443 replies to this topic

[Ramsay Blow]

I gotta agree with Dragonfish, there really is no concrete evidence it's the real Aegon from that conversation. Im still on the fence overrall. And I think until we know the details of how and why Varys truly came to Westeros then we won't know if he is really a Targ loyalist. I get that he didn't want Tywin to enter the gates but it probably just screwed his plan up at the time.
It was whispered that he was the catalyst for Aerys going crazy.

[Maester Tormund]

Dragonfish, on 04 September 2012 - 12:25 AM, said:

Yes, he does. In his head. What he says is simply "Aegon", then "Dead. He's dead." That's all. Varys simply addresses the point he brings up by saying that Aegon is alive. Nothing more.

Well what other Aegon would Kevan be talking about?  If I said "and then Michael Jackson will show up to play an awesome concert" and then you said "Dead.  He's dead."  And I responded with a "No, he is here."  We'd both know we're talking about the famous Michael Jackson, not the random Michael Jackson down the street.

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Which does not mean he'd trust them with his most important secret. The rest of your argument fails simply for relying on such a fallacy.

What would Varys gain by telling them the truth? Nothing. And what would he lose? Potentially a lot.

If they were to betray him, if they're so afraid and hate him so much why haven't they done ANYTHING against him up to this point?

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Except he also has their tongues ripped out, to make them mute, and they generally die before they reach adulthood (we know this based on Varys' and Illyrio's conversation in AGOT). That could easily be a source of resentment for them.

Well I don't remember that part, I'll have to reread it.  But then how does a bird come to summon Kevan?  

Either way you just defeated your own argument, if they had their tongues ripped out then how are they gonna tell everyone Varys' secret about Aegon?

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Just because Littlefinger may have ulterior motives in employing such a strategy doesn't mean it isn't a valid one, for the reasons I mentioned in the last post.

I don't see a connection in Littlefinger's ulterior motives, which is clearly only to help Sansa stay in character and for him to get some satisfaction, to have any relation to Varys.  He doesn't need reminders to stay in character the whole time,  he appears as the gaoler and reveals himself as Varys which isn't really staying in character.

[Maester Tormund]

Ramsay Blow, on 04 September 2012 - 12:47 AM, said:

I gotta agree with Dragonfish, there really is no concrete evidence it's the real Aegon from that conversation. Im still on the fence overrall. And I think until we know the details of how and why Varys truly came to Westeros then we won't know if he is really a Targ loyalist. I get that he didn't want Tywin to enter the gates but it probably just screwed his plan up at the time.
It was whispered that he was the catalyst for Aerys going crazy.

Isn't it said by Illyrio to Tyrion (I believe don't jump down my throat if I'm wrong) that Aerys has heard of Varys and his success in Essos and sent for him to come become his Master of Whispers?

Also its said the catalyst for Aerys going crazy was Duskendale.  I'd believe that more than Varys making him crazy.  And what "plans" would Tywin's arrival have screwed up?

Edited by The Lost Baratheon, 04 September 2012 - 12:57 AM.

[Ramsay Blow]

It is said that but we don't know the true details of exactly who told Aerys all of this. How did he hear of this Varys from across the sea?  Maybe it was Duskendale but all Im saying is that these are all vague events and I just believe Varys is up to more than just supporting Targs.
I believe he supported Aerys because of the chaos he was about to bring to the lands with his insanity.

[Maester Tormund]

Ramsay Blow, on 04 September 2012 - 01:05 AM, said:

It is said that but we don't know the true details of exactly who told Aerys all of this. How did he hear of this Varys from across the sea?  Maybe it was Duskendale but all Im saying is that these are all vague events and I just believe Varys is up to more than just supporting Targs.
I believe he supported Aerys because of the chaos he was about to bring to the lands with his insanity.

