159 replies to this topic

[Padraig]

KAH, on 17 March 2013 - 02:54 PM, said:

As it is, Assad has no real possibility to win this war, but he may be able to prolong it for a great deal of time, in part because he has much better military hardware than the opposition. I daresay the FSA would prefer having something better than small arms and homemade bombs to fight with, even if it means Assad getting even more toys from his Russian and Iranian buddies...the level of offensive power would still be evened out between the parties of the conflict.

Yes.  Not the best argument in the world.

This situation lacks good solutions though.  For those that are nonplussed by the religious views of the rebels, the forces alligned with Assad are not particularly endearing either.

It does still seem likely that the rebels will win but as this war has developed, the hardline factions have come to increasing prominence.  I'm not a big supporter of giving the rebel's weapons but there is logic to the idea that this may boost some of the other factions.

[Horza]

Yep, the situation is incredibly murky, and as Aron Lund reminds us, there's no such thing as the Free Syrian Army anyway:

Quote

The original FSA: a branding operation

The FSA was created by Col. Riad el-Asaad and a few other Syrian military defectors in July 2011, in what may or may not have been a Turkish intelligence operation. To be clear, there’s no doubting the sincerity of the first batch of fighters, or suggest that they would have acted otherwise without foreign support. But these original FSA commanders were confined to the closely guarded Apaydın camp in Turkey, and kept separate from civilian Syrian refugees. Turkish authorities are known to have screened visitors and journalists before deciding whether they could talk to the officers. While this is not in itself evidence of a Turkish intelligence connection, it does suggest that this original FSA faction could not, how shall we say, operate with full autonomy from its political environment.

From summer onwards, new rebel factions started popping up in hundreds of little villages and city neighborhoods inside Syria, as an ever-growing number of local demonstrators were provoked into self-defense. The most important recruiting tool for this nascent insurgency was not the FSA and its trickle of videotaped communiqués on YouTube. Rather, it was Bashar el-Assad’s decision to send his army on a psychotic rampage through the Syrian Sunni Arab countryside. As the corpses piled up, more and more civilians started looking for guns and ammo, and the rebel movement took off with a vengeance.

While the new groups almost invariably grew out of a local context, and organized entirely on their own, most of them also declared themselves to be part of the FSA. They adopted its logotype, and would often publicly pledge allegiance to Col. Riad el-Asaad. As a branding operation, the FSA was a extraordinary success – but in most cases, the new “FSA brigades” had no connection whatsoever to their purported supreme commander in Turkey. In reality, what was emerging was a sprawling leaderless resistance of local fighters who shared only some common goals and an assemblage of FSA-inspired symbols.

[Saci Targaryen]

The FSA are a loosely connected band of jihadists,street thugs, and mercenaries funded by, you know who, the Qatari and the Saudis once again..

Edited by Saci Targaryen, 17 March 2013 - 07:58 PM.

[Sun]

CIA begins sizing up Islamic extremists in Syria for drone strikes

http://articles.lati...-syria-20130316

Quote

The targeting is part of an array of CIA and Pentagon responses and contingency plans as the Syrian bloodletting steadily worsens, threatening regional stability. Other proposals include plans to seize or destroy Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles, which are closely monitored by U.S. intelligence, to prevent their misuse.
The targeting officers focusing on Syria are based at CIA headquarters in Langley, Va., officials said. The agency has not deployed many American operatives into the war zone, but it works closely with Saudi, Jordanian and other regional spy services active there. CIA officers meet with Syrian rebel leaders in Turkey and Jordan, current and former officials say.

Quote

CIA targeting officers normally assemble bits of intelligence — including agent reports, cellphone intercepts, video footage, public records, tips from foreign spy services — to create folders known as "targeting packages," for a variety of reasons.

Quote

Some former CIA officials expressed skepticism about any idea of using armed drones in Syria. There is no evidence, they said, that Syrian militants pose a threat to the U.S. homeland.
"If we do this, why don't we start droning people in Hezbollah?" asked a former CIA officer who worked in Iraq, referring to the Lebanon-based militant group that Washington considers a terrorist organization. "It opens the door for a lot of other things."

[Padraig]

Saci Targaryen, on 17 March 2013 - 07:54 PM, said:

The FSA are a loosely connected band of jihadists,street thugs, and mercenaries funded by, you know who, the Qatari and the Saudis once again..

