76 replies to this topic

[Lord Varys]

I doubt that this Elia character is going to become important. It's not unlikely that GRRM only put her in there to correct his earlier mistakes. Back in AGoT Catelyn Stark had no female entourage, which was something many people were wondering about. Margaery and Cersei later got their flock of hens, and the future Princess of Dorne should also have an entourage when acting as an envoy.

As to Aegon, he does listen to advice. He only ends up making the final decision. Something a king should do, after all. Deciding to lead the attack on Storm's End puts him at risk, yes, but it also shows his men - which are a bunch of sellswords - that he has balls. If Aegon should turn out to be a coward, they might very well end up selling him to the Tyrells if they start losing any battles...

Edited by Lord Varys, 09 August 2012 - 08:29 AM.

[sumant30]

Lord Varys, on 09 August 2012 - 04:08 AM, said:

I doubt that this Elia character is going to become important. It's not unlikely that GRRM only put her in there to correct his earlier mistakes. Back in AGoT Catelyn Stark had no female entourage, which was something many people were wondering about. Margaery and Cersei later got their flock of hens, and the future Princess of Dorne should also have an entourage when acting as an envoy.

As to Aegon, he does listen to advice. He only ends up making the final decision. Something a king should do, after all. Deciding to lead the attack on Storm's End puts him at risk, yes, but it also shows his men - after all, they are a bunch of sellswords - that he has balls. If Aegon should turn out to be a coward, they might very well end up selling him to the Tyrells if they start losing any battles...

I hope that aegon is not fake and as to arianne it is possible she will rule dorne.

[Jon Icefyre]

Silent_Hero, on 03 August 2012 - 02:18 AM, said:

The prophecy doesn't necessarily mean she will fight him or kill him, it could mean she will slay his "Lie" but not his life. I mean YG believes he is Aegon doesn't mean he's guilty of treason(Technically) he was raised his whole life into believing he was supposedly a dead prince based on what people told him .

When have you ever known GRRM to be merciful in cases of honest misunderstandings? This is war and when Dany see's Aegon she won't see some poor helpless boy who's been deceived and raised on a lie. She'll see him as a pretender(aka the mummers dragon) come steal her throne, her Kingdom that is rightfully hers and she'll destroy him without hesitation by means of Fire and Blood!(aka dragons)  Plus who's to say that by the time Dany and Aegon meet that Aegon's personality won't change??? I mean we can clearly see he's getting more arrogant by the day(I think that Cyvasse game with Tyrion was a bit of foreshadowing)who's to say he won't be a total Douche when he finally meets his Aunt since he thinks his claim is stronger than hers?  Especially if he's already married before they meet for the first time...he might end up simply provoking Dany into burning his fake ass alive hahaha

[The Sunset King]

kneo, on 09 August 2012 - 03:19 AM, said:

Arianne will probably marry Jon C. Jon is discussing about this with his maester and since they are keeping Aegon for Dany, the only important candidate available remains Jon C.

Connington's contraction of greyscale will present a problem in his ability to help Aegon's team.  Normally his ability to have a marriage with important potential allies would be of great use to Aegon.  However, if the greyscale remains active Connington's life span will be greatly affected by this problem.

[aryagonnakill]

Jon Icefyre, on 09 August 2012 - 09:12 AM, said:

When have you ever known GRRM to be merciful in cases of honest misunderstandings? This is war and when Dany see's Aegon she won't see some poor helpless boy who's been deceived and raised on a lie. She'll see him as a pretender(aka the mummers dragon) come steal her throne, her Kingdom that is rightfully hers and she'll destroy him without hesitation by means of Fire and Blood!(aka dragons)  Plus who's to say that by the time Dany and Aegon meet that Aegon's personality won't change??? I mean we can clearly see he's getting more arrogant by the day(I think that Cyvasse game with Tyrion was a bit of foreshadowing)who's to say he won't be a total Douche when he finally meets his Aunt since he thinks his claim is stronger than hers?  Especially if he's already married before they meet for the first time...he might end up simply provoking Dany into burning his fake ass alive hahaha

I think you're underestimating Dany's sympathy which we have seen in great detail. Examples include helping the plague victims and foolishly not sacking Yunkai and Mereen, and you're also forgetting Tyrion, and idk how you can do that cause he's awesome.  Tyrion is going to tell Dany about Aegon, about how Ilyrio kept him hidden and raised him to rule.  Dany is gonna be mad at Ilyrio not Aegon in my opinion.  Remember when Jorah told her that Ilyrio sold her and she realized it was the truth?  Now think about how she's gonna feel to find out that Ilyrio was sending her off to die so Aegon wouldn't have any competition.  Add in the fact that Barristan promised the Tattered Prince Pentos, and that Ilyrio has slaves, and I think were gonna see Dany go to Pentos and burn the shit out of Ilyrio, not Aegon.  And all that only matters if Aegon is fake which we don't know for sure.  But it would be cool if Dany got Ilyrio to admit it either while or right before burning him.

