Who is the Harpy?

[Young Wolf's Vanguard]

We know that the Harpy wants Mereen back to the good old slaving ways - biggest obstacle on that path are Dany, her army and her dragons. Until Hizdahr became sole ruler.

And the most stable pillar of Dany's regime in that time of crisis was our bald little worm and his masked friends. Very strange move for a Harpy to prolong Dany's rule when he/she has Sons and Yunkish army at his/hers disposal, dragons penned down and relatively easy to kill and a puppet ruler to calm the situation.

[kephv]

And the most stable pillar of Dany's regime in that time of crisis was our bald little worm and his masked friends.

Or so he would have them believe. I think he's really just been hacking away at her power base bit by bit from the inside, while making sure the blame was placed elsewhere -- notice how adamant he was about getting rid of the nobles.

[Young Wolf's Vanguard]

Probably not, but does he? The only people we know he tortures are the daughters of the innkeeper in whose house the Harpy's Sons did one of their crimes; there is no reason to believe that he actually has had anything to do with it and the Shavepate was under no obligation to suggest this kind of interrogation to Dany if he had wanted to protect them. Most probably they are not the only ones, but the others may well be just as innocent.

In his position, it's plausible that he can easily turn the heat away from at least the the more important Harpy's Sons, if he is so inclined.

A strong argument, but if Harpy is Shavepate he puts himself at a far greater risk than letting few Sons get caught

[Young Wolf's Vanguard]

Or so he would have them believe. I think he's really just been hacking away at her power base bit by bit from the inside, while making sure the blame was placed elsewhere -- notice how adamant he was about getting rid of the nobles.

If there was ever the time to strike it would be after Drogon took Dany. Why wait?

[kephv]

If there was ever the time to strike it would be after Drogon took Dany. Why wait?

He's not. He's using Barristan and Dany's forces to rid himself of the other slavers. Then he'll get rid whoever else remains after clean up.

[Alexander Stark]

Wow, i never even considered the Green Grace. I must be as naive as Dany lol

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

If the Shavepate is the Harpy, why didn't he want Daenerys to leave Meereen? (Or maybe he secretly did, but saying that Dany's departure would cause him to murder his whole family to save them from the torture that would otherwise befall them is a pretty counter-productive strategy.) Dany leaving would put him in a pretty good position to take control of Meereen afterward, and rule it however he wishes.

I don't buy the idea that the Shavepate would need to discredit the Green Grace and Hizdahr before taking over Meereen. The Harpy by definition has paramount influence over the noble houses of Meereen, because it's the nobility of Meereen that's waging this shadow war in the first place. (Who else would it be? The freed slaves themselves?) So either the Shavepate does wield that influence, in which case the Green Grace was wrong about House Kandaq and Skahaz doesn't need to discredit Hizdahr before taking over for himself; or the Shavepate doesn't wield that influence, in which case he's not the Harpy.

[LuisDantas]

If the Shavepate is the Harpy, why didn't he want Daenerys to leave Meereen?

One possibility is that he expects Daenerys to fail of her own accord, even as she leaves what is now an irreversible situation of freed former slaves. That, too, is a situation that he can spin towards improving his general standing among the Meereenese.

It is the kind of thing that I can see Petyr Baelish doing, in fact.

(Or maybe he secretly did, but saying that Dany's departure would cause him to murder his whole family to save them from the torture that would otherwise befall them is a pretty counter-productive strategy.) Dany leaving would put him in a pretty good position to take control of Meereen afterward, and rule it however he wishes.

I don't remember any references to his family, to be honest. Unless you mean the Green Grace mentioning his House of Kandaq?

I don't feel the Shavepate has any intention - or means - to simply take the throne of Meereen like that. That would overextend him.

I don't buy the idea that the Shavepate would need to discredit the Green Grace and Hizdahr before taking over Meereen.

His aim as I understand it is to use Daenerys and, to a degree, Hizdahr himself as leverage. As they try and fix what is probably an insustentable situation, they increase the Shavepate's political credibility at the expense of their own.

