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Arianne's fate


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#1 Ice Turtle

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 02:46 AM

From the gift chapter we know that Arianne is heading to Aegon. I can see her story continuing in four ways:

1, Dorne will acknowledge Aegon as a legal Targ and will openly support his case. Arianne will remain with Aegon as Doran's envoy or even become his Queen. In that case I think she is doomed, either because of greyscale threat or Daenerys' dragons.

2, Arianne will take initiative into her hands seduce Aegon and become his Queen partly motivated by her complicated relationship with Quentyn, leading to her alienating with Doran again. I that case I think she is doomed, see point 1.

3, Dorne won't acknowledge Aegon as Elia's son, or for other reasons will refuse to join Aegon (brutality of the attack on the Storm Ends, Daenerys having dragons) and JonCon will take Arianne as hostage (the atmosphere of her chapter reminds me a little of Cat before RW), maybe even forcefully marrying her to himself or Aegon to force Doran. Depending on Doran's ability to act and Arianne's ability to escape she may survive.

4, Dorne won't acknowledge Aegon for whichever reason and will seek allies elsewhere (North and the Free cities) which will mean longer life for Arianne.

What do you think?

#2 Mance Mance Fancy Pants

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 09:14 AM

I think #1 is the most likely, but I don't think that she is doomed, I can't see Dany attacking Aegon without diplomacy first, and where would the Greyscale come from, Jon Connington?

#3 LittleDragon8

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 09:36 AM

I am hoping for #4. The way I picture it, Arianne will immediately see fAegon for what he really is, realize she will need allies, because Dorne cannot hope to stand alone against fAegon, and turn North. However, I think it is far more likely #3 will take place, granting us an unbiased pov on fAegon's actions, which will be more interesting story-wise, but nail-biting for Arianne fans.

Edited by LittleDragon8, 02 August 2012 - 09:37 AM.


#4 Ice Turtle

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 10:11 AM

I think #1 is the most likely, but I don't think that she is doomed, I can't see Dany attacking Aegon without diplomacy first, and where would the Greyscale come from, Jon Connington?


There is the prophecy about mummers dragon. So lets say she refuses to acknowledge that Aegon is Rhaegar's son, what space for diplomacy will it leave? According to that Aegon has right to nothing, Dany will see him as another usurper. I won't be surprised if it'll be burn first, ask later. Supposedly it was said that we will see some disease plaguing Westeros and greyscale was mentioned too many times not to play a part and only person that has form dangerous to adults is Connington.

#5 Peko

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 10:28 PM

I know I don't see Arianne dying very soon. With Quentyn dead, pretty much all of Dorne's future political hopes rest on her shoulders, and if she died, I struggle to see what the point of Dorne's storyline has been thus far.

That being said, I do think Aegon will claim the Iron Throne despite being a Blackfyre (it would really hit home the theme presented by Varys' riddle, that power is a trick and that it lies where men believe it resides). So I see Arianne becoming Aegon's queen and having Dorne help him take KL, something that would be made all the more likely if Dorne finds out about Quentyn's demise and decides abandon siding with Daenerys. In the end, they both will probably be killed by Dany and the dragons.

Edited by Peko, 02 August 2012 - 10:30 PM.


#6 Silent_Hero

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Posted 03 August 2012 - 02:18 AM

There is the prophecy about mummers dragon. So lets say she refuses to acknowledge that Aegon is Rhaegar's son, what space for diplomacy will it leave? According to that Aegon has right to nothing, Dany will see him as another usurper. I won't be surprised if it'll be burn first, ask later. Supposedly it was said that we will see some disease plaguing Westeros and greyscale was mentioned too many times not to play a part and only person that has form dangerous to adults is Connington.


The prophecy doesn't necessarily mean she will fight him or kill him, it could mean she will slay his "Lie" but not his life. I mean YG believes he is Aegon doesn't mean he's guilty of treason(Technically) he was raised his whole life into believing he was supposedly a dead prince based on what people told him .

