whether he's writing it under false knowledge, that's what remains to be seen.  

Personally, I think he is.  I think he has Mance, I think he killed the spearwives, and I think he has Lightbringer.  I don't think Stannis is dead or defeated.  In fact, my money is on him pulling a reverse-Bolton (you know, the plan Arya enabled in Harrenhall).  Perhaps the Manderly's (and Manderly's dressed as Freys) brought in prisoners from the "battle". This would get a goodly amount of men inside WF ready to be set free to take the castle from the inside out and open a gate for the rest of Stannis' forces.

Makes a lot more sense to me than these other crackpot theories.

Assuming that were true, don't you think Ramsay would have a little too much fighting on his hands with Stannis and Manderly's men inside WF to be writing a demanding letter to Jon? Unless Stannis intends to just chill in WF for a while before taking the castle.

Edited by DCS1122, 13 September 2012 - 02:37 PM.

[Budj]

IF that is it then the Manderly forces take Stannis' sword back to WF and pretend they killed him so they can perform some sort of sneak attack.  Just as speculative and would require all of the Frey forces to be dead.

[Budj]

And the Umbers build a ditch outside of WF to fuck up the Frey's marching out (to break one's neck?) and blow a horn just as Theon is trying to escape with Jeyne? Way too coincidental imo.

[Mayura]

Reading the preview chapter, I think maybe Ramsay wrote the letter to Jon. And Stannis's knowledge and language can be explained if he received some news from Bolton (i.e. Ramsay asking for his Reek). I know Bolton technically doesn't know where Stannis is, so he might not be reacheable by raven, however Ramsay might have been communicating with Karstark and he learned Stannis's position.

Maybe it's about the letter with the black wax seal Theon notices. Theon even notes he knows what that is. So I assumed it came from Bolton as well.

By the way, is it possible the colour of the was seal means something specific? Pink for the letter sent to Jon, black for Stannis?

Edited for grammar (sorry, french speaker here)

Edited by Mayura, 13 September 2012 - 04:39 PM.

[ab aeterno]

Also, it would rely on Roose/Ramsay trusting all the Manderly men who just happened to return without any of the men that all the notherners hate but who are on Roose's side, and with Stannis' sword but not his body.

[Jon Reborn]

Hmmm, I was thinking no way it was Mance, he wouldn't do that.

But, I can wrap my head around it more if Mance wrote it in collusion with Jon, to provide justification for Jon heading south with an army of wildlings.

If this was the case, I guess it didn't work out how they planned...

[starvinmarvin]

I don't know if this has been stated already. I read through the last three pages of his fairly quickly so someone please berate me if I have repeated something.

I think that this letter fits squarely into Stannis' character up to this point. We know that Stannis' willpower/desire is iron. He also is one of the most able battle commanders alive at the end of the 5th book. Presently, Stannis desire to sit on the Iron Throne is the backbone behind every move he makes. Therefore, every act he commits takes him one step closer to achieving his goal, regardless if that act somehow conflicts with the other aspects of Stannis' character (sense of honor and justice etc.). As a result of his iron being the primary device dictating his actions, we see him devise plans that otherwise conflict with his other personality traits. An example of this is Stannis' use of Melsandre (sp?) magic as a way around difficult or near impossible military situations. Specifically, I am referring to his decision to use Mel and her shadow baby to take control of Storm's End and bind Renly's forces to his control prior to his defeat on the Blackwater. This course of action, while certainly not the most honorable or just one, fits into the belief that Stannis' will and desire is the primary motivating factor in his decision making. It also happened to be a brilliant military move in that he was able to acquire near 100,000 men without a large amount of bloodshed. Taking this example into account, lets review some reasoning as to writing the Pink letter fits into Stannis' character. Again he is stuck in a relatively dire military situation. Stannis being in the poor situation he is in, again feels the conflict between his willpower/desire and his honor/sense of justice. As in the case of Storm's End/Renly, Stannis' willpower/desire proved to be the primary motivator of his actions leading him to devise an unorthodox method to solve his plight and move one step closer to his ultimate goal.  Subsequently, Stannis' authorship of the pink letter fits his character because he allowed his desire to sit on the Iron Throne as his primary motivator and he used his considerable military IQ and authored the letter for the reasons so eloquently outlined in the OP and through this topic.

[Zoso6]

I think Mance wrote the letter to Jon

Edited by Zoso6, 18 September 2012 - 08:48 PM.

[ab aeterno]

starvinmarvin, on 18 September 2012 - 08:40 PM, said:

I don't know if this has been stated already. I read through the last three pages of his fairly quickly so someone please berate me if I have repeated something.

