Varys the Mastermind/ Littlefinger the Golddigger: A Comparison

[Lummel]

...The question is not so much how Varys communicates. The question is who Varys communicates with. Who's on the other end of his communication line? I somehow doubt the washerwoman at Renly's camp is going to tie messages to ravens...

Well there you go. Either the washerwoman, the men at arms and the groom are communicating directly with Varys or Varys has field operatives of some description. If he has field operatives then the persons of interest who we would want to investigate with regard to that role would be the older or grown up little birds.

However he presumably has some people employed through the office of the master of whispers because there are people that Qyburn gets reports from in AFFC - it seems a bit unlikely that he just finds written reports in his in-tray and never finds it a bit odd.

[ab aeterno]

The ravens also have to be transported back. Most of them can only fly to one location. Even being able to fly between two locations is apparently unusual.

But on the other hand Illyrio is bankrolling Varys' activities so he should be able to afford raven post.

I've been pondering this. The ravens must all be able to fly home, but the question is, does home count as the "one?" It probably does, I assume, but it's possible that one place mean one castle other than their home, and a raven which knew more than one place would be able to fly to two castles other than home. I just think the logistics of one-way ravens would be absurd when you think about it- Stannis would have run out of ravens pretty quickly when he sent his letter to the realm, it would take so long to carry ravens back to the North, even by ship, for example. And if you're somewhere like Castle Black, every time you send a raven out you either have to replace it or wait for one of your recruiters to return, or for a trader to call at Eastwatch...

[Lummel]

This is exactly the way that carrier pigeons worked. It seemed perfectly sensible until the telegraph was invented.

With training, pigeons can carry up to 75 g (2.5 oz) on their backs. The German apothecary Julius Neubronner used carrier pigeons to deliver urgent medication. In 1977 a similar carrier pigeon service was set up for the transport of laboratory specimens between two English hospitals. Every morning a basket with pigeons was taken from Plymouth General Hospital to Devonport Hospital. The birds then delivered unbreakable vials back to Plymouth as needed.

from here with added emphasis.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I've been pondering this. The ravens must all be able to fly home, but the question is, does home count as the "one?" It probably does, I assume, but it's possible that one place mean one castle other than their home, and a raven which knew more than one place would be able to fly to two castles other than home. I just think the logistics of one-way ravens would be absurd when you think about it- Stannis would have run out of ravens pretty quickly when he sent his letter to the realm, it would take so long to carry ravens back to the North, even by ship, for example. And if you're somewhere like Castle Black, every time you send a raven out you either have to replace it or wait for one of your recruiters to return, or for a trader to call at Eastwatch...

That's made pretty clear in the gift chapter. The two-castles-ravens can fly back and forth, the normal ones can't. The logistics aren't absurd - just expensive. But the important/rich Lords with confirmed rookeries can afford it from time to time. Stannis sent out what? 17x birds or something lik that? So what, he may have had 500 or more.

Keep 10 or 20 ravens for the important locations, 2 or 3 for the unimportant ones, and you are golden. That should suffice for a few years. Ravens are for important messages, not for smalltalk (or posting in internet forums :cool4: ).

[ab aeterno]

This is exactly the way that carrier pigeons worked. It seemed perfectly sensible until the telegraph was invented.

from here with added emphasis.

That's made pretty clear in the gift chapter. The two-castles-ravens can fly back and forth, the normal ones can't. The logistics aren't absurd - just expensive. But the important/rich Lords with confirmed rookeries can afford it from time to time. Stannis sent out what? 17x birds or something lik that? So what, he may have had 500 or more.

Keep 10 or 20 ravens for the important locations, 2 or 3 for the unimportant ones, and you are golden. That should suffice for a few years. Ravens are for important messages, not for smalltalk (or posting in internet forums :cool4: ).

They still sent ravens out pretty liberally, and Westeros is supposed to be the size of South America. I'm not necessarily arguing against it, just that you didn't see carrier pigeons being sent from Edinburgh to Casablanca even if there was an important message.