Word gets around, thats how he heard about Varys.  And why would Varys want random anarchy?  Why would he, through Illyrio, help Dany if he wasn't a Targ supporter?  Why would he tell Jorah assassins were being sent to kill Dany?  

And its not a vague event.  Aerys was kidnapped and held hostage, and then when he comes out he trusts no one and is terrified of blades.  Makes complete sense as the reaction of someone just coming out of a situation like that.

[Ramsay Blow]

Duskendale wasn't vague, I agree,  but Ned sure thought it was Varys' whispers adding craziness to Aerys.  Then there is the whole Blackfyre thing. There can be endless reasons why he wanted chaos. We won't know until we know Varys's end-game (which may be just supporting Targs.)

[Ramsay Blow]

We're getting off topic. Bottom line is IMO Varys has some other agenda then just being a loyal Targ supporter.

[Maester Tormund]

Ramsay Blow, on 04 September 2012 - 01:25 AM, said:

We're getting off topic. Bottom line is IMO Varys has some other agenda then just being a loyal Targ supporter.

I just don't see what other agenda he could have other than being a Targ supporter.

[Dragonfish]

The Lost Baratheon, on 04 September 2012 - 12:48 AM, said:

Well what other Aegon would Kevan be talking about?  If I said "and then Michael Jackson will show up to play an awesome concert" and then you said "Dead.  He's dead."  And I responded with a "No, he is here."  We'd both know we're talking about the famous Michael Jackson, not the random Michael Jackson down the street.

Except that it's Varys who first mentions Aegon, so when Kevan says "he's dead," he's referring to the Aegon Varys is referring to, and he assumes that they're thinking about the same Aegon.

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If they were to betray him, if they're so afraid and hate him so much why haven't they done ANYTHING against him up to this point?

Any number of reasons, really. They may simply be waiting for just the right opportunity.

Alternatively, it may have been Illryio who switched the real Aegon for a fake one, without Varys' knowledge. The little birds may even be spying on Varys on behalf of Illyrio. Any number of options are possible when you're dealing with more than one conspirator who may or may not have conflicting goals.

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Well I don't remember that part, I'll have to reread it.  But then how does a bird come to summon Kevan?  

Don't really remember.

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Either way you just defeated your own argument, if they had their tongues ripped out then how are they gonna tell everyone Varys' secret about Aegon?

They know how to write.

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I don't see a connection in Littlefinger's ulterior motives, which is clearly only to help Sansa stay in character and for him to get some satisfaction, to have any relation to Varys.

So you don't think there's any use to maintaining a lie even when you think no one's around to hear it? Because it honestly sounds like a pretty good idea to me.

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He doesn't need reminders to stay in character the whole time,  he appears as the gaoler and reveals himself as Varys which isn't really staying in character.

Uh, that's because he's revealing himself to a character who doesn't recognize him. Hardly the same thing.

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I just don't see what other agenda he could have other than being a Targ supporter.

He could be a Blackfyre supporter. The most common theory is that Aegon is actually a Blackfyre, and son of Illryio and Serra, who herself was a Blackfyre. There's actually a pretty neat piece of evidence/foreshadowing for this theory: in AFFC, Septon Meribald tells the story of a black iron dragon sign being thrown into the river and washing ashore "red with rust." In other words, the black dragon (Blackfyre) gets tossed in the water (or exiled) and returns as a red dragon (Targaryen).

Edited by Dragonfish, 04 September 2012 - 01:53 AM.

[Ramsay Blow]

The Lost Baratheon, on 04 September 2012 - 01:27 AM, said:

I just don't see what other agenda he could have other than being a Targ supporter.

You don't see any other possible agenda for Varys?? Wasn't it varys and Illyrio who didn't even expect Dany to survive the Dothraki?? Just proving that she is a pawn and no more(in their eyes).

What if Aegon is a Blackfyre or a relative of Varys or Illyrio(or both)?  There are endless possibilities to what his true motives are. Just because he didn't want aerys to open the gates to Tywin doesn't prove his loyality to me. He was said to help aerys paranoia and helped cause descention between Rhaegar and Aerys with his whispers.

