405 replies to this topic

[DavosSeaworthy]

I doubt this series will get cancelled, if they havent cancelled True Blood, easily the worst show on TV, then how could they cancel a popular well written show.  All of the popular shows on HBO end because the production team, writers, creators, etc want to end the show.  I think this one will go the long haul.

[Alisa]

I'd be pissed if they cancelled the show before finising the series.  It's one thing cancelling a good show (which they do a lot!) but when you're adapting something you better bloody well finish it.

[oierem]

The hairy bear, on 03 September 2012 - 11:13 AM, said:

My prediction would be that we'll get five seasons that will, more or less, follow closely the books and then HBO will tell the producers that the next one should be the last. So they'll make up some final season mixing the information they received from George and ideas of their own.

I think that's the most likely scenario, but I hope they'll get to do two more seasons after the initial 5. Considering how ADWD ends, it would be REALLY difficult to close the series in just one season, so I hope they get two.

[oierem]

Alisa, on 03 September 2012 - 12:29 PM, said:

I'd be pissed if they cancelled the show before finising the series.  It's one thing cancelling a good show (which they do a lot!) but when you're adapting something you better bloody well finish it.

Well, the book series isnt' finished, and isn't going to be finished anytime soon so....

[Pellaeon]

DavosSeaworthy, on 03 September 2012 - 12:27 PM, said:

I doubt this series will get cancelled, if they havent cancelled True Blood, easily the worst show on TV, then how could they cancel a popular well written show.  All of the popular shows on HBO end because the production team, writers, creators, etc want to end the show.  I think this one will go the long haul.

Alisa, on 03 September 2012 - 12:29 PM, said:

I'd be pissed if they cancelled the show before finising the series.  It's one thing cancelling a good show (which they do a lot!) but when you're adapting something you better bloody well finish it.

Do you know why they cancelled House M.D., not because the series wasn't successfull anymore or to expensive, no they fear the series could be less successful in the future

[protar]

Pellaeon, on 03 September 2012 - 12:49 PM, said:

Do you know why they cancelled House M.D., not because the series wasn't successfull anymore or to expensive, no they fear the series could be less successful in the future

Well they have expressed regret at canceling shows prematurely on HBO, so I don't think there's any risk of that. They won't preemptively cancel such a popular show.

[Ewan]

6 Maybe?

Hope it is 8+ though like others are saying.

[Harle The Handsome]

Harry Potter, on 02 September 2012 - 05:54 PM, said:

I reckon there will be about 29 seasons altogether

Viserys, on 03 September 2012 - 04:02 AM, said:

What?

Clearly he thinks it is going to take a while to get Dany out of Mereen.

[Harry Potter]

I still stand by my estimate of 29 seasons.

Also, if the Series is catching up with the Books too quickly, they could always start showing a new season only every other year.

[akajea]

The series is fucked. I doubt GRRM will finish TWoW by the time the show needs the material. If miraculously he does, there is no way in hell ADoS will be ready in time.

So when the show is done with ADwD and TWoW is no where to be seen, what will they do? I guess there are their options:

• Cancel the show.
  
• Take a 1-2 year break. 1 year is possible. It would be unfortunate, and hurt the show's popularity though. 2 years I don't think is feasible.
  
• Continue on schedule. Make up their own content, then try and reconcile it with GRRM's narrative when it is available. Looking at season 2, this would be a disaster.
  
• Continue on schedule. Try and get GRRM to give them them early access to TWoW. The best option, if GRRM has a price.

Well, this headache is for 2014. Enjoy the show while you can.

[Khal-a-bunga]

akajea, on 04 September 2012 - 01:48 AM, said:

The series is fucked. I doubt GRRM will finish TWoW by the time the show needs the material. If miraculously he does, there is no way in hell ADoS will be ready in time.

So when the show is done with ADwD and TWoW is no where to be seen, what will they do? I guess there are their options:

• Cancel the show.
  
• Take a 1-2 year break. 1 year is possible. It would be unfortunate, and hurt the show's popularity though. 2 years I don't think is feasible.
  
• Continue on schedule. Make up their own content, then try and reconcile it with GRRM's narrative when it is available. Looking at season 2, this would be a disaster.
  
• Continue on schedule. Try and get GRRM to give them them early access to TWoW. The best option, if GRRM has a price.

Well, this headache is for 2014. Enjoy the show while you can.

I agree that the series is going to find itself in trouble if Martin doesn't release The Winds of Winter 'relatively' soon. I don't, however, think that that's an issue for 2014, considering D&D will only have finished the 'second half' of ASoS by that time.

There will still be AFfC & ADwD to contend with, which may end up buying them an additional one or two seasons, depending on how they decide to tackle that material. Hopefully, by that time, TWoW will have been released, and as I suspect it will be a book more in the vein of ASoS than the latest two books, event wise, that may give D&D more than one season to work with.