Devovnport is relatively close to Plymoth, and I have no query about ravens being sent short-ish distances.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

They still sent ravens out pretty liberally, and Westeros is supposed to be the size of South America. I'm not necessarily arguing against it, just that you didn't see carrier pigeons being sent from Edinburgh to Casablanca even if there was an important message.

Devovnport is relatively close to Plymoth, and I have no query about ravens being sent short-ish distances.

Yes, but that just makes it more expensive, not impossible. Westeros has probably 200 rookeries, every single one belonging to a (once*)great Lord, an important military base or a goverment-funded organization.

* to account for Griffin's Roost.

[ab aeterno]

Yes, but that just makes it more expensive, not impossible. Westeros has probably 200 rookeries, every single one belonging to a (once*)great Lord, an important military base or a goverment-funded organization.

* to account for Griffin's Roost.

Yeah, I don't think it's impossible or anything, just absurdly expensive if you're WF and not seeing too many travelers who could bring your ravens back. :P

Also, what do you do if you have sent you last raven to a certain destination, or if it dies? If you're WF and your last raven to Sunspear dies you have to sent a raven to the nearest castle to Sunspear for which you have a raven, have them sent a raven to Sunspear and then get Sunspear to send you a raven trained to fly to Sunspear... Vice versa for the south and WF...

[butterbumps!]

Bright Blue Eyes,

I don't mean to push this too much, but I'm still not sure I understand the cost prohibitions or the impracticality of having a network of birds off the grid. First, couldn't they breed the birds themselves, thereby avoiding having to pay for them legally? Secondly, couldn't Varys be using crows or carrier pigeons to do essentially the same thing? Maybe they aren't literal ravens, and thus don't raise suspicion, though I'm not even sure a raven would anyway. Thirdly, don't they already have enough tongueless slaves to do their bidding who aren't, strictly speaking, getting bribes who could be on the field as middlemen and trainers?

Varys' use is to be able to get valuable information to kings before anyone else hears about it. Slipping a message between ships on a chance meeting like you describe is what other people do. Varys by his very nature and employ must necessarily do better than this. The information must be in his hands before anyone knows. This cannot be done if he's relying just on ships. I'd say that augments some other form of communication rather than being his primary one-- we know he does listen to dock gossip, but his job requires him to be a lot more dependable than this.

I think Varys does "have a guy" somewhere between KL and the Eyrie/ Riverrlands, to answer that question about why we don't hear anything about it. Before news of Cat's capture of Tyrion hits KL, Varys is down in the dungeon talking to Illyrio about it (and blaming LF for it in the process).

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Bright Blue Eyes,

I don't mean to push this too much, but I'm still not sure I understand the cost prohibitions or the impracticality of having a network of birds off the grid. First, couldn't they breed the birds themselves, thereby avoiding having to pay for them legally? Secondly, couldn't Varys be using crows or carrier pigeons to do essentially the same thing? Maybe they aren't literal ravens, and thus don't raise suspicion, though I'm not even sure a raven would anyway. Thirdly, don't they already have enough tongueless slaves to do their bidding who aren't, strictly speaking, getting bribes who could be on the field as middlemen and trainers?

Varys' use is to be able to get valuable information to kings before anyone else hears about it. Slipping a message between ships on a chance meeting like you describe is what other people do. Varys by his very nature and employ must necessarily do better than this. The information must be in his hands before anyone knows. This cannot be done if he's relying just on ships. I'd say that augments some other form of communication rather than being his primary one-- we know he does listen to dock gossip, but his job requires him to be a lot more dependable than this.

I think Varys does "have a guy" somewhere between KL and the Eyrie/ Riverrlands, to answer that question about why we don't hear anything about it. Before news of Cat's capture of Tyrion hits KL, Varys is down in the dungeon talking to Illyrio about it (and blaming LF for it in the process).

The problem isn't acquiring the ravens or whatever, it is keeping them close enough to the spies that they can send letters. Spies are in important households. People don't travel unless they are merchants. Therefore the ravens would have to be kept directly under the nose of the Lord who is spied on, just a few miles tops. A bunch of birds is suspicious and impossible to hide from neighbours and visitors. The entire village, the tax collectors and every soldier or servant or relative of the Lord that looks for a bit of fun in the village would be in on the secret. Not happening. One guy can be made a spy, 500+ not.

