The Dagger hired to kill Bran

[Neddy's Girl]

@GrimReaper

It does seem that LF doesn't know why Cat has brought the dagger, which makes him seem more believable to her. However, I don't know if this is a bluff as Rodrik has been asking Aron Santagar about it and Varys gets wind of this, so maybe LF too?

If not, though, I think it shows just how LF is ready to take advantage of any situation to turn it to his favour. Probably how he has risen so far.

Interesting point about destroying the noble houses. I've got him down as the major baddy, but maybe he's a champion for democracy, trying to bring about political change in Westeros!

[Starkbringer]

The "it was Joffrey theory" is explained in ASOS beginning in a Sansa POV when King Joff is receiving his wedding gifts. It continues in to the very next chapter which happens to be a Tyrion POV. From reading these two chapters it is pretty clear that Tyrion has reasoned it out. Afterall, he was the one accused of the crime, almost died for it and he would be the one person who really wanted to get to the truth.

As to why Lysa sent the secret letter to Cat accusing Lannisters of killing Jon Arryn, it seems to me that once Little Finger had Lord Arryn out of his way he knew his next challenge would be Ned Stark so he has Lysa send the letter hoping Ned would take the bait and he did. Both LF and Varys knew Cercei hated Robert and would find a way to rid herself of him so getting rid of Lord Stark was the last step in clearing the way for a war that would wipe out all of his remaining enemies and/or keep them busy so he could continue his evil plot. He has also managed to cover his tracks (except for Sansa) thereby remaining in the good graces of the Throne in case it all goes wrong. What ends he hopes to accomplish I don't know but he is off to a good start.

[GrimReaper]

@GrimReaper

It does seem that LF doesn't know why Cat has brought the dagger, which makes him seem more believable to her. However, I don't know if this is a bluff as Rodrik has been asking Aron Santagar about it and Varys gets wind of this, so maybe LF too?

If not, though, I think it shows just how LF is ready to take advantage of any situation to turn it to his favour. Probably how he has risen so far.

Interesting point about destroying the noble houses. I've got him down as the major baddy, but maybe he's a champion for democracy, trying to bring about political change in Westeros!

Oh, I don't think that Varys knew about the attack either. All we know is that Ser Rodrik was enquiring about the dagger, Rodrik may not have told Aron Santagar WHY he was asking about the dagger. I think both Varys and LF get to know about the Bran attack only later. As for LF wanting to take advantage of any situation -- well, we know from Tyrion that "lying comes to Littlefinger as easily as breathing." It's an accomplished art, and LF has surely practised it, as you say, to rise through office.

Haha, I still think LF is a smart baddie, I don't know about democracy, but I suspect he will rise to highest office only when the other big Houses are out of the picture, which may be what he wants. :devil:

[Caucasian_rodent]

I too doubt that Joffrey hired the assassin, or at least that he was the person who initiated the whole thing.

For one, essentially this:

are we sure it was Joffrey who did it? i mean Tyrion assumes it was him but the only evidence he has is that Joffrey said he is no stranger to valyrian steel or something like that, and the blade in question is valyrian steel.

Also, there's a non-semantic reason why I find it difficult to believe that it was Joffrey: there have been lots of interactions between Tyrion and Joffrey since the attack on Bran. Curiously enough, Tyrion realizes that it must have been Joffrey - in a situation where he can't possibly say it aloud and confirm it - on the same day Joffrey dies. Afterwards Tyrion doesn't get another chance to confirm his suspicion. So the idea of Joffrey being behind the attack gets introduced as late as possible. I think if Martin intended to conclude the whole assassination topic he would have made it clear in an unambiguous way, maybe actually let Joffrey say it himself or some such thing. (Of course Joffrey didn't really have any reasons to talk about Valyrian steel before he gets the sword as a present, but I think Martin could easily have created a suitable situation earlier to let Tyrion notice.)

What we do know is that Joffrey reacts strangely to Tyrion's comment, which Tyrion takes as confirmation of his suspicions. However, it is possible that Joffrey was still somehow involved in the dagger incident without having plotted it - then again, we don't find out.

This is just a speculation, but maybe the way Joffrey points at Tyrion before he dies is connected to that as well, I have no idea how though.

I found this catch to be very interesting:

On the re-read catch this: Maester Luwin tells Ned and Cat a carved wooden box was left in his chamber while he was asleep and no one saw who left it. It's the box with the Myrish lens that contains Lysa's hidden message accusing the Lannisters of murdering Jon Arryn. This is before Bran falls.

