Does Stannis know Mance is alive?

[the Houndini]

I dont quite understand if burning Rattleshirt was his idea. Or done behind his back?

Does he know that Mellisandre sent Mance to Winterfell?

[aryagonnakill]

We are told by Melissandre that Stannis doesn't know. Some people believe the spearwives/ Mance told Theon who he really was and that Theon could have told Stannis before he wrote the letter, others that bran somehow communicates it to Stannis before sending the letter. I believe these are just unlikely ways of making the theory that Stannis wrote the letter possible. My answer is no, he does not know, and we will be there when he finds out.

[Crown]

We are told by Melissandre that Stannis doesn't know. Some people believe the spearwives/ Mance told Theon who he really was and that Theon could have told Stannis before he wrote the letter, others that bran somehow communicates it to Stannis before sending the letter. I believe these are just unlikely ways of making the theory that Stannis wrote the letter possible. My answer is no, he does not know, and we will be there when he finds out.

I agree, Stannis doesn't know. He didn't write the letter, it's out of character.

[The Red Hand]

I know that Stannis has shown mercy throughout this series but Mance is a certified oathbreaker who tried to invade the 7 kingdoms. Mance has a head, therefore we can conclude that Stannis doesn't know hes alive.

[redriver]

Stannis doesn't know and he won't be a happy bunny when he finds out.

[Franz95]

Stannis doesn't know. When he finds out that even Mel does things behind his back his jaw will likely break.

[kephv]

Stannis knows. Remember Mel mentions something to Jon along the lines of Stannis isn't one to go against established law, but as Jon pointed out the law ends at the Wall. So basically Stannis gave in. And why wouldn't he know? He was sent to help him, after all.

[Lady Octarina]

I'm more inclined to believe he doesn't know, but there might be evidence that he does. Remember at one of the last Jon chapters in ASoS, I think, when Stannis asks him what he thinks of Mance, when he's interested in learning of Mance's character? I don't know, if he just meant to burn him like a criminal, a pretender, why bother learning about the man? That's very suspicious if you ask me, and Stannis has been known for taking the pragmatic course of action once in a while, so, who knows?

Not to mention we still don't know why Mance went to Winterfell when, as far as we know, he was supposed to find "Arya" somewhere near the King's Road.

[Sinslash]

I don't think Stannis wrote the letter. But it's possible Theon could have written the letter.

[nepaliman_7]

I don't think Stannis knows. Stannis believes in duty and justice above all else. He constantly syas that he doesn't want to be king, but it it his duty. He would kill a deserter because he knows those are the rules of the Night's Watch.

[The Sunset King]

It seems very doubtful that Stannis is aware of Mance's survival and what Melisandre did/is having Mance do. The execution that most thought was Mance's fits both with Stannis's own viewpoints and those of most of the Night's Watch leadership. However, he is likely to find out that Mance has survived at some point in TWOW. Will be interesting to see what he thinks happened and what the reaction will be. Many jaws will drop or clench.

[Fire Eater]

I don't think Stannis knows. Stannis believes in duty and justice above all else. He constantly syas that he doesn't want to be king, but it it his duty. He would kill a deserter because he knows those are the rules of the Night's Watch.

I agree completely. Besides, switching Mance with Rattleshirt wouldn't be the first time Mel did something behind Stannis's back just ask Renly.

[7V3N]

I think people misunderstand the theory. Stannis wrote a letter to Winterfell saying that the Freys/Manderys destroyed Stannis, and Ramsay then wrote a letter to Jon thinking Stannis is dead. Stannis discovering that the maester was sending Winterfell letters spying on him only helps this idea.

[bemused]

I'm sure Stannis knows.

There's the ASOS bit mentioned by Lady Octarina.. Then there's what we can observe of Stannis... Stannis respects the skills and gleans the knowledge of the men around him and uses them to his advantage... whether they're his men (Davos) , allies of necessity ( Jon ) , or captives ( Mance). Being Stannis , he's brusque about it ..doesn't say .. Thank you, thank you , I'm eternally grateful , now what can I do for you ... he just takes it all in, makes up his mind , and acts. ( But without revealing much of his own thoughts to them )... He does have a sense of indebtedness ... he says a King should pay his debts, when he dispatches "Arya" to Jon .. there's the various rewards he bestows on Davos .. he's just never warm and fuzzy about it. But he's not a man to waste his resources .

So .. he knows Mance's knowledge of the wildlings is an asset ( but any residual loyalty they may feel for Mance could work for or against Stannis , depending on the circumstances ) . Mance's knowledge of and experience of the Others outweighs Stannis' own , as well as Jon's , and might prove invaluable...At the end of ASOS, Stannis can't be sure whether Mance can be brought to co-operate or not, and we see him sounding out Jon on the topic.

In ADWD, Stannis has spoken with Mance ( presumably at length ). Jon points out how valuable Mance could be to Stannis ,and Stannis brushes him off. His mind is made up..but we don't really know his decision...It may not be that he thinks Jon is wrong, but what Jon is saying is just coals to Newcastle , to Stannis.