And even if there is a rookery in the back end of nowhere, with the entire village and the tax collectors bribed to keep silent, Varys still would need to send guys with cages full of birds several thousand miles. Transport is expensive, customs officers would have to be bribed a hundred times over, etc. pp.

Someone would talk.

[butterbumps!]

The problem isn't acquiring the ravens or whatever, it is keeping them close enough to the spies that they can send letters. Spies are in important households. People don't travel unless they are merchants. Therefore the ravens would have to be kept directly under the nose of the Lord who is spied on, just a few miles tops. A bunch of birds is suspicious and impossible to hide from neighbours and visitors. The entire village, the tax collectors and every soldier or servant or relative of the Lord that looks for a bit of fun in the village would be in on the secret. Not happening. One guy can be made a spy, 500+ not.

And even if there is a rookery in the back end of nowhere, with the entire village and the tax collectors bribed to keep silent, Varys still would need to send guys with cages full of birds several thousand miles. Transport is expensive, customs officers would have to be bribed a hundred times over, etc. pp.

Someone would talk.

I still don't know if I understand why keeping birds around would attract so much attention, or why villagers would have to be bribed to keep quiet about it. Couldn't birds be raised somewhere near KL, couldn't small cages of them be distributed to his spies, and couldn't they just be released home? They don't need rookeries or towers to be sent out; Sam released them just fine on that ranging from the ground. I think you might be underestimating what Pycelle could know about him, as a side note. I really do think it's possible that Varys is using the KL rookery as his base.

I honestly don't know if any other explanation makes sense. He's only going to be kept in his position (or keep up with his schemes) if he can deliver on urgent news, and I don't think it's possible without a mail network. Keep in mind that I would assume the birds don't have to go 2 ways- just back to Varys, like a daily report or something.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I still don't know if I understand why keeping birds around would attract so much attention, or why villagers would have to be bribed to keep quiet about it. Couldn't birds be raised somewhere near KL, couldn't small cages of them be distributed to his spies, and couldn't they just be released home? They don't need rookeries or towers to be sent out; Sam released them just fine on that ranging from the ground. I think you might be underestimating what Pycelle could know about him, as a side note. I really do think it's possible that Varys is using the KL rookery as his base.

I honestly don't know if any other explanation makes sense. He's only going to be kept in his position (or keep up with his schemes) if he can deliver on urgent news, and I don't think it's possible without a mail network. Keep in mind that I would assume the birds don't have to go 2 ways- just back to Varys, like a daily report or something.

Birds need (large) cages (if they are kept longer than a few days). Cages need space. Indoors, or they would freeze in time. They need feed. Birds make a lot of noise. It isn't a radio to be hid behind a board when soldiers chance by. Everybody visiting the area would know. Everybody there would get suspicious. Everybody is sworn to the Lord living in the castle on the next hill. Someone would tell. Preferably before the Lords men find the birds themselves. Dead birdkeeper, dead spy.

[butterbumps!]

Birds need (large) cages (if they are kept longer than a few days). Cages need space. Indoors, or they would freeze in time. They need feed. Birds make a lot of noise. It isn't a radio to be hid behind a board when soldiers chance by. Everybody visiting the area would know. Everybody there would get suspicious. Everybody is sworn to the Lord living in the castle on the next hill. Someone would tell. Preferably before the Lords men find the birds themselves. Dead birdkeeper, dead spy.

Ok, if I were setting this up, I would not be keeping them longterm at any place necessarily. I would sent out my mutes every couple of weeks or so with said cages to replenish the shipment to my mute bird keepers depending on how often Varys gets his reports. I honestly do not think that a guy travelling with a cage of birds-- or even storing birds in an indoor location-- would be problematic. I don't get why anyone would be suspicious of a guy with birds. And we're not talking about peacocks here, but birds that actually do survive in the cold and are common to Westeros. Ravens were brought on that ranging, which was a lot of outdoor time in the coldest environment we've seen.