This obviously means Lysa/Littlefinger have an unknown operative inside Winterfell and maybe it's their catspaw that tries to murder Bran. I kinda think the big bag of the would be assassin's silver they find hidden in the stable points more toward Littlefinger.

I think this is highly likely. I remember that the assassin said something along the lines of "You shouldn't be here" when he saw Catelyn in Bran's room. This remark wasn't explained afterwards and it seemed like a meaningful statement. Why shouldn't she be there? Well, there is the fire, but it doesn't seem strange that a mother will stay with her comatose son in such a situation and the fact that Catelyn stayed at Bran's side all the time wasn't exactly kept secret.

This statement may suggest that the assassin assumed that Bran was healthy and therefore alone in his room since he's old enough to not need anyone to stay with him. However, if someone who arrived with the king send the assassin, then he should have known about Bran's condition. (If he's a minor catspaw, and apparently hid himself, maybe he didn't hear the news of Bran, despite being closeby? I'm not sure on this, though.)

This implies that Bran's assassination might actually have been planned before his fall and the closeness in time between fall and assassination is just coincidental. This closeness might just make it seem as if his fall was connected with the assassination.

What confuses me is that Littlefinger was surprised at Catelyn's revelation about the dagger. This reaction could have been staged of course, but I would expect Littlefinger to invent a less risky lie than he did about Tyrion. Like this it indeed comes off as him inventing it on the fly.

This is again very speculative, but if the lens was send from Lysa, maybe she was the one behind Bran's assassination or at least its details, so LF wouldn't know anything about a Valyrian dagger?

[MichaelMertyns]

Would LF have sent an assassin knowing that it was very likely Catelyn would have been there and risked getting killed? He knows Catelyn better than anyone that she would not leave Bran's bedside. I don't think he would act so haphazardly.

I don't think personally that LF would ever hurt Catelyn in that way either. He's protective of all the Stark younguns.

Other than that I think its a pretty good theory.

[Dryhtscipe]

Regarding the attempt on Bran, I'm pretty sure Joff attempted to have him killed purely because Tyrion slapped him. He was humiliated; he lashed out. It was very much his pattern.

[isiman]

Sorry for the edit! Just getting used to this!

I'm now starting to have doubts that it was Joff as IIRC there are only the 2 pieces of evidence that point towards him and both are circumstantial. He could just be boasting when he speaks of Valyrian steel. And, I'm not sure it is in his character to seek approval from Robert as Cersei says; I can much more see him trying to impress "Uncle" Jaime.

So I think this leaves some room for doubt; however, it may well have been Joff, it's just this thread got me thinking.

Actually it is completely in Joff's character to seek approval from Robert, we have various hints of this in the the books;once he even cuts open a cat to impress his "father" not understanding of course that this would surely not please Robert.Furthermore, him insisting on kicking Ser Barristan from the KG and his fight with Tywin in ASOS points to the same conclusion.He admires Robert's martial power and wants to be a strong warrior like him, also he craves attention/love from his parents, something he never really expierenced in a correct way.

[silentstark]

I hope it was Joffery, I think it this might be the only sad insight to his character that we have if it's true, the fact that he would have a little boy killed just to try and please his father. While scary psychopath still it kind of let's you see why he's so crazy, his motivation is so pathetic to seek approval from a King who unwitting basically disowned him as not being enough his son. It's the only moment where I almost feel bad for Joffery... almost.

That being said I think it was just more quick thinking of Littlefinger to keep stirring up more strife (sine he knew of the Letter Lysa sent Cat) and Stark vs. Lannister business.

[Caucasian_rodent]

I hope it was Joffery, I think it this might be the only sad insight to his character that we have if it's true, the fact that he would have a little boy killed just to try and please his father. While scary psychopath still it kind of let's you see why he's so crazy, his motivation is so pathetic to seek approval from a King who unwitting basically disowned him as not being enough his son. It's the only moment where I almost feel bad for Joffery... almost.

I am not saying that this wouldn't be interesting, but for some reason I can't see Joffrey like that. True, there was the incident with the cat when Joffrey was a child. This was a long time ago, though, and Joffrey's view might have changed since then. Apart from this and the assassination I don't remember any other time where Joffrey's behavior could have been interpreted as trying to get Robert's approval. Since we don't get a Joffrey POV it's hard to find out. But we do get POVs of Cersei, Jaime and Tyrion, some of his closest relatives. Somehow I think that if Joffrey really strived to get Robert's approval that a few more hints would have been dropped in these.

