68 replies to this topic

[sumant30]

Quote

often times the best and most likely explanation is the simplest one. the more complicated something gets the less likely it is to be true

Ocamm's razor.

[Hustle]

Simple explanations are usually right in simple fiction, but a 7 volume, 10,000 page work which will take over two decades to write... chances are that things are not as they seem. Also, there have been things throughout ASOFAI which we have been lead to believe but turned out not to be true. False forshadowing is a staple of GRRM's work with ASOFI, and I believe that there are multiple POV characters who are unreliable narrators.

To put it simply...I believe that the simple answer will not always be the correct answer. Things of an unexpected nature will come to pass in ASOFAI.

[I BLAME MANCE]

I always thought Varys gave Aegon VI to Ashara temporarily so she could nurse him since she had JUST lost a child and could breast feed him and what not.
Rhaenys took after her mother in appearance, she had brown hair and looked like a Martell. Who's to say Aegon the VI didn't have brown hair?
If Lyanna's babe had Valyrian features, Ned may have swiched the babe with Ashara, who had similar features. Nobody would question her raising a baby with those features.
It might also be why Ned feels such a sense of shame when thinking about Jon, because he never fulfilled that promise. HE gave her babe away instead of raising it even if it was to protect her.
Varys may have helped cover up Ashara's death like Connigton. Both seem to barely be remembered. Only by those they touched emotionally. Ashara also killed herself AFTER Ned's visit.
It also seems strange to me that Edric Dayne would ask Arya about both Wylla and Ashara.

[Lord Martin]

Wasn't Dany conceived the night the Mad King killed Rickard and Brandon Stark?  Does that match with Lyanna's death?  I would think that meant Dany had to be born 9 months into the Rebellion and Jon at the very end of it.  

I just can't see Jon being the son of anyone other than Lyanna, otherwise the timing doesn't work.  We know Ned went to Dorne after Robert's Rebellion.  He went to two places, TOJ and Starfall.  Jon came from one of those two.  However, if Ned came back with Ashara's baby, the babe would be close to two years old if its the son of a Stark. The Tourney at Harrenhal is where the Starks met Ashara.  That was before Lyanna's kidnapping and before the Rebellion.  So Ashara did not get pregnant with Jon Snow there.  Not long after, Brandon Stark is arrested and likely didn't father any more children.  Ned wouldn't see Ashara during the war unless she was at KL during the Sack and Ned impregnated her then... doesn't seem likely though.

[Jem]

Lord Martin, on 18 October 2012 - 04:34 PM, said:

Wasn't Dany conceived the night the Mad King killed Rickard and Brandon Stark?  Does that match with Lyanna's death?  I would think that meant Dany had to be born 9 months into the Rebellion and Jon at the very end of it.  

Dany was conceived the night that the Mad King killed his Hand, Lord Chelsted, which was just days before the Sack of Kings Landing. Jon was born at around this time (or probably slightly after) and then Dany was born, obviously, nine months after that. So Jon was born at around the time of the nominal end of the Rebellion, and Dany was born at the official end of the Rebellion - the taking of Dragonstone - making Jon around nine months or so older than Dany.

But nevertheless, you are right, the timeline does not work for Lyanna's baby to be swapped with Rhaella's.

[Hustle]

According to a Wiki of fire and Ice, the timeline runs as such:

Sometime 283: Jon Snow Birth
Sometime 283: Ashara Dayne Suicide
Sometime 283: Robb Stark Birth
Sometime 283: Meera Reed Birth
Sometime 284: Dany Birth
Sometime 284: Rhaella Targaryen childbirth Death

This makes Jon older then Dany. If Ashara Dayne really killed herself after giving birth to a stillborn, the timeline makes sense. I think it is pretty likely that Ashara Dayne is still alive as is her son.

