68 replies to this topic

[Ragnorak]

Ned is often criticized for his failure in Kings Landing because of his ineptness at playing The Game of Thrones.  There are at least three moments that jump to mind: telling Cersei he knew about the incest, not taking Renly up on his offer, and trusting Littlefinger with the Gold Cloaks.  While all of these are clearly mistakes, as Ned's beheading can attest to, they are also actions that are completely consistent for Ned.  They are not "mistakes" in the sense that he veered of course or failed to be Ned-like.  Their being mistakes is also heavily dependent on the timing of Robert's death and not purely on Ned's nature and thus seem suspect as tragic flaw indicators.

It isn't that Ned was a failure at The Game of Thrones so much as that he didn't actually play the game at all.  No one in his right mind brings in a Ned Stark to "out intrigue" a Varys.  As a ruler in the North, the Game of Thrones was essentially ineffectual against Ned.  If Ned was vulnerable to the game, Roose Bolton would either be sitting in Winterfell or running it as a puppet government and not cutting out the tongues of smallfolk in fear that they might run to Ned Stark.

Since Ned wasn't vulnerable to the Game as a ruler in Winterfell, wasn't made Hand for his prowess as a player, and never really engaged in the game, is viewing his failure as a player the proper way to look for his tragic flaw?  If not what was it?  I suspect it is the attempted redemption of Robert.

Consider the Varys/Illyrio conversation:

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“And when he learns the truth, what will he do?” a second voice asked in the liquid accents of the Free Cities.
“The gods alone know,” the first voice said.

Stannis Baratheon and Lysa Arryn have fled beyond my reach, and the whispers say they are gathering swords around them. The Knight of Flowers writes Highgarden, urging his lord father to send his sister to court. The girl is a maid of fourteen, sweet and beautiful and tractable, and Lord Renly and Ser Loras intend that Robert should bed her, wed her, and make a new queen. Littlefinger… the gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing. Yet Lord Stark’s the one who troubles my sleep. He has the bastard, he has the book, and soon enough he’ll have the truth. And now his wife has abducted Tyrion Lannister, thanks to Littlefinger’s meddling. Lord Tywin will take that for an outrage, and Jaime has a queer affection for the Imp. If the Lannisters move north, that will bring the Tullys in as well.

Of all the players mentioned only Ned Stark troubles his sleep.  This is because the gods alone know what he'll do.  The same question asked regarding any other person would yield the answer "whatever I manipulate them into doing."  Ned isn't playing the game so he isn't a piece that can be easily or predictably moved.

Ned and Robert argue in just about every scene they are together.

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You never told me what she looked like…”
Ned’s mouth tightened in anger. “Nor will I. Leave it be, Robert, for the love you say you bear me.
The king was not pleased. He took his arm from around Ned’s shoulders. “Jon’s service was the duty he owed his liege lord. I am not ungrateful, Ned. You of all men ought to know that
“Robert, you cannot mean this,” Ned protested.
The king was in no mood for more argument. “Enough, Ned, I will hear no more.

Robert sought out Ned to be his Hand and yet refuses to take Ned's advice.  Robert is very apathetic toward ruling, he almost never shows up to council meetings.

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As ever, Robert had not troubled himself to attend the council session, so it fell to his Hand to speak for him.

Given Robert's absence it seems that as Hand Ned was technically free to effectively act as King.

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“You are the King’s Hand,” Varys said. “We serve at your pleasure, Lord Stark.”

He chose not to.

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Her father had been fighting with the council again. Arya could see it on his face when he came to table, late again, as he had been so often.

One does not need to spend hours arguing with advisors if he wields the power of a regent.  Some issues were likely obligations thrust upon him by Robert but doubtfully all of them.  It seems reasonable to conclude that Ned was not seizing all power that Robert refused to wield or there would be no need for arguments.

I think Ned wanted to pull Robert back into his rightful role as King and redeem his friend.  Here is where we see this and see the Robert whom Ned is looking for.