There is a definite political advantage at being the oposition at a time of crisis, and the Shavepate is far more of a contrast to the Westerosi than either Barristan or Daenerys realize. At the same time he is perfectly placed (of his own accord) to spin his own deeds as enlightened and in defense of the freedmen if it suits him.

The Harpy by definition has paramount influence over the noble houses of Meereen, because it's the nobility of Meereen that's waging this shadow war in the first place.

Not necessarily. The very fact that the Sons of the Harpy act in the shadows suggests otherwise. Essos' nobility does not seem to like to act incognito; they are very much sure of themselves.

It is at least as likely that their true goal is not so much to regain political power as to distance themselves from the invaders that took the city from them while working inside the new status quo.

Anyway, the Shavepate is indeed part of the city's nobility, albeit not a very influential part (if the Green Grace was correct and sincere in her statements on the matter, at least).

(Who else would it be? The freed slaves themselves?)

If they feel ill at ease with the current situation, that may well be. The pit fighters, at least, do not seem to be all that grateful for freedom for freedom's sake. We have been told that Meereen is not at all well adjusted to freedom, at least far as their economy goes. The change was simply way too abrupt.

So either the Shavepate does wield that influence, in which case the Green Grace was wrong about House Kandaq and Skahaz doesn't need to discredit Hizdahr before taking over for himself; or the Shavepate doesn't wield that influence, in which case he's not the Harpy.

I just don't see how the Green Grace could be wrong. She was much too emphatic and it would be way too easy for Daenerys or Barristan to simply ask around, which she explicitly suggested them to do. And I doubt the political situation of Meereen can fairly be reduced to a simple dicotomy of having or lacking influence over the nobility, much as that of Westeros (or anywhere else) can't really be expressed in those terms either.

[DanJBarn]

I've only read through the entire series once and am currently on my first "more thorough" re-read about midway through ACoK. But I've read some theories on the Harpy being the Green Grace that have always seemed to present the most compelling evidence in my mind.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Not necessarily. The very fact that the Sons of the Harpy act in the shadows suggests otherwise. Essos' nobility does not seem to like to act incognito; they are very much sure of themselves.

It is at least as likely that their true goal is not so much to regain political power as to distance themselves from the invaders that took the city from them while working inside the new status quo.

I don't recall any basis for the idea that the Meereenese nobility don't "like to act incognito" or that they've decided to work within the new status quo. Neither really makes a lot of sense to me. The nobility lost the most when Daenerys came to power, and would gain the most from a restoration of the old order. Daenerys also killed 163 of their number, as you may recall.

Meanwhile, most of the freed slaves--according to Symon Stripeback and Reznak mo Renzak and Marselen of the Mother's Men, if you'll check the third Daenerys chapter in ADWD--believe that their freedom will not long survive Daenerys leaving the throne of Meereen. Many thousands intended to follow her through the demon road rather than face the regime that would be reinstated after her departure. The idea that they collectively would try to undermine the one person who is most friendly to their interests is crazy, not because of gratitude but because of simple survival.

So yeah, I think the Sons of the Harpy are drawn largely from the nobility, because that theory doesn't assume that most of what was set up about Meereen is wrong. And since we both agree that Skahaz doesn't have much influence over the nobility, then it follows that Skahaz makes a piss poor candidate for the Harpy.

ETA:

Somehow only just noticed that your belief is that the nobility of Essos, not just Meereen, prefer not to work incognito. This is an odd thing to say. In part that's because it lumps together Syrio Forel, Xaro Xhaon Daxos, and the Wise Masters under one broad rubric. Beyond that, we know that poisoning is common in the Free Cities--that's from Grandmaester Pycelle in A Game of Thrones--and Essos supports at least two thriving assassins' guilds. The nobles who hired the Sorrowful Man to kill Daenerys didn't mind working incognito, and Magister Illyrio certainly doesn't like to trumpet his support of Aegon (or Faegon) like a self-confident Essosi noble.