According to Wiki:

Ashara was a lady-in-waiting to Princess Elia Martell. She was present at the Tourney at Harrenhal, where she danced with several men, including Eddard Stark after his brother Brandon spoke with her. According to Selmy, a man dishonored her at Harrenhal during the tourney and got her with child. In Selmy's account, it was grief at the death of her child (and possibly of her brother's death) and shame at being dishonored that led to Ashara's suicide.

So, I always assumed it was a Stark, possibly Brandon, who dishonored her. It could have been anyone and here is an idea. Could Aegon be the son of Ashara Dayne and any of the men present at Harrenhal.

Possibilities:

Ned Stark
Brandon Stark
Barriston Semly
Rhaegar Targaryan
Robert Baratheon
Benjin Stark
Howland Reed

I think it would be very intersting if a Song of Fire and Ice could refer to Rhaegar having a child with someone from Dorne and Someone from the North...Fire and Ice...Sun and Snow. It would also be a lot of fun if there were two characters, Jon and Aegon, who were both Fire and Ice, Stark and Targaryan, and then possibly had to battle. Lets think about it this way, who could really battle a Dragon, unless it was with another Dragon. Lets say Jon, son of Lyanna and Rhaegar, gets a Dragon and has to battle Aegon, son of Ashara and Rhaegar, with a Dragon and Dany is stuck in the middle and has to choose.

So, I feel that even if Ashara did have a stillborn, evetually the father is going to be revealed. My money is on Brandon Stark and it is this child which has grown up to be Aegon VI, although I do really like the idea of him being a Blackfrye or the real deal. People are always looking for hidden Targs, but it could be that there has been a hidden Stark who is ultimatly meant to rule Westeros.

[MtnLion]

Hustle, on 19 October 2012 - 11:35 AM, said:

So, I feel that even if Ashara did have a stillborn, evetually the father is going to be revealed. My money is on Brandon Stark and it is this child which has grown up to be Aegon VI, although I do really like the idea of him being a Blackfrye or the real deal. People are always looking for hidden Targs, but it could be that there has been a hidden Stark who is ultimatly meant to rule Westeros.

Belandra Waters and I have have a thread related to this idea.  I think that Aerys raped Ashara at the Tourney at Harrenhal, that her son was given to Elia and named Aegon, and Elia's stillborn daughter is what Barristan thinks of.  It would require either Aerys or Rhaegar to contribute to the Targaryen looks of Aegon, but Rhaegar just does not seem to be that type of guy, so Aerys gets my vote, especially considering his fondness to raping and taking whatever he wants.  This allows that Varys did successfully rescue what he thought was a Targaryen heir before the Mountain got to him and Elia.  This allows for Barristan's recollections.

See our thread:  http://asoiaf.wester...s-at-harrenhal/

[Hustle]

I totally forgot the Mad King was there as well. He is also on the list.

[L dragonknight]

in the story that meera tells bran about the false spring she mentions a shy wolf and maid of purple eyes dancing. evenything we now about brandon make u think that it couldnt be him, but ned. then selmy while talking to dany remembers how ashara was dishorned, only because ned had to marry cat in his brothers place. if that hadnt happened more than like they would have married, he was a second son remember. Not to mention the fact that their father was a very ambitious man and more than likely went to KL to settle the matter with the king about lyanna being taken. He would have felt that the prince married or not was a better catch and more honor worthy than Robert. More than not if brandon hadnt gone running of to KL to confront rhagear things probably wouldnt have played out as they did. next selmy states in his thoughts that Ashara had a stillborn add that with the grief of her brother it was too much to bare. Then there's ned's reaction to cat when she mentions ashara's name, he felt guilty because he slept with her and then didn't marry her. Next there's the fact that unless i'm mistaken aegon was already born by the time the false spring had happened, by having the child it almost killed her. That's probably another thing that made rhagear steal lyanna away from Robert. remember in the story that meere says the stormlord was sharing a tent with the starks and the prince was with them for a time, probably trying to gain support againt his father. So he got a good measure of Robert and Brandon. Lyanna in y opion didnt want to marry Robert because she knew he couldnt be faithful. Also it's clearly stated that Dany was born on dragonstone in the high summer in a storm that crushed the targ fleet. Also with lyanna in dorne do you people really think that either the daynes or mantells dont know whether or not lyanna stark was preggers. I mean two of the kingsguard were from dorne and would have owed it to Mantells to tell. They also stayed and obeyed to keep her safe, which they didnt have to do when by rights she was Ed's sister and robert king.