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“I am sorry for your girl, Ned. Truly. About the wolf, I mean. My son was lying, I’d stake my soul on it. My son… you love your children, don’t you?”
“With all my heart,” Ned said.
“Let me tell you a secret, Ned. More than once, I have dreamed of giving up the crown. Take ship for the Free Cities with my horse and my hammer, spend my time warring and whoring, that’s what I was made for. The sellsword king, how the singers would love me. You know what stops me? The thought of Joffrey on the throne, with Cersei standing behind him whispering in his ear. My son. How could I have made a son like that, Ned?”
“He’s only a boy,” Ned said awkwardly. He had small liking for Prince Joffrey, but he could hear the pain in Robert’s voice. “Have you forgotten how wild you were at his age?”
“It would not trouble me if the boy was wild, Ned. You don’t know him as I do.” He sighed and shook his head. “Ah, perhaps you are right. Jon despaired of me often enough, yet I grew into a good king.” Robert looked at Ned and scowled at his silence. “You might speak up and agree now, you know.”
“Your Grace…” Ned began, carefully.
Robert slapped Ned on the back. “Ah, say that I’m a better king than Aerys and be done with it. You never could lie for love nor honor, Ned Stark. I’m still young, and now that you’re here with me, things will be different. We’ll make this a reign to sing of, and damn the Lannisters to seven hells. I smell bacon. Who do you think our champion will be today? Have you seen Mace Tyrell’s boy? The Knight of Flowers, they call him. Now there’s a son any man would be proud to own to. Last tourney, he dumped the Kingslayer on his golden rump, you ought to have seen the look on Cersei’s face. I laughed till my sides hurt. Renly says he has this sister, a maid of fourteen, lovely as a dawn…”
This was the boy he had grown up with, he thought; this was the Robert Baratheon he’d known and loved. If he could prove that the Lannisters were behind the attack on Bran, prove that they had murdered Jon Arryn, this man would listen. Then Cersei would fall, and the Kingslayer with her, and if Lord Tywin dared to rouse the west, Robert would smash him as he had smashed Rhaegar Targaryen on the Trident. He could see it all so clearly.

The "now that you're here with me" echoes his original request for Ned to be Hand.

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“You helped me win this damnable throne, now help me hold it. We were meant to rule together.

Ned wants to help Robert rule, restore his friend to his previous honorable state, but he does not want to rule himself.  

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“Damn you, Ned Stark. You and Jon Arryn, I loved you both. What have you done to me? You were the one should have been king, you or Jon.”

That was your moment. All you needed to do was climb those steps, and sit. Such a sad mistake.”
“I have made more mistakes than you can possibly imagine,” Ned said, “but that was not one of them.”

Ned does not want to rule the Seven Kingdoms and this is an important part of his eventual fall.  Ned has been trying to restore the institutions of power from the council to Robert not claiming them as Tyrion did or Ned himself would have done if he had decided to rule instead of redeem Robert.

The heart of their conflict plays out in the Dany assassination argument.

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Ned had heard enough. “You send hired knives to kill a fourteen-year-old girl and still quibble about honor?” He pushed back his chair and stood. “Do it yourself, Robert. The man who passes the sentence should swing the sword. Look her in the eyes before you kill her. See her tears, hear her last words. You owe her that much at least.”
“Gods,” the king swore, the word exploding out of him as if he could barely contain his fury. “You mean it, damn you.”

For Ned it really is about gods and his friend's soul.  The old gods have precious few rules but this is one of them.  We see just how important this is as Karstark thanks Robb for wielding the sword in the midst of his rage.  For Ned this goes back to Tywin's murder of Rhaegar's children which is still a shadow hanging over Jon.  Even before Jon, Robert and Ned fought over Elia, Rhaella, and Aegon.  Robert is correct, this will eventually damn Ned.

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“I am out of wine and out of patience. Enough of this. Just have it done.”
“I will not be part of murder, Robert. Do as you will, but do not ask me to fix my seal to it.”
He laid it on the table in front of the king, saddened by the memory of the man who had pinned it on him, the friend he had loved. “I thought you a better man than this, Robert. I thought we had made a nobler king.”

Ned is resigning over Robert's failed redemption.  In the end it is really the only reason Ned is Hand.  Note how this dispute has nothing to do with actually ruling the Seven Kingdoms or anything regarding the current state of Kings Landing or the Realm.  It is purely a moral issue.  The "nobler king" is a direct shot at Robert's earlier “Ah, say that I’m a better king than Aerys and be done with it" when Ned thought he had found his lost friend.

Ned married his fate to Robert's by choosing to try and redeem his friend.  As foolish of a move as telling Cersei he knew of the incest was as far as the Game of Thrones it really didn't matter.  For Ned it was about redeeming Robert (and Robert not killing children has added importance given Jon) not about securing power.  If Robert hadn't been mortally wounded by the boar, or if Barristan had intervened Ned's telling Cersei wouldn't have mattered.  Ned's "huge mistakes" are only mistakes because of the timing, luck, and random chance surrounding Robert's death.  Different luck or timing and Ned still wins despite these "mistakes."  Ned's fate was married to Robert's regardless of these seemingly inept choices.