[Maester Tormund]

Dragonfish, on 04 September 2012 - 01:53 AM, said:

Except that it's Varys who first mentions Aegon, so when Kevan says "he's dead," he's referring to the Aegon Varys is referring to, and he assumes that they're thinking about the same Aegon.

Well thats a bit of a stretch.

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Any number of reasons, really. They may simply be waiting for just the right opportunity.

Alternatively, it may have been Illryio who switched the real Aegon for a fake one, without Varys' knowledge. The little birds may even be spying on Varys on behalf of Illyrio. Any number of options are possible when you're dealing with more than one conspirator who may or may not have conflicting goals.

Varys and Illyrio seem to be pretty close, I don't see them going against each other like you seem to be suggesting.  And they've had the right opportunity, Varys has been hiding in the castle and they know where he is.  Why not run off and tell someone?

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Don't really remember.

A young boy speaks to him, how did he do that if he has no tongue?

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They know how to write.

I'm assuming then that Varys taught them how to write, and he taught them how to write in the Common Tongue?  Varys is a lot smarter than that, hell Cat and Lysa were smarter than that when they were little girls.  If he ripped their tongues out and then taught them to write you don't think he made up a code? These aren't little lordlings and little ladies that have had a septa and a maester to teach them how to write, these are poor orphans scooped up off the streets.  

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So you don't think there's any use to maintaining a lie even when you think no one's around to hear it? Because it honestly sounds like a pretty good idea to me.

Well that seems a little crazy to stay in character for no reason and maintain a lie for no reason all the time, hes a master at deception he doesn't need to remind himself to lie.

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Uh, that's because he's revealing himself to a character who doesn't recognize him. Hardly the same thing.

If thats acceptable then why would he need to maintain a lie in front of a dead man?

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He could be a Blackfyre supporter. The most common theory is that Aegon is actually a Blackfyre, and son of Illryio and Serra, who herself was a Blackfyre. There's actually a pretty neat piece of evidence/foreshadowing for this theory: in AFFC, Septon Meribald tells the story of a black iron dragon sign being thrown into the river and washing ashore "red with rust." In other words, the black dragon (Blackfyre) gets tossed in the water (or exiled) and returns as a red dragon (Targaryen).

I've seen the theory, and don't believe it.  I think its a bit of a stretch.  The thread someone linked earlier on the thread pretty much destroys the Blackfyre theory.

[callmedodge]

Jalapenohitchhiker, on 02 September 2012 - 04:32 PM, said:

A lot of people may be questioning his identity simply because it seems too good to be true for Aegon to be alive, especially if you are a Targ fan. But something that really stands out to me is the fact that he and Jon Connington are using the Golden Company, which was created by the Blackfyres. While this doesn't necessarily prove anything about Aegon's lineage, it seems like the perfect form of symbolism for a Blackfyre. Having the Blackfyre Rebellion resurface using the most powerful sellsword company in the world created by their own ancestors.

I don`t think this argument holds much weight. That was over a hundred years ago and sellsword companies are just that. Sellswords. Sure, it was established by a Blackfyre but are there any Blackfyres present in the company now. I don`t think a bunch of random sellswords getting payed from the same source that was once a Blackfyre are going to consider themselves Blackfyres.

Yes, one could argue that there are probably plenty of Westerosi in the Golden Company who have been banished from Westeros but that just adds weight to the going home, under the banner of the supposed rightful heir, and being forgiven for whatever it was they or their ancestors did.

Considering the fact that the Blackfyre House is extinguished, regardless of it being the male or female line, I doubt anyone in the Golden Company considers themselves to have any real connection to it.

I just don`t buy it.

