405 replies to this topic

[J. Stargaryen]

Bear Island Bruiser, on 27 November 2012 - 01:59 PM, said:

Hmmm there are multiple hints that Jon is there but they can still all be answered by other ways.  There are also a number of questions the straight theory raises.  Again why does the KG fight Ned if Jon's there? They know he's not going to do him any harm so why fight? To kill your King's Uncle? Hardly going to set you up in his good books when he finds out.

We're five books into a seven book series; we shouldn't have all the answers yet, so it's not a surprise that we don't.

Quote

Equally we know that Aegon was smuggled out of KL (well if you believe Varys anyway) so where did he go? If the KG knew about it then they have to head to him. Plus why not tell them if you've done it? You instantly pick up 3 tough bodyguards.  If it's Varys or Rhaegar that smuggles Aegon out (does Varys actually say it was him that smuggled or just that Aegon was? genuine question there) they'd both know Dayne, Whent and Hightower well enough to know they could be trusted.

Taking the kid straight to Essos is pretty hard and Varys didn't leave Westeros as he's around to swear loyalty to Big Bob. Sure he can get someone else to take him but he'd need someone who he can trust not just anyone.  It will take time to find that person.  Equally we know Rhaegar isn't getting him out of the country.  So where's Aegon in the mean time? Pretty dangerous secret to have lying round KL.

Two more paragraphs of speculation. They can be added to the collection.

Do you know why we think Lyanna gave birth at the ToJ? Because there are hints and clues pointing us in that direction. Lyanna died in a bed of blood. MMD talks about the secrets of the bloody bed, which is a reference to childbirth. If we can reasonably assume that bloody bed = bed of blood, and I think we can, then that means Lyanna gave birth at the ToJ.

Quote

Actually true.  The Kings Guard doesn't pass judgement on the actions and decisions of the legitimate king, as to who that legitimate king is yes they decide.  For example Barristan decided that Big Bob was the King and swore service to him rather than go after Viserys. So for the KG to be there they have to have accepted that Jon is legitimate and the marriage was good (assuming it took place this is absolute conjecture as far as I'm concerned).  I can't see when the last polygamous marriage was so it's a bit of a step for them.

Arguing that they literally have a choice to keep their vows or not is just stating the obvious. What I don't see is how they could refuse to recognize the crown prince's marriage without breaking a few of their KG oaths, and maybe a law or two. Rhaegar performing a marriage ceremony is as good as ordering his subjects, including the KG, to recognize the bride as his legal wife, able to bear him legal heirs. Refusal to do so would be tantamount to refusing an order from the crown prince.

[Dragonfish]

Bear Island Bruiser, on 27 November 2012 - 01:59 PM, said:

Hmmm there are multiple hints that Jon is there but they can still all be answered by other ways.  There are also a number of questions the straight theory raises.  Again why does the KG fight Ned if Jon's there? They know he's not going to do him any harm so why fight?

This is a big assumption. What evidence would the Kingsguard have to conclude that Ned wouldn't harm the child? Remember, Ned is associated with the people who murdered Rhaegar's other children, and they may not know that Ned had a falling out with Robert over it.

Quote

Taking the kid straight to Essos is pretty hard

What? Taking the baby to Essos is a hell of a lot easier than taking him to the ToJ. Essos is just a short boat ride away, while the ToJ would require traveling overland, potentially across a warzone, or traveling by water to Starfall and then going the rest of the way on land.

Quote

and Varys didn't leave Westeros as he's around to swear loyalty to Big Bob. Sure he can get someone else to take him but he'd need someone who he can trust not just anyone.  It will take time to find that person.

He has Illyrio's resources, and Illyrio is much closer than the ToJ is. If Varys did smuggle Aegon out (which I don't believe, but this is purely for hypothetical purposes), then it makes much more sense that he took him to him.

Quote

Actually true.  The Kings Guard doesn't pass judgement on the actions and decisions of the legitimate king, as to who that legitimate king is yes they decide.  For example Barristan decided that Big Bob was the King and swore service to him rather than go after Viserys.

