Ned vs. Mance

[fassreiter]

Actually, this is something that had me sort of confused, and I don't know if it's a plothole or will become significant. I don't think that there's any chance Mance + wildlings could have successfully gotten south of the Wall and not have been defeated by Ned and the North. Mance isn't a stupid guy, so I think he'd know this. It makes me wonder-- what was his actual plan? It could easily be that he thought defeat by the North was a better fate than certain death via Others, and it was just a hail mary pass. But it does strike me as odd.

I don't know the exact time frame, but it seems to me that when Mance went to Winterfell, attacking the Wall might still have been nothing more than a plan b. We don't know what it was he wanted to know, but he wanted to see Robert, make sure what kind of a man he was, and maybe he didn't like what he saw, or maybe he wanted to check if attacking the south was still impossible in any case. But he didn't go back and started to gather his people for an attack. In fact, when Osha is captured, which is much later, she says that Mance was - at that time - preparing to fight the Others. Mance and Tormund both confirm that they did, and lost. So when the wildlings start to 'vanish', which means Mance had started to gather them in the frostfangs for the attack, Ned and half the north had already left. This might be a coincidence, but I think after the war with the Others didn't work out, the wildlings went over to plan b exactly because they knew the north was weak, and they knew now they might have a chance they didn't have before. Attacking the Wall full scale was a new plan, and they had less than a year to prepare. We see wildlings training to fight against cavalry, but they are still bad at it. If this had been the long term plan, they would have started much earlier, I guess, and be better. Attacking the Wall was a desperate move, and it didn't work out because they didn't have enough time. Bringing all those women, children, old people, animals and stuff was a bad move, too, but they didn't have any other chance if they didn't want to leave them behind. I think if Mance had planned to invade the north against the Starks and the north, he would have started years before, and by building a strong army, properly trained, and leave those unable to fight at home. This also shows in the trick with the horn of Joramun. He tried to cheat the NW into letting them pass with the fake Horn of Winter, because he had to make up for the lack of time somehow.

[LordBloodraven]

The Wildling don't stand a chance against any below the wall army in an open field. That's due to their lack of discipline and that they move more like a caravan than an army

[E-Ro]

Yea, as others have said ned and his banners would destroy mances army. Stannis did it with 3,000 ned would have 18,000-20,000. A man in armor is very hard to kill, the wildlings fight with wood and stone making it even harder to kill men in plate or mail armor. As well as the eqiupment advantage the northmen would have a training and discipline advantage over the wildlings. The real qustion I think is does ned post mances head outside winterfell or send it to robert in kl?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Yea, as others have said ned and his banners would destroy mances army. Stannis did it with 3,000 ned would have 18,000-20,000. A man in armor is very hard to kill, the wildlings fight with wood and stone making it even harder to kill men in plate or mail armor. As well as the eqiupment advantage the northmen would have a training and discipline advantage over the wildlings. The real qustion I think is does ned post mances head outside winterfell or send it to robert in kl?

Onethousand. Stannis had 1,000 men, not counting Cotter Pykes maybe 50-100 Rangers.

[E-Ro]

Onethousand. Stannis had 1,000 men, not counting Cotter Pykes maybe 50-100 Rangers.

Oh, my bad. The point I made still stands. If anything this just shows stannises badassery.

[butterbumps!]

snip

I mourn the loss of a "like" button for this. That is also something that struck me as possible-- attack was always a plan B, and that going to Winterfell was a kind of recon mission to see if there was a chance to make common cause with those South of the Wall. I really don't think Mance wanted to fight the North (or even really the Watch for that matter), not least of which is because it would be a suicide mission for his people if there was a shred of stability in the North.

[ab aeterno]

I mourn the loss of a "like" button for this. That is also something that struck me as possible-- attack was always a plan B, and that going to Winterfell was a kind of recon mission to see if there was a chance to make common cause with those South of the Wall. I really don't think Mance wanted to fight the North (or even really the Watch for that matter), not least of which is because it would be a suicide mission for his people if there was a shred of stability in the North.

Yeah, this was my impression of Mance's intentions as well. Perhaps using the "horn" as a bargaining tool to give him a chance of being able to speak to someone.

[The Pale Bear]

As i understand mance just wanted to be on the other side of the wall when the others came. On 1v1 i think Ned would kill Mance since Ned's not a bad fighther and he has Ice

[Barty]

Ned would have crushed Mance. He has more number of fighting men who are well trained and well armed and armored. Mance has only 1 advantage which is that the wildlings know the territory and could use guerrilla type warfare but for that they would have to divide their army into small parties which Mance might not be willing to do considering the threat of the others - also his advantage of knowing the territory might not turn out to be very important as Ned would have the watch's best rangers with him.

