The Pink Letter is a forgery by Alliser Thorne

[Howlin' Howland Reed]

Apart from the repeated use of the word bastard, it is plausible that Ramsay is indeed the author. Back then when I read it, I was surprised he knew that Abel is Mance. But a spearwife might have told him. The only thing I found really odd was the timing of the letter. It was just perfect to be plausible.

Why Ramsay would want to use the word 'bastard' has been effectively argued upthread by Buried Treasure. And it's not hard, as you also suggest, to imagine that the true identity of Abel might have been slipped by one of the spearwives while Ramsay was in the process of turning them into a cloak.

As for the bolded part, I agree. That's why I think it is partly a load of bullshit, written in desperation, which makes the timing issue go away.

EDIT:

So Thorne is at large with ravens.

Have completely forgotten that the rangers had ravens with them. Still, if Thorne sent the letter, from north of the Wall, it begs the question of how he knew about the escaped bride and Reek and the six spearwives and Mance. Another explanation offered, was that some co-conspirator told him after he'd covertly made his way back --- but that begs the question of why it has to be Thorne, and not some co-conspirator or other, who wrote the letter. Surely not because of the liberal use of the word 'bastard'?

[shadowbinding shoe]

Why Ramsay would want to use the word 'bastard' has been effectively argued upthread by Buried Treasure. And it's not hard, as you also suggest, to imagine that the true identity of Abel might have been slipped by one of the spearwives while Ramsay was in the process of turning them into a cloak.

As for the bolded part, I agree. That's why I think it is partly a load of bullshit, written in desperation, which makes the timing issue go away.

EDIT:

Have completely forgotten that the rangers had ravens with them. Still, if Thorne sent the letter, from north of the Wall, it begs the question of how he knew about the escaped bride and Reek and the six spearwives and Mance. Another explanation offered, was that some co-conspirator told him after he'd covertly made his way back --- but that begs the question of why it has to be Thorne, and not some co-conspirator or other, who wrote the letter. Surely not because of the liberal use of the word 'bastard'?

About the timing, I think it would be much simpler to assume that Ramsay already sent the letter a while ago (and we don't notice it because their stories are told from separate POVs). When the conspirators, who have control over Castle's Black's rookery, see the letters they open it and decide to use it to push Jon at just the right time. We know wax-glued letters can be opened without leaving telltale marks (using a hot knife) or we can assume the seal is not the original seal and that's why it's just a blob of wax (my only gripe with this idea is that pink wax sounds like a high end commodity that would be impossible to find at Castle's Black whereabouts.

So they kept the letter until they were ready and then gave it to Jon.

[dtones520]

About the timing, I think it would be much simpler to assume that Ramsay already sent the letter a while ago (and we don't notice it because their stories are told from separate POVs). When the conspirators, who have control over Castle's Black's rookery, see the letters they open it and decide to use it to push Jon at just the right time. We know wax-glued letters can be opened without leaving telltale marks (using a hot knife) or we can assume the seal is not the original seal and that's why it's just a blob of wax (my only gripe with this idea is that pink wax sounds like a high end commodity that would be impossible to find at Castle's Black whereabouts.

So they kept the letter until they were ready and then gave it to Jon.

They couldnt have had the letter that long, as timelines would get way out of wack. Also, there is travel time for the raven from Winterfell to the Wall, so there is already a lag in events.

Also, Thorne doesn't seem like someone who is going to break his vows to the Watch. Him leaving his ranging to do that and go to Winterfell or team up with Ramsay would be Oathbreaking and, as much as I hate him, I can't see Ser Alliser doing that.

[fassreiter]

The theory that the letter was written by Thorne only works if Thorne had been at Winterfell at some point. It is highly unlikely that he could have somehow stumbled upon the information that Mance was not dead, but trying to rescue Arya at Winterfell. If he had gone to Winterfell, however, he would have been able to identify Mance, as he was present at 'his' execution. But there are many points that don't add up, among them a motive, a way to come back from beyond the Wall unnoticed, and the mention of 'my Reek'.

After we know the casting decision for Mance Rayder on the show, I am more convinced than ever that the letter was written by Ramsay. I can't imagine the show people would want to go through with the plot in ADWD with this old guy they casted, so I think they asked GRRM if he had any more major plans for the character, and he probably said no, he is going to die at Winterfell anyway (so in the show he will die in the battle for the Wall). The letter fits with what we saw happening at the end of Theon I in ADWD. It fits Ramsay in style and tone. It would be a ridiculous plot device if everything it said was a lie (and we know the part where the letter is wrong will most likely concern Stannis, so there has to be some truth to it) or used in a complicated conspiracy on top of the stabbing (you can either have an elaborate conspiracy or an attack, but to come up with a conspiracy based on a letter no one even knows will ever be read aloud is not very convincing, and as a plot element it is rendered even more useless if it is followed by a seperate conspiracy to attack and kill Jon). The letter makes sense if we assume that Ramsay is trying to get his fake wife back by threatening Jon, and that he was fooled by Stannis into believing he is dead, with the fake magic sword as proof.