And Barristan believes he broke his oath in doing so. So why use him as an example? Especially since we are explicitly shown that the Kingsguard whom Ned found at the ToJ were still loyal to the Targaryens.

[Sasha Steelsong]

No tag? The first page looks off without some version of this topic on it.

[Apple Martini]

Aw it's not stickied!

Anyway as usual Dragonfish answers the way I would have — the Kingsguard had absolutely no way to know for sure that Ned wouldn't harm Jon, and it makes no sense to take a baby to Bumfudge, Dorne when Essos is that close, which is a huge reason why "the real Aegon was at the Tower of Joy" makes absolutely no sense to me at all and never has.

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

Where are the Mods? Doesn't this automatically get pinned to the top?

Edited by Winds of Winter blow cold, 28 November 2012 - 12:36 AM.

[Zupoleon]

Yeah, it feels like a bizzaro forum without this topic pinned...

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

It's going on to page 2! This is wrong just  wrong!

[Ygrain]

Sure, each and every hint can be interpreted in various ways - on its own. The fact that ALL the hints possess an interpretation that points in ONE single direction is hardly something that can be discounted.

[FrozenFire3]

Dragonfish, on 27 November 2012 - 07:33 PM, said:

This is a big assumption. What evidence would the Kingsguard have to conclude that Ned wouldn't harm the child? Remember, Ned is associated with the people who murdered Rhaegar's other children, and they may not know that Ned had a falling out with Robert over it.

This
And let's not forget the need for absolute secrecy in such a high risk/life-threatening situation.

Dragonfish, on 27 November 2012 - 07:33 PM, said:

He has Illyrio's resources, and Illyrio is much closer than the ToJ is. If Varys did smuggle Aegon out (which I don't believe, but this is purely for hypothetical purposes), then it makes much more sense that he took him to him.

As clearly demonstrated by Varys and Illyrio's secret meeting in GoT.

On another note and back to the never-ending facial features/colouring debate, I noted a little interesting bit while reading The Sworn Sword (Dunk and Egg 2).
Here is how Aegon/Egg's eyes are described:

In the dimness of the lamplit cellar they looked black, but in better light their true colour could be seen: deep and dark and purple

This is Rhaegar's eyes description (in Daenerys' HotU visions):

His eyes were a dark indigo rather than lilac

Lyanna is assumed to have grey eyes, a trait of the Starks (see comparison with Arya's)

Last but not least Jon's eyes description (GoT, Bran's point of view):

Jon's eyes were a grey so dark they seemed almost black

Hints anyone?

[dragontamer]

theguyfromtheVale, on 27 November 2012 - 03:03 PM, said:

1) We have read that very same letter in the preceding Davos chapter. Reading both Davos chapters after another, it's absolutely clear that the letter in question is the Night Watch's call for help.

2) But Jaime's Tysha reveal was foreshadowed ("Loved by one for a kindness I never did"). As was Tywin's hypocrisy regarding Tyrion's whoring (the tunnel to Chataya's built by a hand who didn't want to be seen as a John could only be one in Chataya's lifetime, and who had a tenure of some years - and the only two hands in questions are Jon Arryn or Tywin). The combination of these two indicated an explosive issue.

3) Mummer's Dragon does refer to someone fraudulently claiming to be a Targ. That's back from ACoK.

4) That's your only real point though, and the marriage pact was inconsequent, as we found out.

5) Who would be the father then?
Also, most of these hints regarding Jon being at the tower also hint at Rhaegar being the father...

1) Probably we understand the term foreshadowing differently, for I don’t count as foreshadow the fact that in one chapter Davos reads a letter whose sender he names and in the next chapter he gives Stannis a letter. There is no hint, no sign, no build-up.

2) It makes no sense for Jaime to mean Tysha when he speaks of a ‘kindness I never did”. Tyrion didn’t believe that Jaime did him any kindness concerning the Tysha issue.

3) The “mummer’s dragon” warning is offered by Quaithe in DWD not ACOK. In ACOK Danny sees the vision of a cloth dragon on poles and it’s she who interprets it as a mummer’s dragon but we still don’t know if the two are connected or if Danny’s interpretation of the vision is correct, it wouldn’t be the first time a pov character misreads the signs.