[Starkbringer]

I think Robert was the one that dishonored Ashara at the tourney at Harrenhal.  He was drunk and a well known he whore.  The child was stillborn at KL and she returned to starfall only to have Ned bring her brother's sword, tell her Robert was King and married to Cercei now.  With Ned also married she lost all hope and committed suicide.  Elia died at the KL Sack.  Dany is all Targ or Viserys would not have kept her.  Only possibilityof a swap could Ashara and Elia.  But then the Aegon is really a Baratheon who looks like a Targ?  I don't think so. Obviously my opinion only.

[Hustle]

Aegon, if he is a fake, still needs the Valayrian/Targaryian features to come from somewhere. The Ned-Catelyn marriage is very important. All five Stark children come from these two but 4 look Tully and 1 looks Stark. Aegon's Valaryian features could come from only 1 parent.

People at Harrenhal who had Valaryian features.

Aerys II
Rhaegar
Ashara
(Very Long Shot) Aegon V yet to be named son.

The Valaryian features would have been visable at birth. Brandon Stark and Ashara Dayne, Rhaegar Targariyan and Elia Martell, or...

Varys takes very good care of Robert's Bastards. Might he take very good care of Aery's bastards...

I think Vary's is the child of a Blackfyre though the female line. He cannot have children, being a eunich. It always struck me as odd that Varys took care of Robert's bastards but it could be he has sympathy coming from his family's history. It could be that Aery's is just a bastard of King Aerys that Vary's wanted to protect.

[Blue Rose Direwolf]

I don't think Dany is Rhaegar's daughter but I love the idea of it! It's something I hadn't considered. The timing doesn't work, or the logistics - Dragonstone/Tower or Joy/in the middle of all that bloodshed and weather. Someone would have noticed a switch like that.

But I do like the thought of it. Rhaegar's daughter...

[Nelapsi]

I find this theory very fascinating, despite being utterly wrong.

[Greymoon]

The most likely switching would have occured between Ashara's babe and Elia's babe. It's been stated before, they probably got pregnant at about the same time, and were most likely at the same place. I'm not so sure about the timeline, but if the babes were born shortly before the sacking, Elia could have exchanged her live son, with Ashara's still born daughter.

This way baby 'Aegon' would actually have been dead already and Elia a good actress. The reason for the switch could be as simple as Aerys forbidding Elia to leave Kingslanding with Rhaegar's heir. Aerys might not have cared about Ashara and her bastard at all.

Two mothers and two babe's would have been accounted for, and only a few might have known about Ashara's girl being still born, thus, few might have blinked twice at seeing her leave with a babe in arm.

However, I think this unlikely, because Ashara has dark hair, and if her daughter was half a Stark, she'd have had dark hair too... Aegon does have silver hair as a babe, no? The hair could have been died.... though that pauses the problem of finding a proper hair-dye, whilst on a possibly tight schedule.

Also, the still born babe couldn't have been kept very long before it started to smell, or before people started to ask questions... So, it probably could only have happened if the births occured like... right when Robert was at the gates, a day or two before, at the most. And Aegon being described as 'still a babe at the breast' seems to indicate he was a bit older than a few days...and rather a few weeks if not months, old.

Of course, it could be that Elia was pregnant before the tournament, in which case Aegon might have been older than Ashara's daughter, and the daughter could have been born in the chaos of the sack (depending on how much time passes between Harrenhall and the sack, or whether it was at the Tournament Ashara got pregnant, I suppose) With the chaos, few people would have paid close attention to 'baby Aegon', and I'd imagine Elia would keep 'him' in her rooms, wrapped in blankets.