[Ragnorak]

I suspect that there are several routine reports that get sent by raven. Tax revenues, the Kings justice, birth and death notices for nobles, etc. It seems Varys has done the bookkeeping for Illyn Payne. This means that any standard reports typically sent to the Kings Justice could contain messages for Varys from his spies. He could also have one noble or more nobles in KL getting routine correspondence that contain coded messages either with or without their knowledge. He may also be using a variation of his original scheme to transcribe other people's letters and therefore have his spies send the information to other people in KL that Varys has ready access to their letter storage. Using a castle in quick riding distance of KL is another option. If he sends messages there is nothing suspicious in getting a reply. The coded message part is a possibility in all of these. So he could be using the existing raven system right under everyone's noses. The idea of him planting a few ravens to be dropped off as part of the usual raven exchange is not an impossibility. These ravens are being returned to multiple castles throughout the kingdom all the time. He only needs one bird stashed someplace near each vital spy in case of emergency. Remember, he didn't set up shop last week. He's had around 20 years to establish his network.

[redviper9]

It actually wouldn't surprise me if Varys -- and past Masters of Whisperers -- had access to the King's Landing rookery. That post requires quick access to information, and it seems like ravens are the fastest way to transmit news in Westeros (unless you're able to tap into the weirwood network). Giving the Master of Whisperers access to ravens might have been part of the deal the early Targaryen monarchs struck with the Citadel when the Iron Throne, Red Keep, and Small Council were first formed/built.

And it doesn't have to be an extensively large raven network. I'm thinking the vicinity of regional capitals (Winterfell, the Eyrie, etc.), the seats of important non-paramount lords (the Twins, Starfall, etc.) and the few cities that Westeros has (Oldtown, Lannisport, White Harbor) would suffice to get critical information back to King's Landing. That would be around 20-30 birds, which I don't think would be outrageously expensive or difficult to maintain.

[tze]

On Varys and Bloodraven:

In a very real sense, I think the Bloodraven-is-alive reveal makes Varys and Littlefinger look like children playing dress-up, because it highlights the aspects of those characters that once seemed to illustrate their cleverness and transforms those characteristics into demonstrations of ignorance. Littlefinger doing his plotting in the godswood to avoid Varys's spies suddenly goes from looking clever and inspired to looking downright idiotic. Varys's spy network goes from looking like the most powerful intelligence gathering organization in Westeros to looking, in comparison to Bloodraven's "network", like a bunch of little kids with walkie-talkies pretending to be the CIA.

I think GRRM has highlighted this idea---of Bloodraven 'changing the game' by virtue of his presence exposing the pretensions and inadequacies of the Westerosi schemers---especially strongly in the cast of Varys, for by creating a number of explicit parallels between Varys and Bloodraven, I really do think the implication is that Varys is only a weak imitation of Bloodraven (and therefore, the fact that Bloodraven is alive will end up biting Varys in the behind). Admittedly, we know little about each of them in comparison to some of our other characters (and it's impossible to say, 100%, what each man's ultimate goal is at this point); but from what we've seen, Varys seems to mimic, intentionally or not, Bloodraven's tactics and strengths---but as he simply doesn't have the same abilities, his efforts come across, by virtue of the comparison, as relatively weak and amateurish (at least, in ways that I don't think they would had Bloodraven not entered the scene). The reveal that Bloodraven still lives casts all of Varys's actions into a perspective that wouldn't exist were Bloodraven actually dead (and off "the gameboard"), but the fact that he is alive means that what at first looked clever suddenly looks foolish, and what at first looked powerful suddenly looks weak and impotent.