Compared to the army thugs funded (financially and with feet on the ground) by Hezbollah and Iran?

[Horza]

Heh, Saci has decided that some thugs are better than others.

Also, most FSA brigades are the result of local people trying to defend themselves against regime-affiliated militia. That some elements are now getting Gulf support doesn't detract from the fact that this was a domestic, Syrian protest movement that became an insurrectionary army after the Assads decided to try and shoot their way out of trouble in mid-2011.

[KAH]

Horza, on 17 March 2013 - 07:42 PM, said:

Yep, the situation is incredibly murky, and as Aron Lund reminds us, there's no such thing as the Free Syrian Army anyway:

Well, I gather part of the problem is that all the local autonomous bits of resistance have only a notional link to the FSA leadership, proclaiming their support and allegiance, but not receiving acting orders (or if they do, choose for themselves whether they'd like to follow them or not).

Offering material support to the FSA leadership could change that; they would not simply be people in fancy uniforms trying to tell you what to do - they would have something helpful to offer their nominal subordinates.

Of course, you'd need a careful vetting process; setting down clear lines between what is FSA and what is not FSA...

[Horza]

KAH, on 19 March 2013 - 04:10 AM, said:

Well, I gather part of the problem is that all the local autonomous bits of resistance have only a notional link to the FSA leadership, proclaiming their support and allegiance, but not receiving acting orders (or if they do, choose for themselves whether they'd like to follow them or not).

Offering material support to the FSA leadership could change that; they would not simply be people in fancy uniforms trying to tell you what to do - they would have something helpful to offer their nominal subordinates.

Of course, you'd need a careful vetting process; setting down clear lines between what is FSA and what is not FSA...

As the piece points out, the 'FSA leadership' consists of a couple dozen defector generals, almost all of them outside Syria and with no armies to match their big titles. There's no FSA for them to lead, and few of the groups doing the fighting have any respect or alliegence to them.

Arming one leader or another will make them a magnet for fighting groups who need the arms but it won't of itself improve combat capacity or command and control. Weapons could just as easily be used for settling scores with other groups, or handed out on the basis of political and personal preferences instead of need and ability. The latter, and probably the former are inevitable given the tensions that already exist between jihadist and 'moderate' fighting groups.

This is a Syrian problem, requiring a Syrian solution. The opposition has to knit itself together if it's going to hold in the face of the regime and what comes after. The West and the Gulf make an effective, credible Syrian resistance less likely when they seek to bring into being a unity that can only come from Syrians themselves.

Edited by Horza, 19 March 2013 - 05:13 AM.

[Fez]

Regardless of which side did it (and it seems legitimately unclear what happened), oh shit:

Quote

Syria’s government accused rebels of firing a chemical weapon on Tuesday for the first time in the 2-year-old civil war, calling it the “first act” of a newly announced opposition interim government.

Rebels quickly denied the report and accused regime forces of firing the chemical weapon. Neither of the accusations could immediately be verified.

Information Minister Omran al-Zoubi said 16 people were killed and 86 wounded in the missile attack on the village of Khan al-Assal near the city of Aleppo.

If confirmed, it would mark the first time such weapons have been used since the uprising against President Bashar Assad began in March 2011.

Assuming its confirmed, guess we'll find out soon enough if that US "red line" actually exists or not.

Edited by Fez, 19 March 2013 - 09:48 AM.

[snake]

Fez, on 19 March 2013 - 09:48 AM, said:

Regardless of which side did it (and it seems legitimately unclear what happened), oh shit:



Assuming its confirmed, guess we'll find out soon enough if that US "red line" actually exists or not.

The Russians are also saying that the rebels have fired a chemical weapon.  I could almost believe that one of the more crazy Islamic factions of the rebellion would do this if they got their hands on one.  They really don't give a fuck.  I can't see Assad's forces doing it because that would then mean Western interference and they certainly do not want that.  

I think things are about to get even nastier in Syria.  

ETA:  The US is saying there is no evidence that the rebels used chemical weapons.  And they are warning the Syrian government about using them.

Edited by snake, 19 March 2013 - 11:15 AM.

[Padraig]

There has been claims before that chemical weapons have been used.

If regime claims are to be believed, it really needs to explain how the rebels got their hands on such.  The regime has previously said that such weapons are secure.  

The Russians are just backing its ally.  That doesn't add anything.