Ned's truly fatal mistake was not telling Robert about the incest on his deathbed.  Ned's choice to not seize the institutions of power as a ruler when he first arrived meant all his actual power was derived purely through Robert.  His choice to try and redeem Robert over ruling as Hand the way he ruled in Winterfell removed the armor an honorable leader has to shield him from the game.  After Robert dies Ned is doomed regardless.  He may have faced a less unpleasant fate at the hand of Renly but he would have been equally betrayed and equally powerless to stop it.  His last hope was to use the power derived through Robert to seize control while Robert still drew breath.  It is not being too honorable for the game, but being too honorable to make a dying friend own his mistakes that truly seals Ned's fate.

[The Fallen]

I agree with you on a lot of points. I also have stated that Ned wasn't playing the game of thrones. I also agree that his biggest mistake was not telling Robert about Cersei before he died.

I also want to add Jaime's comment to Cat about Ned only being faithful to Robert. Also, the comment, "the gods alone know" is actually referring to Robert not Ned.

[Cliche Guevara]

I agree with you that Ned's ultimate motivation for accepting the position of Hand was to redeem Robert, but I don't think that justifies his unwillingness to participate in the game. To accomplish anything in King's Landing, he was going to have to participate in some politics at some point. His insistence on the "honorable" path to reform doomed him to failure. How exactly did he plan on redeeming Robert without getting his hands dirty?

[Winter's Knight]

Wonderful post, rarely have I regretted running out of likes so much.

*adds to Nedbert file*

My complaint against Ned is not so much his telling Cersei or his lack of desire to play the game  but his involving his daughters in the mess. He is entitled to risk his neck for his friend's soul but to endanger his helpless,innocent girls was failing his duty as a father.

[Bourne]

Ragnorak, on 29 July 2012 - 10:16 PM, said:

Of all the players mentioned only Ned Stark troubles his sleep.  This is because the gods alone know what he'll do.  The same question asked regarding any other person would yield the answer "whatever I manipulate them into doing."  Ned isn't playing the game so he isn't a piece that can be easily or predictably moved.

Lord Baelish would beg to differ.

[Ragnorak]

@The Fallen
Checked again.  Seems like Ned to me.

Quote

“…found one bastard,” one said. “The rest will come soon. A day, two days, a fortnight…”
“And when he learns the truth, what will he do?” a second voice asked in the liquid accents of the Free Cities.
“The gods alone know,” the first voice said.

@Winter's Knight
Thank you.  In Ned's defense he was planning to send them out of the city by boat while he stayed behind, but yes he should have put them on a boat before dropping the incest bomb.

@Cliche Guevara
"The Game" is basically the dirty and corrupt underside of politics.  It runs counter to who and what Ned is as a character.  Ned got things done exceptionally well throughout the North using a leadership style that did not involve a Game of Thrones type of politics in any way.  I think Ned's leadership style could have been effective in KL if Robert had actually listened to Ned.  For starters, listen to Ned, cancel the costly Tourney, and actually look at why the Realm was in so much debt.  That process alone would either smoke out or severely impair LF by forcing him to spend time covering his tracks instead of plotting even if he isn't caught.  Putting the financial house in order eliminates the undo Lannister influence.  None of that requires backroom deals just basic responsibility.

[timthenchant3r]

Ned should have choose the path Baelish offered him, let Joffery ascend and once Ned secured power as Regent and Hand, reveal the secret and remove the Lannisters.

[Lady Tippy Wolfsbane]

I sometimes wish Ned would have made different choices, but then I remember that without his 'bad' choices we wouldn't have the wonderful story that is ASOIAF.

[Pod The Impaler]

Ragnorak, on 29 July 2012 - 10:16 PM, said:

Ned's truly fatal mistake was not telling Robert about the incest on his deathbed.  Ned's choice to not seize the institutions of power as a ruler when he first arrived meant all his actual power was derived purely through Robert.  His choice to try and redeem Robert over ruling as Hand the way he ruled in Winterfell removed the armor an honorable leader has to shield him from the game.  After Robert dies Ned is doomed regardless.  He may have faced a less unpleasant fate at the hand of Renly but he would have been equally betrayed and equally powerless to stop it.  His last hope was to use the power derived through Robert to seize control while Robert still drew breath.  It is not being too honorable for the game, but being too honorable to make a dying friend own his mistakes that truly seals Ned's fate.