I think that this letter fits squarely into Stannis' character up to this point. We know that Stannis' willpower/desire is iron. He also is one of the most able battle commanders alive at the end of the 5th book. Presently, Stannis desire to sit on the Iron Throne is the backbone behind every move he makes. Therefore, every act he commits takes him one step closer to achieving his goal, regardless if that act somehow conflicts with the other aspects of Stannis' character (sense of honor and justice etc.). As a result of his iron being the primary device dictating his actions, we see him devise plans that otherwise conflict with his other personality traits. An example of this is Stannis' use of Melsandre (sp?) magic as a way around difficult or near impossible military situations. Specifically, I am referring to his decision to use Mel and her shadow baby to take control of Storm's End and bind Renly's forces to his control prior to his defeat on the Blackwater. This course of action, while certainly not the most honorable or just one, fits into the belief that Stannis' will and desire is the primary motivating factor in his decision making. It also happened to be a brilliant military move in that he was able to acquire near 100,000 men without a large amount of bloodshed. Taking this example into account, lets review some reasoning as to writing the Pink letter fits into Stannis' character. Again he is stuck in a relatively dire military situation. Stannis being in the poor situation he is in, again feels the conflict between his willpower/desire and his honor/sense of justice. As in the case of Storm's End/Renly, Stannis' willpower/desire proved to be the primary motivator of his actions leading him to devise an unorthodox method to solve his plight and move one step closer to his ultimate goal.  Subsequently, Stannis' authorship of the pink letter fits his character because he allowed his desire to sit on the Iron Throne as his primary motivator and he used his considerable military IQ and authored the letter for the reasons so eloquently outlined in the OP and through this topic.

It has come up, but not for a while, so it's useful to bring up Stannis again. I thought Stannis was a more likely candidate earlier on, but over time the arguments on the thread have convinced me that he is somewhat less likely. For what it's worth, my money is on Mance or Ramsay atm with Stannis just behind them. It's been a long thread, so don't worry about having brought up points that have been discussed before- if we didn't the threads would die pretty quickly!

[Carey Snow]

The most likely scenario, in my humble opinion, is that Ramsay wrote the letter under the false impression that Stannis is dead and his army defeated.

We know that Roose sends the Freys out the Main gate and the Manderlys out a side gate to attack Stannis. We know that the Freys probably fell into the traps set by the clansmen outside the main gate and if not decimated, certainly weakened. We know that Manderly has sent Davos in search of Rickon and has zero loyalty to the Boltons.

It seems very likely to me that Stannis and Manderly team to defeat the Freys and agree to an alliance that places Rickon as Warden of the North and Lord of Winterfell. In return, Manderly's host returns to Winterfell with the story of Stannis' defeat to the Boltons. Ramsay then sends the letter to Jon. The Manderly's are able to open the gates at a later time to allow Stannis into the castle and finish off the Boltons and Freys. This would require that  Lord Manderly gave his captain orders to parly with Stannis and the knowledge of Davos and Rickon bacuase he is not personally with the host as his throat was partially cut open by a Frey. Perhaps he gave his captain yet another letter to give to Stannis in hopes that the Boltons would give them an opportunity to parly with him.

Stannis may find it beneficial to keep up the ruse of his defeat to keep the Lannisters and the Iron throne uninterested in the North, which they think is firmly under their control through the Boltons. Thus his cryptic instructions to Massey.

Edited by Carey Snow, 19 September 2012 - 08:48 PM.

[ab aeterno]

Carey Snow, on 19 September 2012 - 08:25 PM, said:

The most likely scenario, in my humble opinion, is that Ramsay wrote the letter under the false impression that Stannis is dead and his army defeated.

I think that this has been the general consensus on the threads. As I mentioned before though, there have beeb some really compelling arguments for Mance, and I perseonally would love for it not to be Ramsay, even under false impressions. I just think it would introduce a totally different dynamic in the north which would be fascinating to see play out. As I said though, there are some strong arguments for Mance anyway.

[Pulak Kumar]

I'm still very much convinced it was Ramsay who wrote this. After capturing and torturing Mance, he must probably be wondering if his beloved bride and Reek probably managed to make it over to the Wall after all, and what better way to do that than to lie and say "Your boss is dead, I'm coming for you". Either he expected Jon to cowardly turn them over or ride and risk getting caught and....questioned. Stannis is neither cruel or conniving in the traditional sense. He only used the shadows to kill enemies he was convinced were guilty of treason, and he seemed strangely out-of-touch with the murder of his own brother Renly too. Also, the amount of shocking plot twists have declined considerably since AffC, so I doubt George will be pulling a fast one on us in his future books.

