Does anyone else think Myrcella is already dead?

[jarl the climber]

I'm not sure, actually.

But either way, whether it was planned or not, he can't have Cersei know that Myrcella is dead (if she is; again, I'm not sure about this, but I can see how she would be)

I agree. I don't thin Doran would noramly hurt a child, even a Lannister one but she is a hostage and if Cerseis plan for Trystane had reached his ears at this point he might have felt that having Darkstar mutilate her might be an appropiate response to this plot to kill his son. Hostage are not worth much if you won't harm them if the parents rebel, Dany has refused so far to harm her child hostages, Jon has not been tested so far. Doran might have done this because he felt it was his duty, having power is not all its cracked up to be.

I think Myrcella is alive but I'm not sure. If she is dead, I don't think Rosamund would replace her, maybe it would be a Faceless Man.

[Jem]

Sadly, yes, I do think that Myrcella may already be dead, and though I think Doran is responsible for covering it up, I don't think he is responsible for the initial attack. I think that there is a little blond girl called Rosamund waiting at the Water Gardens, with her hair in curls and her head heavily bandaged, maybe even veiled. I think Doran wants to hide Myrcella's death for as long as possible, which is understandable. I certainly don't think that Rosamund was actually harmed, though.

[the Scorpion Knight]

From ADWD Chapter 38

This makes me think that she is alive, or at least Obara thinks she is alive at this point.

I'm still having a hard time believing the Balon Swann would go along with something quite so awful as Doran thinks is being plotted (who told him? Varys?), but he did stay in King's Landing even though his brother was a Renly then a Stannis man.

Wouldn't be surprised if something happens to Myrcella on the way home, though.

I don't even think cersei or balon know of this plot

but I also think one of the troubles on the road (read the GC) might even save her live

[carmela28]

I don't think that Doran is a child-killer, either. Not intentionally, anyway.

I am confused about these events, also. I originally suspected that is was Rosamund that Darkstar mutilated, not Myrcella. Since we know that someone informed Doran of Arianne's plan to "crown" Myrcella, I assumed that he substituted Rosamund for Myrcella and sent Areo Hotah to deal with it. But that doesn't make sense because Arianne would certainly have known that the "princess" wasn't Myrcella

We don't know who ratted out Arianne? I suspect that it was Ser Aerys out of guilt.

I don't think that Darkstar is Doran's agent. Certainly Doran would hire someone more skilled.

[Fat Mac]

I truly doubt Doran would kill a child. His whole point, his whole existence, his whole moral beliefs are against that. He specifically wants revenge, but not against the children.

I do agree with you here. Unlike Oberyn's brood, Doran seems to target specifically those he wants revenge on, and them alone. However, he isn't a POV character so its still a mystery as to his true feelings.

[Victor227]

Doran definitely wasn't behind Darkstar's attack. That's almost a certainty. Myrcella is a ward under his protection, and he's the type to honor that sort of commitment and the protection it entails. He even sent off his own son to the Yronwoods to pay the debt for Oberyn's duel ages ago. He seems an honorable guy,

As for the talk of doubles. Honestly, when I look back I always figured the talk with Rosamund and describing how factors like age and knowledge make doubles more and more difficult acting as a sort of foreshadowing for Aegon's double-act during the sacking.

We had Areo's pov, and he's intimately involved in whatever Doran is up to, if anyone would know if Myrcella had been replaced, it would be him, yet he doesn't have a thought in his head about while Balon was there. As well, Mycella's tough to double for, especially when you consider Balon and her did have the opportunity to meet. It's a tough deception to pull off.

Still, anything is possible.

[pitakon]

she is dead like bran stark.

[Maxpey]

I think this is one instance where the events occurred just as they were described: Doran learned of Arianne's plan and sent Areo Hotah to intercept her. Dorkstar becomes enraged when the plan goes awry and tries to kill Myrcella. Doran then engages in a minor cover-up when Balon Swann appears to try and lessen Cersei's anticipated furor over what happened.

Is it possible that Myrcella was killed in the incident? As Apple Martini said, why not, given everything else that has occurred. If she was killed, I don't think Doran planned it. I can't see him doing something so ruthless to a child. From Areo Hotah's POV, we see that Doran loves children, probably more than anything else.

In addition, how would Dorne benefit from Doran murdering Myrcella?

[Martin Lasarte]

It's a good theory, but Doran asks Arianne to convince "Myrcella" to claim that Arys was killed by Darkstar and not by Areo. To do that, Arianne must meet "Myrcella" face to face, and if she's Rosamund, the princess would figure it out at once. Why not just tell her Myrcella died?

[Lord Damian]

It is not in the character of Doran Martell to purposely mutilate/murder a child. However, if a certain plot to assasinate one of his children was discovered, he might be tempted to turn the tables and have the puportrator's own child say, be "in the way" of and oncoming arrow or bolt as a form of poetic justice, especially if we are talking about Lannisters.