Varys is (purportedly) a eunuch, and uses that status to subconsciously convince the people operating in the macho culture of Westeros that he is no (true) threat (which explains why nobody admits to trusting him yet almost everyone who interacts with him seems to end up trusting him in one way or another). The one-eyed Bloodraven has joined the Night's Watch and wed the trees, symbolicly sacrificing his sexual ability (in the sense of him swearing off the ability to father children and "marrying" something that can't produce mini-Bloodravens), and I doubt it's coincidental that when Bran first sees him, one of the weirwood roots surrounding him has "burrowed through his breeches into the desiccated flesh of his thigh". In some ways, Varys's eunuch status conveys a benefit to his scheming---people see what they expect to see, so Varys's various "manly" (i.e., non-eunuch) disguises/personas frequently go unnoticed; moreover, the cultural dislike of eunuchs allows Varys to occupy the "not a threat" category in people's minds even in instances where, logically, they really should realize the danger he poses. However, this begs the question of how much Varys actually gained, power-wise, by becoming a eunuch (if he is in fact a eunuch), and whether the benefit of becoming a eunuch outweighed the cost, especially as compared to the benefits Bloodraven received by his "castration".

The idea of sacrificing a part of your body in exchange for tangible power is a pretty prevalent idea when discussing the skinchangers of Westeros: not only is this how the skinchangers (frequently) learn to control and increase their powers, but it's also a key idea associated with one of Bloodraven's clear mythological prototypes: Odin the All-Father, who sacrificed part of his body (his eye) at the Well of Mimir in exchange for knowledge. But Bloodraven's symbolic (and possibly literal) "castration" is inextricably tied to Bloodraven's incredible increase in personal power (as a greenseer), something that I don't think we can say about Varys's castration (at least, certainly not to such an incredible extent). Varys's (purported) impotence has gained him no new source of tangible power, while Bloodraven's "impotence" gains him the powers of a greenseer. Varys might believe that his eunuch status conveys a benefit, and to some degree it does----but there's a strong argument that that benefit (being underestimated by some people sometimes) is more than outweighed by the cost (being unable to father children, a pretty huge issue if Varys does turn out to be one of the last remaining Blackfyres; and being hated and despised by everyone means that Varys can only ever operate via trickery, as nobody will support his schemes due to personally supporting him), especially in comparison to Bloodraven, whose "castration" gains for him actual abilities he could not previously exercise.

We've seen that Varys uses mummery to disguise his physical appearance, even creating false identities (Rugen, for example), but this accomplishment pales in comparison to what we've seen from Bloodraven: Bloodraven can transform his physical appearance in far more complete ways (if the idea that Maynard Plumm was a disguised Bloodraven in TMK is true), via magic, than Varys has ever shown himself capable of---to say nothing of Bloodraven's ability to physically transfer his spirit into other "skins" and "become" actual animals and trees. The idea of disguise appears to be a pretty huge aspect of both men's plotting, but Varys is only capable of a few paltry (in comparison) outward disguises, while Bloodraven's abilities far outstrip Varys's as Bloodraven can actually become different people/animals/things.

Varys chooses a metaphorical "dead man" with grey hands (Jon Connington---once believed dead by the world, now a "dead man walking" due to incurable, terminal greyscale) to protect and guide Aegon. Bloodraven chooses a literal dead man with black hands (Coldhands) to protect and guide Bran. Now it's worth noting that we don't get Coldhands's POV while we do get Connington's, but I think it's certainly relevant that while Coldhands verbally describes Bloodraven as "A friend. Dreamer, wizard, call him what you will", Connington's description of Varys is very, very different:

What does a eunuch know of a man's honor? Griff had gone along with the Spider’s scheme for the boy’s sake, but that did not mean he liked it any better. Let me live long enough to see the boy sit the Iron Throne, and Varys will pay for that slight and so much more. Then we’ll see who’s soon forgotten.