[kephv]

Why would the Harpy, whoever they are, be gathering followers from among the nobility? It'd be much easier to get common street thugs to do their bidding for them -- costs less and there's a less chance of being caught. That's not to say that their organization, however it's made up, doesn't institute nobles; it's just that they're probably ordering hits through many different levels of the organization, low born street thugs (the ones who are all caught), making up the bottom.

As for why the Shavepate would urge Dany to stay -- he wants to be rid of the slavers just as much as she does I'm sure. If he took over when she left -- assuming he could take over; his house isn't well liked from what I understand and if he tried to make an outright grab for power, it'd probably fail -- then he'd be the one at the mercy of the slavers.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Why would the Harpy, whoever they are, be gathering followers from among the nobility? It'd be much easier to get common street thugs to do their bidding for them -- costs less and there's a less chance of being caught. That's not to say that their organization, however it's made up, doesn't institute nobles; it's just that they're probably ordering hits through many different levels of the organization, low born street thugs (the ones who are all caught), making up the bottom.

Whoever is doing the dirty work, the primary opposition to Daenerys is the nobility, so the most reasonable explanation is that the Sons of the Harpy are led by the nobility.

As for why the Shavepate would urge Dany to stay -- he wants to be rid of the slavers just as much as she does I'm sure. If he took over when she left -- assuming he could take over; his house isn't well liked from what I understand and if he tried to make an outright grab for power, it'd probably fail -- then he'd be the one at the mercy of the slavers.

But by that logic, it doesn't make any sense for the Shavepate to be the Harpy, because his position is dependent on Daenerys. Why undermine her position when he would be at the mercy of the slavers if she leaves too early? He should be bolstering her position, and his own along with it.

And beyond that, this basically means that the slavers themselves are more supportive of Dany's position in Meereen than the Shavepate is, because they don't seem to be murdering her people in the street, which is strange considering everything that Dany has done to date to undermine the position of the Meereenese nobility. I feel like this theory takes us into real up-is-down territory, where the guy who gained quite a bit by following Dany wants to undermine her, while the people who lost the most want to work within the new status quo in a peaceful fashion.

[kephv]

Whoever is doing the dirty work, the primary opposition to Daenerys is the nobility, so the most reasonable explanation is that the Sons of the Harpy are led by the nobility.

The primary opposition to Dany in Meereen is Meereen -- no one much wants her there. The freed slaves in her pyramid might be grateful, but the ones dying out in the streets everyday -- through disease and fighting brought about by the sudden economic and structural melt down of their society -- might be more content with how things were before. So yeah, the nobility hates her, and probably hates her most, but considering the conditions described in the book, even a lot of the freed ones out in the street might not be so grateful anymore either. Not to mention all the lower nobility who were debased to the levels of a common slave (i.e. the smaller slavers, who probably made up the majority of their society -- the ones who didn't live in pyramids, small shop keepers and such -- who suddenly found themselves in an even worse position than their slaves that they owned before Dany came around). They probably hate Dany just as much as the greater nobility --maybe even worse.

But anyway, yeah, they're probably led by certain members of the nobility (they might be the only ones with the resources to organize something like that), it's just that they work through many levels, lowest work being carried out by former slave masters and anyone else they can find cheap.

But by that logic, it doesn't make any sense for the Shavepate to be the Harpy, because his position is dependent on Daenerys. Why undermine her position when he would be at the mercy of the slavers if she leaves too early? He should be bolstering her position, and his own along with it.

I agree: he wouldn't do that. He'd get rid of the slavers first, then after the war, once Dany's position is that much weaker, then continue playing both sides -- sewing more seeds of conflict between Dany and the nobility, watching them tear away at each other bit by bit until he decides to move in.

because they don't seem to be murdering her people in the street, which is strange considering everything that Dany has done to date to undermine the position of the Meereenese nobility.