Also, from what we know it wasn't really that difficult to get Robert's approval and love. He was very loving towards his other children and I think, even if Joffrey isn't that smart, Joffrey would have picked up on that and found out how to please Robert. There would have been plenty of occasions to please him, why pick the assassination?

And most importantly: Robert doesn't find out who was behind the assassination. Of course Joffrey might not have wanted him to because it failed... but even if it succeeded - I don't think Joffrey would have been dumb enough to tell his father about him having have the son of the King's hand killed.

So if Joffrey didn't intend Robert to find out, he can't possibly have aimed for Robert's approval here.

[gash]

this whole plot point was very odd i thought, like GRRM meant for it to be some big thing, then decided against it and as an afterthought threw in a few lines about it a few books later.

[Tylenol]

Ok, I am only have way through the first book and I read this forum, I did that because I just couldn't take the question any longer even though I had a good idea as to who the killer was.

I am defiantly saying LF is behind it all, and it is all part of his plan, however I do not know if the goal is catelyn stark or the iron throne.

First reason, the assassin. After watching many law and orders and criminal intent I have learned assassins don't take payment in the form of trinkets or weapons its cash or no deal. Mainly because fancy weapons and trinkets are evidence, traceable and can lead investigators to the truth. They prefer common tools of the trade, for GoT that would be common steal, forged in no special way, dirty but gets the job done. The only time an assassin would use a specific weapon is if it was by the clients request, and such a weapon would be left at the scene to direct the suspicion in the direction the client wants it to be directed.

Second reason - the stark daughter over hears talk about LF stirring up trouble when she hids in the dungeon, chasing cats I think.

Third reason - at some point varys is talking about people and the types you can and can't trust and he mentions something about ambitious people like LF are the most dangerous because they would rather burn down the world and rule the ashes rather than be followers. I don't know if he says LF but your given the impression the he is definitely talking about him.

I know I have not read as much as you guys but I have to say even what I read here seems to point more to a master plan orchestrated by LF, rather than LF taking advantage of events beyond his control. But, my question is, if he did send the assassin how did he know of brans fall? It's not like some one called him on the phone or sent a text. But, I find it hard to know just how much time has actually passed between chapters and events, so if LF did have a spy within the kings party at winterfell, then I suppose a raven might have had time to fly out and back with new orders.

[JimZipCode]

I too doubt that Joffrey hired the assassin, or at least that he was the person who initiated the whole thing.

...there's a non-semantic reason why I find it difficult to believe that it was Joffrey: there have been lots of interactions between Tyrion and Joffrey since the attack on Bran. Curiously enough, Tyrion realizes that it must have been Joffrey - in a situation where he can't possibly say it aloud and confirm it - on the same day Joffrey dies. Afterwards Tyrion doesn't get another chance to confirm his suspicion. So the idea of Joffrey being behind the attack gets introduced as late as possible. I think if Martin intended to conclude the whole assassination topic he would have made it clear in an unambiguous way, maybe actually let Joffrey say it himself or some such thing.

See, this to me is finally one of the things that clinches it for me.

The best reason to buy the theory is that Tyrion thinks Joffrey sent the dagger. Tyrion is by far the sharpest viewpoint we've had, and one of the sharpest observers in Westeros (next to Varys?). He's known Joffrey all of Joffrey's life, and also knows Cersei and Jaime better than anyone else does. If he's convinced, I'm 90% convinced.

Second, it makes sense. The dagger is the telling detail. A plain iron knife kills just as effectively as Valyrian steel. Anyone who is serious about getting the boy killed, and getting away with it, would send the plainest weapon possible. This flourish is the work either of someone who is trying to get the assassin caught, and the king's party implicated; or a dumb kid who doesn't know any better. That means either Littlefinger or Joffrey. And of the two, Joffrey is it for a ton of reasons. Littlefinger is not there, and does not have access. He can't exactly send a raven to Maester Luwin with instructions for an agent. Also Littlefinger has already sown his seeds of discord with Lysa's lens; he doesn't need an assassin. Plus he still loves Cat. He might kill Ned, but not Cat's children. Joffrey on the other hand: in addition to the "impress his father" bit that's been discussed, remember that Joffrey was also irritated by the Stark children. Later we find out what a psychopathic monster he was: he probably wanted to kill one. Most likely Robb; but Bran was the target of opportunity, and Bran was the one mentioned by King Robert, and Bran did knock over Tommen in the training yard. The plan is so pointless, and vindictive & mean, and stupidly executed: it has Joffrey's fingerprints all over it. That was an "a ha" moment for me, when I read the chapter where Tyrion puts it together.

