Jump to content

Would Robert have waged war on the North if he found out about Jon (assuming R+L=J)


The Snowman

Recommended Posts

Found a topic like this but its months old and didn't really take off so I thought I'd give it a crack.

While Jon was still an infant or young boy and Robert found out about Jon being Rhaegar's son, what would he do?

Would he call for the boy's head?

If this happened I assume Ned would have said Hell No.

Does it result in war, Robert's Targ hatred was only curbed by Ned on Bob's deathbed so I assume a 'dragonspawn' of his dearest Lyanna would send him over the edge.

I would say that Jon Arryn could/might be able to stop a conflict but if Ned barred Robert from coming to kill Jon then Robert would call his banners and his new pals the Lannisters would be happy to oblige.

Robert hated the Targs because of what happened to Lyanna.

It depends on how he found out, but I think all Ned Stark would have to do is remind him that Jon also is the only living remnant of Lyanna in the world. That, and knowing that to get to Jon he'd have to go through Ned Stark, would be enough to turn Robert from any thoughts of killing Jon.

However - that is Robert, Ned's best friend.

King Robert - the man who sits on the Iron Throne because he ended the Targaryen rule, and would need to decisively end their dynasty, that is another matter. One need all kings have is to destroy or negate their rivals (actual or potential ones). Even if Robert himself wanted to let Jon live, could he be persuaded that Jon is a threat (someone who would one day seek the crown or try to avenge his father Rhaegar)? There is a cold-blooded logic to royal succession and usurpations.

With Viserys and Dany, Robert had no reason to let them live, save the fact they were children. The Lannisters certainly knew this when they killed Rhaenys and Aegon - they ingratiated themselves to Robert by helping secure his crown, and partially sate his desire for revenge. The Lannisters would have zero reason to keep Jon alive, and plenty of "what if adult Jon wants revenge for his half-siblings?" reasons to kill him.

Perhaps if Robert had know all about Jon before marrying Cersei, he may have rejected a Lannister marriage, knowing they would be the ones to press for Jon's death (either openly or trying it covertly). This is still just the memory of Lyanna acting as Robert's conscience, the hope Jon Snow is seen by Robert as Lyanna's child rather than Rhaegar's.

Eddard Stark was thus presented with all kinds of reasons to keep Jon's parentage secret. That Robert's loving memory for Lyanna would outweigh his hate for Rhaegar was not a sure thing. Worse still if it turned out the truth was that Lyanna ran off willingly, that she never loved Robert as he loved her. IF that was the case and was found out, then in Robert's mind, Jon would certainly be a Targ(et). That Jon Snow's existence would be taken by some as a threat to the new regime, that some besides Robert would seek to kill him anyway, well, that was a certainty. Eddard may have horribly misplayed "the game" but he knew enough about it to know it was a threat to Jon Snow's life.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pod, that's a great analysis. However I do think it underestimates what Robert the king would have to lose by insisting on Jon's death to the point of going to war over it. Robert's forces would be numerous enough to beat Ned's forces I don't doubt, and Robert would win that war. But by starting that war Robert would be sacrificing many of the gains from the previous war- without the threat of the unified alliance Robert's other enemies would not have had to stay on their knees. Robert (and his advisors if he is in a rage) would see the advantage of coming to a compromise. Even Tywin might see an advantage to this, as a living Jon would be an ongoing point of contention between Robert and Ned and would mean Ned not threatening Lannister influence over the king.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If Robert knew r+l=j then he would want Jon Snow killed. Ned would never give up the baby. Ned and the North would go to war to defend it

I believe this is the case. I'm not sure if anyone mentioned this quote from an early Ned chapter, but I think it offers some of the most compelling textual support for the theory:

He [Eddard] could still hear Sansa pleading, as Lyanna had pleaded once.

In context Sansa is pleading for Lady's life, and if you believe R+L=J it becomes clear that, at the tower of joy, Lyanna begged Ned to conceal Jon's Targaryean parentage and thus spare his life, otherwise Robert might have the child killed. In terms of the narrative, it's convenient that Howland Reed might have been privy to this discussion--he's still living, which will allow him to reveal this backstory in a later novel. (And why else have the Kingsguard guarding the tower, post Rhaegar's death at the Trident, unless there is a Targaryen heir there? Surely Robert's allies would do Lyanna no harm.)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but when Ned et al take the tower Elia and her children have already been killed, yes? So there is a real precedent for child murder and a true fear (despite the good relationship between houses Stark and Baratheon) that Jon might be killed at this point. Ned decides, since the child has more of the "North" in him (i.e. no Targaryen coloration to give him away) that he can pass Jon off as his bastard son. Lyanna dies, Ned goes to Starfall to return Dawn, Ashara Dane kills herself (at some point), and rumors about who the mother is fixate on Ashara. Ned lies to Robert (but not Catelyn, notably), creating a fictional peasant mother. Ned always resents Robert's hatred of the Targaryen clan, even going so far as to dissuade the assasination of Dany and her unborn child, because he knows Jon is Rhaegar and Lyanna's love child.