Ned's failure was related to trust, but rather than the conventional explanation that he trust too much, he in fact trusted too little. Trusted Robert too little, trusted Renly too little, trusted Stannis too little. And perhaps trusted Ser Barristan too little.

Had Ned told Robert any of his own suspicions at any time, let alone Lysa Tully's accusations, everything would have been different.
If Ned had bothered to tell Stannis, Renly, or Barristan any of the information he had regarding threats to Robert's life, at least one of them but possibly all of them would have been able to stop Robert's assassination. All he had to do was trust them, and work with them, and not the others.

Robert was a difficult king, and we know from NEd's POV he did not fully trust Robert - but if Ned, both Robert's brothers, and Barristan the Bold had some to him with Cersei's treason, even a responsibility-avoider like Robert would have been roused to decisive action. Heads would roll - Lannister heads.

Ned's stupid mistake in telling Cersei first was indeed an epic blunder, but as you say, if he had called Renly and Barristan into Robert's deathbed and with them present, told Robert everything, this would have solved the succession in seconds. His friend was dying, and he didn't want to break his heart with such news. Except this is after the king had a "hunting accident" ?! Even Ned Stark knows how that works !

I think his real mistake was letting Robert go off huntingat all  without telling him everything he knew up to that point. A few quills and ravens, and a horse cart with him on it might have saved the King and his head. Go to Robert, and when all Lannister ears are away, tell him everything.

Ned tells the right people far too late, if he tells them anything at all. That's his problem, hesitation caused by mistrust.

Edited by Pod The Impaler, 30 July 2012 - 02:29 AM.

[MagnusPrime]

I like the op's view and this new “trust” view presented by pod the impaler.

It makes Ned failings even more saddening.

[Blackfish Tully]

timthenchant3r, on 30 July 2012 - 12:07 AM, said:

Ned should have choose the path Baelish offered him, let Joffery ascend and once Ned secured power as Regent and Hand, reveal the secret and remove the Lannisters.

I feel Littlefinger would have still betrayed him. I believe Littlefinger wanted Ned dead and buried and any help he offered was a deception that would lead to Ned's end.

[Blackfish Tully]

Pod The Impaler, on 30 July 2012 - 02:28 AM, said:

Ned's failure was related to trust, but rather than the conventional explanation that he trust too much, he in fact trusted too little. Trusted Robert too little, trusted Renly too little, trusted Stannis too little. And perhaps trusted Ser Barristan too little.

Had Ned told Robert any of his own suspicions at any time, let alone Lysa Tully's accusations, everything would have been different.
If Ned had bothered to tell Stannis, Renly, or Barristan any of the information he had regarding threats to Robert's life, at least one of them but possibly all of them would have been able to stop Robert's assassination. All he had to do was trust them, and work with them, and not the others.

Robert was a difficult king, and we know from NEd's POV he did not fully trust Robert - but if Ned, both Robert's brothers, and Barristan the Bold had some to him with Cersei's treason, even a responsibility-avoider like Robert would have been roused to decisive action. Heads would roll - Lannister heads.

Ned's stupid mistake in telling Cersei first was indeed an epic blunder, but as you say, if he had called Renly and Barristan into Robert's deathbed and with them present, told Robert everything, this would have solved the succession in seconds. His friend was dying, and he didn't want to break his heart with such news. Except this is after the king had a "hunting accident" ?! Even Ned Stark knows how that works !

I think his real mistake was letting Robert go off huntingat all  without telling him everything he knew up to that point. A few quills and ravens, and a horse cart with him on it might have saved the King and his head. Go to Robert, and when all Lannister ears are away, tell him everything.

Ned tells the right people far too late, if he tells them anything at all. That's his problem, hesitation caused by mistrust.

The big problem I see is lack of proof. There is no DNA evidence so it comes down to would Robert believe that the children he has raised are not really his and even if he believed it would he do anything. He has gotten fat and lazy over the last 20 years, would he be willing to tear his family apart and wage war on the Lannisters or would he meekly refuse to believe Ned and drink himself to death.

[danm_999]

Blackfish Tully, on 30 July 2012 - 07:14 AM, said:

I feel Littlefinger would have still betrayed him. I believe Littlefinger wanted Ned dead and buried and any help he offered was a deception that would lead to Ned's end.

Precisely.