[shadowbinding shoe]

My suggestion was that Thorne had nothing to do with it. Just the conspirators decided to open the letters and then delayed giving it to Jon for a few days until they're ready or perhaps they wanted to see how he would react to it and his decision made sure they went on with their plan.

[Buried Treasure]

Still only works if Clydas was in on the conspiracy - he's the one that receives all the ravens at Castle Black. Clydas is too minor for his character to be firmly established but he does not seem a consprirator type to me, if anything I'd think he seems loyal to Jon. The only basis for thinking that Clydas was a conspirator that I have seen argued is that he had a felt negatively about the letter before it was opened, supposedly implying he already knew the contents, but as Jon himself shared that bad feeling that argument falls down.

[The Great Cornholio!]

Possiblities:

1. Mance wrote the letter. It was encypted in some type of code. Does Mance know how to read and write well?
   
   
2. Ramsey wrote the letter. He's a psychopathic idiot. Does he know how to read and write? He is a bastard, and not priority for education.
   
   
3. One of the Spearwives wrote the letter. Unlikely, because I'm not sure they knew how to read and write.
   
   
4. Thorne wrote it. Unlikely because he's on the other side of the wall (dead or alive).
   

Any that I forgot?

[Ser Lepus]

Possiblities:

1. Mance wrote the letter. It was encypted in some type of code. Does Mance know how to read and write well?
   
   
2. Ramsey wrote the letter. He's a psychopathic idiot. Does he know how to read and write? He is a bastard, and not priority for education.
   
   
3. One of the Spearwives wrote the letter. Unlikely, because I'm not sure they knew how to read and write.
   
   
4. Thorne wrote it. Unlikely because he's on the other side of the wall (dead or alive).
   

Any that I forgot?

Even if Mance and/or Ramsay can't write, they can find somebody to do so for them.

[andrew_]

if alliser did write it, how does he know about reek? its not exactly common knowledge, whoever wrote it, must be in winterfell. I think your just overthinking it, Ramsay wrote it, hence the pink wax of House Bolton

[shadowbinding shoe]

Still only works if Clydas was in on the conspiracy - he's the one that receives all the ravens at Castle Black. Clydas is too minor for his character to be firmly established but he does not seem a consprirator type to me, if anything I'd think he seems loyal to Jon. The only basis for thinking that Clydas was a conspirator that I have seen argued is that he had a felt negatively about the letter before it was opened, supposedly implying he already knew the contents, but as Jon himself shared that bad feeling that argument falls down.

Wasn't Clydas one of the NW men who stabbed Jon?

[Buried Treasure]

Only Bowen Marsh and Whittlestick are named during the attack. In the Shieldhall Left Hand Lew (GRRM loves that pun doesn't he!) and Alf of Runnymead are named as sitting with the two of them so they are probably meant to be taken as the other two attackers.

Clydas is not young (sixty if a day) and half-blind and probably wouldn't make a good assailant even if he were a consprirator. Jon visits him in his chambers the night after 'Mance' is burned and he shuffles to his door. Clydas was Maester Aemon's servant for years and I think his loyalty was to him, as Aemon trusted Jon I think Clydas does too.

[The Great Cornholio!]

Even if Mance and/or Ramsay can't write, they can find somebody to do so for them.

Yeah but we're talking about a limited amount of people. this was kinda a covert op.

[Howlin' Howland Reed]

Ramsay can write. Or at least, it's pretty much certain that he penned the letter which Asha reads in "The Wayward Bride" chapter. Mance may have been tutored during his Night's Watch years, but that's much less certain.

edit:

(In any case, people can be forced by other people to write letters.) <- you've already addressed this, I guess.

[MtnLion]

When the commander at Eastwatch takes the ships north to attempt a rescue, he leaves a sympathetic to Thorne man in charge. Is it possible that Thorne took shelter in Eastwatch shortly after leaving Castle Black on his ranging? I would think so. From there he can make a trek to Winterfell, even in the storm, and back. The reason he may have done so is to ensure that the Warden of the North would not object to he and a handful of conspirators taking action against Jon. At Winterfell he has the opportunity to talk with Ramsay and Roose, and observe Abel. I don't think that anti-Stark factions are not in communication, as most seem to think. We even witness Roose and Tywinn exchanging raven mail, but are not let in that they are communicating with each other to plan the Red Wedding. Thorne setting up to assassinate Jon would require some support from outside the Night's Watch.

[Dyntia]

Do we know that the letter was done in maesters ink?

The two readers were Jon and Tormund. Tormund can't write and got little contact to letters before this one. I don't know if he could identify ink from blood on a letter.

The other one is Jon. He already has received a letter from Ramsay once (at the same time Asha did). In said chapter he refers to the blood as ink, too.

Anyway - Jon already knows Ramsays letters. Shouldn't he notice if something was odd about the second one?

Possiblities:

1. Mance wrote the letter. It was encypted in some type of code. Does Mance know how to read and write well?
   
   
2. Ramsey wrote the letter. He's a psychopathic idiot. Does he know how to read and write? He is a bastard, and not priority for education.
   
