76 replies to this topic

[HopeForSpring]

People have raised lots of really interesting points that I want to think about, but also Aegon is her UNCLE. Eeww. Even for Westeros. Viserys wasn't related to her.  That is why I don't think Arianne will end up in a marriage or sexual relationship with him.  Even if he isn't real, he has to pretend to be.

EDIT: Okay he isn't her Uncle, he's her first cousin. My bad.

Edited by HopeForSpring, 03 August 2012 - 07:57 PM.

[Fire and Blood!]

Ice Turtle, on 03 August 2012 - 04:24 PM, said:

I'm 90% sure Aegon is doomed, he won't last past the first third of the Dream, I don't think that his potential wife and close allies will last much longer.

Then you will be surprised when he survives.As for Arianne's fate, well her fate is to rule Dorne.

[the Scorpion Knight]

HopeForSpring, on 03 August 2012 - 07:50 PM, said:

People have raised lots of really interesting points that I want to think about, but also Aegon is her UNCLE. Eeww. Even for Westeros. Viserys wasn't related to her.  That is why I don't think Arianne will end up in a marriage or sexual relationship with him.  Even if he isn't real, he has to pretend to be.

EDIT: Okay he isn't her Uncle, he's her first cousin. My bad.

cousin elia is arianne aunt (doran'S sister)

[Loras]

I think that the crowning of Myrcella incident will lead Arianne to be cautious concerning Aegon.  From the summaries of Arianne II, I got the impression that Arianne was going to travel to Storm's End to see Aegon for herself and then make a judgement.  The ravens that she sends in this chapter seem to be significant and I would not be surprised that they may be used against her at some point.  I wonder whether the increasingly unstable Jon Connington will make a rash decision regarding Arianne.  The reason that we have his viewpoint is the greyscale and I believe it is very significant that nobody else knows about it... Hmm...

[Tini]

Jon Connington is not unstable. He is running out of time, though. His plans for successful conquest include Dornish support for Aegon. Aegon is a prince of Dorne but that doesn't mean that they can afford to antagonize Doran and Arianne. Especially not because they need to win fast (because of Connington's Greyscale).

They don't know about Arianne's plans for Myrcella, they aren't likely to find out. They will find out that a wedding was planned between Myrcella and Arianne's youngest brother. And that Cersei called it off. They will probably suspect that Doran intended to use this marriage to gain the throne, that he planned to make Myrcella queen - but that is the Game of Thrones. Connington is playing it, too.

Doran sent Arianne to make a judgment regarding Aegon. They must decide if they go with Aegon or stay with Daenerys. How likely it is that Daenerys will oppose Aegon, how likely it is that she will win a confrontation. Quentyn's marriage offer is something that Aegon is probably not aware of. But I don't think Arianne is stupid enough to trust this sort of information to ravens. Ravens can be intercepted.

[Lord Varys]

It's most likely that Doran and Arianne will reluctantly join Aegon to use the momentum given to them by the Golden Company. Their armies are ready, they stand in the Boneway and the Prince's Pass, they can easily attack Highgarden now, which is occupied and tied up elsewhere, and if they combine the other army with the Golden Company they should be able to take King's Landing itself.

If Arianne and Doran should refuse to join Aegon, they would face severe rebellion from all the Dornish lords. This is (supposedly) Elia Martell's son they would reject, and even if he is not, he is the best chance for immediate revenge against House Lannister for various Martell deaths in recent history.

Arianne is not going to try to become Aegon's queen as long as no news about Quentyn have reached Dorne. But as soon as she and Doran learn about Dany's alleged death/disappearance and about Quentyn's demise, Aegon is going to become a very attractive consort for Arianne. The chances of Dany ever coming to Westeros will be practically non-existent at this time, and even if she would, a marriage between House Martell and Daenerys Targaryen will be impossible without a living Quentyn. Arianne and Aegon might actually reach a rather interesting new concept of shared ruling, making Aegon both King on the Iron Throne and Doran's heir as Prince of Dorne (due to his claim to Sunspear through Elia) if Arianne, in turn, ends up becoming his co-regent on the Iron Throne.

[LittleDragon8]

I was reading the topic on foreshadowing and Doran apparently presses an onyx (=black) dragon into Arianne's hand. So that could either signal:

1) Dorne will ally with Aegon voluntarily to get their revenge,
2) Arianne will marry Aegon to get revenge
3) or, the most unlikely one, Arianne will one day "own" or ride the black dragon (Drogon)

[amazingoopah]

Aegon will fall in love with Arianne but Arianne will fall in love with... Jon Connington. Aegon will grow jealous and petulant (since he has been sheltered his entire life he won't know how to deal with Arianne), making disastrous mistakes leading to his defeat and death.

