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Jon Snow and Bowen Marsh Loyalists


In5anity

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"Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. "For the Watch." He punched Jon in the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.

......

and so, we have wick, bowen, and more than likely othell stabbing jon, but who was the fourth? any guesses?

I think there was already some divergence between Bowen and Othell , just like there was during the choosing of LC . Othell will be led up to a certain point , but will pull back if things are going a step too far.

In the sheildhall , Jon already takes note of them separately ... Bowen has Wick, Left Hand Lew and Alf of Runnymudd with him , Othell is surrounded by his builders. ( It's not Bowen and Othell with their followers.) ...Maybe GRRM is establishing that they've already reached the point beyond which Othell will not go ( possible assassination ). For me , this points to the 3 blows coming from Wick , Bowen and Left Hand Lew .

And it's the fact that the fourth guy mentioned was Alf of Runnymudd that makes me feel that the 4th blow might never have been struck , but that Jon was expecting one , because he'd noticed the 4 men .

Alf is a Queen's man and though he blames Jon for the death of his probable lover , Garth Greyfeather ( I think ) ... he might well have some sense of political ramifications if he's publicly seen stabbing the LC. ;) ..or he might have been completely distracted by what was happening with Ser Patrek.

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  • 10 months later...

I think there was already some divergence between Bowen and Othell , just like there was during the choosing of LC . Othell will be led up to a certain point , but will pull back if things are going a step too far.

In the sheildhall , Jon already takes note of them separately ... Bowen has Wick, Left Hand Lew and Alf of Runnymudd with him , Othell is surrounded by his builders. ( It's not Bowen and Othell with their followers.) ...Maybe GRRM is establishing that they've already reached the point beyond which Othell will not go ( possible assassination ). For me , this points to the 3 blows coming from Wick , Bowen and Left Hand Lew .

And it's the fact that the fourth guy mentioned was Alf of Runnymudd that makes me feel that the 4th blow might never have been struck , but that Jon was expecting one , because he'd noticed the 4 men .

Alf is a Queen's man and though he blames Jon for the death of his probable lover , Garth Greyfeather ( I think ) ... he might well have some sense of political ramifications if he's publicly seen stabbing the LC. might have been completely distracted by what was happening with Ser Patrek.

Umm no Alf of Runnymudd is a builder of the Night's Watch...
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Alf is a builder , according to the appendix ...but also a Queen's man according to Mel..it was confusing to me at first too ( when I posted the above , I was going only by the text,not the appendix ) ..but I suppose he was among the first to convert at the Wall , not on Dragonstone.



From Mel's chapter..



“Nor Garth,” said the queen’s man she knew as Alf of Runnymudd, one of the first to exchange his seven false gods for the truth of R’hllor. “Garth’s too clever for them wildlings.”

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Alf is a builder , according to the appendix ...but also a Queen's man according to Mel..it was confusing to me at first too ( when I posted the above , I was going only by the text,not the appendix ) ..but I suppose he was among the first to convert at the Wall , not on Dragonstone.

From Mel's chapter..

“Nor Garth,” said the queen’s man she knew as Alf of Runnymudd, one of the first to exchange his seven false gods for the truth of R’hllor. “Garth’s too clever for them wildlings.”

Oh ok, I understand.

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  • 7 months later...

I found something while reading ASoS earlier today that may add a bit to the discussion:

that's all it says but it's a curious passage. Mel sees some significance in Marsh early on and Sam catches it. IIRC a connection between the two (Mel and Marsh) is not mentioned again...

Just noticed this too on a re-read and was curious if anyone else had picked up on it. Obviously you had a couple years earlier haha.

ETA: Nvm just read the following post.

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"Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. "For the Watch." He punched Jon in the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.

I find the fact bowen was crying before stabbing jon a bit puzzling. bowen could very well have been coerced into the conspiracy to kill jon. the way they declare, "For the Watch," could be a red herring forced upon them to display. this would allow the main conspirators the ability to go unnoticed after jon's death.

it still doesn't defuse the situation at hand. the hall full of wildlings ready to go with jon to deal with bolton had their weapons in hand when jon left them minutes before. to me, it seems like a recipe for disaster.

and so, we have wick, bowen, and more than likely othell stabbing jon, but who was the fourth? any guesses?

Three Finger Hobb? He's a steward, so there's that, but I always felt Dolorous Edd's comment "Never trust a cook, my lord. They'll prune you when you least expect it" was foreshadowing.

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  • 1 month later...

Bowen Marsh supported Janos and the Lannisters, so Cotter and Ser Denys won't like BM. They are more likely to support Jon.

