Does anyone else think Myrcella is already dead?

[Father of Hosts]

Well, Balon hasn't seen Myrcella for quite some time, and while he might be able to recognize her usually, the girl has been wounded, which makes such things harder. He also doesn't know her well enough to search for birthmarks, or know her mannerisms or preferences.

I will only accept this "Myrcella" to be real beyond any doubt once we see her playing cyvasse (with fAegon, perhaps?), because that's the one thing we know differentiates her from her double.

If Myrcella died by Darkstar's hands without any prompting from Doran, the latter might have had no choice but to use her double... it would be the cautious choice at that point, because it gives him at least a chance to keep the entire affair under the rug (via the "Halfman" ruse) instead of flat out having to admit that Myrcella died under his watch, which would mean immediate war.

Good points. I think you're right about not having enough information to call it one way or the other. I like the idea of cyvasse being the hint.

Definitely one of the better theories lately.

[Mithras]

I think Doran is smart enough to realize that Myrcella is the rightful queen by the Dornish Law. She is much better alive than dead for him. In fact Oberyn was quite sure that Doran will crown Myrcella. He was planning to take Tyrion with him to Dorne after the trial. He even thought Tyrion is hiding Sansa and requested him to bring her to Dorne too. Now you can say Dornish Law does not apply in KL but it applies in Dorne, and do you think Lannister/Tyrell alliance has the power to enforce their own law in Dorne?

[Lady Arya's Song]

I am not sure if there has been a switch..but oh the irony for Cersei

Constantly having heads brought before her from people trying to kill the Imp and not one of them being her brother Tyrion's head.

Sitting in the throne room waiting for the Dornish delagation and her beloved daughter and the unmasking to discover that its not her daughter's beloved head or person head but a cousin.

Would GRRM do such a thing? LOL

[Little Balerion]

But doesn't Arianne ask Doran whether Myrcella is dead, and he says 'No'.

Arianne was almost afraid to ask. “Myrcella. Is she... ?”

“... dead? No, though Darkstar did his best.

[Ed Mike]

I nurture the same suspicion.

About Doran being too fond of kids to hurt one, well, if you are going for a double wraped in linens, you wouldn't really need to mutilate her, would you?

A little make up, convinving the girl to travel in a closed transport, take her out of your lands and some "bandits" may "kidnap" her and the poor girl would desapear from the records as a mistery.

About Balon, it was clearly said that he came from the Stormlands and wasn't one to be close to the princes before joining the guard. Why would such a proud and arrogant queen like Cersei let her daughter mingle with younger sons of lesser lords? Myrcella was always described as a little lonely. Also, it is implied through the books that adults play no mind about children, even royal ones. Manderly, despite all his other smart moves, seems to believe in the fake Arya and he was certainly higher and frequent a guest in Winterfell than Balon in the royal quarters.

Also, my favorite part on that is that being buried under the golden sands of the desert would do perfectly within the prophecy of Meg about Cersei's children:

"golden their hair and golden their shrouds".

But doesn't Arianne ask Doran whether Myrcella is dead, and he says 'No'.

As for that, I'm not sure if I would trust such a secret to a daughter that proved to be naive enough to try conquering the whole Seven Kingdoms with the Fellowship of The Ring.

I would rather say that he used his daughter as a test. Send her to the double and see if she can be tricked with all the time she spent with the original. If she falls for it, the people coming after her will be easy pray.

[MasterJack]

As for that, I'm not sure if I would trust such a secret to a daughter that proved to be naive enough to try conquering the whole Seven Kingdoms with the Fellowship of The Ring.

Ahaha you almost killed me there, but so true. :bowdown:

[Martin Lasarte]

I've grown to like this theory. Maybe Darkstar poisoned his sword, just like Oberyn, and Myrcella died after several days, or even weeks, of agony. Balon Swann wouldn't be able to recognize her, if they just show him Rosamund with half her face wrapped in bandages. Yes, they lived together in court, but he was just one of many, many knights who hang around in the Red Keep, I doubt they ever spoke to each other. Had Balon been apointed to the Kingsguard before she left for Dorne, it would be different, since the Kingsguards are constantly near the royal family, but he only joined after the Battle of the Blackwater.