#7 Crown

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Posted 03 August 2012 - 03:12 AM

Doran, and the rest of Dorne, will think it is Daenerys' her fault that Quentyn died. I don't think Doran will join up with the 'murderer' of his son. Therefore he will side with Aegon, and allow Arianne to marry him.

#8 Free Northman

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Posted 03 August 2012 - 06:38 AM

Look, we need to look at it from a macro perspective.

Without Dorne's backing, Aegon's campaign is going to fizzle out in a whimper.

He's not going to conquer the Seven Kingdoms with 10,000 men. He needs Dorne badly. So I think it is a given that Dorne is going to side with him, thus making him a real threat that requires the Iron Throne's attention.

The challenge to me is the timing. Somehow Martin needs news of Quentyn's flame grilling to reach Doran quickly, so that he can shift his allegiance from the Danerys alliance to Aegon. This will lead to Arriane's marriage to Aegon.

But given the slow pace that news travels at in Martinworld, I don't think he's gonna hear about Quentyn before the end of Winds. And it would be unrealistic for Doran to ally with Aegon while he has been hatching the Daenerys plan for so long.

What if Quentyn arrives as Dany's husband just after Doran has allied with Aegon? That would be one big mess. So somehow news is going to have to reach him faster than normal, for the Aegon plot to unfold properly, with Dorne's support.

#9 Ice Turtle

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Posted 03 August 2012 - 08:50 AM

Look, we need to look at it from a macro perspective.

Without Dorne's backing, Aegon's campaign is going to fizzle out in a whimper.

He's not going to conquer the Seven Kingdoms with 10,000 men. He needs Dorne badly. So I think it is a given that Dorne is going to side with him, thus making him a real threat that requires the Iron Throne's attention.


People mostly take Dorne's support for Aegon for granted, which for me means that it's far from it. Isn't it a little too risky to side with Aegon when Dany with her dragons can think he is an usurper and fraud? I think this will be play of emotions, if Doran believes Aegon is who he tell he is, he will support him, otherwise I don't think so, he won't go against him but he will do what Doran does the best: nothing. On the other hand Yronwoods the second strongest house in Dorne supported Blackfyres in every rebellion and house Martell may lose control of Dorne.

You have a great point about about time it will take the news of Quentyn's death to reach Dorne, it will probably happen only very shortly before Dany's arrival.

About Aegon's allies: There is still Reach, much more powerful than Dorne, though I think that house Tyrell is going to lose it's leading position. There is also Vale. LF will probably prefer to wait for Dany but you never know with him. And I think Aegon will have the Faith.

#10 Free Northman

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Posted 03 August 2012 - 09:02 AM

People mostly take Dorne's support for Aegon for granted, which for me means that it's far from it. Isn't it a little too risky to side with Aegon when Dany with her dragons can think he is an usurper and fraud? I think this will be play of emotions, if Doran believes Aegon is who he tell he is, he will support him, otherwise I don't think so, he won't go against him but he will do what Doran does the best: nothing. On the other hand Yronwoods the second strongest house in Dorne supported Blackfyres in every rebellion and house Martell may lose control of Dorne.

You have a great point about about time it will take the news of Quentyn's death to reach Dorne, it will probably happen only very shortly before Dany's arrival.

About Aegon's allies: There is still Reach, much more powerful than Dorne, though I think that house Tyrell is going to lose it's leading position. There is also Vale. LF will probably prefer to wait for Dany but you never know with him. And I think Aegon will have the Faith.


The Reach is really the only force sustaining the Iron Throne at the moment. They already have the Throne. No way they're going to side with someone trying to take it from them.

Besides, Mace Tyrell has already dispatced a force to attack Aegon in Winds of Winter.

As for the Vale, they've really been set up to deal with the Northern situation, not the battles in the south.