Why wouldn't they be murdering people in the street? Well, they very well might be -- I'm sure not all the murders in Meereen are the Harpy's doing -- but I also think they'd be a bit more careful about it considering it's their heads on the line: they know what Dany is capable of (163 noble corpses), so why pull the dragon's tail and leave their calling card with it? Sounds like someone is trying to create conflict between Dany and the nobility.

[LuisDantas]

I don't recall any basis for the idea that the Meereenese nobility don't "like to act incognito" or that they've decided to work within the new status quo.[ Neither really makes a lot of sense to me. The nobility lost the most when Daenerys came to power, and would gain the most from a restoration of the old order. Daenerys also killed 163 of their number, as you may recall.

The nobility isn't an homogeneous front, as pointed out by the Green Grace.

Nor is it really all that settled, either. Hizdahr is resisting Daenerys, albeit in the most peaceful way that one can conceive: he decided to subvert the new status quo overtly by marrying Daenerys (and succeeded). The Shavepate is doing the same covertly, letting Hizdahr's and Danerys take the blame for him.

Meanwhile, most of the freed slaves--according to Symon Stripeback and Reznak mo Renzak and Marselen of the Mother's Men, if you'll check the third Daenerys chapter in ADWD--believe that their freedom will not long survive Daenerys leaving the throne of Meereen.

So do I. Nor do I believe that it will long survive with Daenerys in the throne. I do believe that the turmoil is rich in opportunities for political standings to fall and rise.

Meereen was in shambles even before Daenerys left; she married Hizdahr as a last ditch attempt at attaining peace, and it worked only because she made a lot of other significant concessions.

Many thousands intended to follow her through the demon road rather than face the regime that would be reinstated after her departure. The idea that they collectively would try to undermine the one person who is most friendly to their interests is crazy, not because of gratitude but because of simple survival.

I don't believe they would. Did I imply otherwise?

So yeah, I think the Sons of the Harpy are drawn largely from the nobility, because that theory doesn't assume that most of what was set up about Meereen is wrong. And since we both agree that Skahaz doesn't have much influence over the nobility, then it follows that Skahaz makes a piss poor candidate for the Harpy.

Maybe it does follow, but I sure can't follow it.

ETA:

Somehow only just noticed that your belief is that the nobility of Essos, not just Meereen, prefer not to work incognito. This is an odd thing to say. In part that's because it lumps together Syrio Forel, Xaro Xhaon Daxos, and the Wise Masters under one broad rubric.

The nobility of Essos, or at least of the slaver cities, does indeed strike me as rather fond of pomp and circunstance. But there are always exceptions. Don't make too much of it.

Beyond that, we know that poisoning is common in the Free Cities--that's from Grandmaester Pycelle in A Game of Thrones--and Essos supports at least two thriving assassins' guilds. The nobles who hired the Sorrowful Man to kill Daenerys didn't mind working incognito, and Magister Illyrio certainly doesn't like to trumpet his support of Aegon (or Faegon) like a self-confident Essosi noble.

Nor are they much of a template for a typical Meereenese noble, IMO.

But speaking of poison, the notion has been brought out that the locusts probably weren't meant to kill anyone. After all, Strong Belwas ate all of them and survived. Sure, his very bulk helps somewhat, but I doubt someone truly desiring to kill Daenerys or Hizdahr would bet on them eating most or all of the plate. The poison may well have been meant to cause suspicion and paranoia instead of death proper. After all, Hizdahr and Daenerys are hardly confortable and just barely functional in their roles. There is little need to physically remove either when they are already crumbling after their own weight.

[The Dornishman's Wife]

Whoever is doing the dirty work, the primary opposition to Daenerys is the nobility, so the most reasonable explanation is that the Sons of the Harpy are led by the nobility.

It's quite plausible that the leadership of the Harpy is made up mostly by nobles, just as society makes them the odds on favourites for leadership positions in any club they participate in.

