551 replies to this topic

[Lummel]

It is simple, but not easy.  And yes GRRM is playing on the pretender theme.   Yes, one can imagine all kinds of scenarios, but the chain of unlikely events that you have to believe in for the scenarios to work gets ever longer.  All of the scenarios in which Aegon is the real son of Rhaegar yet no word of his being alive have leaking out are considerably more difficult to achieve are considerably more difficult to achieve than any number of fake Aegon scenarios.

And no, we would be talking about a team of people to look after an infant Aegon not a single mother alternative. This is meant to be a royal child and if it was worth the risk of smuggling him out it would be worth the risk of keeping him alive not abandoning him with a wet nurse somewhere.

Either Jaime's testimony was correct and Varys was surprised when he learnt that the gates were being opened to let the Lannisters in, in which case he has to rush around immediately, find a decoy and get the baby out and the decoy in in the time that it would take Gregor Clegane to get from the gates to the royal apartments or Jaime was fooled by the master actor who had secretly anticipated that Pycelle would persuade Aerys to open the gates and had therefore persuaded Ella that it was sufficiently dangerous that she should swap her son for another, but not so dangerous that she or her daughter should be lined up to escape, identified a decoy, made arrangements for a wet nurse and a guard, arranged passage out and then got them out and then ensured that the decoy was rendered unrecognisable.

And even then it remains a mystery why the child was not taken to it's grandmother and the last loyal retainers on Dragonstone but instead smuggled out to nowhere.

It is all potentially possibly, but the alternatives are far simpler.

In addition Aegon is Rhaegar's son scenarios make the known treatment of Daenerys and Viserys by Illyrio and Varys difficult to understand.  A muted expectation that Daenerys would probably die and associating a barely sane Viserys with a horde of murdering, slaving, raping Dothraki - who would make a great noise, devastate the countryside but fail to take any castle, makes much more sense in the context of an Aegon the saviour swooping in to rescue the country from both incestuous Lannisters and his insane Targaryen 'uncle', makes much more sense if Aegon was a fake and the Targaryen children therefore potential rivals for power.

[King Zee]

Suzanna Stormborn, on 25 February 2013 - 08:44 AM, said:

I feel like if him and Dany ever meet she would be able to tell if he is real or not.  I think her dragons would be able to tell.

her dragons would be able to tell what ?  if he's a Blackfyre then he has as much Targ blood as Danerys. do you expect the dragons to diffrentiate  legitimate  targs from bastad targs ?

Edited by King Zee, 25 February 2013 - 03:12 PM.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

King Zee, on 25 February 2013 - 03:12 PM, said:

her dragons would be able to tell what ?  if he's a Blackfyre then he has as much Targ blood as Danerys. do you expect the dragons to diffrentiate  legitimate  targs from bastad targs ?

No I just think if he is all around fake, like not a targeyen at all then dany/her dragons will be able to tell.  I'm not sure how, a 6th sense for family members or something.
If he is a blackfyre then i don't see what the huge problem is.  And since the throne was usurped from the targaryens, It can be Usurped from the Baratheons/Lannisters.  So it really makes no difference if he is Rhaegar's son or not.  All that matters is whether or not his invading sellswords and JC are strong enough to take King's Landing.  if they are then his lineage won't matter.

[Lord Varys]

The story Aegon was told makes the dead baby a child of a mother from Pisswater Bend sold to Varys. This may be hogwash, since Varys would probably have told Illyrio to fetch a slave child with valyrian features from the Free Cities, the whole thing indicates that the child swap may have been sold to Elia as some kind of protection in case the city should fall. Varys could have approached Elia after the news about the Trident had reached the city. Varys may have already had made a plan to mold little Aegon in the ideal king, but the whole charade may have appeared to anyone involved just as a precaution for the worst case scenario.

If the doppelgänger child resembled Aegon closely enough, no one would find out the truth. False Aegon could play the role of real Aegon as long as necessary. Prince Aegon could have been declared King Aegon VI Targaryen after all, if things had turned out differently, and even if Robert had ascended the Iron Throne, Prince Aegon could have survived the war as a hostage.

All Varys needed to do was arrange the child's death, and blame somebody else.

