49 replies to this topic

[yolkboy]

Heresy? Hear me out.... this is serious i promise.

OK, I'm not sold on the idea, but it's something i've been thinking of lately.
I dont wholeheartedly believe it, theres so little evidence, (so dont hammer me for the suggestion - i'm just stiriing the pot). I'm posting this to see if it was possible and collect ideas for motives. Maybe there is something to it that will come out in the stirring.

I dont believe Joff did catspaw Bran. Jamies conclusion that it was Joff seemed like it was based on shakey evidence - on the assumption Joff picked up the valyrian dagger and wanted to please Robert. King Robert had said that its better to be dead than crippled and so Joff decided to do the dirty work (by proxy).

Tyrion suspects Joff for the crime, conluding his nephew, at one time, owned the offending weapon:


Tyrion was staring at his nephew with his mismatched eyes. “Perhaps a knife, sire. To match your sword. A dagger of the same fine Valyrian steel... with a dragonbone hilt, say?”
Joff gave him a sharp look. “You... yes, a dagger to match my sword, good.” He nodded. “A... a gold hilt with rubies in it. Dragonbone is too plain.”



However, this might be the same trap Jamie fell into.... just because Joff OWNED that dagger, it doesnt neccessarily folloew that he hired the catspaw. Mance is quite clearly a hustler of the highest order, a plain faced, 'mediocre' looking man who has accumulated so much power. He is a player of the highest order and a trickster.

He could have WON that dagger off Joff in a bet. He could have stolen it from his person. He could have blackmailed Joff after witnessing him doing something untoward. Joff might be seriously ashamed that he was disarmed, one way or another, by a crusty travelling singer.

Joffs slight embarassment/recognition/suprise/anger  to Tyrions assertion might just be that his embarrassing secret regarding the loss of the blade might be out. Joff might actually know nothing about the catspaw, and this is one of George's clever diversions.Thats my idea anyway.

Also, we here the catspaw say....“You weren’t s’posed to be here,”
There was a plan, a well conceived/thought out plan to this. Bran was lucky Cat was so obsessive in her care for him. Ask yourself... is Joff really capable of instigating such a plan???Does he know winterfell so well, or is he preoccupied with petty squabbles i the training yard.

Netherthless, Joff was never *directly* confronted (he died too soon), and the way this quite speculative explanation was given to the reader as a 'fact' got my spider senses tingling. I think there's another twist/layer to this story that we've all long forgotton about.

So, we learned Mance Rayder was right there, in Winterfell at the time of the Kings trip to see Ned. Mance Rayder even ate at the feast, watching indisguise as a musician. He claims he wanted to se the King, but perhaps he really wanted to see Ned and Winterfell. Maybe he never wanted to be the King of Westeros at all, but the King of the North and ruler of Winterfell.

We still dont know too much about him and his motives, very enigmatic. We know he's very very cunning and clever enough to be a 'game player'.  If he wanted to cause serious unrest among the Stark camp, be might have tried to have Bran killed. Or, he might have wanted the catspaw to FAIL on purpose, so Bran lived, but war was sparked. Funnily enough that catspaw was a MAJOR trigger in the downfall of house Stark.

Being a musician hanging around the Kings/Joffs carriages, could he have grabbed the valyrian dagger? This would be perfect as it would frame a Lannister as the killer and start a battle the starks could only lose from.

Being a trickster, would it of been hard to find a catspaw, and vanish away, regardless of the consequences - leaving behing carnage and a weakened Winterfell? Knowing from afar that he's pushed a major domino.

Did Mance want to cross the wall to take winterfell?? Was Jon Snow left to live because he saw him as a pawn in his game?? Does he have premonitions, and can therefore play this game better than anybody had imagined.

Now Mance is in Winterfell and we have received a VERY strange letter - is it his work???

I put the words Mance Rayder into 'ANAGRAMMER'... (for finding DERIVATIVE anagrams)

The best match that doesnt have any non-used letters is MERCENARY

If this is a clue...
who is Mance working for?
Did he really do the catspaw?
Did he actually want the catspaw to fail, so Bran lived, but was was sparked?
Did he get captured on puropse?
Did he know the future already?

Can anyone think of supporting evidence?


My conclusion....