4) The disappointing outcome of the plan doesn’t alter the fact that there was no hint given. Also it proved that old sick Doran is still an active player and maybe one of the most cunning ones and the readers didn’t have a clue.

5) The only known connection between Rhaegar and Lyanna is Harrenhal. If you forget that and examine the clues about Jon’s parentage there are quiet few that point towards Lyanna as the mother but none towards Rhaegar. Then comes the question, if Lyanna is the mother who could be the father and it’s then you remember Harrenhal since there is absolutely no other candidate so it’s conclusive it has to be Rhaegar. But to accept that imo one has to overcome certain paradoxes that I can’t.   

Additionally I find very interesting the tale about Bael the Bard and the blue rose (symbol of lord Stark’s daughter who Bael stole as well as Lyanna’s, so maybe it’s a more general symbol of Stark daughters rather than a specific one for Lyanna) and LF’s name. It may be a happy coincidence that his real name is so rarely used but I wonder….

Edited by dragontamer, 28 November 2012 - 05:36 AM.

[Bear Island Bruiser]

dragontamer, on 28 November 2012 - 05:35 AM, said:

Additionally I find very interesting the tale about Bael the Bard and the blue rose (symbol of lord Stark’s daughter who Bael stole as well as Lyanna’s, so maybe it’s a more general symbol of Stark daughters rather than a specific one for Lyanna) and LF’s name. It may be a happy coincidence that his real name is so rarely used but I wonder….

I hadn't picked up on that.  It's interesting as I've seen the blue rose flowering at a wall of Ice image Dany had the HotU as proof of the R+L=J, which I agree is one possible argument, however if you tie it to Bael the Bard story and someone a bit like Bael the Bard you know a bit Bael-ish stealing away a Stark daughter..hmmmm sounds a bit familiar.

[dragontamer]

Bear Island Bruiser, on 28 November 2012 - 07:07 AM, said:

I hadn't picked up on that.  It's interesting as I've seen the blue rose flowering at a wall of Ice image Dany had the HotU as proof of the R+L=J, which I agree is one possible argument, however if you tie it to Bael the Bard story and someone a bit like Bael the Bard you know a bit Bael-ish stealing away a Stark daughter..hmmmm sounds a bit familiar.

Precisely, consider also that Robb is dead, Bran unable to have children and Rickon still too young. So if Jon is actually Lyanna's and LF's son, he will have to carry on the family name the same way the bastard son of Bael the Bard did and be recognised as Lord Stark (at least untill Rickon grows up if he manages to survive the series).

What better way for LF who was considered inferior to revenge both the Tullys and the Starks.

Edited by dragontamer, 28 November 2012 - 07:30 AM.

[theguyfromtheVale]

1) For me, there was immense build-up for Stannis coming to the Wall, starting with the letters sent to the various kings - someone had to react to them, and Stannis did.

2) Oh, but it does. Tyrion loves Jaime for being the only one who was ever kind to him - and the only kindness in question is the Tysha incident. Tyrion believes Jaime payed a whore for him. What else should that kindness that Jaime never did be?

3) The term mummer's dragon originates in ACoK, as you say. But Dany never interprets it as a fake Targ, but just as someone she will have to fight. So your point actually applies. The prophetic images are usually correct; it's the interpretation that sometimes breaks down.

4) Since the Dorne setting wasn't introduced before AFfC, it's kinda hard to really know much about Doran beforehand anyway...

5) The Tower of Joy was named such by Rhaegar. Lyanna was found there. Rhaegar also kidnapped Lyanna, by all known accounts. See a connection there? Also, the blue roses are also connected to Rhaegar, considering Rhaegar gave Lyanna a crown of blue winter roses. In her lap. I don't see how the symbolism could be less blatant. The blue winter rose refers to Jon and connects him to both Rhaegar and Lyanna.

What paradoxes are you talking about?

6) Bael was a bard who would be king.  Know another musically gifted crown prince?... Yes, there are also parallels to Mance Rayder and Baelish, but you simply ignore the Rhaegar connection because it doesn't suit your position on R+L=J. Littlefinger was barely 16 at the time, didn't know Lyanna and had no connections to the ToJ. I don't see how he could have done it.