But I do not expect that the high nobility is the strongest opposition to Dany. With slaves or without, they are rich enough to come out at the top of the heap. The end of slavery is a major inconveniece for them, but not the end of their dominance. It's the lower free businessmen who have the most to fear from the new competition that the slaves bring, they are hit double: first their labourers leave them and then they open up rival workshops. They are dangerously close to losing everything and thus desperate enough to be the happiest recruiting ground for the Sons of the Harpy.

From that perspective especially, it's interesting that exactly this group seems largely ignored by the Shavepate while he directs Dany to focus on the upper nobles situated above him. That's not necesserily because he wants to protect the Harpy, he could just as well only take advantage of the situation or display questionable judgement here. But it would fit.

[The BlackBear]

I hope to god it isn't the Shavepate, he's the only one I can stand.

I'm pretty sure it's the green grace, it's quite nice to see a woman leading in a capable (if slightly evil) way...

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

I agree: he wouldn't do that. He'd get rid of the slavers first, then after the war, once Dany's position is that much weaker, then continue playing both sides -- sewing more seeds of conflict between Dany and the nobility, watching them tear away at each other bit by bit until he decides to move in.

But why undermine her position at all? Dany wants to leave once things are settled in Meereen. The only reason she's there now is because she's convinced that many bad things will happen once she goes. If and when she believes that Skahaz could hold the city against the slavers, she'd probably go on her own. And the Shavepate knows all of this. So the idea that he would undermine her when all he needs to do to take power on his own is be her man in Meereen is bizarre to me.

Why wouldn't they be murdering people in the street? Well, they very well might be -- I'm sure not all the murders in Meereen are the Harpy's doing -- but I also think they'd be a bit more careful about it considering it's their heads on the line: they know what Dany is capable of (163 noble corpses), so why pull the dragon's tail and leave their calling card with it?

Because they're a wee bit resentful that Dany cut a large swath through the Meereenese ruling class? Because constant murder in the streets offers them leverage that they can later use to extract major concessions from Daenerys? (This is the whole premise of Hizdahr's rise to power, after all.) Because Daenerys is unlikely to catch the culprit of any particular Harpy murder, and major actions against all the noble houses will only increase resentment and undermine her position further?

[Stark@heart]

I think it's the Green Grace, her whole attitude during her last with Barristan when they find out about the trenchbuckets.. made me think of her as a female Littlefinger.

[kephv]

But why undermine her position at all? Dany wants to leave once things are settled in Meereen. The only reason she's there now is because she's convinced that many bad things will happen once she goes. If and when she believes that Skahaz could hold the city against the slavers, she'd probably go on her own. And the Shavepate knows all of this. So the idea that he would undermine her when all he needs to do to take power on his own is be her man in Meereen is bizarre to me.

Does she? She hasn't shown any signs of wanting to leave yet, and she dug her roots even deeper when she took a husband. Also, I'm sure the harpy hates her as much as the rest. Why not undermine her position?

The same thing could be said if it's the Green Grace or any of the other nobility: just leave her alone; she'll be gone even sooner and then we'll only have the Shavepate to deal with.

Because Daenerys is unlikely to catch the culprit of any particular Harpy murder, and major actions against all the noble houses will only increase resentment and undermine her position further?

Exactly. The harpy's made sure never to have the murders point in a particular direction. That way he's only causing more conflict between Dany and the nobility. And notice how the Shavepate is always trying to push them further -- kill the hostages, kill one from every major family in Meereen, make them give more gold to pay for lives, kill all the nobility (they're all guilty), and kill Hizdahar, who the shavepate is sure is the Harpy.

[Manderly Chef]

I think Skakhaz is one of the few free Mereenese who actually supports Dany. He wants to take hostages and kill nobles because he realizes (unlike Dany) that this is what Dany has to do to rule Mereen. She's trying to completley change the culture and social structure of the city and the only way she can do this is by crushing the nobles. Skahkhaz understands this because he knows Mereen in a way that Dany does not. It seems like the Shavepate really does hate slavery and thinks Dany is a good thing for Mereen. so i think he's not the Harpy, that's probably the Green Grace