All of this overanalysis of Ned's choices in AGoT ignores the simple truths we learn at the end of ASoS; Littlefinger manipulated all the events of AGoT to cause Ned's downfall and keep Sansa in the capital. It was Littlefinger that had Jon Arryn killed so Ned would come to King's Landing. It was Littlefinger who had Lysa send Catelyn the message that framed the Lannisters for Jon Arryn's death. It was Littlefinger who framed Tyrion as being responsible for Bran's assassination attempt. It was Littlefinger who led Ned down a false path with Ser Hugh. It was Littlefinger who kept Ned in the capital by promising to show him the last place Jon Arryn visited before he died. And, as Varys subtly implies in ACoK, it was Littlefinger who convinced Joffrey to throw out the plan at Baelor's Sept and behead Ned.


To pretend that if Ned had done this or that differently at the eleventh hour, Ned could have been saved, is prepostorous. It wouldn't have mattered if Ned accepted Littlefinger's offer, since Littlefinger was determined to see Ned dead to advance his agenda.

Edited by danm_999, 30 July 2012 - 07:21 AM.

[Blackfish Tully]

danm_999, on 30 July 2012 - 07:21 AM, said:

Precisely.

All of this overanalysis of Ned's choices in AGoT ignores the simple truths we learn at the end of ASoS; Littlefinger manipulated all the events of AGoT to cause Ned's downfall and keep Sansa in the capital. It was Littlefinger that had Jon Arryn killed so Ned would come to King's Landing. It was Littlefinger who had Lysa send Catelyn the message that framed the Lannisters for Jon Arryn's death. It was Littlefinger who framed Tyrion as being responsible for Bran's assassination attempt. It was Littlefinger who led Ned down a false path with Ser Hugh. It was Littlefinger who kept Ned in the capital by promising to show him the last place Jon Arryn visited before he died. And, as Varys subtly implies in ACoK, it was Littlefinger who convinced Joffrey to throw out the plan at Baelor's Sept and behead Ned.


To pretend that if Ned had done this or that differently at the eleventh hour, Ned could have been saved, is prepostorous. It wouldn't have mattered if Ned accepted Littlefinger's offer, since Littlefinger was determined to see Ned dead to advance his agenda.

Great points , I also wonder if Littlefinger when he delayed Ned by showing him the last place that Jon Arryn had visted also tipped off Jamie as to where they would be so Jamie could ambush them.

[Frey Pie]

Blackfish Tully, on 30 July 2012 - 07:20 AM, said:

The big problem I see is lack of proof. There is no DNA evidence so it comes down to would Robert believe that the children he has raised are not really his and even if he believed it would he do anything. He has gotten fat and lazy over the last 20 years, would he be willing to tear his family apart and wage war on the Lannisters or would he meekly refuse to believe Ned and drink himself to death.

I firmly believe Robert would trust Ned over Cersei. Its not like he has a super relationship with any of his family, except for perhaps Renly. Renly and Stannis would back Ned up

[Blackfish Tully]

Frey Pie, on 30 July 2012 - 08:43 AM, said:

I firmly believe Robert would trust Ned over Cersei. Its not like he has a super relationship with any of his family, except for perhaps Renly. Renly and Stannis would back Ned up

I do not think it's a matter of trust , it's more that would Robert be willing to let all hell break loose by announcing that his wife is a traitor and his children were fathered by Jamie Lannister or would he take the easy road and bury his head in the sand and pretend that he does not believe Ned.

[Frey Pie]

Blackfish Tully, on 30 July 2012 - 08:58 AM, said:

I do not think it's a matter of trust , it's more that would Robert be willing to let all hell break loose by announcing that his wife is a traitor and his children were fathered by Jamie Lannister or would he take the easy road and bury his head in the sand and pretend that he does not believe Ned.

I dont think he would have a problem with it. Roberts not one to burry his head in the sand when a storm is brewing

[Ragnorak]

Pod The Impaler, on 30 July 2012 - 02:28 AM, said:

Ned's failure was related to trust, but rather than the conventional explanation that he trust too much, he in fact trusted too little. Trusted Robert too little, trusted Renly too little, trusted Stannis too little. And perhaps trusted Ser Barristan too little.

Had Ned told Robert any of his own suspicions at any time, let alone Lysa Tully's accusations, everything would have been different.
If Ned had bothered to tell Stannis, Renly, or Barristan any of the information he had regarding threats to Robert's life, at least one of them but possibly all of them would have been able to stop Robert's assassination. All he had to do was trust them, and work with them, and not the others.