[dragontamer]

theguyfromtheVale, on 28 November 2012 - 07:27 AM, said:

5) The Tower of Joy was named such by Rhaegar. Lyanna was found there. Rhaegar also kidnapped Lyanna, by all known accounts. See a connection there? Also, the blue roses are also connected to Rhaegar, considering Rhaegar gave Lyanna a crown of blue winter roses. In her lap. I don't see how the symbolism could be less blatant. The blue winter rose refers to Jon and connects him to both Rhaegar and Lyanna.

What paradoxes are you talking about?

6) Bael was a bard who would be king.  Know another musically gifted crown prince?... Yes, there are also parallels to Mance Rayder and Baelish, but you simply ignore the Rhaegar connection because it doesn't suit your position on R+L=J. Littlefinger was barely 16 at the time, didn't know Lyanna and had no connections to the ToJ. I don't see how he could have done it.

I don't see how the tower's name means something unless you are suggesting that it was their love nest before the elopement. Rhaegar must have named the tower such long before meeting Lyanna. And of course I know that the offical story is that Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna. But what if Lyanna was pregnant and afraid of her baby. Hoster Tully forced Lysa to abort her child from LF, so this time he made sure that history wouldn't repeat itself and convinced Lyanna to run away. I don't deny that there must be some affection between her and Rhaegar so she asked him to help her and that was all LF needed to spread the rumours and create chaos as usual.
The blue rose was a reference to Lyanna even before Harrenhal since it was her favorite flower. A man offering a woman her favorite flower doesn't make it necessarily a symbol of their union. As I said before in Bael the Bard's tale the blue rose was a symbol of that Stark daughter as well so maybe is a more general symbol including women of the North or Stark women.

The paradoxes are the inconsistency regarding Rhaegar's motives, timing, character and plans. His actions go against his character, the timing is questionable and the motives vague. Not to mention that he totally messes his former plan to overthrow his father by doing something so childish and loosing instead of gaining allies as he meant to do a year before at Harrenhal.

In you opinion, the name Bael-ish (especially with the use of -ish ) is a coincidence and has nothing to do with Bael the Bard's story?

Edited by dragontamer, 28 November 2012 - 11:10 AM.

[Bear Island Bruiser]

J. Stargaryen, on 27 November 2012 - 06:37 PM, said:

Two more paragraphs of speculation. They can be added to the collection.

Do you know why we think Lyanna gave birth at the ToJ? Because there are hints and clues pointing us in that direction. Lyanna died in a bed of blood. MMD talks about the secrets of the bloody bed, which is a reference to childbirth. If we can reasonably assume that bloody bed = bed of blood, and I think we can, then that means Lyanna gave birth at the ToJ.

That's 2 reference points fairly far apart (in distance at least) one of which is seen in a fever dream.  The fact that MMD refers to the secrets of the bloody bed give hints to Lyanna dying in a bed of blood but Lyanna's bed could be bloody for any number of reasons.
I'll chuck this one into your speculations and assumptions pile shall I?

J. Stargaryen, on 27 November 2012 - 06:37 PM, said:

Arguing that they literally have a choice to keep their vows or not is just stating the obvious. What I don't see is how they could refuse to recognize the crown prince's marriage without breaking a few of their KG oaths, and maybe a law or two. Rhaegar performing a marriage ceremony is as good as ordering his subjects, including the KG, to recognize the bride as his legal wife, able to bear him legal heirs. Refusal to do so would be tantamount to refusing an order from the crown prince.

Not sure which part of the KG vows they'd be breaking here.  In fact as far as I can tell none at all, and certainly not any law.  The marriage, if there was one another one for your speculation pile, would be shaky at best in the eyes of the 7, the religion all the KG follow, and they're the KINGS Guard not the Crown Prince Guard.  They're sworn to obey and not judge the King not the royal family.  In fact as Rhaegar dies at the Trident before Aerys at no point is Rhaeger even the King apparent.