Queens men could go both ways. They hate Jon, but Mel won't let them support to kill him unless it was her plan all along.

Whether the wildlings was with Jon or secretly plotting against him, they definitely don't like BM camp winning the Watch.

I think the assassination was closely followed by a bloody fight between NW and Wildlings, in which wildlings will win. They have no discipline but this is a mutiny no war, so discipline may not be needed.

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To clear a few things up:



First, heading south was no desertion.




I want my bride back. I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it.




Given that some of these demands aren't even possible to meet, Ramsey Snow represents a serious threat to the NW. If Benjen Stark can be permitted to visit Winterfell during King Robert's stay, surely the Lord Commander has a right to travel south to demand satisfaction from a man who intends to eat his heart. Quite the opposite from desertion, such a decision is noble and in the best interests of the NW, since it means that no crows need to die protecting their Lord Commander from Ramsey Snow.




Second, immediately after the attack on Jon, the only plausible outcome I imagine likely is an abrupt bloodbath. Jon may not know it, but his actions throughout ADWD have made him the new de facto King Beyond the Wall; Tormund & the Wildlings at Castle Black will not appreciate what BM's faction has done, and they have him hugely outnumbered. Ultimately, this may spell the end of the Night's Watch once and for all.




As for Jon himself, speculation about his future seems pointless. Evidence can be furnished supporting every imaginable outcome, but in the end, GRRM will do as he likes. All we can do is cross our fingers and wait.


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As much as I want to believe the Wildlings will seize control of CB after the stabbing and avenge/protect Jon, I think GRRM has something different in mind. The child hostages could come into play and force the Wildlings to yield. But this really depends on who all is involved in the plot. This obviously wouldn't be an issue if the only ones involved were the brothers who actually stabbed Jon.

I am also unsure of Tormunds true feelings toward Jon. I understand Tormund is doing what is best by his people, but I find it hard to believe he can become "friends" with Jon and/or let Jon become the leader of the Wildlings after Jon betrayed him. I think GRRM may be using Tormund's charisma and likable personality to hide his true motives. Just a hunch.

I read an interesting theory on how Borroq or another Warg was behind the stabbings. The mutineers attacked Jon one at a time (vice all at once) and Wick put his hands up as if to say it wasn't him. It would also explain Ghosts aggression toward the hog. I don't believe it, but I do think it is interesting and an original take on the issue.

We can make assumptions on what happened and who all is involved but we won't truly know until the book comes out.

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That's pretty much exactly how Caesar was killed though: several nervous armed men going after one person will not want to risk getting themselves hurt, and will hope that one of the others will make the first move. Once the attack was underway, the other attackers remained cautious to avoid friendly-knifing (at least one of Caesar's assassins was in fact mildly injured by another assailant's blade).


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...

Uncertain

Thorne (just being a grade A asshole doesn't make him a mutineer and he is far away and without communication during the timespan in question )

...

I would put allister thorne in the Jon snow camp call it intuiton

I agree with this. There is no reason to believe that Aliser Thorne is a traitor and an assassin. He was just a Targaryen loyalist knight from the crownlands, bitter at the Usurper and his followers for asking him a hard oath while he pardoned so many, and tasked to be the drill sergent of the Night's Watch.

The presentation of him in the TV show actually matched in part some of my perceptions on him.

I may be wrong, though. He was able to get along well with Janos Slynt, after all.

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He was able to get along well with Jon as well. It was Jon, with a bit of help from Tyrion, who made an enemy out of him. A personal enemy, not one based on his policies as Lord Commander.

Sure .. :rolleyes: not exactly what i'd call getting along...

Jon was a 14 yr old coming from a fairly protected environment, Thorne, battle hardened and manipulative (as confirmed later) .. a man of more than double Jon's age. At first he praised Jon, but at the expense of the other recruits , knowing full well that would turn the others against Jon.( This is not friendly treatment)

After a few home truths from Donal, Jon tries to help the others and make friends ..which Alliser doesn't want . He could have taught the recruits the same things that Jon tries to pass on, but he has too much contempt for his charges to bother.

But it's the fact that he has fixed on Jon as a personal enemy ( however that came to be) that in part , tells me that he is one of the conspirators. He manipulated Slynt into both his attempts to kill Jon ( first by execution and second, by suicide mission ).. and continued manipulating Bowen when Slynt was gone.

I don't think he actually cares about the policies of any LC or the NW in general. If he cared, he would have given his recruits the training they needed , rather than playing his games with them.

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