Edited by aryagonnakill, 09 August 2012 - 12:47 PM.

[Jon Icefyre]

aryagonnakill, on 09 August 2012 - 12:47 PM, said:

I think you're underestimating Dany's sympathy which we have seen in great detail. Examples include helping the plague victims and foolishly not sacking Yunkai and Mereen, and you're also forgetting Tyrion, and idk how you can do that cause he's awesome.  Tyrion is going to tell Dany about Aegon, about how Ilyrio kept him hidden and raised him to rule.  Dany is gonna be mad at Ilyrio not Aegon in my opinion.  Remember when Jorah told her that Ilyrio sold her and she realized it was the truth?  Now think about how she's gonna feel to find out that Ilyrio was sending her off to die so Aegon wouldn't have any competition.  Add in the fact that Barristan promised the Tattered Prince Pentos, and that Ilyrio has slaves, and I think were gonna see Dany go to Pentos and burn the shit out of Ilyrio, not Aegon.  And all that only matters if Aegon is fake which we don't know for sure.  But it would be cool if Dany got Ilyrio to admit it either while or right before burning him.

I haven't forgotten anything I think you have forgotten the nature of this series.  Win you play the Game of thrones you win or you die there is no middle ground. It's pretty obvious that the "mummers black dragon" is Aegon of house Blackfyre a house that plagued the Targaryens for a century with rebellions and by the time Dany finally does make it to Westeros Aegon will most likely be married and sitting on the Iron throne.  Aegon's attitude toward his pretend aunt won't exactly be humble I promise you that...I think he made it pretty clear he stopped giving a shit about her the moment he set sail for Westeros to clame the throne for himself and I bet he'll let her know that in more ways than one.  The reason Aegon and JC wanted to join forces with Dany in the first place was because of her dragons and her acknowledgement of Aegon would make his claim stronger.  But if he's already sitting on the iron throne when she finally gets to Westeros and he's already married(which is likely to happen) he won't need her.  In fact at that point her presence will do him more harm than good because Dany isn't gonna settle for anything other than the Iron throne and Aegon will already have the throne along with his queen.  Here's what I thinks gonna happen:
1. Aegons gonna take the iron throne
2. He's gonna marry if he hasn't already to strengthen his ties to Westeros
3. Danys gonna land in Westeros
4. Although Tyrion will tell Dany Aegons story it won't make her feel anymore peaceful and she'll call Aegon a pretender and rally a rebellion.
5.Aegon now being a full blown king and crazy arrogant(what the cyvasse game was foreshadowing to)will react the same way Joffrey did when Ned Stark outed him.  He'll call her a traitor and demand her head thus starting the second Dance of dragons that GRRM has said would happen.
6. The girl will win this time(aka Dany) her dragons will either burn Aegon alive or eat him like how queen Rhaenyra was eaten in the first Dance of dragons.
7. Dany's victory and the death of Aegon will end the blackfyre rebellions once and for all.
Battles for the iron throne don't end in mercy they end in the death of your enemies.  Regardless of what your personal feelings are when a usurper sits on the iron throne and you wage war on them it only ends with the death of one of you.  To think that Dany and Aegon are just gonna hold hands around a camp fire and sing kumbaya is just foolish wishful thinking at best.  Although Dany can be merciful she's also not an idiot she knows she'll have to kill Aegon to send a message to the realm that she's not to be challenged. The series is most likely gonna end with one of them killing the other, and to think otherwise is just simply not realistic for the situation.

Edited by Jon Icefyre, 09 August 2012 - 05:48 PM.