Mance purposefully formented the Stark war, pushing pawns like Littlefinger/Varys. He tried to castpaw Bran, maybe even knowing it would fail. I suspect the combination of Stannis and Mance (not a 'purposeful' alliance, just coincidental) have driven/tricked the Boltons out of Winterfell, to go to the Dreadfort. IIRC Mance still has a RUBY and if he knows how to glamour can pull off serious tricks. I think he might want Jon to deliver a garrison to his new Castle/Throne, and knows Jons weaknesses enough to manipulate him to bring his rightful army of Wildlings to his doorstep.



Thanks for reading, and BTW i'm a huge Mance 'the mercenary' fan.

Edited by yolkboy, 07 August 2012 - 09:55 AM.

[Ghost of Groat]

You address Jamie's reasoning but not Tyrion's.  The whole bit at Joff's wedding when Tyrion suggests a Valyrian steel dagger and Joff's reaction "you..." satisfies me that it was Joff.

Can you explain the interchange, vis a vis dagger, at Joff's wedding?

Edited by Ghost of Groat, 07 August 2012 - 06:57 AM.

[yolkboy]

Ghost of Groat, on 07 August 2012 - 06:54 AM, said:

You address Jamie's resoning but not Tyrion's.  The whole bit at Joff's wedding when Tyrion suggests a Valyrian steel dagger and Joff's reaction "you..." satisfies me that it was Joff.

Can you explain the interchange re dagger at Joff's wedding?

Ghost you're completely right, sorry i'd forgotten about that moment, i'll have to find  and look at it again before i post. I'll be non commital until ive looked at it closely.
More interestingly, could YOU fit that event into the idea that Mance pulled this one off, even if just speculative? Is there any room to breathe in that scene?
Will look at the scene this afternoon! Thanks for noticing!

..................................................................................................................................................................

EDIT: That part is now fixed and edited into the OP.

Edited by yolkboy, 07 August 2012 - 08:07 AM.

[Peasant Rebel Leader]

I can certainly see Mance not just going to Winterfell for fun and trolling the Starks. I can see him having different motives and trying to weaken the North to make his "invasion" successful. After the wedding he will immediately begin pulling all the wildlings together after all, right?

But why would he have all that knowledge on the Game of Thrones being played way in the South? The North and especially beyond the wall is isolated a lot. How long after the feast did he stay in Winterfell? Did he see the fall and then why target Bran? Just because it's an easy target? If I tried an assassination attempt, I would've targeted Robb first I guess.

So I do see him doing something else, but trying to assassinate Bran? I don't see how he could've known how big the repercussions from that would be?

[Ghost of Groat]

From SoS scene Joff's big wedding bash.

Quote

“Have a care, Your Grace,” Ser Addam Marbrand warned the king. “Valyrian steel is perilously sharp.”
“I remember.” Joffrey brought Widow’s Wail down in a savage twohanded slice, onto the book that Tyrion had given him. The heavy leather cover parted at a stroke.
...
“Sharp! I told you, I am no stranger to Valyrian steel.”
...
Tyrion was staring at his nephew with his mismatched eyes. “Perhaps a knife, sire. To match your sword. A dagger of the same fine Valyrian steel . . . with a dragonbone hilt, say?”
Joff gave him a sharp look. “You . . . yes, a dagger to match my sword, good.” He nodded. “A . . . a gold hilt with rubies in it. Dragonbone is too plain.”

I inferred that Joff's experience with Valyrian steel came from the dagger he stole from his father's Robert's cache of weapons.  I also gathered that the unfinished sentence that begins, "you...", would have continued, "you knew? but how?"

So I don't disprove your theory with this at all.  I would just like to see what other explanations there might be for this interchange.

Edited by Ghost of Groat, 07 August 2012 - 07:40 AM.

[Arya Targaryen]

Mance was under guest right, and he seems to me like a true northener, who takes guestright seriously. No way he did that to Bran.

[yolkboy]

Ghost of Groat, on 07 August 2012 - 06:54 AM, said:

You address Jamie's reasoning but not Tyrion's.  The whole bit at Joff's wedding when Tyrion suggests a Valyrian steel dagger and Joff's reaction "you..." satisfies me that it was Joff.

Can you explain the interchange, vis a vis dagger, at Joff's wedding?