[Castellan]

I don't have an opinion but the whole 'double' thing has been hanging there - it could be a red herring or a major plot point or a minor one - I have been wondering if Myrcella and Rosamund (?) swapped roles from the outset so Myrcella arrived in Dorne as the companion - but logistics would mean Tyrion would have to have arranged it and I suppose that would risk Dornish wrath if discovered so ... that's why I always give up thinking about these issues and just wish he'd get the next book out.

[TalalOfDorne]

I really hope the Martells dont go as far as killing children. And besides

In Ariannes sample chapter of TWOW we dont really see her think about anything like that. And her death would be too significant to not think about

[Clariana]

I really hope the Martells dont go as far as killing children. And besides

In Ariannes sample chapter of TWOW we dont really see her think about anything like that. And her death would be too significant to not think about

Yeah but...

Isn't Arianne's sample chapter Arianne 2? Arianne 1 might have addressed it.

[TalalOfDorne]

Yeah but...

Isn't Arianne's sample chapter Arianne 2? Arianne 1 might have addressed it.

Good point.

[Lady of Dragonstone]

I do agree with you here. Unlike Oberyn's brood, Doran seems to target specifically those he wants revenge on, and them alone. However, he isn't a POV character so its still a mystery as to his true feelings.

Yeah but...

Isn't Arianne's sample chapter Arianne 2? Arianne 1 might have addressed it.

Agreeing to all.

Doran isn't a POV chapter, but we've had a very specific characterization of him painted. Oftimes with GRRM, the person's true character is the exact opposite, but in this case I think he is every bit the cautious, thoughtful player that we think him to be. I don't think he would harm Myrcella, nor do I think he needs to - he has people inside the Red Keep who could do some serious damage -- after all, Oberyn poisoned Tywin and tried to defend the Imp. If Doran did slay Myrcella, that would bring down the IT against him and I don't think he's quite prepared for that yet. As we saw in the gift chapter, there's still a huge shroud of mystery and secrecy needed regarding Arianne's job.

If Doran had done something so risky to provoke the IT, I think the gift chapters would have had a different tone.

[TalalOfDorne]

Bump...

[Father of Hosts]

I can't get over Balon not recognizing the difference between Myrcella and Rosamund. Sure, if it was some other high born lord's daughter, he might not and the switcheroo could be possilbe.

Myrcella is the princess, you had probably better know what she looks like if you're at court, so you can mind your P's and Q's. Dropping an F bomb in front of her is likely to end with some serious humiliation by Cersei, if not worse.

Legitimate question. Would Myrcella being dead conflict with Maggy the Frog's prophecy? Or does it flow with it?

[The guy from the Vale]

I can't get over Balon not recognizing the difference between Myrcella and Rosamund. Sure, if it was some other high born lord's daughter, he might not and the switcheroo could be possilbe.

Myrcella is the princess, you had probably better know what she looks like if you're at court, so you can mind your P's and Q's. Dropping an F bomb in front of her is likely to end with some serious humiliation by Cersei, if not worse.

Legitimate question. Would Myrcella being dead conflict with Maggy the Frog's prophecy? Or does it flow with it?

Problem with this is, Balon wasn't KG until after Myrcella was shipped to Dorne...

ETA: Myrcella dies according to the prophecy.

[Father of Hosts]

Problem with this is, Balon wasn't KG until after Myrcella was shipped to Dorne...

ETA: Myrcella dies according to the prophecy.

Right, but he is at court for several months before and in the party that saw Myrcella off.

Surely, one of your first priorities at court would be identifying the royal family and making sure you know what they look like so you don't slip up in front of them?

Balon is also described as a cautious and uneasy around the Dornish. He's expecting betrayal, he's on the look out for it. I just have a hard time beleiving they are pulling one over on him. Not to mention, all it takes is a little bit of suspicison on his part, start questioning "Myrcella", and the gig could be up.

The plan seems like a huge amount of risk with no upside for a man as cautious and calculating as Doran.

[The guy from the Vale]

Right, but he is at court for several months before and in the party that saw Myrcella off.

Surely, one of your first priorities at court would be identifying the royal family and making sure you know what they look like so you don't slip up in front of them?

Balon is also described as a cautious and uneasy around the Dornish. He's expecting betrayal, he's on the look out for it. I just have a hard time beleiving they are pulling one over on him. Not to mention, all it takes is a little bit of suspicison on his part, start questioning "Myrcella", and the gig could be up.

The plan seems like a huge amount of risk with no upside for a man as cautious and calculating as Doran.

Well, Balon hasn't seen Myrcella for quite some time, and while he might be able to recognize her usually, the girl has been wounded, which makes such things harder. He also doesn't know her well enough to search for birthmarks, or know her mannerisms or preferences.

I will only accept this "Myrcella" to be real beyond any doubt once we see her playing cyvasse (with fAegon, perhaps?), because that's the one thing we know differentiates her from her double.

If Myrcella died by Darkstar's hands without any prompting from Doran, the latter might have had no choice but to use her double... it would be the cautious choice at that point, because it gives him at least a chance to keep the entire affair under the rug (via the "Halfman" ruse) instead of flat out having to admit that Myrcella died under his watch, which would mean immediate war.