[aryagonnakill]

Jon Icefyre, on 09 August 2012 - 02:58 PM, said:

I haven't forgotten anything I think you have forgotten the nature of this series.  Win you play the Game of thrones you win or you die there is no middle ground. It's pretty obvious that the "mummers black dragon" is Aegon of house Blackfyre a house that plagued the Targaryens for a century with rebellions and by the time Dany finally does make it to Westeros Aegon will most likely be married and sitting on the Iron throne.  Aegon's attitude toward his pretend aunt won't exactly be humble I promise you that...I think he made it pretty clear he stopped giving a shit about her the moment he set sail for Westeros to clame the throne for himself and I bet he'll let her know that in more ways than one.  The reason Aegon and JC wanted to join forces with Dany in the first place was because of her dragons and her acknowledgement of Aegon would make his claim stronger.  But if he's already sitting on the iron throne when she finally gets to Westeros and he's already married(which is likely to happen) he won't need her.  In fact at that point her presence will do him more harm than good because Dany isn't gonna settle for anything other than the Iron throne and Aegon will already have the throne along with his queen.  Here's what I thinks gonna happen:
1. Aegons gonna take the iron throne
2. He's gonna marry if he hasn't already to strengthen his ties to Westeros
3. Danys gonna land in Westeros
4. Although Tyrion will tell Dany Aegons story it won't make her feel anymore peaceful and she'll call Aegon a pretender and rally a rebellion.
5.Aegon now being a full blown king and crazy arrogant(what the cyvasse game was foreshadowing to)will react the same way Joffrey did when Ned Stark outed him.  He'll call her a traitor and demand her head thus starting the second Dance of dragons that GRRM has said would happen.
6. The girl will win this time(aka Dany) her dragons will either burn Aegon alive or eat him like how queen Rhaenyra was eaten in the first Dance of dragons.
7. Dany's victory and the death of Aegon will end the blackfyre rebellions once and for all.
Battles for the iron throne don't end in mercy they end in the death of your enemies.  Regardless of what your personal feelings are when a usurper sits on the iron throne and you wage war on them it only ends with the death of one of you.  To think that Dany and Aegon are just gonna hold hands around a camp fire and sing kumbaya is just foolish wishful thinking at best.  Although Dany can be merciful she's also not an idiot she knows she'll have to kill Aegon to send a message to the realm that she's not to be challenged. The series is most likely gonna end with one of them killing the other, and to think otherwise is just simply not realistic for the situation.

I never said they would become friends and sing kumbaya. Your words in your original post were that Dany would destroy him without hesitation and thats what I'm saying will not happen.  Dany will talk to him and give him a chance, I guarantee it.  Though I can't know anymore than anyone else.

[The Sunset King]

Seems likely that they will parley with each other first but fail to come to an agreement about the throne.  Aegon will suggest that his claim is superior (believing himself to be real) and probably will already be on the Iron Throne.  Whatever he offers he will not be good enough for a queen that was so powerful in Essos and who is bent on claiming Westeros as her own domain.  Daenerys's allies will likely urge a militant approach to dealing with those who doubt her legitimacy or overriding right to the queenship.

The fact that both of them will probably be married will present a huge problem also that will be one of the primary catalysts to conflict.  Another would be if Daenerys suspects or somehow knows that Aegon is a fraud (whether or not she specifically knows of the Blackfyre stuff).  It would be easy to be suspicious of Aegon's claim to be a real Targaryen but it would be extremely difficult to actually provide evidence that he is false, although apparently somehow that will happen, at least in a way that is convincing to Daenerys herself (slayer of lies, etc.).

As many others have said, Aegon will probably either marry or make a marriage pact well before Daenerys enters the picture.  I suspect it will be before he gains the throne and that it will be done in part to secure valuable military support.  A new DWD could be avoided if the following conditions were met:

1.  Aegon remains unmarried long enough for Daenerys to arrive and has achieved a significant level of success without having to rely on a marriage alliance.  (No longer nearly as great a strategy from the Golden Company's point of view; their planning now no longer focuses on Daenerys's help and their Maester is talking about Aegon marrying someone in Westeros).

2.  Daenerys remains unmarried or willing to engage in a politically motivated divorce.  There are several things which would likely derail this.  There is the question of who will follow Hizdahr; perhaps she will need the help of the Greyjoys' fleet.  Then there is the problem of whether she will be convinced by the propaganda which alleges that Aegon is who he claims to be.

3.  The two would have to settle on how to co-rule.  Both of them essentially want to be the predominate element in ruling Westeros.  Neither would accept subordination to the other.  

Probably none of these three conditions will be met (though point three would be reasonably possible if points one and two were achieved) which will make the initial negotiations quickly turn antagonistic.  This in turn will cause each side to mobilize and prepare for a conflict which will become inevitable.

Despite this being a massive, large scale conflict, I think that there will be yet more facets of the war for control of Westeros even after the collapse of Aegon.  Perhaps from Stannis or other sources.

Edited by The Sunset King, 09 August 2012 - 06:48 PM.

