Jon Snow and Bowen Marsh Loyalists

[In5anity]

Hello everybody, I hope this topic hasn't been discussed yet but I found nothing via the search function. Don't worry, that's not supposed to be another 'bitching about Bowen Marsh' oder 'what happened to Jon?'-Thread. GRRM left us with kind of an uncertain mess at the wall with no information what's the situation like after the (attempted?) murder of Jon Snow, but with many fractions of different goals. We have the Jon Snow Loyalists, the Bowen Marsh Loyalists, the wildlings, the queen's men and Melisandre. If we wanted to, we could also categorize the wildlings in their sympathy for Jon Snow but let's not exaggerate here.

So I like to get a little overview about the fractions, especially which known NW-member to consider as JS and BM loyalists. On the BM side we have for sure

Wick Whittlestick (started the attack on JS)

Alliser Thorne (isn't present but is an obvious choice)

Othell Yarwyck (associated early with BM)

Septon Cellador (not such a sure choice but one of the three who strongly spoke against JS in the mother mole issue)

some older officers

On the JS side there should be

Satin

Dolorous Edd

supposedly Iron Emmett

Grenn

Pyp

Leathers

some young recruits

Uncertain

Denys Mallister

That's gives us some interesting questions. First of all, what will Denys Mallister do, who is still the commander of the Shadow Tower and and old officer and member of the NW. Still, he supported JS in the election. He holds a very powerful position and could be the key figure of what could happen to the NW. Second, if we think of Dolorous Edd and Iron Emmett as JS loyalists and that the wildlings are not really JS friends but would prefer him over BM, Long Barrow would be a JS castle without BM loyalists. I see the possibility, that GRRM needs exactly that for TWOW and has JS sent these two to Long Barrow for that purpose.

But perhaps we should go back to the main issure of that topic. Do we have other (important) members of the NW, we can classify as loyalists for one side or the other?

[Yanninho]

I guess Cotter Pyke supports Jon. But as he's currently in the sea...

[In5anity]

Cotter Pyke is another one I was thinking about. He obeyed Jons order without a question but if he should return and is confronted with the status quo, I'm not sure what his reaction would be like.

[Yanninho]

As it is, we can't know for sure what's going on in The Wall. Could be just Bowen Marsh taking over as Lord Commander or could be a total bloody war between the NW and the wildings. I see(and hope) Tormund playing a big part in cleaning this mess.

[In5anity]

Tormund could be the key figure at Castle Black. What' so interesting about this coup is, that even if the whole watch was against Jon Snows decision (which I don't believe), Martin is a too clever writer to let him 'murder' Jon to just wreak havoc on the wall since the wildlings are in the majority. It would also take BM to arrest the wildling leaders, especially Tormund and the connections between wildlings and watch, i.e. Leathers and Jax. So what I want to say is, there is a chance, that this coup is a success, at least at Castle Black.

[Yanninho]

Yes, but to what end ? The NW disapproves Snow's decisions because he let the wildlings in. If BM takes over, what can he possibly do to make them go ? Feign to cooperate and then kill them all during the night ? Threat to murder the hostages ? Could be, but I'm not sure Bowen Marsh has the balls and the character to see this through. I would be glad if some NW members join Tormund to another coup to retake control of the Wall during Jon Snow convalesence (assuming he's not dead, of course, but I firmly don't think so)

[Lion of Judah]

The Queens men may side with Marsh as well after Wun Wun rearranged Patrek's face.

[The Mountain That Flies]

The Queens men may side with Marsh as well after Wun Wun rearranged Patrek's face.

It may be the Queen's men who start the massive fight with the wildlings (forcing the Watch the help them), as Jon was the one keeping the peace between the various factions at the Wall.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

A bit biased and unfound in parts, imho. My take, officers are marked:

Bowen Marsh

Wick Whittlestick

Septon Cellador

Jon Snow

Iron Emmet

Giant

Dolorous Edd

Leathers

Ulmer

Pyp

Grenn

Satin

Jax

some new recruits

Dywen if he still lives

Uncertain

Thorne (just being a grade A asshole doesn't make him a mutineer and he is far away and without communication during the timespan in question )

Othell Yarwick (he isn't fully in Bowens camp and seems to be won over during the book)

Denys Mallister

Cotter Pyke

Clydas

In a nutshell, the officers and influential rangers are either in Jon's camp or uncertain. Except the often-mocked Bowen and the known and mocked drunkard Septon Cellador.

[In5anity]

It may be the Queen's men who start the massive fight with the wildlings (forcing the Watch the help them), as Jon was the one keeping the peace between the various factions at the Wall.

I agree. Yet, that would lead to some interesting conflicts since the queen's men are kind of Melisandre's men who supports Jon. Could be, that we will be facing conflicts not only between the groups and between loyalists inside the NW but also between fractions of the Queen's/Melisandre's men. The more I think about it, I suspect the situation at Castle Black will start with a tense mood but no fraction really dares to make the first move. This cries out for an Other attack.

@Bright Blue Eyes

Nice work. Really interesting, that of the highest four officers of the NW (Mallister, Pyke, Marsh, Snow) two have shown no sign, whether they support Jon Snows way or not.

[Dimadick]

Satin

By necessity perhaps. Bowen and other officers look down at him. And at least some of the queen's men seem to have the impression that he is the paramour of Jon Snow. Malegorn mentions the term "your steward" in a certain tone of voice. Jon has the impression that the knight implies "your boy", "your pet", "your whore".

