80 replies to this topic

[Black Wolf Smith]

bemused, on 25 August 2012 - 11:12 AM, said:

We've seen davos writing letters to his wife and sons..I'm sure they could think of having him write one for Stannis ..including some detail only Stannis and Davos would know...

agreed.
I think that Manderly is smart enought to have Davos write a letter and put is Hand seal on it before departing for the Skaggos. I also think that Manderly has gotten word. He seem to change in the last we saw of him. He wanted out of WF, so I don't think that he would go running towards Stannis without some plan in place.

[Ciazio]

Black Wolf Smith, on 27 August 2012 - 05:09 PM, said:

agreed.
I think that Manderly is smart enought to have Davos write a letter and put is Hand seal on it before departing for the Skaggos. I also think that Manderly has gotten word. He seem to change in the last we saw of him. He wanted out of WF, so I don't think that he would go running towards Stannis without some plan in place.

The more I read the topic's title the more I ask myself two different questions:

• WILL Manderly prove that Davos is alive?
  
• WHEN will Manderly prove that Davos is alive?

1) If Manderly actually wanted to join Stannis (so if answer n°1 were YES), Lord Lard would need to find an adequate time to do so.
2) Moreover, he needs to do it ASAP, because the two armies are going to clash...

HOW to prove Davos' survival would then be a somehow "minor" problem.

[Frey Pie]

Well Stannis wont turn Manderly away for killing Davos if he does bend the knee to him. Stannis isnt stupid enough to turn away the 5000 to 10000 spears Manderly can offer up. He just wont like Wyman very much, which i doubt he would anyway. He would have no respect for the fattest man in Westeros.

However there is always Robett Glover to back him up, Wex, and he can divulge his plan to Stannis also. It may not be complete evidence but Westeros doesnt seem to need that much. Who confirmed Farya was the real Arya?

[Tall-Talker]

Ciazio, on 27 August 2012 - 05:50 PM, said:

The more I read the topic's title the more I ask myself two different questions:

• WILL Manderly prove that Davos is alive?
  
  
• WHEN will Manderly prove that Davos is alive?

1) If Manderly actually wanted to join Stannis (so if answer n°1 were YES), Lord Lard would need to find an adequate time to do so.
2) Moreover, he needs to do it ASAP, because the two armies are going to clash...

HOW to prove Davos' survival would then be a somehow "minor" problem.

One of the reasons of asking this question is because it seems to me that the two armies are about to face each other. Given Stannis' personality he'll want Manderly to pay for the betrayal of not joining him when he asked.

Say Manderly surrenders or gets captured by Stannis' forces he'll want to prove he was playing Bolton all along before Stannis thinks that Manderly is just trying to talk his way out of some punishment.

Edited by Tall-Talker, 27 August 2012 - 06:29 PM.

[the Scorpion Knight]

how about killing freys

[ThePrinceOfSunspear]

He'll might have a letter from Davos written to Stannis and reveal only after he's turned against those rats called House Frey.....

[Ciazio]

the Scorpion Knight, on 27 August 2012 - 07:01 PM, said:

how about killing freys

That would be the perfect "how", but... His knights should betray the Freys on their road to Stannis, not when they are rushing toward to fight. That would be the worst choice if you wanted to avoid casualities between "soon-to-be friends".

Is Manderly in the position to betray the Freys during the march? He's not  there personally and, as far as we know, he didn't tell anyone of his commanders about his plans. Wyman doesn't even know if Davos returned Rickon to WH.

Betraying the Freys while marching would be a huge gamble for Lord Lard. Anyhoo... Freys and Manderlys don't even know where Stannis is camped, they believe is outside the walls, not in the crofter's village.

I sense a GRRMartinesque twist here... I fear that Manderly is not going to save the day as he planned, Roose's order to march for battle changed his plans too quickly.

The only way he would defeat the Freys and save Stannis is if the HM were Robett Glover, infiltrating Winterfell to tell Wyman that Davos is back and then going south with WH's army, leading the betrayal against the weasels.

[Teak]

I'm interested to see how Davos convinces Osha and Rickon to come with him in the first place...seems like a tough sell.

[Tall-Talker]

Teak, on 28 August 2012 - 10:11 AM, said:

I'm interested to see how Davos convinces Osha and Rickon to come with him in the first place...seems like a tough sell.

Good point. Didn't think about that. I'm pretty sure that Osha has become very protective of Rickon and it may take a lot of persuasion since neither know Davos. My guess is if they refuse to go with him the only two options I can think of that may lead them to go with him is (A) The Others have reached Skagos and they must escape. ( B ) Bran tells Osha to go with Davos.

Edited by Tall-Talker, 28 August 2012 - 10:44 AM.

[Rhaegar Targaryen's Ghost]

If Manderly crushes the freys with the help of the umbers, then I dont think stannis can be too mad about him killing Davos. Then, when Manderly is like "oh your welcome for beating your enemies, by the way Davos is alive, he'll be back soon with the key to the north. youre welcome. Now give me twenty pounds of bacon and we'll call it even.

[irishtemper]

Does anyone recall if Stannis remarks on Davos losing his "luck" (fingerbone pouch around his neck) after they retreated to Dragonstone and Davos was found shipwrecked and brought back?

If so then Manderly could show Stannis the fingerbones from the guy he actually killed instead of Davos to prove that it really wasn't Davos that they killed as they had to make a double to kill off.

But then again they could have just cut those fingerbones off of anyone to try and float this story past Stannis and I just don't see him buying anything like that.  Davos has to physically stand before Stannis for him to be convinced.