[Tini]

Lord Varys, on 05 August 2012 - 06:49 AM, said:

It's most likely that Doran and Arianne will reluctantly join Aegon to use the momentum given to them by the Golden Company. Their armies are ready, they stand in the Boneway and the Prince's Pass, they can easily attack Highgarden now, which is occupied and tied up elsewhere, and if they combine the other army with the Golden Company they should be able to take King's Landing itself.

If Arianne and Doran should refuse to join Aegon, they would face severe rebellion from all the Dornish lords. This is (supposedly) Elia Martell's son they would reject, and even if he is not, he is the best chance for immediate revenge against House Lannister for various Martell deaths in recent history.

Arianne is not going to try to become Aegon's queen as long as no news about Quentyn have reached Dorne. But as soon as she and Doran learn about Dany's alleged death/disappearance and about Quentyn's demise, Aegon is going to become a very attractive consort for Arianne. The chances of Dany ever coming to Westeros will be practically non-existent at this time, and even if she would, a marriage between House Martell and Daenerys Targaryen will be impossible without a living Quentyn. Arianne and Aegon might actually reach a rather interesting new concept of shared ruling, making Aegon both King on the Iron Throne and Doran's heir as Prince of Dorne (due to his claim to Sunspear through Elia) if Arianne, in turn, ends up becoming his co-regent on the Iron Throne.

If Doran and Arianne don't want to join Aegon, they could always go for assassination. It doesn't matter who Aegon's mother is if Aegon is dead. That will not cause a Dornish rebellion as long as Doran and Arianne make sure that the blame is placed solidly elsewhere.

I don't think Doran wants Arianne to become both ruling Princess of Dorne and queen of Westeros. Such an arrangement would sideline him, lower his importance, and that of Dorne. The arrangement would also be unnecessary: Quentyn was not irreplaceable, Quentyn still has a younger brother. Doran's younger son will inherit Dorne if Arianne marries Aegon. And since that younger brother is not married yet, a marriage alliance with Daenerys would not be completely impossible.

Jon Connington wants a political match for Aegon. As far as he knows, marrying Arianne doesn't offer Aegon anything that he will not get if he doesn't marry her. The Dornish will fight for Elia of Dorne's son. This will not change when news of Dany's disappearance reaches Westeros. On the contrary: marriage to Arianne will be more attractive if he must fear a conflict with Dany, fear that Dorne will back Dany in that conflict. When Connington learns of Quentyn's mission, but before he learns of its failure, is therefore the time to push for a marriage. Either for Doran - or for Connington and Aegon.

Edited by Tini, 05 August 2012 - 04:41 PM.

[ckal]

Aegon is the real Aegon Targaryen.

[The Sunset King]

A large amount of the Dornish population and much of the nobility keep pushing harder and harder for Doran to act against what they perceive to be the Dorne's enemies.  Doran has already dispatched the Sand Snakes to various locations in an effort to weaken his foes and will face strong pressures to support Aegon.  It is also possible that Doran could be killed at some point, leaving the main political decisions in Arianne's hands.

Aegon's chances will look better than Myrcella's did, although Arianne likely has become somewhat more cautious as a result of that incident.

Varys will endeavor to get everyone he can on Aegon's side; there is a decent chance he will link up with some of the Sand Snakes.

It seems decently possible that Arianne will try to seduce Aegon, viewing him as a second chance to achieve Doran's dream.  Aegon's advisors, including Connington, may question whether this is a good match though when other options that would grant more military power exist.

Although the Dornish elite is actually aware of the Daenerys situation, unlike most of the realm, they still cannot be certain that she will ever come to Westeros.  Reports of Quentyn's death will likely be accompanied by descriptions of her being enmeshed in Essos's politics.

Edited by The Sunset King, 05 August 2012 - 06:52 PM.

[Greengrace]

Doran Martell has been patient for quite some time and Arianne is making sure to learn from what her crowning Myrcella has done. Dorne is divided and it is known so I don't think they will publicly go with Aegon and Connington but maybe something sly here and there and help them in their attempt but I don't think they be so bold as to place all chips on Aegon. My first question as Prince is how did the babe survive all this time and no one know of him, even with the pact for Viserion's marriage to Arianne not hint of the babe being alive was mention that would make me very uneasy and unwelcoming to hearing about my dead nephew risen again.

[aryagonnakill]

The Sunset King, on 05 August 2012 - 06:51 PM, said:

A large amount of the Dornish population and much of the nobility keep pushing harder and harder for Doran to act against what they perceive to be the Dorne's enemies.  Doran has already dispatched the Sand Snakes to various locations in an effort to weaken his foes and will face strong pressures to support Aegon.  It is also possible that Doran could be killed at some point, leaving the main political decisions in Arianne's hands.