Stannis is faced with a conundrum..he doesn't want to openly flout the code of the NW ( although he threatens to )... And the newly elected LC has just refused Stannis' offer of Val and WF , in order to adhere to his NW oath.. Stannis hopes to bring the wildlings in , but they would have to accept abiding by laws if that's to work.

Mance is known to be a deserter from the NW. By the NW code ( not Stannis' own ), Mance must die. That's the penalty for desertion. Stannis doesn't mind letting the NW adhere to their rules up to the point they start to interfere with Stannis' own plans . E.g. ,If the NW doesn't have the forts manned by the time of his return , he will do it and their independence be damned.

If Stannis didn't know about Mel's methods before Renly , he has ever since , so I think he'd at least be wary and I don't think he'd be so easy to fool in that regard. ( Stannis would have private access to Mance and Rattleshirt more easily than Mel and be much more likely to gain their acquiescence to the old switcheroo than she would ,on her own. )

Mel and Mance don't ever tell Jon that Stannis doesn't know , they just elude the question.. Mance says Stannis killed the man he needed to kill , for all the world to see..( to mollify the NW, and remove a focal point for wildling opposition ?) ..I think it was all the world being fooled , not Stannis.

I've seen many people assume that Mance couldn't remove his ruby because Mel's magic prevented him. He simply says, every day he doesn't because if he did, Stannis would just kill him again... I don't think that's because Stannis wants it so much as because the NW would require it.

I see Mel's comment about Stannis not being a man to disregard the law in much the same light. It leads us ( and Jon ) into thinking Stannis doesn't know..but I don't think that will turn out to be the case...To me it implies that Stannis felt he had to be seen to uphold the NW's law.

ETA: I don't know if he knows Mel would be sending Mance to Winterfell. Maybe the Arya rescue plan gave them the opportunity they were looking for to get Mance away from the wall .. But I've long thought there's a very good chance that Stannis might know that Mance has been 'Abel" in the past ( from their discussions at the wall ) , and would therefore know Mance was in WF ,once he heard Theon and Jeyne's stories.

ETA ; If Stannis wrote the letter , the revelation about Mance might have been designed to inspire the wildlings to help oppose Ramsay.

[Aeron Piemaker]

Stannis probably does know.

According to the TWoW Theon I, Theon knows about Mance, so he probably told to Stannis before being executed (he probably wasn't in the end btw)

[bemused]

Theon probably mentioned Abel, but I don't think he knew that Abel = Mance , necessarily..That would have been a big risk for Mance to take , and really , he didn't need to reveal that to Theon to get his co-operation.

ETA: Further to Stannis not being one to waste his resources ( a big part of the reason he let Mel use shadow babies in the first place )..

Just as I don't think he'd waste the resource that is Mance merely to satisfy the NW's laws , if there was a way out of it.. I don't think he'd want to waste Theon, either. He plainly states ,in the Theon chapter , that Theon is more use to him alive ,at the moment. There's every chance he's not just trying to decide which is the better way to kill Theon, but whether he can avoid it entirely , at least until he can assess whether Theon could be any further use to him , after the coming battle .

[emcinto0]

Can someone refresh my memory as to why Mel made the switch?

[bemused]

Hi, and welcome, emcinto0

I don't think we're ever really told why Mel made the switch. I can't think of a logical reason why she would , on her own..except that she quotes Jon's own words to Stannis back to him..The law ends at the wall .. so it's possible, at that point, she accepted Jon's reasoning while Stannis did not. If anyone could change his mind , though, it would be Mel.. especially if she could show him a way to get around the law. When Mance is talking to her , she thinks, Was I wrong to spare this one ?..Of course , that could mean she acted on her own, or that her efforts convinced Stannis.. She says to Mance of Jon , We need his goodwill ( or words to that effect ).. just her and Mance ? ..or her and Mance and Stannis ?..it really is left ambiguous.

At that point, the one thing we can be sure of is that whatever her reason , she thinks it's for Stannis' benefit. She thinks the free folk are doomed but doesn't say that to Mance. So she's probably misled Mance into agreeing, has definitely misled Rattleshirt , but I don't know that she's still misleading Stannis. As their partnership has grown, they've grown more and more like collaborators.

But anyway I don't think it really matters , as to whether Stannis knows Mance is alive by the time we get to the Theon chapter. Stannis told Jon he spoke to Mance for hours. He says Mance is cunning... OK, we know that one of the things Mance tells Jon to prove his cunning , is how he had been slipping back and forth across the wall in his disguise as Abel ( I don't remember if he mentions the name to Jon, but he might have to Stannis anyway ) So I think when Theon tells how he and Jeyne were aided by Abel and the washerwomen ...Stannis would know.

then , anyway if not before.

[TheeMikeHoncho]

I don't think Stannis wrote the letter. But it's possible Theon could have written the letter.

How would theon write a letter without any fingers?

[aryagonnakill]

Can someone refresh my memory as to why Mel made the switch?

Mance has supposedly seen and fought the others. Jon and Mel and some speculate Stannis agreed that he was more valuable alive for his knowledge and ability to lead the wildlings. I do not believe Stannis knows.