Its possible, no one would notice the different in size, once the baby's skull was smashed against the wall. Who would look at that picture for more than a few seconds?

I don't see how any other switching could be possible, or what purpose they'd serve. Nor do I see why Ashara would switch her baby with Elia, if it was Elia having a still born.

[Greymoon]

Hustle, on 27 January 2013 - 02:30 PM, said:

Varys takes very good care of Robert's Bastards. Might he take very good care of Aery's bastards...

I think Vary's is the child of a Blackfyre though the female line. He cannot have children, being a eunich. It always struck me as odd that Varys took care of Robert's bastards but it could be he has sympathy coming from his family's history. It could be that Aery's is just a bastard of King Aerys that Vary's wanted to protect.

I think Varys is just an opportunist and he takes care of Robert's bastards in case he needs one, one day, to cause a bit more trouble. It doesn't cost him anything and this way he's collecting eventual allies and unwilling pawns. At the same time, he's muddying the water, so no one knows what side he's really on or can guess what game he's playing. Also...it makes him appear as a good guy and builds up trust in him. Varys seems to have the uncanny ability to fool people into trusting him. Not completely, mind, but I gather most people think he's on their side. He's always so very helpfull, after all.

[MtnLion]

Timeline from Harrenhal to the sack of King's Landing is 24 +/- 3 months.  This is based primarily on the ages of Rhaenys (2-3) and Aegon (12 months) at that sack, and the fact that Elia was bedridden for six months after giving birth to Rhaenys.  It is extra-ornarily likely that Elia conceived at the Tourney or shortly afterwards.  It also clears the air somewhat about when Rhaegar and Lyanna eloped, which was after Elia became incapable of any further pregnancies.  There was 6 to 12 months of winter following Harrenhal (false spring), as well.

[Tini]

Greymoon, on 28 January 2013 - 11:14 AM, said:

The most likely switching would have occured between Ashara's babe and Elia's babe. It's been stated before, they probably got pregnant at about the same time, and were most likely at the same place. I'm not so sure about the timeline, but if the babes were born shortly before the sacking, Elia could have exchanged her live son, with Ashara's still born daughter.
... <snip>...
I don't see how any other switching could be possible, or what purpose they'd serve. Nor do I see why Ashara would switch her baby with Elia, if it was Elia having a still born.

Why not take it one step further? Let's assume Ashara's baby was not still-born and switched with baby Aegon to get Elia's son safely out of King's Landing. While she is is on her way with Aegon, news of Elia and the children's fate catches up with her. She realizes that her child died in Aegon's place but can't mourn her child openly, can't speak about it with anyone. She then has to hand over Aegon to Varys and his plans.

Ashara is left with absolutely nothing but grief and guilt. And a gap left by the absence of her baby. An absence that she cannot explain without endangering Aegon. Better to let people believe in a still-birth, then. Better for Aegon anyway, not better for her.

[TheBastardofBluegrass]

One thing to consider in all of this is, was how adamant Ned was all the way back in AGOT about not killing Dany, now surely his personal honor was very much a part of this. Why would he care so much if Dany lived or died? Ned seemed to have no regard for Viserys at all.

[Not A Lannister]

I'm a firm believer of the R+L=J theory and I also subscribe to Ashara and Elia switching babies theory. However the thought of Dany being Rhaegar's (even being a R+L=J believer) still bugs me to no end.

Also: Robb, I believe was born before Jon. At the beginning of AGOT Robb is described as being 15 and Jon as 14.

Edited by Not A Lannister, 28 January 2013 - 03:53 PM.

[Stark@heart]

If Robert did dishonor Ashara, then that would be a good reason why Lyanna would run off from her obligation to marry him, dishonoring herself, her family and the North.

It also puts Rhaegar's actions, ie, giving her the crown of Love & Beauty in a different light.

Seems he was truely smitten with her and concerned for her and her future and made a gesture for the whole kingdom to see.