[protar]

One common argument for Aegon being real is that it doesn't make sense for V+I to be supporting both a real Targaryen and a Blackfyre and that if they want to seat a Blackfyre on the throne, what's the point if everyone thinks he's a targ.

But my personal theory is that Varys doesn't just want a Blackfyre on the throne, he wants to remerge the Targaryen and Blackfyre lines to prevent any further rebellions and to seat the rightful rulers on the Iron Throne. But he knows that a Targaryen claimant will get more support than a Blackfyre claimant so that's who he presents Aegon as. My full outline of V+I's original plan is:

• Aegon, the son of Illyrio Mopatis and Serra Blackfyre is raised in secret with Joncon to be the perfect king.
  
• Illyrio takes in Dany and Viserys and Dany is married off to Khal Drogo.
  
• Varys incites civil war in Westeros so the great Houses are weak and broken
  
• Khal Drogo invades Westeros and the weakened houses can't stop him.
  
• Viserys is killed at the start of the Dothraki invasion so now the Khalasar is just massacaring everything for the hell of it.
  
• Aegon arrives from across the narrow sea with the Golden Company and the Houses are able to all unite behind him.
  
• Khal Drogo is defeated and an eternally grateful Dany is freed from bondage.
  
• Aegon marries Dany, Houses Targaryen and Blackfyre are fused together and the realm is at peace.

[Free Man]

I believe he is real. That would explain a lot of the actions of Varys - he serves "the realm". He was sworn to serve the Targaerians, so he switched the babies to save his king (knowing Varys, it is the perfect way to protect the heir), he could not save the rest, while Robert had Viserys and Danaerys to think about. So the boy was perfectly safe. Makes a lot of sense. I would add more - those little birds he uses - they could all be heirs to nobles that were killed during the sack of Kings Landing, that he managed to save.
It would also add a lot to Danaeris Targerians story - her finding out she is not the last of her line, nor the first in line for the Iron Throne. She seems to be looking for a king, so if not Jon, maybe her relative. Her role in all this might have been to raise the Dragons out of harms way.

[protar]

Free Man, on 04 September 2012 - 05:05 AM, said:

I believe he is real. That would explain a lot of the actions of Varys - he serves "the realm". He was sworn to serve the Targaerians, so he switched the babies to save his king (knowing Varys, it is the perfect way to protect the heir), he could not save the rest, while Robert had Viserys and Danaerys to think about. So the boy was perfectly safe. Makes a lot of sense. I would add more - those little birds he uses - they could all be heirs to nobles that were killed during the sack of Kings Landing, that he managed to save.
It would also add a lot to Danaeris Targerians story - her finding out she is not the last of her line, nor the first in line for the Iron Throne. She seems to be looking for a king, so if not Jon, maybe her relative. Her role in all this might have been to raise the Dragons out of harms way.

It doesn't make sense though. He would have to have been in league with The Mountain to ensure that Aegon's double was disfigured beyond recognition which I don't see happening. There really isn't any evidence for Aegon being real aside from "Varys says so"

[Tini]

Ramsay Blow, on 04 September 2012 - 02:03 AM, said:

You don't see any other possible agenda for Varys?? Wasn't it varys and Illyrio who didn't even expect Dany to survive the Dothraki?? Just proving that she is a pawn and no more(in their eyes).

If Aegon is real, Dany would be no more than a pawn in Varys and Illyrio's plans - even if they are Targryen loyalists to the core. They just are not loyal to Daenerys Targaryen but to Aegon Targaryen. Who has a better claim to the Iron Throne, and their loyalty, than Daenerys herself.

And even when the Targaryens held the Iron Throne, Targaryen females were not valued as highly as their male kin. Dany held no value for them except what they might gain though her marriage so why would they be upset if she hadn't survived the Dothraki?

The Dragon Queen is a different matter. She is not a pawn, she is a player in the Game of Thrones.