But finally, and this is what you point out: the offhand way it's revealed, when it can finally make no difference whatsoever. That's a very "Martin" kind of effect. When the dagger is first sent, it seems like the most important thing in the world. Two books later, with Ned and Robb and Catelyn and Maester Luwin dead, along with all the smallfolk of Winterfell, and Joffrey too in another couple chapters, the world is totally different. The people who would have cared about that are all gone; it's a footnote to history. The only one who cares at all, who even remembers, is Tyrion. And that's when the mystery is finally solved.

This dynamic has played out with other things, like the mystery of who killed Jon Arryn. By the time we learn the answer, it doesn't matter anymore. I fear that's going to be the template for other compelling mysteries, like who Jon's parents are. That's what utterly clinches it for me. The near despair that comes with the answer: We finally know who sent the dagger! And oh, he's dead now. The emptiness and uselessness of the knowledge. It fits in exactly with the other themes of the books.

This is again very speculative, but if the lens was send from Lysa, maybe she was the one behind Bran's assassination or at least its details, so LF wouldn't know anything about a Valyrian dagger?

Motive - means - opportunity. Lysa is lacking all 3. The only things she cares about are (1) keeping Robert close to her, and (2) snagging Littlefinger. She has no access to the baggage train with the Valyrian steel dagger. The principal had to be someone travelling with King Robert's party. And frankly, Lysa is too incompetent to set up something like that without it being public knowledge.

No, the explanation we've been given is the accurate one. The fact that it is troubling & unsatisfying, I think that's a story effect, not an argument against it.

[Syrio.Forel]

See, this to me is finally one of the things that clinches it for me.

The best reason to buy the theory is that Tyrion thinks Joffrey sent the dagger. Tyrion is by far the sharpest viewpoint we've had, and one of the sharpest observers in Westeros (next to Varys?). He's known Joffrey all of Joffrey's life, and also knows Cersei and Jaime better than anyone else does. If he's convinced, I'm 90% convinced.

Second, it makes sense. The dagger is the telling detail. A plain iron knife kills just as effectively as Valyrian steel. Anyone who is serious about getting the boy killed, and getting away with it, would send the plainest weapon possible. This flourish is the work either of someone who is trying to get the assassin caught, and the king's party implicated; or a dumb kid who doesn't know any better. That means either Littlefinger or Joffrey. And of the two, Joffrey is it for a ton of reasons. Littlefinger is not there, and does not have access. He can't exactly send a raven to Maester Luwin with instructions for an agent. Also Littlefinger has already sown his seeds of discord with Lysa's lens; he doesn't need an assassin. Plus he still loves Cat. He might kill Ned, but not Cat's children. Joffrey on the other hand: in addition to the "impress his father" bit that's been discussed, remember that Joffrey was also irritated by the Stark children. Later we find out what a psychopathic monster he was: he probably wanted to kill one. Most likely Robb; but Bran was the target of opportunity, and Bran was the one mentioned by King Robert, and Bran did knock over Tommen in the training yard. The plan is so pointless, and vindictive & mean, and stupidly executed: it has Joffrey's fingerprints all over it. That was an "a ha" moment for me, when I read the chapter where Tyrion puts it together.

But finally, and this is what you point out: the offhand way it's revealed, when it can finally make no difference whatsoever. That's a very "Martin" kind of effect. When the dagger is first sent, it seems like the most important thing in the world. Two books later, with Ned and Robb and Catelyn and Maester Luwin dead, along with all the smallfolk of Winterfell, and Joffrey too in another couple chapters, the world is totally different. The people who would have cared about that are all gone; it's a footnote to history. The only one who cares at all, who even remembers, is Tyrion. And that's when the mystery is finally solved.

This dynamic has played out with other things, like the mystery of who killed Jon Arryn. By the time we learn the answer, it doesn't matter anymore. I fear that's going to be the template for other compelling mysteries, like who Jon's parents are. That's what utterly clinches it for me. The near despair that comes with the answer: We finally know who sent the dagger! And oh, he's dead now. The emptiness and uselessness of the knowledge. It fits in exactly with the other themes of the books.