Also as Aerys is the Head of House Targarean it is his right and responsibility to choose the marriages of all his children, as King more so.  So if Rhaegar had married Lyanna this is far the more treasonous act than the KG not accepting his polygamous marriage (again OK it was done by the Targs but not for a long time).  It's legitmacy (again if it took place) is on shaky ground in the eyes of the King and religion.

It's still possible that it took place but it's a huge bit of speculation.

[Ygrain]

dragontamer, on 28 November 2012 - 05:35 AM, said:

5) The only known connection between Rhaegar and Lyanna is Harrenhal. If you forget that and examine the clues about Jon’s parentage there are quiet few that point towards Lyanna as the mother but none towards Rhaegar. Then comes the question, if Lyanna is the mother who could be the father and it’s then you remember Harrenhal since there is absolutely no other candidate so it’s conclusive it has to be Rhaegar. But to accept that imo one has to overcome certain paradoxes that I can’t.

Pardon? In my book, it is stated that Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna, then was the Rebellion and Lyanna was recovered only after the rebellion, at a place that was named by Rhaegar and supplied with blue roses. This does not count as a connection between Lyanna and Rhaegar, who supposedly spent most of the time raping her?

dragontamer, on 28 November 2012 - 05:35 AM, said:

Additionally I find very interesting the tale about Bael the Bard and the blue rose (symbol of lord Stark’s daughter who Bael stole as well as Lyanna’s, so maybe it’s a more general symbol of Stark daughters rather than a specific one for Lyanna) and LF’s name. It may be a happy coincidence that his real name is so rarely used but I wonder….

It is not a symbol of Stark daughters in general. In the story about Bael, the connection is built on the winter rose being the most precious kind of flower, and Lord Stark's only daughter, who was, metaphorically speaking, her father's most precious flower, as well. Other than that, she may have had no other connection to blue roses whatsoever. Lyanna was also a single daughter and she loved winter roses, was crowned with them and held them on her deathbed. No such symbolics or conenction is established for any other Stark daughters we have seen.

dragontamer, on 28 November 2012 - 08:02 AM, said:

I don't see how the tower's name means something unless you are suggesting that it was their love nest before the elopement. Rhaegar must have named the tower such long before meeting Lyanna.

Huh? A love nest weeks to months of travel away before the actual elopment is kinda impractical. And from what do you conclude that the name preceded their affair? Rhaegar supposedly kidnaps a young woman who he was supposedly in love with, and she is discovered after giving birth at a remote location called tower of joy - what's so improbable about the place being called "of joy" because it was the first time the chap could actually be happy?

dragontamer, on 28 November 2012 - 08:02 AM, said:

And of course I know that the offical story is that Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna. But what if Lyanna was pregnant and afraid of her baby. Hoster Tully forced Lysa to abort her child from LF, so this time he made sure that history wouldn't repeat itself and convinced Lyanna to run away. I don't deny that there must be some affection between her and Rhaegar so she asked him to help her and that was all LF needed to spread the rumours and create chaos as usual.

dragontamer, on 28 November 2012 - 08:02 AM, said:

The blue rose was a reference to Lyanna even before Harrenhal since it was her favorite flower. A man offering a woman her favorite flower doesn't make it necessarily a symbol of their union. As I said before in Bael the Bard's tale the blue rose was a symbol of that Stark daughter as well so maybe is a more general symbol including women of the North or Stark women.

See above. And the thing that makes blue rose a symbol of their union is not the flower itself but the circumstances - Lyanna is holding it on her deathbed. Dried. Meaning, she somehow got hold of those rare blue roses after her kidnapping , or it was the very crown from Harrenhall which she kept - in both cases, the flowers were so dear to her that she not only dried them but held to them as she was dying, which goes well beyond mere fondness of flowers. Either way, Rhaegar was the only one who could arrange the roses for her, therefore, the roses now symbolise not just Lyanna herself but the union with Rhaegar, as well.

[Bear Island Bruiser]

Dragonfish, on 27 November 2012 - 07:33 PM, said:

This is a big assumption. What evidence would the Kingsguard have to conclude that Ned wouldn't harm the child? Remember, Ned is associated with the people who murdered Rhaegar's other children, and they may not know that Ned had a falling out with Robert over it.