For Aegon, in the short term, it's Dorne or nobody, I believe.

#11 JJ Lannister

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Posted 03 August 2012 - 01:46 PM

I think she is doomed. But then again, it's George. Everyone is doomed.

#12 Longspear Ryk

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Posted 03 August 2012 - 03:38 PM

I see drink and the bigman playin a big role to be honest..

#13 Quentyn Baratheon

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Posted 03 August 2012 - 03:53 PM

I think #3. Actually, I HOPE #3. Get Doran kick some asses.
Or #4. #1 & #2 sounds to me like AFFC Arianne, a step back for the character IMO.

#14 the Scorpion Knight

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Posted 03 August 2012 - 04:18 PM

1, Dorne will acknowledge Aegon as a legal Targ and will openly support his case. Arianne will remain with Aegon as Doran's envoy or even become his Queen. In that case I think she is doomed, either because of greyscale threat or Daenerys' dragons.


I think thats what going to happen but I don't think she's doomed. shes going to our Eye on Aegon's political battles

#15 EnragedFilia

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Posted 03 August 2012 - 04:22 PM

The way I see it, Arianne will show up, let us know what happened at Storm's End and leave. She'll try to figure Aegon out in the meantime, but there just isn't enough information available at this point for her to conclude anything beyond "he sure looks like a Targaryen all right". So she'll make a vague promise to talk to her father and head back to Sunspear, and before she gets there something will happen to change the situation.

Someone might mention a betrothal, and she might even agree "if father doesn't object", but for now it seems to me that both sides are best served by stalling while the situation continues to develop.

#16 Ice Turtle

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Posted 03 August 2012 - 04:24 PM

I think thats what going to happen but I don't think she's doomed. shes going to our Eye on Aegon's political battles


I'm 90% sure Aegon is doomed, he won't last past the first third of the Dream, I don't think that his potential wife and close allies will last much longer.

#17 Tini

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Posted 03 August 2012 - 04:52 PM

People mostly take Dorne's support for Aegon for granted, which for me means that it's far from it. Isn't it a little too risky to side with Aegon when Dany with her dragons can think he is an usurper and fraud? I think this will be play of emotions, if Doran believes Aegon is who he tell he is, he will support him, otherwise I don't think so, he won't go against him but he will do what Doran does the best: nothing. On the other hand Yronwoods the second strongest house in Dorne supported Blackfyres in every rebellion and house Martell may lose control of Dorne..


The Yronwoods have a vested interest in Quentyn's quest, so they would not necessarily support Aegon just because Doran doesn't believe he is real. They might even turn on Doran if they think that he betrays his son's quest by allying with Aegon.

House Martell might lose control of Dorne if they refuse to support Aegon for whatever reason: Aegon Targaryen is a prince of Dorne, too. The hot-blooded Dornish will not forget that, they have grown restive under Doran. They will not listen to suspicions that Aegon is not real. I think that doing nothing is not an option this time around. Doran will be forced into action.

If he doesn't want to ally with Aegon, he must get rid of him - secretly. Maybe he will even hire the Faceless Men. That might bring Arya back to Westeros.

If Doran allies with Aegon, he must consider how to breach the loaded subject of Quentyn to his nephew. Jon Connington wants Aegon to remain free to marry Daenerys. That implies he wants Dany free to marry Aegon. It is not only Dany who might be upset by an alliance between Aegon and Dorne. Connington and Aegon would not be happy, either, if they got blindsided by a Quentyn / Daenerys match.

If Aegon got married before Dany's arrival, he might not be averse to believing that the marriage between Quentyn and Dany might make Dany look favorable on his claim to the Iron Throne. Therefore I think Doran would push for a match between Arianne and Aegon. Arianne would give up her claim to Dorne, and Dorne could be given to Dany and Quentyn. Dorne was enough for Queen Nymeria, they might believe it is enough for Dany. Especially if they learn that Dany lost control of her dragons in Mereen. They know about her dragons but I don't think they know how big her army has grown.