Motive - means - opportunity. Lysa is lacking all 3. The only things she cares about are (1) keeping Robert close to her, and (2) snagging Littlefinger. She has no access to the baggage train with the Valyrian steel dagger. The principal had to be someone travelling with King Robert's party. And frankly, Lysa is too incompetent to set up something like that without it being public knowledge.

No, the explanation we've been given is the accurate one. The fact that it is troubling & unsatisfying, I think that's a story effect, not an argument against it.

*slow clap* awesome explanation. first time posting and this is worth posting for. now that I've popped my cherry, MORE POSTS TO POST!!!!

[Juli]

I think Lysa killed Jon to keep Little Robert with her...with LF whispering in her ear. I think the note to Cat was LF idea. Joff sent the man to kill Bran with one of the knives Robert carried in the wheelhouse that had been won from LF. If it had been Cersei's plan it would have been better carried out, but she had no reason. And she would have spoken to Jamie about it and Jamie would have done it himself. LF wanted the Lions and Wolves at war, it all fitted his plans.

[FacelessDude]

It was thought by Catelyn to be Tyrion's, that was the whole reason she took him as prisoner. Littlefinger lied and said it was Tyrion's, but he knew it wasn't. Bastard. Littlefinger knew it would stir up trouble between the Lannister's and Stark's.

[Will Snow]

One thing that's always puzzled me about the scene where LF tell's Cat that the dagger is Tyrion's, is Varys' presence, and subsequently, his silence. We are introduced to Varys a few paragraphs before the telling, and LF claims Varys knows about most things that happen in KL before they happen, so it's pretty safe to assume that he knows who the dagger currently belonged to (Robert). Later, in Arya's POV, we hear Varys tell Illyrio that the lion is at the wolf's throat (or something like that), to which Illyrio counters "delay." So if Varys and Illyrio don't want the Starks and the Lannisters at war just yet, why does Varys just stand there and let LF tell a blatant lie!?

I'm pretty positive Varys and LF are working against each other, but this scene almost seems to point to the contrary. Anyone got any insight?

[Ürglõvi]

One thing that's always puzzled me about the scene where LF tell's Cat that the dagger is Tyrion's, is Varys' presence, and subsequently, his silence. We are introduced to Varys a few paragraphs before the telling, and LF claims Varys knows about most things that happen in KL before they happen, so it's pretty safe to assume that he knows who the dagger currently belonged to (Robert). Later, in Arya's POV, we hear Varys tell Illyrio that the lion is at the wolf's throat (or something like that), to which Illyrio counters "delay." So if Varys and Illyrio don't want the Starks and the Lannisters at war just yet, why does Varys just stand there and let LF tell a blatant lie!?

I'm pretty positive Varys and LF are working against each other, but this scene almost seems to point to the contrary. Anyone got any insight?

You know, I'm feeling stupid right now. :D Why did I never think about it before?

One reason I can offer is that Varys was curious to see what Littlefinger was playing at. If his convo with Illyrio is anything to go by, he was unsure about LF's exact motives. (LF's motives not making much sense for a rational sane person.)

Also, it would have been his word against Catelyn's best friend's, which would have been ineffective and potentially hazardous to his health. Nobody trusts the spider.

About Joffrey and the dagger, what clinched it for me was both Jaime and Tyrion separately coming to the same conclusion. Why do that, if it isn't true? Even Cersei seemed convinced.

[King of the Road]

I won't ever believe that it was Joffrey who sent that assassin. It set the Starks and the Lannisters at each other's throats too perfectly, it stinks of Littlefinger.

[Ürglõvi]

I won't ever believe that it was Joffrey who sent that assassin. It set the Starks and the Lannisters at each other's throats too perfectly, it stinks of Littlefinger.

Even Littlefinger couldn't be in two places at once, or foresee Bran ''falling'' from the tower after witnessing the Lannisters' worst kept secret. He was in King's Landing at the time, remember?

Take it from someone who was all over this theory while reading AGoT. It just doesn't work.

[King of the Road]

Even Littlefinger couldn't be in two places at once, or foresee Bran ''falling'' from the tower after witnessing the Lannisters' worst kept secret. He was in King's Landing at the time, remember?

Take it from someone who was all over this theory while reading AGoT. It just doesn't work.

Well he could have used his teleporter.