Err it's Ned Stark, Jon's 'uncle'.  So apart from anything else the rules surronding kin slaying.  Plus he's the most honourable guy in the 7 kingdoms, also as the sacking of KL was done by Lannister's Ned's got little to do with them.  The KG would certainly have been aware of the Lannisters wait and see stance.

Dragonfish, on 27 November 2012 - 07:33 PM, said:

And Barristan believes he broke his oath in doing so. So why use him as an example? Especially since we are explicitly shown that the Kingsguard whom Ned found at the ToJ were still loyal to the Targaryens.

Barristan comes to accept this only after he's been dismissed not before.  He accepts Robert as the King rather than Viserys who he'd be duty bound, if he didn't believe Robert to be the actual King, to go and seek out.  Barristan was loyal to the Targaryens right up until their fall.  It's a clear example of the KG making a decision about who the rightful King is and not just following blindly, as was suggested, as such IF you accept R+L=J and IF you follow the huge speculation that they were married for the KG to accept Jon as the rightful king they, personally, would have to accepted the legitmacy of the marriage.  The fact they were still loyal to the Targs is irrellevent on this.

[Ygrain]

Bear Island Bruiser, on 28 November 2012 - 08:40 AM, said:

That's 2 reference points fairly far apart (in distance at least) one of which is seen in a fever dream.  The fact that MMD refers to the secrets of the bloody bed give hints to Lyanna dying in a bed of blood but Lyanna's bed could be bloody for any number of reasons.
I'll chuck this one into your speculations and assumptions pile shall I?

“That was the way of this cold world, where men fished the sea and dug in the ground and died, whilst women brought forth short-lived children from beds of blood and pain.”
― George R.R. Martin, A Feast for Crows
Need some more?

Bear Island Bruiser, on 28 November 2012 - 08:50 AM, said:

Err it's Ned Stark, Jon's 'uncle'.  So apart from anything else the rules surronding kin slaying.  Plus he's the most honourable guy in the 7 kingdoms, also as the sacking of KL was done by Lannister's Ned's got little to do with them.  The KG would certainly have been aware of the Lannisters wait and see stance.

The most honourable guy of the seven kingdoms is honour-bound to reveal the existence of Rhaegar's heir to his new king, who happens to be the guy who killed Rhaegar and condoned the murder of his children. Not a guy I would entrust with the life of my child under such circumstances.

[FrozenFire3]

dragontamer, on 28 November 2012 - 08:02 AM, said:

The paradoxes are the inconsistency regarding Rhaegar's motives, timing, character and plans. His actions go against his character, the timing is questionable and the motives vague. Not to mention that he totally messes his former plan to overthrow his father by doing something so childish and loosing instead of gaining allies as he meant to do a year before at Harrenhal.

(Un)fortunately Rhaegar's motives, timing, character and plans are quite... inconsistent when it comes to Lyanna. Since the very beginning:

Ned remembered the moment when all the smiles had died, when Prince Rhaegar Targaryen urged his horse past his own wife, the Dornish princess Elia Martell, to lay the queen of beauty’s laurel in Lyanna’s lap. He could see it still: a crown of winter roses, blue as frost.

Which, btw, could be the very same Lyanna still kept in her hands before dying:

Promise me, she had cried, in a room that smelled of blood and roses. Promise me, Ned... Ned remembered the way she had smiled then, how tightly her fingers had clutched his as she gave up her hold on life, the rose petals spilling from her palm, dead and black...

[Budj]

If R+L=J and the KG are upholding their oath then Jon is legitimate.  If Jon is legitimate then R+L were married.  The reference of old gods marriage is only used to support this notion (a precedent of the possibility) and it isn't the basis of the argument.  The KG are the basis of the argument.

The key here is that Jon was born (you can only refute this if Ned cut baby out himself, which we have no indication of) and all the remaining KG were there - Viserys' was unprotected (by KG).  I don't know what other conclusion you can draw.  It requires stretching the story to say it was Aegon there (explaining the KG actions) and that is the only possibility that could refute all the other evidence.