Varys's scheme seems to involve putting a guy who wants to kill him into the exact position (Hand of the King) whereby he can actually order Varys's death! Bloodraven has an actual dead man calling him "friend", and that dead man successfully brings Bran safely to Bloodraven with no actual harm caused to Bloodraven, while Varys has an ordinary man bringing Aegon "to him" (i.e., to Varys at the Red Keep), and is executing a plan seemingly geared into putting that man into one of the only two positions in Westeros which allow Connington to order Varys's death. This . . . could end badly for Varys. Bloodraven is being aided by an apparent pseudo-wight, while facing the potential onslaught of the wight-creating Others---Varys is being aided by a walking plague-carrier whose mere presence seems likely to cause as much disease-related harm to his own people as to his enemies. Looking at Bloodraven/Coldhands, and comparing this "partnership" vis a vis Bran to the Varys/Connington "partnership" vis a vis Aegon, Bloodraven comes across as much more in control and powerful than does Varys.

Both Varys and Bloodraven are surrounded by freaky-ass children who spend their time in the darkness beneath the earth---Varys by traumatized, tongueless children who spy in the walls and live in the darkness of the tunnels beneath the Red Keep, Bloodraven by the Children of the Forest who live in the darkness of the cave systems beneath the earth. But whereas Varys's children (very notably) cannot speak, Bloodraven's Children derive their power from their voices---from their singing. Varys can't risk his "little birds" keeping their tongues---Bloodraven's actual "little birds", the ravens, are powerful tools in part because they can speak (we're told that, in the past, the ravens would actually speak when delivering messages). Whose "children" (and whose "little birds") are more powerful? Varys's children in their artificially imposed silence, or the Children who sing the songs of earth? Varys's "little birds" or Bloodraven's actual birds? The epilogue of ADWD showed Varys's "children", armed with daggers, gearing up to finish off Kevan Lannister. Especially in the secret-passage-strewn Red Keep, an army of children ready to commit murder would seem like a powerful thing . . . but what if the Children ascend from their hidden places? The former becomes way less threatening when compared to the prospect of the latter. And someone who can literally see through the eyes of actual birds is far more powerful, and far more dangerous, than someone who relies on secondhand reports from children he only calls "birds".

In a literary sense, we "see" Bloodraven (or at least, images associated with him) throughout the world: from Oldtown,

At the top of the steps, a pale blond youth about Sam’s age sat outside a door of oak and iron, staring intently into a candle flame with his right eye. His left was hidden beneath a fall of ash blond hair.

to Slaver's Bay,

“One thousand,” bid the grotesque fat man.

“And one.” The crone again.

to the Inn of the Kneeling Man in the Riverlands,

They made an unlikely trio; a lumbering brown plow horse, an ancient white gelding blind in one eye, and a knight's palfrey, dapple grey and spirited.

to the Red Keep,

Two of his men followed close behind him; a black-haired black-eyed sellsword who moved like a stalking cat, and a gaunt youth with an empty socket where one eye should have been.

and more besides. Though we do not see "him" in person outside of his hollow hill, Bloodraven's "presence" is nevertheless felt in a variety of areas throughout the world---even when he's not actually there, readers still feel like he's there, watching, waiting. The same cannot be said for Varys. In AGOT, he tells Illyrio that

Stannis Baratheon and Lysa Arryn have fled beyond my reach

So Dragonstone and the Eyrie are somehow "beyond the reach" of the great Spider? There's been a lot of discussion in this thread in the past day or so about the extent of Varys's spy network: personally, I tend to lean towards the idea that Varys vastly overestimates his spying capabilities to his employers so as to preserve the idea of his power (and therefore, his irreplacability). We keep hearing people talk about the power and pervasiveness of Varys's spy network, but when it comes to Varys's demonstrated knowledge, we see precious little evidence that the network nearly as large or powerful as people assume it is. But compared to the literal and literary omnipresence of Bloodraven, Varys's spy network, even by the most generous estimation of its power, starts looking rather weak and paltry.

The scene Arya witnesses in the tunnels between Varys and Illyrio reminds me of something from Jon's vision of Bran in ACOK, and given Bran's association with Bloodraven, that comparison seems singularly appropriate to this discussion. Jon's vision---of Bran in a weirwood tree, growing from stone, surrounded by death---sounds like a pretty accurate depiction of what eventually happened in ADWD when Bran became a full greenseer: he ended up "in" a weirwood tree, growing out of a stone cave, surrounded by death (the wights that surround(ed) Bloodraven's cave). But remember what Bran "said" to Jon in that same vision?