Regardless, the issue of A Dream of Spring will still be just that - an issue. We can hope that finishing TWoW and setting up his end game will give Martin more initiative (for lack of a better word) to do the same with ADoS, but that may be optimistic (then again, it may not).

My guess is that the only break the show will ever take will be the season/s that adapt the final book. Before that, D&D likely have enough material to go without taking any break.

2011 - AGoT
2012 - ACoK
2013 - ASoS pt. 1
2014 - ASoS pt. 2 + AFfC & ADwD (chronologically relevent material)
2015 - AFfC/ADwD pt. 1* (*may wrap those story lines up, but likely two seasons)
2016 - AFfC/ADwD pt. 2  + TWoW (the climax material removed from the book)

After that it becomes pure conjecture, but assuming TWoW requires more than one season, then we're looking at a total of eight seasons without including the final book (which may also require two seasons). Ten seasons does seem unlikely, but I wouldn't say it's impossible. There's a nice even number of episodes at 100 with ten seasons, anyway.

Edited by Khal-a-bunga, 04 September 2012 - 02:24 AM.

[Pellaeon]

Khal-a-bunga, on 04 September 2012 - 02:22 AM, said:

I agree that the series is going to find itself in trouble if Martin doesn't release The Winds of Winter 'relatively' soon. I don't, however, think that that's an issue for 2014, considering D&D will only have finished the 'second half' of ASoS by that time.

There will still be AFfC & ADwD to contend with, which may end up buying them an additional one or two seasons, depending on how they decide to tackle that material. Hopefully, by that time, TWoW will have been released, and as I suspect it will be a book more in the vein of ASoS than the latest two books, event wise, that may give D&D more than one season to work with.

Regardless, the issue of A Dream of Spring will still be just that - an issue. We can hope that finishing TWoW and setting up his end game will give Martin more initiative (for lack of a better word) to do the same with ADoS, but that may be optimistic (then again, it may not).

My guess is that the only break the show will ever take will be the season/s that adapt the final book. Before that, D&D likely have enough material to go without taking any break.

2011 - AGoT
2012 - ACoK
2013 - ASoS pt. 1
2014 - ASoS pt. 2 + AFfC & ADwD (chronologically relevent material)
2015 - AFfC/ADwD pt. 1* (*may wrap those story lines up, but likely two seasons)
2016 - AFfC/ADwD pt. 2  + TWoW (the climax material removed from the book)

After that it becomes pure conjecture, but assuming TWoW requires more than one season, then we're looking at a total of eight seasons without including the final book (which may also require two seasons). Ten seasons does seem unlikely, but I wouldn't say it's impossible. There's a nice even number of episodes at 100 with ten seasons, anyway.

After all it was abd idea to start a series before the books are finished

[akajea]

Khal-a-bunga, on 04 September 2012 - 02:22 AM, said:

I agree that the series is going to find itself in trouble if Martin doesn't release The Winds of Winter 'relatively' soon. I don't, however, think that that's an issue for 2014, considering D&D will only have finished the 'second half' of ASoS by that time.

There will still be AFfC & ADwD to contend with, which may end up buying them an additional one or two seasons, depending on how they decide to tackle that material. Hopefully, by that time, TWoW will have been released, and as I suspect it will be a book more in the vein of ASoS than the latest two books, event wise, that may give D&D more than one season to work with.

Regardless, the issue of A Dream of Spring will still be just that - an issue. We can hope that finishing TWoW and setting up his end game will give Martin more initiative (for lack of a better word) to do the same with ADoS, but that may be optimistic (then again, it may not).

My guess is that the only break the show will ever take will be the season/s that adapt the final book. Before that, D&D likely have enough material to go without taking any break.

2011 - AGoT
2012 - ACoK
2013 - ASoS pt. 1
2014 - ASoS pt. 2 + AFfC & ADwD (chronologically relevent material)
2015 - AFfC/ADwD pt. 1* (*may wrap those story lines up, but likely two seasons)
2016 - AFfC/ADwD pt. 2  + TWoW (the climax material removed from the book)

After that it becomes pure conjecture, but assuming TWoW requires more than one season, then we're looking at a total of eight seasons without including the final book (which may also require two seasons). Ten seasons does seem unlikely, but I wouldn't say it's impossible. There's a nice even number of episodes at 100 with ten seasons, anyway.

Well, I was thinking it would be:
2013 - 2/3 ASoS
2014 - 1/3 ASoS, 1/3 AFfC/ADwD
2015 - 2/3 AFfC/ADwD

If they have 2.x seasons for AFfC/ADwD, they could manage. They'd need TWoW in 2015, and it will likely be out in 2015.

But I realised, due to the 1.5-2 year gap between writing and release, GRRM could give TWoW to HBO in 2015, because the season based on it wouldn't actually be shown until 2017, and TWoW should definitely be released by then. And even if they do my scenario, with TWoW season in 2016, it should also work. So I agree with you now, that TWoW won't be a problem.