Arianne is not really an advantageous match for Aegon, though. He already has a claim to Dornish support through his mother, Princess Elia of Dorne. I can see Arianne seducing Aegon to make him forget this. I'd love to see Jon Connington's face if that happened.

#18 EnragedFilia

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Posted 03 August 2012 - 06:19 PM

Let's consider things from Doran's perspective, keeping in mind his reputation as patient and prudent. As far as he can tell, the only major power immediately relevant to the conflict is House Tyrell. He may suspect that Baelish plans to mobilize the forces of the Vale sometime soon, but even if he did so they're too far away to pose nearly as much threat. All the other power figures remaining are either likewise too far away to quickly respond to the invasion (Frey and whoever took over what's left of the Lannister forces that recently left Riverrun) or too busy or uninterested to do so (Euron would much rather raid Tyrell holdings for easy loot, Stannis and Bolton are keeping each other very busy on the other end of the continent, and anything under the direct command of the Crown that's still left can't be mobilized at all until the political situation in the capital is resolved). The Faith has no motivation to move rapidly at all, much less to oppose what can be billed at large as a restoration of the Targaryen dynasty.

Even if Doran suspects Aegon 'isn't real' or earnestly believes that Quentyn will succeed and return married to Denaerys, he has a definite incentive to at least declare enough support to keep the invasion rolling. After all, a victorious pretender can be eliminated later just as easily as a real Targaryen, and even more easily if his forces are exhausted by the conflict in the meantime. And Doran can plan against the possibility that Quentyn will return with Denaerys and the dragons far better if he makes himself look like a faithful ally now than if he gives Aegon a reason to get suspicious.

As for Arianne's: from Jon Connington's perspective she's useful only to get Dorne committed to their side ASAP. Aegon's perspective is similar, but since he honestly seems to believe that Denaerys will arrive soon and that he needs her and the dragons in the long term, he's best off not making a commitment. Doran doesn't need to use her at all because he knows just as well as Connington that Aegon can't afford to refuse an alliance. A marriage would probably be useful in the long term to cement House Martell's standing after a successful Targaryen Restoration, but he's much better off waiting until after the war to see to something like that. Arianne herself, meanwhile, seems to have no particular interest in doing anything beyond playing her part in her father's plans, especially considering how well acting independently worked out for her, Myrcella, and Ser Arys last time.

Unless something changes, by far the most realistic course of action for Doran is to declare full support of Aegon's invasion, making no mention of Quentyn at all (his success or failure can be dealt with later), try for a few quick victories against House Tyrell, then try to quietly persuade the other lords not to put up a fight. With nobody else in much of a position to oppose them, the invasion has a good chance with or without Denaerys, and even if Aegon fails or turns out to be a pretender, there isn't much danger of anyone making the effort to retaliate against Dorne. Most of the rest of the continent is already exhausted and torn up from the war, and they'll be frozen and starving soon besides.

#19 KhalFrodo

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Posted 03 August 2012 - 06:42 PM

Jon Connington is going to spread Greyscale all over Westeros, killing everybody except the mountain tribes of the Vale and the wildlings. Tormund and Shagga fight in single combat for the throne. Shagga cuts off Tormunds member but before he feeds it to the goats he kills his current wench. Tormunds member turns into Lightbringer, Shagga is AAR.... Greatest ending EVER.

#20 KhalFrodo

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Posted 03 August 2012 - 06:49 PM

And I'm gonna choose #4. I think Dorne is to invested in Dany and regardless of how Quentyn met his fate, their invested in the only Targaryen with no question marks around her... Could you imagine if Dany marched the Dornish all the way to the wall? Obsidian tipped spears wielded by Dornishman would definitely make for a bad ass battle scene... I picture it as a scene out of the movie 300 only Areo Hotah would be tearing it up with his badass axe skills.