I have edited my thoughts on this into the original post!

[yolkboy]

Arya Targaryen, on 07 August 2012 - 07:33 AM, said:

Mance was under guest right, and he seems to me like a true northener, who takes guestright seriously. No way he did that to Bran.

Mance and his spearwives had been doing quite a number on the guest rights with the boltons.
Besides, Mance could have moved on far and away when he hired the catspaw, so the guest right would be irrelevant. As far as i'm aware, the catspaw didnt break bread at any point either.



PS ive added a conclusion

Edited by yolkboy, 07 August 2012 - 08:10 AM.

[winterbird]

Yeah I can't see it being Mance's work namely because of the way it was handled.  It was a bad plan and didn't work because it was a bad plan.  Mance who had been close to Vymar Sixskins would have recognized all the Stark kids as wargs right away and probably would not have underestimated the wolves in the castle.

Don't forget the story Mance tells us about the singer who went to winterfell and wood the girl etc.  I can't remember the exact wording or what happened, but I get the feeling that Mance was doing a quiet infiltration not an "invasion."  He was probably scoping things out for his future plans.  He seems to be one who plans things out not one who acts rashly.

[Arya Targaryen]

I don't know, I don't think Mance could have done that to a 7-year-old boy, who may die anyway, just to cause problems. He doesn't like Starks, but he seems to have some respect for them. * fangirl mode off*

[Jayce]

Interesting Theory, though I can see that this might be an option I just can't see why at present.

yolkboy, on 07 August 2012 - 06:35 AM, said:

The best match that doesnt have any non-used letters is MERCENARY

This doesn't use one A or a D. Mance Rayder is 11 letters and Mercenary is only 9.

Edited by Jayce, 07 August 2012 - 08:10 AM.

[butterbumps!]

No.  For so many reasons.

1.  Mance actually respects the Starks, even if it's thought that he doesn't like them (I get the idea between the lines that he actually does kind of like them though).
2.  Joff would never deign to talk to a nameless traveler at a feast.  
3.  It's established that Mance snuck into Winterfell so that when he shows up later and sees Jeyne Poole, he knows it's not Arya because she's already seen the real Arya.
4.  Mance is not the sort of man who would kill a bedridden child; Joff is, though.
5.  Mance is not the sort of man who gets involved with needlessly stupid/ cruel plans.
6.  He is NOT in league with Varys or Littlefinger.
7.  He does not care what goes on in KL.
8.  Mance is way too smart to come up with an idea this stupid.

[Foxhound]

yolkboy, on 07 August 2012 - 07:49 AM, said:

Mance and his spearwives had been doing quite a number on the guest rights with the boltons.

You could argue that since the Bolton's have no legitimate claim on Winterfell and are essentially squatters, Mance isn't really their guest and owes them nothing.

[yolkboy]

winterbird, on 07 August 2012 - 07:56 AM, said:

I get the feeling that Mance was doing a quiet infiltration not an "invasion."  He was probably scoping things out for his future plans.  He seems to be one who plans things out not one who acts rashly.

Well my idea is he's pushing a pawn now in order to pull off a grander scheme later.

With regards to it being a bad plan... that might have been on purpose... to spark a stark war but without actually killing Bran. Mance might be too smart to make mistakes, and his mistakes might be misdirections.

BTW i added a conclusion and another part to the op, i dunno if you saw that.

[yolkboy]

Jayce, on 07 August 2012 - 08:09 AM, said:

Interesting Theory, though I can see that this might be an option I just can't see why at present.



This doesn't use one A or a D. Mance Rayder is 11 letters and Mercenary is only 9.

Thats why it is a DERIVATIVE anagram, as i stated!!!!

[Peasant Rebel Leader]

I dislike the notion that Mance couldn't have done it out of the kindness of his heart. I mean killing a innocent boy. But he has political reasons, and there are many more innocent boys back at his "realm" he wants to safe by bringing them over the wall away from the White Walkers. So if killing this boy allowed to distract the North to increase his chances in crossing the Wall, he would've done it. The question is how far this plan had hatched already, with him later searching for that horn in the Frostfangs. I don't think he did it, it's too far-fetched as a plan to create unrest in the North and the warg powers might have been known to Mance, but he certainly wouldn't have hold back because it's a kid. Joffs motivation was cruelty (or compassion or trying to impress Robert), Mance's would've been political ones. Quite a difference.