As for ADoS - well, if TWoW takes 2 seasons, 2016/2017 or 2017/2018, then the ADoS based seasons won't be until 2018/2019. If GRRM believed he could release ADoS before 2019, he could give HBO access in 2017. I don't think he'd bet on being able to finish before 2018 though. So whether they decide to give 1.x or 2.x seasons to AFfC/ADwD is key.

If AFfC/ADwD is given 2.x seasons, GRRM's glacial pace may not be a problem after all. Who would have thought?

Edited by akajea, 04 September 2012 - 02:56 AM.

[protar]

akajea, on 04 September 2012 - 02:49 AM, said:

Well, I was thinking it would be:
2013 - 2/3 ASoS
2014 - 1/3 ASoS, 1/3 AFfC/ADwD
2015 - 2/3 AFfC/ADwD

If they have 2.x seasons for AFfC/ADwD, they could manage. They'd need TWoW in 2015, and it will likely be out in 2015.

But I realised, due to the 1.5-2 year gap between writing and release, GRRM could give TWoW to HBO in 2015, because the season based on it wouldn't actually be shown until 2017, and TWoW should definitely be released by then. And even if they do my scenario, with TWoW season in 2016, it should also work. So I agree with you now, that TWoW won't be a problem.

As for ADoS - well, if TWoW takes 2 seasons, 2016/2017 or 2017/2018, then the ADoS based seasons won't be until 2018/2019. If GRRM believed he could release ADoS before 2019, he could give HBO access in 2017. I don't think he'd bet on being able to finish before 2018 though. So whether they decide to give 1.x or 2.x seasons to AFfC/ADwD is key.

If AFfC/ADwD is given 2.x seasons, GRRM's glacial pace may not be a problem after all. Who would have thought?

I think people exaggerate the possibility of Martin catching up to the books. I posted an outline in another thread which assumed 8 books and 10 seasons with three years between each book. Even then it allows the books to keep ahead of the show until DOS when they can be released roughly concurrently (preferably with the books some months before.).

[akajea]

protar, on 04 September 2012 - 03:23 AM, said:

with three years between each book.

Is this an estimate based on reality? ASoS - 2000, AFfC - 2005, ADwD - 2011. I would love for GRRM's pace to quicken, and I have read the reasoning behind predictions that it will (Meereenese Knot a thing of the past), but I wouldn't bet on it.

[protar]

akajea, on 04 September 2012 - 03:32 AM, said:

Is this an estimate based on reality? ASoS - 2000, AFfC - 2005, ADwD - 2011. I would love for GRRM's pace to quicken, and I have read the reasoning behind predictions that it will (Meereenese Knot a thing of the past), but I wouldn't bet on it.

Yes it is because: GOT 1996, COK 1998, SOS 2000. So in actual fact I'm being generous. That was his writing pace without the time-skip, the POV-split and the Meereenese knot. Although Martin is obviously a lot busier than he was, there is no logical reason for him to take as long writing the next 2/3 books as it took for him to write AFFC and ADWD. So imo 3 years between books in more than reasonable.

[akajea]

protar, on 04 September 2012 - 03:50 AM, said:

Yes it is because: GOT 1996, COK 1998, SOS 2000. So in actual fact I'm being generous. That was his writing pace without the time-skip, the POV-split and the Meereenese knot. Although Martin is obviously a lot busier than he was, there is no logical reason for him to take as long writing the next 2/3 books as it took for him to write AFFC and ADWD. So imo 3 years between books in more than reasonable.

Well, your optimism gives me some hope. I still wouldn't put money on a 2014 release, but it would be great.

[Davos' fingertip]

such a popular series ends with 'Go read the books to find out what happens next?" i don't think so.

[oierem]

Khal-a-bunga, on 04 September 2012 - 02:22 AM, said:

2011 - AGoT
2012 - ACoK
2013 - ASoS pt. 1
2014 - ASoS pt. 2 + AFfC & ADwD (chronologically relevent material)
2015 - AFfC/ADwD pt. 1* (*may wrap those story lines up, but likely two seasons)
2016 - AFfC/ADwD pt. 2  + TWoW (the climax material removed from the book)

Seriously, try to make an outline of each storyline for seasons 4, 5 and 6, and tell me if you think it works. Tell me what Arya, Bran, Sansa, Brienne, Sam, Victarion, Theon and Dany are going to do for example.

Edited by oierem, 04 September 2012 - 04:49 AM.

[oierem]

akajea, on 04 September 2012 - 03:32 AM, said:

Is this an estimate based on reality? ASoS - 2000, AFfC - 2005, ADwD - 2011. I would love for GRRM's pace to quicken, and I have read the reasoning behind predictions that it will (Meereenese Knot a thing of the past), but I wouldn't bet on it.

No it isn't. There hasn't been a HBO show that has lasted 10 seasons. Therefore, that's not reality.
And George is 15 years older, much busier and without any economical need to write new books.
And the story is growing so much that he'll need at least three more books to finish it. He still hasn't written his "original" Dance with Dragons, which was based on Dany's return to Westeros.