[Free Man]

protar, on 04 September 2012 - 05:25 AM, said:

It doesn't make sense though. He would have to have been in league with The Mountain to ensure that Aegon's double was disfigured beyond recognition which I don't see happening. There really isn't any evidence for Aegon being real aside from "Varys says so"

From what I could tell about the mountain, he sounds like a monster, and he could have been expected to hack away at the babe. Now - did Tywin or Robert really know what the babe looks like? Babies tend to look like one another, they did not have Facebook back then, or an image to prove it was him.  They were not relatives or neighbors so they come visit and look at the babies all the time.
Just think about it - medieval times, who the heck knows what the baby of the prince (not of the king, so not the first in line for the throne at the time) looks like? The toddlers, on the other hand 3-4 years old, you have a chance of recognizing, but babies, I would say no.
AND what everyone forgets - that Griffin guy is loyal to Rheagar with his life, and wants to set things straight.

[protar]

Free Man, on 04 September 2012 - 07:00 AM, said:

From what I could tell about the mountain, he sounds like a monster, and he could have been expected to hack away at the babe. Now - did Tywin or Robert really know what the babe looks like? Babies tend to look like one another, they did not have Facebook back then, or an image to prove it was him.  They were not relatives or neighbors so they come visit and look at the babies all the time.
Just think about it - medieval times, who the heck knows what the baby of the prince (not of the king, so not the first in line for the throne at the time) looks like? The toddlers, on the other hand 3-4 years old, you have a chance of recognizing, but babies, I would say no.
AND what everyone forgets - that Griffin guy is loyal to Rheagar with his life, and wants to set things straight.

At the time I don't think it was known what a monster Gregor truly was and even if it were it would have been foolishly optimistic to just assume that the double would be disfigured. And yes there would've been people able to identify him, unless you're suggesting the every person in the castle who saw Aegon was slaughtered.

As for Joncon, his loyalty to Rhaegar is exactly why he's serving a fake Aegon. He feels he failed Rhaegar so now he truly wants to believe that Faegon is the real deal.

Now can you honestly come up with evidence for Aegon being real beyond Varys telling us, and it not being completely impossible?

[mcb]

Free Man, on 04 September 2012 - 07:00 AM, said:

From what I could tell about the mountain, he sounds like a monster, and he could have been expected to hack away at the babe.

That's an awful lot of assumptions here. One, that Gregor would indeed smash his victim's face beyond recognition; not that this is out of character for him, mind you, but it's only one of gruesome things he could've been expected to do. Two, that specifically Gregor would be one of men charged with taking the Red Keep. Three, that he would be the one to kill specifically Aegon. Looking in hindsight, it still was equally as probable that Lorch would do that deed; but in foresight, before the fall of the Red Keep, there had to be a hundred of different scenarios, and only few of them ending in Aegon's face destroyed beyond recognition.

However, after Prince Aegon's death, it becomes way more clear: one should've switched boys, and Gregor's brutality would have provided a pretty good cover. Presenting an impostor as Aegon became substantially easier both to plan and execute after he was already dead. And it makes no difference to Varys, unless you assume that all he does, he does out of his immense love and loyalty for House Targaryen. I make no such assumption.

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Now - did Tywin or Robert really know what the babe looks like? Babies tend to look like one another, they did not have Facebook back then, or an image to prove it was him.  They were not relatives or neighbors so they come visit and look at the babies all the time.

But in Tywin's pocket you find Pycelle... the royal family's personal physician.

Edited by mcb, 04 September 2012 - 07:46 AM.

[Tini]

mcb, on 04 September 2012 - 07:45 AM, said:

But in Tywin's pocket you find Pycelle... the royal family's personal physician.

There is no indication that Pycelle spent time with baby Aegon, or paid any sort of close attention to him. His attention (if any) was probably more focused on the baby's mother. He might not have noticed the switch, either. And he had no reason to look at the dead child, mutilated or not, because no one doubted that the child was indeed Aegon Targaryen.