[Dǽmon Blackfyre]

in war the wildings would have no chance against Ned Stark and the North. They have numbers, but no armor few with bronze even fewer with steel. Stannis smashed the wildings with his tattered force, so i would expect the northen man to tear through them like a hot knife through butter.

[Nudu]

What about giants? Im not sure an army can defeat giants without wall.

[tyrions sliced nose]

What about giants? Im not sure an army can defeat giants without wall.

arrows??

[ab aeterno]

What about giants? Im not sure an army can defeat giants without wall.

Mance has a few giants but not an army of them. One of Stannis's knights kills one of the giants and earns a title for it, so there can't have been too many, it would seem.

[The Wild Wolf]

When I posted the question, the scenario I had in mind was Ned calling the banners and heading through the wall to defeat Mance. Although Stannis easily defeated the wildlings with a small host, it was a surprise attack as he came by sea and the wildlings never suspected his arrival. Not to mention the fact they were preoccupied with the battle against the NW.

With Ned and his men marching north of the wall, they'd be in unfamiliar territory. It would have taken days for Ned to reach the wildlings, and Mance would in all likelihood be aware of his coming through scouts. Mance would be better prepared for this battle and have homefield advantage in a sense.

I do believe Ned and his men would still prevail due to better weapons and armor, but in this scenario, I don't believe it would be as easy as it was for Stannis. That's just my personal opinion though.

Even Quorin told Jon the wildlings weren't such terrible warriors, as members of the NW led him to believe.

[Daemon Dagoghlor]

Mance would win in a fight, but Ned would obviously win in a battle. The entire North vs the undisciplined wildlings who were routed by 2000 men under Stannis would be a very short engagement.

[ab aeterno]

When I posted the question, the scenario I had in mind was Ned calling the banners and heading through the wall to defeat Mance. Although Stannis easily defeated the wildlings with a small host, it was a surprise attack as he came by sea and the wildlings never suspected his arrival. Not to mention the fact they were preoccupied with the battle against the NW.

With Ned and his men marching north of the wall, they'd be in unfamiliar territory. It would have taken days for Ned to reach the wildlings, and Mance would in all likelihood be aware of his coming through scouts. Mance would be better prepared for this battle and have homefield advantage in a sense.

I do believe Ned and his men would still prevail due to better weapons and armor, but in this scenario, I don't believe it would be as easy as it was for Stannis. That's just my personal opinion though.

Even Quorin told Jon the wildlings weren't such terrible warriors, as members of the NW led him to believe.

Well, I supose I could imagine that Ned is the only character stupid enough to march north of the Wall to attack the Wildlings...

[butterbumps!]

With Ned and his men marching north of the wall, they'd be in unfamiliar territory. It would have taken days for Ned to reach the wildlings, and Mance would in all likelihood be aware of his coming through scouts. Mance would be better prepared for this battle and have homefield advantage in a sense.

Wait, why on earth would Ned march North of the Wall to engage Mance? If Mance was to be a problem because he'd attack/ invade south of the Wall, then why would Ned fight him beyond the Wall? The only single argument that would make any sense for Ned to do this is if Mance launched a propaganda campaign claiming that he had the horn and would use it. I could see why this would make it reasonable to engage Mance before getting the Wall. But even then, Ned's Northmen know how to fight in wintry conditions, they're better equipped, they're more organized. I don't really see Mance's "army" succeeding.

[King Daemon Blackfyre]

Wait, why on earth would Ned march North of the Wall to engage Mance? If Mance was to be a problem because he'd attack/ invade south of the Wall, then why would Ned fight him beyond the Wall? The only single argument that would make any sense for Ned to do this is if Mance launched a propaganda campaign claiming that he had the horn and would use it. I could see why this would make it reasonable to engage Mance before getting the Wall. But even then, Ned's Northmen know how to fight in wintry conditions, they're better equipped, they're more organized. I don't really see Mance's "army" succeeding.

Exactly. Only the Old Bear was stupid enough to leave the fortified position of the Wall and head into the wild to face Mance (and certain defeat).

[butterbumps!]

Exactly. Only the Old Bear was stupid enough to leave the fortified position of the Wall and head into the wild to face Mance (and certain defeat).

lol. Ok, in fairness to Mormont, he was trying to find Benjen and gain intel on what the wildlings were doing. I don't think he quite intended to face off against Mance's full army. Actually, he didn't know Mance was raising the army exactly, or at least that it included this many people.

[The Titan's Legitimate Son]

What about giants? Im not sure an army can defeat giants without wall.

Blacksmiths?