[yolkboy]

Foxhound, on 07 August 2012 - 08:14 AM, said:

You could argue that since the Bolton's have no legitimate claim on Winterfell and are essentially squatters, Mance isn't really their guest and owes them nothing.

You could argue that. Doesnt mean Mance didnt come up with a way to avoid guest rights with the catspaw. Actaully, all he had to do was leave Winterfell and hire an incompitant assasin.

[Tagganaro]

If Mance wanted a child dead, he'd do it himself.  If Mance wanted a child dead, the child would most surely be dead, and not the victim of some hare-brained scheme that was never going to succeed.  That is Joffrey's style however.

If Mance wanted to be King in the North, he'd already be it by now.  He'd kick Ned's ass and then be done with it.

Mance would never violate guest right (unless you had it coming like the Bolton's) and Mance is too fond of the Starks to do something like that (witness his obsession with the Bael the Bard story and him giving Jon 100 second-chances).

In short, I disagree that Mance would ever be involved with something like this and we have too much evidence to the contrary to not pin it on Joffrey.  Sometimes a spade is just a spade.  And sometimes an incredibly dumb plan to kill someone is just the result of a dumb and malicious kid trying to please his dumb, distant, uncaring father.  Mance would kindly ask you to not defame him and his flawless, thoroughly awesome name .

[yolkboy]

Tagganaro, on 07 August 2012 - 09:10 AM, said:

If Mance wanted a child dead, he'd do it himself.  If Mance wanted a child dead, the child would most surely be dead, and not the victim of some hare-brained scheme that was never going to succeed.  That is Joffrey's style however.

As i've said, maybe he didnt want to kill Bran, but make a purposefully foiled attempt he knew would spark the Stark War. Do i have to repeat myself or is this you derailing the thread?

If Mance wanted to be King in the North, he'd already be it by now.  He'd kick Ned's ass and then be done with it.

Given his army were behind a 7 Hundred foot magic ice wall at the time , and considering Neds alliances with the North and Robert, i dont think it would have been that simple. Winterfell is quite a formidable fortess when manned, IIRC.

Mance would never violate guest right (unless you had it coming like the Bolton's) and Mance is too fond of the Starks to do something like that (witness his obsession with the Bael the Bard story and him giving Jon 100 second-chances).

Again I have explained that Mance would simply have to leave winterfell and find an incompetant assasin to escape guest right.

In short, I disagree that Mance would ever be involved with something like this and we have too much evidence to the contrary to not pin it on Joffrey.  

The evidence on Joffrey is certainly not infallible, as i've explained.

From now on, i won't be answering questions by people who havent read the OP properly, this only serves to derail the conversation. There's people in these forums who 'dislike' the premise/assertion of an arguement and so seek to derail threads. If we want to discover new possible secrets, we need to ask NEW questions, which i believe i've done here. In some threads i answer the SAME identical question over an over, this isnt fair for any Thread makers.

Thanks.

Edited by yolkboy, 07 August 2012 - 09:35 AM.

[DragonSpawn]

The symbolism is well beyond coincidence... and completely rules out Joff IMO

If Bran is a champion of Ice for example - descended from the Kings of Winter... starting a fire and then using a Dragonsteel dagger with Dragonbone hilt sounds to me like the start of the Ice vs Fire war... Joff's reactions to Tyrion in particular doesn't really give any clarity either way... the Valyrian steel he has encountered before could be a reference to anything or even Ice... the sword he instructued Ser Illyn to chop off Neds head with... His reaction to Tyrion seemed confused not guilty... asking for a more elaborate hilt fits the typical Lannister approach to life... dragonbone seems poor and it's maybe even insulting to offer such a thing to a King (especially Joff) ... i've heard all the arguments before and while it's nice to hear a new angle, I agree that if Mance wanted Bran dead ... he would be dead... although i have added him to my list of possibles anyway since there is not other clear evidence on this subject... (in order of likliness)

• Littlefinger & Varys
  
• Cersei
  
• Varys
  
• Mance
  
• Joff
  
• Ser Illyn
  
• Roose
  
• Benjen

Edited by DragonSpawn, 07 August 2012 - 10:03 AM.