The regime is probably desperate enough to use chemical weapons in a limited way.  Things are so messy in Syria that it will be very difficult to get hard proof. Especially given US's history with WMDs.

[Fez]

Just saw it reported that the Syrian government has asked the UN to investigate the chemical weapons attack.  Either they're doubling down on a bluff, or someone else, either rebels or a rogue loyalist, really is responsible.

[Winterz]

If the Syrian government really thought the rebels were behind it, I'm sure they'd reply in the same coin.

[KAH]

Horza, on 19 March 2013 - 05:12 AM, said:

This is a Syrian problem, requiring a Syrian solution. The opposition has to knit itself together if it's going to hold in the face of the regime and what comes after. The West and the Gulf make an effective, credible Syrian resistance less likely when they seek to bring into being a unity that can only come from Syrians themselves.

Well, I agree that there is a need for the Syrian opposition to knit itself together, rather than the West trying to force it - yet, the Iranians and the Russians, the Kurds and the Turks, the Qataris and the Saudis...do they share that view? Or will they just send in their own guns, to their own favourites, and work to make the Syrians take their cue instead?

If the West stay out of it completely, it means that theirs is the only message that the Syrians can afford to ignore, because they're not bringing anything to the table anyway.

[Horza]

KAH, on 21 March 2013 - 05:44 PM, said:

Well, I agree that there is a need for the Syrian opposition to knit itself together, rather than the West trying to force it - yet, the Iranians and the Russians, the Kurds and the Turks, the Qataris and the Saudis...do they share that view? Or will they just send in their own guns, to their own favourites, and work to make the Syrians take their cue instead?

If the West stay out of it completely, it means that theirs is the only message that the Syrians can afford to ignore, because they're not bringing anything to the table anyway.

That's the sad reality, I agree. For the West, the Gulf and the Iranian bloc Syria is a chessboard, and nobody cares what happens to the people on the ground as long as their guys don't 'lose'.

[snake]

Huge suicide bombing in a mosque against a pro regime cleric.  Reports are 42 dead and 8 wounded.  It keeps getting worse and worse.

Story.

I'm starting to wonder if the West should not get involved.  I hate to see the Saudi's and Qatar get their way but how much worse will this get??  Fucking extremists!!

[Horza]

Lots of big Syria news

- Head of National Coalition resigns. Highly murky this one, a lot of people suggesting it's as a result of Qatari and MB pressure

- Chivers and others at the NYT flesh out some long-running whispers regarding military aid to rebel groups: Saudi and Qatari money, Jordanian and Turkish distribution and CIA co-ordination. What started as a trickle in early 2012 has turned into a 'cataract' last November.

- Riad Asaad, the first person to claim leadership of the FSA but since sidelined, severely wounded by a bomb blast

Other stuff:

- Rania Abouzeid (an Aussie) writes from rebel-held Raqqa city - solidly in rebel hands and last regime outposts in the province soon to fall.

- A Guardian profile of Brown Moses, the unemployed spreadsheet maven who combs Syria footage for clues on arms transfers - even the experts are impressed.

[kissoon]

Padraig, on 19 March 2013 - 02:36 PM, said:

If regime claims are to be believed, it really needs to explain how the rebels got their hands on such.  The regime has previously said that such weapons are secure.

Considering how easy foreign fighters and weapons cross the border, looking at a Libyan source would be a good bet. Turkey and Jordan should be explaining their cooperation with the proliferation of arms in this conflict, not the Syrian regime.

[kissoon]

snake, on 21 March 2013 - 09:41 PM, said:

I'm starting to wonder if the West should not get involved.  I hate to see the Saudi's and Qatar get their way but how much worse will this get??  Fucking extremists!!

The West has been involved from the start. The Saudi's and Qatar's way is the West's way.

[Padraig]

kissoon, on 25 March 2013 - 07:18 AM, said:

Considering how easy foreign fighters and weapons cross the border, looking at a Libyan source would be a good bet. Turkey and Jordan should be explaining their cooperation with the proliferation of arms in this conflict, not the Syrian regime.

Libya.  A source for chemical weapons?  Didn't Gaddafi decommission most of that?  And even if he didn't, surely it would be widescale news if it had found its way to Syria?  Or even found its way out of the country.

Fighters and weapons are not comparable to chemical weapons.

And whatever about Turkey and Jordan, what about Russia and Iran?  Haven't they proliferated weapons?