Doran's plan must be that Balon dies fighting Darkstar (most likely killed by Obara or Areoh) before he can force the Martells to send "Myrcella" back to King's Landing. Then he could use some pretence to keep her in Dorne.

[JLE]

Myrcella can't die because she hasn't sat on the throne yet. All three of Cersei's kids will wear crowns, and so far only two of them have. Tommen's doomed, then Cersei will have to crown Myrcella - which is ironic since Myrcella was so nearly crowned as a plot *against* Cersei...

[Good Guy Garlan]

Oh, this is very likely

In the WoW chapter

Daemon Sand says Oberyn was always wary of Darkstar and thought he was poison

Darkstar's sword could have been poisoned, which would explain why he only needed a little cut to get the job done.

The Sand Snakes (especially Tyene) seem to know their poisons, but I don't think they'd lift a finger to save Tywin Lannister's grand-daughter

Also, Arianne already gave Doran the idea to cover things up: using Rosamund, maybe with a bandage and some healing lotion or something, and Balon wouldn't be the wiser

I also don't think Doran did it or wanted it. He's clearly trying to stall Balon to buy some time while he waits for the Targs. No, this had Varys fingers all over it, since Team Aegon benefits the most from Myrcella's death

In addition. if Tommen dies before Myrcella she becomes queen, and I don't see Martin going through with a plot to crown her again, as it would be too repetitive.

Granted, a hole in this theory could be Doran telling Arianne to persuade Myrcella to lie to Balon. But who knows, maybe the poison was just beginning to kick in and that's why Doran

sent Arianne away as well to meet Aegon, but also to keep her from finding out Myrcella's dying

[Not Dead Just Broken]

I think the "gold will be their crowns and gold their shrouds" bit pretty much confirms that Tommen has to die before Myrcella in order for the prophecy to be true. Given the importance people attach to the Valonqar, I tend to think that it is. Isn't she supposed to be going with Lady Nym to King's Landing? The Trystane-Myrcella engagement seems to be on pretty thin ice and if Cersei was foolish enough to break it (in favour of Harry the Heir or some other lordling), that could lead to the Martells declaring for Aegon.

Also, the Valonqar is Stannis.

[Dornish Vinegar]

Myrcella can't die because she hasn't sat on the throne yet. All three of Cersei's kids will wear crowns, and so far only two of them have. Tommen's doomed, then Cersei will have to crown Myrcella - which is ironic since Myrcella was so nearly crowned as a plot *against* Cersei...

I wouldn't be so hasty to dismiss her as uncrowned just yet. The failed attempt by Arianne to declare Myrcella queen could count as her being crowned. It's a stretch, and I'm not sure I buy it myself, but it's a possiblity.

Another possibililty I'm thinking of: I'd have to do more research and look for some actual textual evidence, but is it possible that the bandages Westerosi use are golden-tinged? Or even the Dornish in particular--we know they are partial to sand-colored silks, which would be close in color to "gold," and we know that bandages are often made of silk, especially among the highborn. I'm sure if any of this were the case someone would have already picked up on it, but it'd be nice if Myrcella being "crowned" just stood for her bandages post-Darkstar. Or maybe if the particular poison Darkstar used (assuming he actually used poison) caused some sort of golden discharge from the wound that discolored the otherwise not-gold bandages? (I'm positive that is not mentioned in the text at all, but it's something I'm gonna keep an eye out for in tWoW.)

[Treekid]

Then, is Tyrion unknowilingly responsible for the death of his nephews and niece?

Joffrey when he drank from the wine he poured and Myrcella after he sent her to the Martell.