Don't be afraid, I like it in the dark. No one can see you, but you can see them.

Now look at the scene where Arya is trailing Illyrio and Varys in the dark tunnels beneath the Red Keep:

Still as stone, Arya told herself, quiet as a shadow. Blinded by the blaze of their own torch, they did not see her pressed flat against the stone, only a few feet away.

Arya, the skinchanger, (en route to becoming No One), hides in the darkness, seeing but not being seen. Varys (and Illyrio) presumably intend for the darkness beneath the earth to hide their plotting, but this scene demonstrates that they do not actually control this space---they can't see what's hiding in that darkness, listening to everything they say. (And given that Arya followed that oh-so-suspicious cat down into the tunnels, well---Bloodraven might literally have "an eye" down there with Varys). During this scene, Varys is dressed in a disguise, walking in the darkness beneath the earth: symbolically, he's illustrating the elements of his power base. But 9-year-old Arya Stark thinks there's something familiar about Varys---his disguise is incomplete, inferior. And Arya, crouched in the darkness, overhears everything Varys (and Illyrio) say---just as Varys is discussing his "powers" of spycraft, while being referred to as a wizard and a sorcerer, he's inadvertently being spied upon by at least one person who will end up as a wizard/sorcerer. Varys believes that this space--the darkness beneath the earth---is his place of power. But Arya's presence there, (led by the cat that many have speculated is one of Bloodraven's "eyes"), puts a lie to that belief. Varys, who puts himself forward as the Great Spymaster, is himself being spied upon by the very same thing he prides himself on controlling---a child hidden in the darkness. I can think of no more accurate way for GRRM to highlight the idea that, hey, Varys isn't actually as powerful or in control as he pretends to be.

Vary's terminology change from "mice" in Essos to "birds" in Westeros makes sense from a practical standpoint----Varys speaks openly about the existence of his "little birds" (though he leaves out their exact nature, of course), and since mice are known for living in the walls, speaking openly about having "little mice" would too easily plant the idea in people's minds of Varys having actual spies in the actual walls. (And if Varys is a Blackfyre . . . well, given the fact that Bloodraven led the arrow volley that killed Daemon Blackfyre and his two oldest sons, not to mention led the march on Whitewalls that stopped the Second Blackfyre Rebellion before it could get started, coupled with Bloodraven's "evil sorcerer" reputation, I'd imagine that generations of Blackfyre children were probably told that if they were naughty, Bloodraven would come and eat them. :) If Varys is indeed a Blackfyre, then his choice of tactics might be him intentionally seeking to copy Bloodraven (not knowing Bloodraven really was a sorcerer, and not knowing Bloodraven is still alive), under the idea that Bloodraven repeatedly kicked the Blackfyre Pretenders' collective derrieres, so perhaps utilizing "the enemy's" tactics might be a smart route to take. (This would also explain why Varys embraced the role of spymaster, but never sought to become Hand of the King under any of the kings he served---being the spymaster brought Bloodraven power, but adding on the Hand office led to his "defeat" via Maekar's hatred/jealousy, so Varys might be trying to learn from both Bloodraven's perceived successes and his perceived failures.) Varys might easily have begun speaking of his "little birds", not just because birds are associated with the transference of knowledge in Westeros in ways that they are not associated with in Essos, but also as a subtle "fuck you" to the (supposed) memory of bird-associated-Bloodraven.)

[ihatebrienne]

Varys and Bloodraven? You've got lots of imagination I'd say

[Ice Turtle]

About Varys and ravens, if he had enough maesters from minor houses working for him, he would be able to use existing raven network without too much suspicion.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Ok, if I were setting this up, I would not be keeping them longterm at any place necessarily. I would sent out my mutes every couple of weeks or so with said cages to replenish the shipment to my mute bird keepers depending on how often Varys gets his reports. I honestly do not think that a guy travelling with a cage of birds-- or even storing birds in an indoor location-- would be problematic. I don't get why anyone would be suspicious of a guy with birds. And we're not talking about peacocks here, but birds that actually do survive in the cold and are common to Westeros. Ravens were brought on that ranging, which was a lot of outdoor time in the coldest environment we've seen.