[Budj]

Why would Ramsay write a letter to Jon if he thought "Arya" was at the wall when he knows that they both know that that is not the real Arya?  If Arya made it to the wall the Bolton's would be massacred in their keep by the remaining Northern forces because Ned's daughter is the only reason they are loyal at the moment.

Mance wrote this letter - I think to trick Jon into WF.  The North wants to make him a leader in the North because they need a Stark (even a bastard) to rally behind.  Yes - Rickon is currently heir, but no one will rally to a 5 year old and no one all-around respectable enough in the hiearchy of the North is available (besides Jon - who up to ADWD is also unavailable...) to be his Reagant.  What's Mance's motivation?  Ensuring his people do not get sent back beyond the wall.  He knows Jon is a sympathizer - regardless of his prior double agent status - and would secure their place south of the wall.  Many of the wildlings would probably even fight for him which, imo, is one of the best ways to unite the cultures quickly.  The North and the Wildlings are already similar in a lot of ways anyways...

Jon would not go South unless he was backed into a corner and that letter put him in a corner...an indefensible from the south corner...interestingly enough that is the tactic Mance wanted to use to get beyond the wall with Jon's raiding party in book 3.  If Arya had made it to the wall ravens would have been sent out all over informing everyone that Arya was not really Arya.

Of course this all assumes we are reading into the Northern Conspiracy.  Leading me to my next points from twow theon chapter.

Spoiler

Why were the guerilla Umber forces digging a ditch right outside of the gates when Theon was fleeing with Arya?  And how in the hell did Theon just happen to run into them and be taken back to Stannis?  That is way too coincidental.  It's almost like someone tipped off when it was going to go down and figured they would need to buy some time from the forces that would be sent after them and someone else would be need to be there to pick them up.  Stannis is definitely out of the loop, Manderly MAY be in the loop, but likely is out of it - I don't think anyone besides Davos and White Harbor are aware of the Rickon plan - and that leaves....Lady Dustin?  No...Abel the bard and his saucy washerwomen...aka spearwives...

Not written in stone, but I think there is pretty good motivation for it.  My guess is Mance is now hiding in the crypts similar to Bael the Bard...why no one ever thinks to scour those out looking for people in all of these books I'm not sure...haha.

[fassreiter]

Budj, on 20 September 2012 - 09:49 AM, said:

Why would Ramsay write a letter to Jon if he thought "Arya" was at the wall when he knows that they both know that that is not the real Arya?  If Arya made it to the wall the Bolton's would be massacred in their keep by the remaining Northern forces because Ned's daughter is the only reason they are loyal at the moment.

I really don't understand this argument, but I see it everywhere. Ramsay had a spearwife in his room, one is lying dead or dying in the snow. Both of them knew 'Arya' was to be brought to the Wall. So Ramay probably knows where Arya is headed. He probably tried to get her back, but it didn't work, maybe because there were those traps outside. Now she is gone, so he must assume she will reach the Wall. This is the situation he is in, there is no speculation here. Ramsay knows Arya is gone, and he almost surely knows she is heading for the Wall.

So regardless of who the author of the letter is - Ramsay wouldn't change anything if he didn't write this letter. He knows that Jon would recognize his sister in any case. How could the letter make anything worse than it already is? The letter, however, might just help to stop Jon from announcing the fake Arya to the whole realm - because Ramsay knows one of Jon's secrets. And Jon might be more willing to give him back fake Arya in return for being left alone at his Wall.

Quote

I'm still very much convinced it was Ramsay who wrote this. After capturing and torturing Mance, he must probably be wondering if his beloved bride and Reek probably managed to make it over to the Wall after all, and what better way to do that than to lie and say "Your boss is dead, I'm coming for you".

I agree, except for the part about Mance. GRRM wouldn't do that. Probably

[Carey Snow]

Budj, on 20 September 2012 - 09:49 AM, said:

Why would Ramsay write a letter to Jon if he thought "Arya" was at the wall when he knows that they both know that that is not the real Arya?  If Arya made it to the wall the Bolton's would be massacred in their keep by the remaining Northern forces because Ned's daughter is the only reason they are loyal at the moment.

Do we know for sure that Ramsay knows that he married a fake Arya? It is reasonable to assume that Roose may know, but the Bastard of the Dreadfort would have little reason to know the real Arya of Winterfell. Also, Roose may think it is better if his bastard just thinks it is the real Arya rather than letting the fool know, and let the truth slip out, in his wicked arrogance. I need to reread the chapter where Ramsay finds out he is to marry Arya.

[The Great Unwashed]

I've still maintained my belief that the letter was written by Ramsey, but I did a close reading of ADWD recently of all of Ramsey's dialogue in the novel and noticed something very interesting.