[ab aeterno]

Tall-Talker, on 28 August 2012 - 10:38 AM, said:

Good point. Didn't think about that. I'm pretty sure that Osha has become very protective of Rickon and it may take a lot of persuasion since neither know Davos. My guess is if they refuse to go with him the only two options I can think of that may lead them to go with him is (A) The Others have reached Skagos and they must escape. ( B ) Bran tells Osha to go with Davos.

@ Teak,

I was thinking along the same lines, good point.

@ Tall-Talker,

( B ) Presupposes that Bran would want them to go with Davos. Bran should know more about Stannis than we do, or maybe even Davos does, and perhaps about the Red Priests/Mel too. Considering that they are obsessed with fire, and want to burn the weirwoods, while the CoTF/Bloodraven are either nature worshipers or related to the Others, based upon the conventional and what seems to be the top revisionist theory, there's nothing to suggest that Bran would necessarily want them to go with Davos.

[ab aeterno]

Rhaegar Targaryen, on 28 August 2012 - 11:56 AM, said:

If Manderly crushes the freys with the help of the umbers, then I dont think stannis can be too mad about him killing Davos. Then, when Manderly is like "oh your welcome for beating your enemies, by the way Davos is alive, he'll be back soon with the key to the north. youre welcome. Now give me twenty pounds of bacon and we'll call it even.

I'm not sure, Stannis could just as easily view that sort of thing as simply the Manderlys defeating their own enemies, as they were avenging their men and Manderly's son who was killed at the RW. Even if it convinced Stannis that the Manderlys wanted to help him,  we know that  he wouldn't view that as making up for "killing" Davos, and it wouldn't necessarily be enough to convince him that they didn't kill Davos, he might just think that they are changing sides because they think the Boltons will lose. I can't see Stannis being convinced unless he sees Davos or some proof that Davos is alive.

[Ciazio]

Uhm... a bug: do we know if Stannis knows about Davos "death"?

I know that Manderly sent words to King's Landing, but there were the Lannisters. In his shoes I would do whatever I can to not let Stannis know. Alas, his Maester is a Lannister, so he might have noticed that ravens for Deepwood and the Wall were missing.

[ab aeterno]

Ciazio, on 28 August 2012 - 01:35 PM, said:

Uhm... a bug: do we know if Stannis knows about Davos "death"?

I know that Manderly sent words to King's Landing, but there were the Lannisters. In his shoes I would do whatever I can to not let Stannis know. Alas, his Maester is a Lannister, so he might have noticed that ravens for Deepwood and the Wall were missing.

Spoiler

Yes, from the Theon sample chapter.

Spoiler

"Lord Too-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse.  Too fat to come to me, yet he comes to Winterfell.  Too fat to bend the knee and swear me his sword, yet now he wields that sword for Bolton.  I sent my Onion Lord to treat with him, and Lord Too-Fat butchered him and mounted his head and hands on the walls of White Harbor for the Freys to gloat over.  And the Freys... has the Red Wedding been forgotten?"

Edited to include quote.

Edited by DCS1122, 28 August 2012 - 02:00 PM.

[Jaimeisnotazombie]

The thing is Stannis cant win without Manderly's support, outmaned not used to the land and weather.

Manderly will wait until he has word of Davos and Rickons safe return, and will defect to Stannis side.

Until then Manderly will continue to TROLL the Freys, which will cause a delay, as Roose will have to find away to get his armies on the same page. He will need for his armies to not be fighting eachother but fighting the enemies, rather straight forward right?

Stannis is all for the Stark in Winterfel, he tryed to give Winterfel to Jon.

[Black Wolf Smith]

Well what ever if Manderly's real purpose is (which have a theory) He is smart of enough too know that at some point he and his men might run in to Stannis. He had to have planned for it.

Davos, I think some how will be ok with Osha. Finding them on a very big Island might be.

[Teak]

@DCS1122 & Tall-Talker

I was thinking maybe Shaggydog licks Davos' hand to give him the OK. Or gives him some more "luck".

As to the main topic, I enjoy Lord Manderly.  He is obviously underestimated in Westeros.  I hope we as readers do not overestimate him, though.  His current circumstances are pretty shaky.  We left him minus a chin or two and surrounded by enemies in a besieged castle in a severe snowstorm.  I believe that if he can make it out of there, Stannis will believe his claims.

[Tharvot]

Why would Theon keep his mouth shut if he over-hears Manderly say that the Stark boy(s) still lives?

If Manderly wipes out the Freys, that will be proof enough for Stannis as to who is on his side and who isn't.  Manderly will likely let Stannis know what he is up to concerning Davos.  If Theon overhears that, then it will be up to him to confirm it.  If Theon is not in the room to hear that conversation, then Stannis will likely ask him about it and what reason would Theon have to lie.  His secret will be out finally and he will no longer have to endure the name "kinslayer."

[Lord Varys]

Manderly won't be at the battle. He can't ride, and he is severely hurt. Manderly and Stannis will only meet each other if Stannis takes Winterfell and if Manderly is still alive at this point.

Some of his knights - perhaps even his cousin whom we only met in the Davos chapters - will deliver Stannis a letter written and signed by both Manderly and Davos, and he'll swear an oath that Davos is still alive and on his way to Skagos.

This is likely going to happen either before the Battle of the Ice (the Manderly forces might actually take on and slaughter the Freys before they arrive at the village; then they'll delivering Stannis Hosteen Frey's head along with the letter) or afterwards (then the Manderlys will switch sides and butcher Freys during the battle).