[The Real Summer Islander]

Dany is tptwp... Azor ahai.. and whatever.. mirri maz duur tears and drogos pyre equal salt and smoke.. not to mention the dragons... As to the dragon having 3 heads, they were viserys dany and Jon. Aegon is a fake. It makes zero sense to not let dany and viserys know about aegon, or even robert.. he didnt go after dany till he found out she was preggers, and never went after viserys, the supposed targ heir at he time. Just doesn't make any sense for a true targ to just pop up. Especially when u know about conningtons past wih the golden company and the blackfyres.

[Woftis]

I recently had a look at the time line of events and there is 4 years from GoT up until Arya kills Dareon.

From this, we know Jon is now 17-18. When Aegon is introduced, he's described as looking around 15-16 although he's supposed to be a year older than Jon (putting him in the 18-19 range)

Is it possible that Aegon just looks 4 years younger than he really is or that Tyrion misjudged his age does this clinch it?

Surely there must have been some relevance to Tyrion observing how old he looked.

I know it's a bit of a long shot, what's your thoughts?

EDIT: figures updated as they were slightly inaccurate

Edited by woftis, 15 March 2013 - 08:42 AM.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

woftis, on 15 March 2013 - 07:07 AM, said:

I recently had a look at the time line of events and there is 4 years from GoT up until Arya kills Dareon.

From this, we know Jon is now 18-19. When Aegon is introduced, he's described as looking around 15-16 although he's supposed to be a year older than Jon (putting him in the 19-20 range)

Is it possible that Aegon just looks 4 years younger than he really is or that Tyrion misjudged his age does this clinch it?

Surely there must have been some relevance to Tyrion observing how old he looked.

I know it's a bit of a long shot, what's your thoughts?

That's not a bad point, I was wondering about his age as well.  he does seem sort of young.  Def younger than Jon.

[Lykos]

woftis, I used the same arguement to show that Aegon is fake and people rightly pointed out that Tyrion judged Jon twelve years old in "Game", when he was fourteen.

Quote

Tyrion sighed. "You are remarkably polite for a bastard, Snow. What you see is a dwarf. You are what, twelve?"
"Fourteen," the boy said.

So this doesn´t really lead anywhere, also are you sure about the four years? August 24/08/298 GOT Jon´s birthday. (fifteenth)   March 04/03/301 AFFC Arya kills Dareon, becomes blind.  The ADWD timeline is tricky, but I don´t think that much more than half a year elapsed.  So Aegon should be nineteen and Tyrion judges him three or more years younger , while he judges Jon almost three years younger.

[Vengeance]

Jon is 17 at most, only about 2 1/2 years (3 at a push) have elapsed since the beginning of Game of Thrones.

Edited by Vengeance, 15 March 2013 - 08:20 AM.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

Vengeance, on 15 March 2013 - 08:18 AM, said:

Jon is 17 at most, only about 2 1/2 years (3 at a push) have elapsed since the beginning of Game of Thrones.

Then Rickon is 7 not 6 for the other thread.

[Woftis]

Lykos, on 15 March 2013 - 07:47 AM, said:

So this doesn´t really lead anywhere, also are you sure about the four years? August 24/08/298 GOT Jon´s birthday. (fifteenth)   March 04/03/301 AFFC Arya kills Dareon, becomes blind.  The ADWD timeline is tricky, but I don´t think that much more than half a year elapsed.  So Aegon should be nineteen and Tyrion judges him three or more years younger , while he judges Jon almost three years younger.

So from this birthday, it looks like Jon will be 18 in a couple of months. The 4 years was based on Aegon being 19 (but looking 15-16 so taking the more extreme gap).

Vengeance, on 15 March 2013 - 08:18 AM, said:

Jon is 17 at most, only about 2 1/2 years (3 at a push) have elapsed since the beginning of Game of Thrones.

As Lykos mentioned, we are currently in 301AL; GOT was set in 297AL so it's ~4 years.

[Robinvanpersie]

It's possible that Rhaeger foisted a doppelganger on Elia much earlier in the piece. Aerys was holding Elia and the kids hostage to prevent Rhaeger from turning on him. So it's possible that Rhaeger (with Varys) located a kid, swapped them, sent Aegon somewhere else (even the Tower of Joy?) before or even during Robert's war. Aerys isn't really stable, and Rhaeger would want his heir safe.

Also, having baby Aegon at the Tower of Joy would explain presence of the kingsguard that does without the need for R+L=J.