Lord Varys, on 05 August 2012 - 06:49 AM, said:
It's most likely that Doran and Arianne will reluctantly join Aegon to use the momentum given to them by the Golden Company. Their armies are ready, they stand in the Boneway and the Prince's Pass, they can easily attack Highgarden now, which is occupied and tied up elsewhere, and if they combine the other army with the Golden Company they should be able to take King's Landing itself.
If Arianne and Doran should refuse to join Aegon, they would face severe rebellion from all the Dornish lords. This is (supposedly) Elia Martell's son they would reject, and even if he is not, he is the best chance for immediate revenge against House Lannister for various Martell deaths in recent history.
Arianne is not going to try to become Aegon's queen as long as no news about Quentyn have reached Dorne. But as soon as she and Doran learn about Dany's alleged death/disappearance and about Quentyn's demise, Aegon is going to become a very attractive consort for Arianne. The chances of Dany ever coming to Westeros will be practically non-existent at this time, and even if she would, a marriage between House Martell and Daenerys Targaryen will be impossible without a living Quentyn. Arianne and Aegon might actually reach a rather interesting new concept of shared ruling, making Aegon both King on the Iron Throne and Doran's heir as Prince of Dorne (due to his claim to Sunspear through Elia) if Arianne, in turn, ends up becoming his co-regent on the Iron Throne.
If Doran and Arianne don't want to join Aegon, they could always go for assassination. It doesn't matter who Aegon's mother is if Aegon is dead. That will not cause a Dornish rebellion as long as Doran and Arianne make sure that the blame is placed solidly elsewhere.
I don't think Doran wants Arianne to become both ruling Princess of Dorne and queen of Westeros. Such an arrangement would sideline him, lower his importance, and that of Dorne. The arrangement would also be unnecessary: Quentyn was not irreplaceable, Quentyn still has a younger brother. Doran's younger son will inherit Dorne if Arianne marries Aegon. And since that younger brother is not married yet, a marriage alliance with Daenerys would not be completely impossible.
Jon Connington wants a political match for Aegon. As far as he knows, marrying Arianne doesn't offer Aegon anything that he will not get if he doesn't marry her. The Dornish will fight for Elia of Dorne's son. This will not change when news of Dany's disappearance reaches Westeros. On the contrary: marriage to Arianne will be more attractive if he must fear a conflict with Dany, fear that Dorne will back Dany in that conflict. When Connington learns of Quentyn's mission, but before he learns of its failure, is therefore the time to push for a marriage. Either for Doran - or for Connington and Aegon.
Edited by Tini, 05 August 2012 - 04:41 PM.