Aegon's chances will look better than Myrcella's did, although Arianne likely has become somewhat more cautious as a result of that incident.

Varys will endeavor to get everyone he can on Aegon's side; there is a decent chance he will link up with some of the Sand Snakes.

It seems decently possible that Arianne will try to seduce Aegon, viewing him as a second chance to achieve Doran's dream.  Aegon's advisors, including Connington, may question whether this is a good match though when other options that would grant more military power exist.

Although the Dornish elite is actually aware of the Daenerys situation, unlike most of the realm, they still cannot be certain that she will ever come to Westeros.  Reports of Quentyn's death will likely be accompanied by descriptions of her being enmeshed in Essos's politics.

I'm wondering if Doran's source of info in kings landing is already in fact varys.  Sarella is another option for this, I know it is largely assumed that Sarella is Alleras but we do not know this as fact.  But Doran clearly has a source and there aren't too many options.

[Jem]

I think that Arianne will have strong doubts concerning Aegon's identity. While she is mulling over how to proceed, her flirtatious young cousin Elia Sand will catch Aegon's eye. Aegon will want to prove himself to be a big man, so he promptly marries her.

Dorne is now in a precarious postion. They are tied to Aegon by marriage, but uncertain if he really is real. Do they fight for him, or do they cut Elia off and fight against him?

[Ice Turtle]

Jem, on 07 August 2012 - 11:03 PM, said:

I think that Arianne will have strong doubts concerning Aegon's identity. While she is mulling over how to proceed, her flirtatious young cousin Elia Sand will catch Aegon's eye. Aegon will want to prove himself to be a big man, so he promptly marries her.

Dorne is now in a precarious postion. They are tied to Aegon by marriage, but uncertain if he really is real. Do they fight for him, or do they cut Elia off and fight against him?

Elia is a bastard, if Aegon marries her it will be ten times as stupid as when Robb married Jeyne. Though he may sleep with her and then be royal jerk about it, I never thought why GRRM sent Elia with Arianne but she has to have some part to play.

Edited by Ice Turtle, 08 August 2012 - 05:27 AM.

[Lord Varys]

I very much doubt that Aegon will turn out to be as stupid as Robb was.

1. We can assume that he was much better educated and trained than Robb was. All he lacks is actual experience in battle. But he is willing get those things, and I'm quite sure that he'll do just fine despite Connington's doubts.

2. I have the feeling that Aegon might turn out to be a shrewder politician than many people think. GRRM deliberately refused to give us an in-depth study of his character. The whole Cyvasse-outburst thing was only caused by the fact that Aegon was already very much pissed off before the game even started (remember, he was very unhappy about the fact that they did not allow him to leave the ship!). And now he has taken Tyrion's advice to heart. He trusts no one, and he follows his own judgment. He knows what he wants, and he won't risk his objective for lust or anything else. And even if he would, he is not going to marry a bastard.

[aryagonnakill]

Ice Turtle, on 08 August 2012 - 01:11 AM, said:

Elia is a bastard, if Aegon marries her it will be ten times as stupid as when Robb married Jeyne. Though he may sleep with her and then be royal jerk about it, I never thought why GRRM sent Elia with Arianne but she has to have some part to play.

I agree, because I think GRRM is very good at interconnecting things and not just including things for no reason. However Elia could have been put in just to show the caves which were most likely once or presently inhabited by the children of the forest, or to provide a comparison to show us how much Arianne has matured because Elia was acting childish along the journey.

[Lion of Judah]

I don't think Dorne supports Agon over Daenerys she had dragons and Dorne has a history of picking the winning side.

[Jem]

Ice Turtle, on 08 August 2012 - 01:11 AM, said:

Elia is a bastard, if Aegon marries her it will be ten times as stupid as when Robb married Jeyne. Though he may sleep with her and then be royal jerk about it, I never thought why GRRM sent Elia with Arianne but she has to have some part to play.

Of course it will be stupid, but Aegon has already shown himself to be head-strong and not wanting to listen to his advisors. I think that this is the reason that Elia has been included in the story. And who cares if she is a bastard? Aegon thinks he is a king (or shortly about to become one), if he does declare himself to be king then he can just legitimise her, easy done.

He is a hot young guy, she is a hot young girl, "true love" leads to tragedy again, they are on a one way train to Disasterville, and we are about to see a repeat of the fates of the original Aegon and the original Elia at the hands of one Ser Robert Strong. Game over Aegon. Again.

[kneo]

Arianne will probably marry Jon C. Jon is discussing about this with his maester and since they are keeping Aegon for Dany, the only important candidate available remains Jon C.