During the scene, I kept wondering if certain Sworn Brothers have the same idea about Jon and Satin.

Dolorous Edd

supposedly Iron Emmett

Both in Long Barrow and away from the events at Castle Black.

Grenn

Pyp

Are we certain that these two are alive? Last time we heard of them, Jon Snow reassigned them to Eastwatch-by-the Sea. Later, at least part of the forces stationed at Eastwatch followed Cotter Pyke in the doomed expedition to Hardhome. 11 ships set sail, only 6 arrived. The fate of the remaining ships is also in doubt. According to Melisandre: "Your ships are lost. All of them. Not a man shall return."

More likely to be still alive are Halder and Todder. These two were re-assigned to the Shadow Tower. A fortress which has not suffered major casualties yet.

Leathers

Perhaps by necessity. Bowen has effectively alienated him.

some young recruits

Denys Mallister

Plausible at least. Denys and Bowen don't seem particularly close. Denys distrusts the wildlings. But so far has not threatened anyone with insubordination. His reaction to an assassination will prove where this Riverlander stands.

the wildlings are not really JN friends but would prefer him over BM

I don't know about friends. But several of them volunteered to join Snow in a campaign against Ramsay Bolton. They included Soren Shieldbreaker, Howd Wanderer, Toregg the Tall, Brogg, Harle the Huntsman, Harle the Handsome, Ygon Oldfather, Blind Doss, and the Great Walrus. They might not react well to the death of an ally.

But perhaps we should go back to the main issure of that topic. Do we have other (important) members of the NW, we can classify as loyalists for one side or the other?

Glendon Hewett, the acting commander of Eastwatch. He was an ally of both Alliser Thorne and Janos Slynt. He has no particular affection for Jon. His political stance in a conflict is another matter.

[Ser Endrew Tarth]

Who is JN lol? Did his name change to Jon Nightswatch after he took his vows?

Mayhaps the remaining wildlings will insist on taking Jon's body and head for the Night's Fort. it's full of spearwives and a couple of Jon's loyal men right?

[In5anity]

Wow, everytime the JN mistake, haha. Seems like N and S are too close on the keyboard. *cough*

Totally forgot about Glendon Hewett. Could well be, that GRRM (at least I got that one right :cool4: ) needed Cotter Pyke to sail to Hardhome to establish a Bowen Marsh Camp at Eastwatch.

[the Scorpion Knight]

I would put allister thorne in the Jon snow camp call it intuiton

and septor cellador in the uncertain camp

[Arry Underfoot]

Who is JN lol? Did his name change to Jon Nightswatch after he took his vows?

Mayhaps the remaining wildlings will insist on taking Jon's body and head for the Night's Fort. it's full of spearwives and a couple of Jon's loyal men right?

The NF is full of builders. I believe the castle you're looking for is Long Barrow. Full of spearwives under the command of Iron Emmett. Dolorous Ed is his steward.

[the titan of westeros]

I can't be sure about grenn and pyp anymore they have always been good friends to jon but he's been recently ignoring them. Maybe he's even alienated them causing them to turn sides. We never know i doubt it but it's still something to consider.

[Ser Endrew Tarth]

The NF is full of builders. I believe the castle you're looking for is Long Barrow. Full of spearwives under the command of Iron Emmett. Dolorous Ed is his steward.

Yes thank you for that. :cheers:

[Ghost's voice]

Dimadick said

• 
  
• "Glendon Hewett, the acting commander of Eastwatch. He was an ally of both Alliser Thorne and Janos Slynt. He has no particular affection for Jon. His political stance in a conflict is another matter."
  
• 
  
• I just read the chapter today when Jon received the raven telling him of Hewett being in charge of eastwatch. Jon was thinking about how he didn't really like it because of how close Hewett was with Thorne. Hewett was the one who dragged Jon out of bed and kicked him in the stomach with Slynt and Thorne to answer for being a turncloak.
  

[Brindled]

perhaps i may be wrong, but i smell a battle. the factions will be splintered and scattered. imo, it will be a matter of who will be telling the history after said battle.

All of the wildlings' promises for the future hinge on jon snow. who, for all we know, will be somewhat incapacitated for the ensuing battle. with the wildlings' ability to preserve their agreement with the nights watch sprawled on the ground bleeding out of several holes, the willdlings will be forced into action. such actions on part of bowen marsh cannot be reckoned with by tormund in a peaceful manner, and i suspect tormund will lead the wildlings to be victors (remember they have not been disarmed in the agreement).

jon always noted how fierce of warriors the wildlings are but that they are not disciplined, however none of the watch or the queen's men are in formation or mounted. we do not know if bowen has plans to deal with this chaos after jon's murder. has bowen made plans to deal with this situation that started with an angry giant killing a queen's man?

i've also toyed with the idea (probably not the first) that Ghost may become a big component of jon's will if he does indeed die. his soul/essence will remain a part of ghost's. whether he escapes jon's quarters alive is obviously another issue.

there's really so much chaos letting loose at that moment. with the giant already upset, conjecture of what could happen next runs wild in my mind.

everytime i begin to think about "what-if's" i always end up in awe how this fantasy is a result of one man's mind, including where this story will lead.

[Ludd]

I do not think Jon is dead

Recall he could not reach his sword- ie he had been drugged. Bowen Marsh is a good guy. Mel may need to do a bit of healing (normal stuff like herbs and disinfectant).