   
3. One of the Spearwives wrote the letter. Unlikely, because I'm not sure they knew how to read and write.
   
   
4. Thorne wrote it. Unlikely because he's on the other side of the wall (dead or alive).
   

Any that I forgot?

5. Roose Bolton, to get Jon and Ramsay out of the way, both.

6. Stannis, to warn Jon and get his help.

7. Theon Greyjoy/Asha Greyjoy.

8. Melisandre.

However only some of these have all the information included in the letter. These characters are Mance and, if they torture Mance and the spearwifes, Ramsay and Roose.

Theon got most of the information (we don't know if he knows who Abel is) and he knows Ramsay well. Thanks to him, Stannis and Asha have access to this information, too.

The others are highly unlikely, because they don't have the information we know to be true. Melisandre might see something in her fires, but as far as we know that doesn't necessarily include sounds. So while she might has seen everything else in her flames (and we don't know if she did), she could have problems with knowing about "Reek" being Theons nickname.

The conspirators have none of these information, unless there was send a letter to them, lately.

And Thorne? Now that is no more than crackpot. Jons chapters indicate that he is north of the Wall. We have no hints that he is/was at Winterfell. (Yes, there is the hooded man, but he can be almost everyone, right now.) What we know is, that he is at least somewhat loyal to the NW.

[Buried Treasure]

When the commander at Eastwatch takes the ships north to attempt a rescue, he leaves a sympathetic to Thorne man in charge. Is it possible that Thorne took shelter in Eastwatch shortly after leaving Castle Black on his ranging? I would think so. From there he can make a trek to Winterfell, even in the storm, and back. The reason he may have done so is to ensure that the Warden of the North would not object to he and a handful of conspirators taking action against Jon. At Winterfell he has the opportunity to talk with Ramsay and Roose, and observe Abel. I don't think that anti-Stark factions are not in communication, as most seem to think. We even witness Roose and Tywinn exchanging raven mail, but are not let in that they are communicating with each other to plan the Red Wedding. Thorne setting up to assassinate Jon would require some support from outside the Night's Watch.

In the chapter Jon sends out Thorne Cottor Pyke was still at Eastwatch, it would not be for weeks (or months - I'm not sure of the timeline) until Hewett got left in charge at Eastwatch. Thorne could not have known to make for there as the plan to travel to Hardholme (never mind Pyke to command) had not even been hatched, Hardholme is first mentioned in the chapter Val leaves to search for Tormund and Jon receives word Pyke has sailed in the same chapter Tormund arrives.

[Jon Reborn]

They couldnt have had the letter that long, as timelines would get way out of wack. Also, there is travel time for the raven from Winterfell to the Wall, so there is already a lag in events.

Also, Thorne doesn't seem like someone who is going to break his vows to the Watch. Him leaving his ranging to do that and go to Winterfell or team up with Ramsay would be Oathbreaking and, as much as I hate him, I can't see Ser Alliser doing that.

Maybe Ramsay or Roose offered Thorne an out from the Watch.

[thelivingocean]

The wording of the letter captures Ramsay's personality completely. I think it would feel cheap if it wasn't him who wrote it.

[redriver]

The wording of the letter captures Ramsay's personality completely. I think it would feel cheap if it wasn't him who wrote it.

The letter is designed to sound like Ramsay,the reader is meant to believe it is Ramsay.Because it was written by someone who has observed Ramsay at close quarters,-Mance.

Mance is a singer and actor,the type who can pick up on the mannerisms of others quickly.I have no doubt he can write,he would have been taught as a boy,for the possibility of becoming a steward in the NW.

But certain phrases in the letter are pure Mance.

"I'm done with these bloody fools".Rattleshirt tapped the ruby at his wrist."Ask your red witch,bastard."

"No",the wildling grinned at him through a mouth of brown and broken teeth."He burned the man he had to burn,for all the world to see."

Both from ADWD.And there are many more through the books.

But why would Mance pretend to be Ramsay?I think Mance's motives are to get Jon to Winterfell where he belongs and to let the wildlings know their king is still alive.

He knows Jon won't leave the Wall unless sorely provoked,so that's what he does.

[The Great Cornholio!]

The letter is designed to sound like Ramsay,the reader is meant to believe it is Ramsay.Because it was written by someone who has observed Ramsay at close quarters,-Mance.

Mance is a singer and actor,the type who can pick up on the mannerisms of others quickly.I have no doubt he can write,he would have been taught as a boy,for the possibility of becoming a steward in the NW.

But certain phrases in the letter are pure Mance.

"I'm done with these bloody fools".Rattleshirt tapped the ruby at his wrist."Ask your red witch,bastard."

"No",the wildling grinned at him through a mouth of brown and broken teeth."He burned the man he had to burn,for all the world to see."

Both from ADWD.And there are many more through the books.

But why would Mance pretend to be Ramsay?I think Mance's motives are to get Jon to Winterfell where he belongs and to let the wildlings know their king is still alive.

He knows Jon won't leave the Wall unless sorely provoked,so that's what he does.

I would say it was almost a reek letter. It was completly nuerotic.