What doesn't make sense to me is that Ned conceals the identity of Jon's mother from Catelyn. In fact, the most obvious thing would be for him to tell her to resolve the conflict between them, and also the conflict between Jon and Catelyn. I can only guess that he was sworn to secrecy by Lyanna, and being a literal-minded (and prudent) man he stuck to his oath to safeguard Jon's life.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it largely depends who he found out from. I believe that if Ned told Robert about it and gave Robert his word that Jon would never discover his origins and that he would be fostered in the North and "encouraged" to take the Black, I believe that Robert would not risk going to war with the North, especially since it is safe to assume that the Baratheon forces were fairly depleted after the war.

However had he found out otherwise that Ned had kept this from him, then I think Robert would go into another fit of rage and go to war.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I believe this is the case. I'm not sure if anyone mentioned this quote from an early Ned chapter, but I think it offers some of the most compelling textual support for the theory:

In context Sansa is pleading for Lady's life, and if you believe R+L=J it becomes clear that, at the tower of joy, Lyanna begged Ned to conceal Jon's Targaryean parentage and thus spare his life, otherwise Robert might have the child killed.

Lyanna was dying, her child was about to become an orphan. That is reason enough to have fear for the child and beg her brother to care for him and insist on a promise.

It is perfectly possible that she genuinely did have a specific fear of Robert killing Jon and that is why she insisted on the promise. But it is not necessary for her to have had that fear for it to have made sense that she would insist on the promise. So the promise does not offer proof that Lyanna had that specific fear - still less that Robert really would the child killed.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but when Ned et al take the tower Elia and her children have already been killed, yes? So there is a real precedent for child murder and a true fear (despite the good relationship between houses Stark and Baratheon) that Jon might be killed at this point. Ned decides, since the child has more of the "North" in him (i.e. no Targaryen coloration to give him away) that he can pass Jon off as his bastard son. Lyanna dies, Ned goes to Starfall to return Dawn, Ashara Dane kills herself (at some point), and rumors about who the mother is fixate on Ashara. Ned lies to Robert (but not Catelyn, notably), creating a fictional peasant mother. Ned always resents Robert's hatred of the Targaryen clan, even going so far as to dissuade the assasination of Dany and her unborn child, because he knows Jon is Rhaegar and Lyanna's love child.

The children had been killed, yes. But not at Robert's orders. Robert in his rage refused to mourn the 'dragonspawn' but the row he and Ned had was whether it was murder or war. Robert had good reason beyond his hatred of Targaryens not to call it murder - Tywin Lannister used the deaths as a token of fealty, calling his actions murder would have would have lost the alliance the Lannisters at the very time they were trying to bind them closer (the eventual reason for the Robert-Cersei marriage).

And Ned didn't try to dissuade the assaination of Dany because of anything to do with Jon. He genuinely believed the killing of innocents to be wrong. But that is 15 years later, and Ned has already realized that the the king he serves now is not the man he knew then.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That is really complicated. Perhaps it's just wishful thinking, but I would like to think that since Robert claimed to have loved Lyanna, he wouldn't harm her child. But it would have to depend on the circumstances of Jon's conception. Was it rape as it was claimed? Was it consensual? If Jon was not a product of rape, I believe Robert would be hurt that Lyanna loved another and especially a Targaryen at that. He might start a war calling for the evidence of Lyanna's love to be removed, or he would hold some bitter feelings toward Jon, but perhaps he could form a bond with him because he came from the love of his life.

It could get so very complicated. :dunno:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It would be the Crownlands, Lannisters, and Stormlands on Robert's side, and that's it. John Arryn and Hoster Tully would not fight the Starks, and the Dorne and the Reach have no reason to want Jon dead or to help King Bob. The Iron Islands would conduct some reaving at the most.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What doesn't make sense to me is that Ned conceals the identity of Jon's mother from Catelyn. In fact, the most obvious thing would be for him to tell her to resolve the conflict between them, and also the conflict between Jon and Catelyn.

He didn't really know Catelyn. He married her for an alliance, got her pregnant then rode off to war. Maybe a few years later after he started to trust her, but it's awkward to find the right time!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the posters that have said war may have been out of the question for young King Bob are onto something there. I'm pretty certain that he would want Jon dead - if not at first, then at some point into his long reign surrounded by whisperers - but war would probably have been overkill. The country just had a civil war, and the Crownlands + Stormlands + Dragonstone saw the worst of the fighting, right? Robert would have been in a very weak position to try to invade the North just to kill lil' ol' Jon Snow, especially if Ned didn't make his (potential) royal identity known. Robert would look like just another tyrant, and he wouldn't have held the Iron Throne.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...
  • 3 months later...
  • 1 year later...

First of all Robert couldn't know the whole story so it really depends on what Ned would say in defense of Jon.I think if Ned told Robert that Jon was the product of rape but Lyanna told Ned that Jon was an innocent in this situation and wanted Ned to protect Jon, I think then FRobert might have let it go.


And about warring Ned I think Robert wouldn't go that far.First of all if he really wanted to kill every targeryan infant or not then there was nothing to stop him from killing Dany or Visery same goes for Aemon too.Robert was all talk in his rage.Only after he learnt about Dany being pregnant and posing a real threat with a real army did he decide to send someone after her.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...