Robert was a difficult king, and we know from NEd's POV he did not fully trust Robert - but if Ned, both Robert's brothers, and Barristan the Bold had some to him with Cersei's treason, even a responsibility-avoider like Robert would have been roused to decisive action. Heads would roll - Lannister heads.

Ned's stupid mistake in telling Cersei first was indeed an epic blunder, but as you say, if he had called Renly and Barristan into Robert's deathbed and with them present, told Robert everything, this would have solved the succession in seconds. His friend was dying, and he didn't want to break his heart with such news. Except this is after the king had a "hunting accident" ?! Even Ned Stark knows how that works !

I think his real mistake was letting Robert go off huntingat all  without telling him everything he knew up to that point. A few quills and ravens, and a horse cart with him on it might have saved the King and his head. Go to Robert, and when all Lannister ears are away, tell him everything.

Ned tells the right people far too late, if he tells them anything at all. That's his problem, hesitation caused by mistrust.

Sure if Ned acted differently of course it would be different, but would it have been better for Ned?  The problem with trusting too little as the explanation is that trusting too much in LF is what caused his final act of betrayal.  He trusted too much in Cat's family bond with Lysa, he trusted too much in the information about the identity of the dagger's owner.  One of the points of the whole scene where Lady dies is to demonstrate the Ned has good cause to not trust in Robert's reaction.  As an example say he dumps everything on Robert's lap and it comes out that LF lied about Tyrion owning the dagger.  So LF gets blamed, the incest never comes out and Cersei is still plotting to kill off Robert on Varys time table without any LF interference.

Trust is a huge factor in any manipulative game of lies but I don't think you can say trusting too little is what brought on Ned's downfall.

[Blackfish Tully]

Frey Pie, on 30 July 2012 - 09:03 AM, said:

I dont think he would have a problem with it. Roberts not one to burry his head in the sand when a storm is brewing

If this is Robert of 20 or even 10 years ago you would be right , but in GOT he is not the same man he used to be, for example when things are starting to fall apart between the Starks/Tulleys  and the Lannisters instead of dealing with it he runs off to the woods to go hunting but what he really is doing is hiding from his responsibilties. How he and Jon Arryn allowed things to get so screwed up in the capital with the Lannisters pretty much taking over and a man like Janos Slynt as head of the gold cloaks is beyond me. They are as much responsible for Ned's death as anybody , they should have sent Jamie Lannister and Varys to the Wall and never allowed the Lannisters to infest King's Landing.

[Ragnorak]

danm_999, on 30 July 2012 - 07:21 AM, said:

Precisely.

All of this overanalysis of Ned's choices in AGoT ignores the simple truths we learn at the end of ASoS; Littlefinger manipulated all the events of AGoT to cause Ned's downfall and keep Sansa in the capital. It was Littlefinger that had Jon Arryn killed so Ned would come to King's Landing. It was Littlefinger who had Lysa send Catelyn the message that framed the Lannisters for Jon Arryn's death. It was Littlefinger who framed Tyrion as being responsible for Bran's assassination attempt. It was Littlefinger who led Ned down a false path with Ser Hugh. It was Littlefinger who kept Ned in the capital by promising to show him the last place Jon Arryn visited before he died. And, as Varys subtly implies in ACoK, it was Littlefinger who convinced Joffrey to throw out the plan at Baelor's Sept and behead Ned.


To pretend that if Ned had done this or that differently at the eleventh hour, Ned could have been saved, is prepostorous. It wouldn't have mattered if Ned accepted Littlefinger's offer, since Littlefinger was determined to see Ned dead to advance his agenda.

I agree completely with the eleventh hour point.  All those critical moments of Renly's offer, LF's offer, telling Cersei don't really matter.  There is a far larger dynamic at play that was in motion long before Jon Arryn even died.  To think that one eleventh hour choice can change everything misses that point.  Sure the events would have played out differently but not the eventual outcome.

Even if LF never existed it is still likely that Arryn would have been killed by Cersei and Bran would still have been pushed from the tower.  The entire Stark vs Lannister conflict was inevitable without any interference from LF.  Littlefinger masterfully inserts himself into a conflict and tweaks the way it plays out so that he can tip the scales and determine the winner.  The difference is that he didn't fabricate the conflict.  It isn't like Ned was ever going to go to KL and have peaceful relations with his great friends Cersei and Tywin Lannister but for LF's interference.  Would Ned have lost to the Lannisters without any interference from LF and why?  I think he probably would because he's really trying to redeem Robert and his whole success or failure becomes dependent on Robert's redemption.