In this case how will he be responsible for Tommen's death?

Is the prophecy becoming true?

[Lady Arianne Martell]

Nice necropost :blushing:

[Faint]

She is certainly not dead as of the latest Areo Hotah chapter. The Dornish contingent was amongst themselves in the latter half of that chapter, so they would have acknowledged her death had it already occurred.

I wouldn't be so hasty to dismiss her as uncrowned just yet. The failed attempt by Arianne to declare Myrcella queen could count as her being crowned. It's a stretch, and I'm not sure I buy it myself, but it's a possiblity.

The whole point of using a self-fulfilling prophecy as a literary device is having the person who the prophecy is about see it come true. At the very least, Cersei must know that Myrcella was "crowned," and that has not happened yet.

[Martin Lasarte]

She is certainly not dead as of the latest Areo Hotah chapter. The Dornish contingent was amongst themselves in the latter half of that chapter, so they would have acknowledged her death had it already occurred.

The whole point of using a self-fulfilling prophecy as a literary device is having the person who the prophecy is about see it come true. At the very least, Cersei must know that Myrcella was "crowned," and that has not happened yet.

Maybe it's something only Doran knows. Arianne and the Sand Snakes don't need to know about Myrcella's death, they have different missions.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

I wouldn't be so hasty to dismiss her as uncrowned just yet. The failed attempt by Arianne to declare Myrcella queen could count as her being crowned. It's a stretch, and I'm not sure I buy it myself, but it's a possiblity.

<snip

Arianne never got as far as crowning her so it doesn't count.

I'm hoping Doran found out about the plot in advance and switched Myrcella with Rosamund. That would leave Myrcella just fine and Rosamund the one who lost an ear and could be dying of poison. After what Arianne did it's not likely Doran would want to relieve her of her guilt by saying "Oh don't worry it was the cousin who got hacked."

[Dornish Vinegar]

Arianne never got as far as crowning her so it doesn't count.

I'm hoping Doran found out about the plot in advance and switched Myrcella with Rosamund. That would leave Myrcella just fine and Rosamund the one who lost an ear and could be dying of poison. After what Arianne did it's not likely Doran would want to relieve her of her guilt by saying "Oh don't worry it was the cousin who got hacked."

Like I said, it's a stretch. But in the end if she was never crowned, she was never crowned.

That would be a nice turn of events, especially since I'm pretty positive Doran knew about the plot the whole time. I know Myrcella and Rosamund are supposed to look very much alike, but don't you think Arianne would have been able to tell the difference between them? I agree that, if a switch did occur, Doran would not have let Arianne know about it, to let her stew in guilt a lil bit. Seems consistent with some of what we've seen with his parenting skills so far.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Like I said, it's a stretch. But in the end if she was never crowned, she was never crowned.

That would be a nice turn of events, especially since I'm pretty positive Doran knew about the plot the whole time. I know Myrcella and Rosamund are supposed to look very much alike, but don't you think Arianne would have been able to tell the difference between them? I agree that, if a switch did occur, Doran would not have let Arianne know about it, to let her stew in guilt a lil bit. Seems consistent with some of what we've seen with his parenting skills so far.

Generally yes, but they were traveling first in the dark, and then with their faces covered to protect them from the sun and the sand. Arianne was rather caught up in her own thoughts throughout the plot IIRC. She might not have payed much attention. If the resemblance is close enough, she could have been easily fooled.

[Lord Damian]

Forgive me if I am wrong but do the prophecies not imply that Cersei would watch her children die, if that is so, Marcylla is still alive.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Forgive me if I am wrong but do the prophecies not imply that Cersei would watch her children die, if that is so, Marcylla is still alive.

Well it doesn't say it outright. Implication is another ball of wax. Let me see if I can remember it. "...gold shall be their crowns, and gold their shrouds, and when your tears have drowned you..." I don't really get the sense that she has to see it, but knowing Cersei she won't believe it unless she does.