In Westerosi society, barely anybody travels and villages are small. Everybody knows everbody. There are three kinds of strangers:

- Merchants, but they are obvious and pass by regularly

- Visitors and and retainers of the Lord, and they travel to the castle immediately

- criminals, robbers and the like, these guys hide and should be reported to the Lord before someone gets robbeb, raped or/and murdered.

These bird handlers would fall in category 3 right away. Especially if he is mute. Even more if he travels with a bunch of non-edible birds.

Sam kept his birds at a fire whenever possible. And it was just a few weeks in these cramped wicker cages. That's dealable for the birds.

I suspect that there are several routine reports that get sent by raven. Tax revenues, the Kings justice, birth and death notices for nobles, etc. It seems Varys has done the bookkeeping for Illyn Payne. This means that any standard reports typically sent to the Kings Justice could contain messages for Varys from his spies. He could also have one noble or more nobles in KL getting routine correspondence that contain coded messages either with or without their knowledge. He may also be using a variation of his original scheme to transcribe other people's letters and therefore have his spies send the information to other people in KL that Varys has ready access to their letter storage. Using a castle in quick riding distance of KL is another option. If he sends messages there is nothing suspicious in getting a reply. The coded message part is a possibility in all of these. So he could be using the existing raven system right under everyone's noses. The idea of him planting a few ravens to be dropped off as part of the usual raven exchange is not an impossibility. These ravens are being returned to multiple castles throughout the kingdom all the time. He only needs one bird stashed someplace near each vital spy in case of emergency. Remember, he didn't set up shop last week. He's had around 20 years to establish his network.

I doubt that there are a lot of these messages, or any if we refer to the Kings Justice. Maybe births, marriages and deaths of important nobles, but not much else. And there aren't a lot of castles close to KL. Only Stokeworth and Rosby - with way smaller rookeries.

It actually wouldn't surprise me if Varys -- and past Masters of Whisperers -- had access to the King's Landing rookery. That post requires quick access to information, and it seems like ravens are the fastest way to transmit news in Westeros (unless you're able to tap into the weirwood network). Giving the Master of Whisperers access to ravens might have been part of the deal the early Targaryen monarchs struck with the Citadel when the Iron Throne, Red Keep, and Small Council were first formed/built.

And it doesn't have to be an extensively large raven network. I'm thinking the vicinity of regional capitals (Winterfell, the Eyrie, etc.), the seats of important non-paramount lords (the Twins, Starfall, etc.) and the few cities that Westeros has (Oldtown, Lannisport, White Harbor) would suffice to get critical information back to King's Landing. That would be around 20-30 birds, which I don't think would be outrageously expensive or difficult to maintain.

Well, the KL end of the line is reasonably easy, but I doubt whether many lords would approve being spied upon and these guys seem to know what's happening in the vicinity of their castles.

About Varys and ravens, if he had enough maesters from minor houses working for him, he would be able to use existing raven network without too much suspicion.

That's a big if. And how would these maesters form minor houses (we are still talking about Bolton level) get the spy reports from let's say Winterfell hundreds or thousands of miles away?

To sum it up, I can't imagine how anybody could build a raven network against the Lords wishes.

[Dark Heart]

I love Varys / Bloodraven comparison.

It's an amazing analysis.

When I was reading the part about the dwarfs who went through the shaft to take the dragon egg in the "They Mystery Knight", I had to think about "little birds".

And how different Bloodraven and Varys are.

Bloodraven found dwarf agents and employed them (who knows? They might have had a day job listening in the Red Keep the rest of the times), Varys enslaves and mutilate children.

[Ice Turtle]

That's a big if. And how would these maesters form minor houses (we are still talking about Bolton level) get the spy reports from let's say Winterfell hundreds or thousands of miles away?

It would be enough if they were sending rumors and messages from other agents from their area. With enough maesters Varys would be able to cover rather large part of Westeros.