Ramsey never uses the word "bastard" throughout the entire novel.  In fact, he hates the word.  When Roose calls Ramsey a bastard to his face, Ramsey gets so angry that Theon thinks he will draw his knife and attack his father.  That's how much he hates the word.

But he uses it five times in the pink letter.  Now, I still think he wrote the letter, but I don't think he actually has Mance.  All he needed was one of the washerwomen captured and he could elicit the same information from her.  Also, he provides absolutely no proof of anything he says in the letter.  No "pieces of prince", as it were.

I think Ramsey wrote the letter because he's desperate.  His only claim to legitimacy that would bind the North to the Boltons just walked away into the snow and disappeared.  We all know Ramsey isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer, so maybe he's trying to provoke Jon because he thinks another bastard will react the same way he does to being called one.

And I'd just like to reiterate, for the record, that Jon is an idiot for automatically believing everything in the letter.

[MtnLion]

The Great Unwashed, on 20 September 2012 - 06:25 PM, said:

And I'd just like to reiterate, for the record, that Jon is an idiot for automatically believing everything in the letter.

If Jon had believed everything in the letter, many would agree, but the first thing we learn about the letter (other than how it is addressed) is that Jon thinks some is true and some is not true.  He is spending some time with Tormund determining what is what, and how he should proceed.

I do agree that Ramsay is very unlikely to use the word "bastard", though he does apply that to his horse when he returns from "hunting".  I think that someone wrote the letter for him, or forged the letter to meet his own ends, which are not good ones for Jon.

[Jon Reborn]

I think my opinion of who wrote the letter has changed again.

To an option that I have seen mentioned somewhere, but has not been dicussed that much - Roose Bolton.

Roose is cold and calculating. He knows whats going on and that he is barely holding on to Winterfell and the North at this point. They have lost "Arya", who was very important to the Bolton's claim to Winterfell, and by association, the North. With all of the male Stark children "dead", who is the biggest threat to the Bolton claim to Winterfell?

Jon Snow. Especially if he leaves the Watch after being legitimized by his false king or the late King of the North.

Being the Lannister backed Warden of the North ensures that Bowen Marsh and his cronies want to please him. He has likely had communication with the Wall via the NW deadenders.

Roose sees all of this and knows what has been happenning at the Wall. He has a natural interest in keeping tabs on the last living son of Ned Stark. He has seen first hand how useful ravens and letters can be in winning a war - see the Red Wedding. Especially if the person you are trying to fool/get rid of/control is quite honourable and not well versed in the ways of deceit.

Also, where Theon and "Arya" likely to head? Probably to "Arya's" last living brother at the Wall. If she reaches the Wall and Jon is still in charge, the Bolton's are out of luck. Plus Jon would see that she is not the real Arya and then the world would know and the Bolton's claim to WInterfell and the North would take a serious hit.

If Roose can draw Jon out and make him act rashly, maybe someone friendly to the Lannisters and Boltons would end up in charge. They wouldn't know that Arya is fake and could send her back to the Boltons.

Roose knows Ramsay well enough to make the letter sound just like him. He is not bothered by the word "bastard". I think that the letter was carefully crafted for a specific purpose. It sounded like Ramsay having a freak out because that is what Roose wanted it to sound like.

Well, I'm sure I missed something I wanted to say, but there are my latest thoughts on the whole Pink Letter fiasco. Thoughts? Maybe someone can change my mind on this yet again...

[ab aeterno]

I've considered Roose. A fair few pages back I wrote a long-ish post detailing how it could be him despite his caution because he is desperate, trapped, "Arya" is on her way to the wall, Theon has escaped and he has sent Ramsay out. The letter could be a hail mary attempt to draw Jon away from the wall so that he doesn't meet up with "Arya" or to get rid of Jon, as he is the only person who could conclusively identify her as not being "Arya" other than Theon. Roose also benefits from getting rid of Ramsay, because Ramsay is a mad dog who is ruining all of Roose's plans.

Edited by DCS1122, 21 September 2012 - 01:09 PM.

[ab aeterno]

DCS1122, on 21 September 2012 - 01:07 PM, said:

I've considered Roose. A fair few pages back I wrote a long-ish post detailing how it could be him despite his caution because he is desperate, trapped, "Arya" is on her way to the wall, Theon has escaped and he has sent Ramsay out. The letter could be a hail mary attempt to draw Jon away from the wall so that he doesn't meet up with "Arya" or to get rid of Jon, as he is the only person who could conclusively identify her as not being "Arya" other than Theon. Roose also benefits from getting rid of Ramsay, because Ramsay is a mad dog who is ruining all of Roose's plans.

So basically I was thinking along the same lines as you. More recently I've started leaning heavily towards Mance however.

*Sorry for the double post, edit wouldn't work, for some reason.*