[Jon Icefyre]

aryagonnakill, on 09 August 2012 - 06:17 PM, said:

I never said they would become friends and sing kumbaya. Your words in your original post were that Dany would destroy him without hesitation and thats what I'm saying will not happen.  Dany will talk to him and give him a chance, I guarantee it.  Though I can't know anymore than anyone else.

Ok that's understandable. I totally see ur point maybe I over did it with the destroy without hesitation thing Haha.  They probably will have a peaceful sit down before hand to negotiate/try to form an alliance of some sort that won't work. I just think the end result will be war between them I mean GRRM already confirmed that there will be a second dance of dragons before the series is over so that news can't be good for Dany and Aegons relationship.....

[aryagonnakill]

Jon Icefyre, on 09 August 2012 - 06:49 PM, said:

Ok that's understandable. I totally see ur point maybe I over did it with the destroy without hesitation thing Haha.  They probably will have a peaceful sit down before hand to negotiate/try to form an alliance of some sort that won't work. I just think the end result will be war between them I mean GRRM already confirmed that there will be a second dance of dragons before the series is over so that news can't be good for Dany and Aegons relationship.....

I can totally see that, I originally thought he might die right before Dany got back to Westeros but the Dance of Dragons thing is a good point.

[Volantis]

LittleDragon8, on 02 August 2012 - 09:36 AM, said:

I am hoping for #4. The way I picture it, Arianne will immediately see fAegon for what he really is, realize she will need allies, because Dorne cannot hope to stand alone against fAegon, and turn North. However, I think it is far more likely #3 will take place, granting us an unbiased pov on fAegon's actions, which will be more interesting story-wise, but nail-biting for Arianne fans.

What do you mean "What he really is"? He is no Joffrey if that is what you mean

[Jon Icefyre]

Volantis, on 17 August 2012 - 01:21 PM, said:

What do you mean "What he really is"? He is no Joffrey if that is what you mean

He's a blackfyre pretender(aka Dany's prophecy of the mummers black dragon)the sigil of house blackfyre is a black dragon

Edited by Jon Icefyre, 17 August 2012 - 02:24 PM.

[fyrfly]

amazingoopah, on 05 August 2012 - 03:05 PM, said:

Aegon will fall in love with Arianne but Arianne will fall in love with... Jon Connington. Aegon will grow jealous and petulant (since he has been sheltered his entire life he won't know how to deal with Arianne), making disastrous mistakes leading to his defeat and death.

I totally agree!!

[fyrfly]

if there is a second dance of dragons it could be with Jon Snow, who would Dany percieve as a mummurs dragon, Lyanna Stark's son who has no targaryen features and only Howland Reed knows he exists or the suppossed son of Elia Martell, who looks a lot like his father? which is strange?
going off topic now
how did Varys and Illyrio know that the kid would grow up to resemble Rhaegar?? and whats in it for Varys?? will he get a more comfortable appartment?? I mean seriously what will his personal gain be??
nevermind the last comment plenty of threads going on and on about that

[Tini]

The dance of the dragons might be a confrontation between dragon riders. Dany is one, but she may not have any control over who rides the other two. If Victarion manages to snare the dragons (for himself or for Euron), the dance of the dragons might involve the Ironborn and Dany.

[Jon Icefyre]

fyrfly, on 10 September 2012 - 07:47 AM, said:

if there is a second dance of dragons it could be with Jon Snow, who would Dany percieve as a mummurs dragon, Lyanna Stark's son who has no targaryen features and only Howland Reed knows he exists or the suppossed son of Elia Martell, who looks a lot like his father? which is strange?
going off topic now
how did Varys and Illyrio know that the kid would grow up to resemble Rhaegar?? and whats in it for Varys?? will he get a more comfortable appartment?? I mean seriously what will his personal gain be??
nevermind the last comment plenty of threads going on and on about that

I never thought about the "Mummers dragon"  Like that but it totally makes sense Jon doesn't have any Targ features so dany might assume he's a pretender when the real pretender is Aegon(a blackfyre)

[NorthRemembers]

Jon Icefyre, on 09 August 2012 - 02:58 PM, said:

I haven't forgotten anything I think you have forgotten the nature of this series.  Win you play the Game of thrones you win or you die there is no middle ground. It's pretty obvious that the "mummers black dragon" is Aegon of house Blackfyre a house that plagued the Targaryens for a century with rebellions and by the time Dany finally does make it to Westeros Aegon will most likely be married and sitting on the Iron throne.  Aegon's attitude toward his pretend aunt won't exactly be humble I promise you that...I think he made it pretty clear he stopped giving a shit about her the moment he set sail for Westeros to clame the throne for himself and I bet he'll let her know that in more ways than one.  The reason Aegon and JC wanted to join forces with Dany in the first place was because of her dragons and her acknowledgement of Aegon would make his claim stronger.  But if he's already sitting on the iron throne when she finally gets to Westeros and he's already married(which is likely to happen) he won't need her.  In fact at that point her presence will do him more harm than good because Dany isn't gonna settle for anything other than the Iron throne and Aegon will already have the throne along with his queen.  Here's what I thinks gonna happen:
1. Aegons gonna take the iron throne
2. He's gonna marry if he hasn't already to strengthen his ties to Westeros
3. Danys gonna land in Westeros
4. Although Tyrion will tell Dany Aegons story it won't make her feel anymore peaceful and she'll call Aegon a pretender and rally a rebellion.
5.Aegon now being a full blown king and crazy arrogant(what the cyvasse game was foreshadowing to)will react the same way Joffrey did when Ned Stark outed him.  He'll call her a traitor and demand her head thus starting the second Dance of dragons that GRRM has said would happen.
6. The girl will win this time(aka Dany) her dragons will either burn Aegon alive or eat him like how queen Rhaenyra was eaten in the first Dance of dragons.
7. Dany's victory and the death of Aegon will end the blackfyre rebellions once and for all.
Battles for the iron throne don't end in mercy they end in the death of your enemies.  Regardless of what your personal feelings are when a usurper sits on the iron throne and you wage war on them it only ends with the death of one of you.  To think that Dany and Aegon are just gonna hold hands around a camp fire and sing kumbaya is just foolish wishful thinking at best.  Although Dany can be merciful she's also not an idiot she knows she'll have to kill Aegon to send a message to the realm that she's not to be challenged. The series is most likely gonna end with one of them killing the other, and to think otherwise is just simply not realistic for the situation.

The Dance of the Dragons was a Targ civil war and had nothing to do with the Blackfyres. So if Aegon is fake, it's a repeat of the Blackfyre rebeliions, not the Dance of the Dragons.

[Ice Turtle]

NorthRemembers, on 18 September 2012 - 01:28 PM, said:

The Dance of the Dragons was a Targ civil war and had nothing to do with the Blackfyres. So if Aegon is fake, it's a repeat of the Blackfyre rebeliions, not the Dance of the Dragons.

I personally think we will see both mixed into one civil war.

[BaseBornBastard]

I think it's quite likely that Aegon and Dany will never even meet each other, let alone come into conflict. I'm guessing Aegon will marry sonn (maybe to Arianne) form a few alliances and begin his campaign to seize the iron throne. maybe he will win it or maybe he'll die. I believe, that Dany in the meantime. will travel further east to Asshai and "pass beneath the shadow". When Dany does finally reach Westeros the place will probably be so overrun with Others that the iron throne will be the last thing on her mind.

[jarl the climber]

Ice Turtle, on 02 August 2012 - 02:46 AM, said:

From the gift chapter we know that Arianne is heading to Aegon. I can see her story continuing in four ways:

1, Dorne will acknowledge Aegon as a legal Targ and will openly support his case. Arianne will remain with Aegon as Doran's envoy or even become his Queen. In that case I think she is doomed, either because of greyscale threat or Daenerys' dragons.

2, Arianne will take initiative into her hands seduce Aegon and become his Queen partly motivated by her complicated relationship with Quentyn, leading to her alienating with Doran again. I that case I think she is doomed, see point 1.

3, Dorne won't acknowledge Aegon as Elia's son, or for other reasons will refuse to join Aegon (brutality of the attack on the Storm Ends, Daenerys having dragons) and JonCon will take Arianne as hostage (the atmosphere of her chapter reminds me a little of Cat before RW), maybe even forcefully marrying her to himself or Aegon to force Doran. Depending on Doran's ability to act and Arianne's ability to escape she may survive.

4, Dorne won't acknowledge Aegon for whichever reason and will seek allies elsewhere (North and the Free cities) which will mean longer life for Arianne.  

What do you think?

I think we have to add a fith option. The Martells will secretly recognise Aegon and that Arrianne will use the fact that the Martells still nomially support Tommen to travel to the Reach in order to make a marriage alliance with the Wilas Tyrell or the Redwyne twins or a Hightower. From JonC's perspective she might be more valuable in that capacity. I like that or opton 4. I think this Darkstar guy will take the Black, Obara Sand the hardiest of the Sand Snakes will escort him to the Wall in part to see what Stannis is up to. I don't see the other 2 Sand Snakes staying out of trouble for very long in Kings Landing.