159 replies to this topic

[Kouran]

Shryke, on 06 December 2012 - 08:40 PM, said:

The US and the UN and basically everyone is watching his chemical weapons like a hawk and are just waiting to jump on top of them the minute it becomes necessary.

So that's at least hopefully not going to be a problem.

Sure the US would respond, the UN doesn't have any planes so they would ineffectually whine about it like normal. The problem is that once tge situation reaches the point where there is no down side to using VX then why not use it? If your back is against the wall you might as well gas the fuck out of the rebels and hope you can get tge upper hand.

Who gives a fuck if your going to hang tomorrow if you have a chance at surviving today. I am not saying that fucker shouldn't hang but giving him no way out just isn't a good idea.

The real mess will be once the regime falls what happens to all the chems then.

[The Iceman of the North]

Except of course that Assad knows that if he uses VX or sarin, his ass is toast, so the only effect of using it is to inflict some minor losses on his enemies. Surprisingly few people actually chose to go out in a 'blaze of glory', even if they have the opportunity to do so. Suicide, or a last ditch attempt to flee the country (even with nowhere safe to go) are all far more plausible end scenarios for Assad.

[Galactus]

More likely he might use the chemical weapons as a way to bargain a safe hiding spot somewhere.

[Ser Robin Hill]

Uchiha Madara, on 07 December 2012 - 06:12 AM, said:

I know a Syrian too! He says Bashar Al Assad should be hanged in public, doesn't care about womens' rights.

What a surprise.  Hang the guy who oppressed everyone and only oppress half the population.  An interesting concept of progress.

[Kouran]

The Iceman of the North, on 07 December 2012 - 07:11 AM, said:

Except of course that Assad knows that if he uses VX or sarin, his ass is toast, so the only effect of using it is to inflict some minor losses on his enemies. Surprisingly few people actually chose to go out in a 'blaze of glory', even if they have the opportunity to do so. Suicide, or a last ditch attempt to flee the country (even with nowhere safe to go) are all far more plausible end scenarios for Assad.

If Assad tries to flee his own people inside the regime will pull him down, if he tries to fight he is going to lose. He has no upsides here.

[The Iceman of the North]

Kouran, on 07 December 2012 - 09:54 AM, said:

If Assad tries to flee his own people inside the regime will pull him down, if he tries to fight he is going to lose. He has no upsides here.

So what's the upside of using WMD?

See also Galactus' reply.

[Ser Robin Hill]

And, a person in that type of no win situation, will be tempted to use an extreme measure.  Now, does anyone know whether Assad has VX or Sarin?  If the latter, and the binary agents have already been mixed, it has a shelf life of only a few weeks.  The problem is, you can't bomb the facilities in which it is stored without releasing it into the air.  A ground assault would probably be met with the intentional detonation of the shells stored, as well.

If it has been mixed, as some sources suggest, it will either be used in the next few weeks, or not at all.

[Ser Robin Hill]

The Iceman of the North, on 07 December 2012 - 10:43 AM, said:

So what's the upside of using WMD?

To Assad, knowing he took as many of his enemies with him, as he could.  To anyone else, no upside, at all.

[The Iceman of the North]

Lorien, on 07 December 2012 - 10:50 AM, said:

And, a person in that type of no win situation, will be tempted to use an extreme measure.  Now, does anyone know whether Assad has VX or Sarin?

The possession of these weapons have been confirmed by Syrian officials, which they can safely do without fear of repercussions, since they are technically allowed to have them (but not use them).

As for your first point, as I mentioned above, this "blaze of glory" exit is an option very few people actually end up availing them of even if they can. Organizing a "stay behind" type of guerilla to harass the new regime is common enough, but not the out with a bang option.

What examples do you have of this being used by defeated dictators?

[Ser Robin Hill]

None, but how many defeated dictators were Alawi minorities in a Sunni majority country?

[The Iceman of the North]

How is being Alawi  relevat? Are they inherently more evil or something?

[Kouran]

The Iceman of the North, on 07 December 2012 - 10:43 AM, said:

So what's the upside of using WMD?

See also Galactus' reply.

Considering there have been multiple reports that the regime has mixed the binary's for some of the sarin they have on hand. As well there are reports that they have loaded the mixed agent into free fall aerial bombs.

http://www.wired.com...ical-weapons-3/
http://worldnews.nbc...al-weapons?lite

At this point I would suspect that given the fact the end is near for Assad anyway the threshold for doing something massively crazy like gassing Aleppo is pretty small. I mean why not, when you lose your getting drug through the streets and killed by a mob anyways; or you could gas a hung amount of your enemies and let the rest of the country know that you will gas the fuck out of them too if they continue to fight and see how that plays out.

Does anyone honestly expect any western nation to put boots on the ground in Syria? All Assad would have to do then is say bring it on, if you come here I will give these chemical weapons to Hezbollah. GFL with getting anyone willing to step up to that mess.

[snake]

And yet another depressing article about Syria.  

Quote

When probed about the FSA and how it operates, he asks, "Do you want the truth or the storyline?"
"The FSA and the coalition is only ink on paper," he says, elaborating that it's more of an image created to present a united front for foreign governments.
Abu Mohammad wants to be clear that he takes orders from no one.

Quote

Sitting next to him is an animated man named Abu Yasser Nejjar. An engineer who used to work in Assad's government, Nejjar explains the virtues of Islam and Shariah law.
"We have tried secularism under Bashar al-Assad. That is not what the majority of the people want," he says.
Sensing that his audience might doubt that Shariah law provides greater justice and compassion, Nejjar makes a final point. "Today, the secularism you so prize is murdering children in hospitals," he says.

Quote

Jabhat al-Nusra is made up of fighters from other Muslim countries, many of them veterans of other conflicts. The group has taken up residence in the very heart of Aleppo, in what used to be a nursing school.
The U.S. State Department is reportedly about to add Jabhat al-Nusra to its global list of terrorist organizations.
"[Jabhat al-Nusra] are courageous, pious, well trained and they have weapons and money. They are good men," Abu Muhamdeen says. But he quickly adds that he does not share their extreme views.

Quote

Quietly, away from our camera, many people in the rebel-held part of Aleppo confide that some FSA members have become as much of a terror as Assad's regime. These rebels have become the de facto law, but a law that's as problematic as the many militias.
As the conflicts drags on, many who had supported the initial uprising almost two years ago are beginning to have regrets.
A delicate man who wishes to be called Mr. Adam says he hopes Bashar al-Assad will soon be a thing of the past, but he knows that "soon" is already too late for his country.

[Ser Robin Hill]

The Iceman of the North, on 07 December 2012 - 11:48 AM, said:

How is being Alawi  relevat? Are they inherently more evil or something?

No, they are not inherently more evil.  But, they are a minority that rules the majority and are aware that if they fail, things will not go well for their own people.  If they see no way out, they will make one last desperate bid to destroy those they see as their foes.

[The Iceman of the North]

And how is that different from all other minority ruling elites that have succumbed to the majority?

[Shryke]

Kouran, on 07 December 2012 - 06:44 AM, said:

Sure the US would respond, the UN doesn't have any planes so they would ineffectually whine about it like normal. The problem is that once tge situation reaches the point where there is no down side to using VX then why not use it? If your back is against the wall you might as well gas the fuck out of the rebels and hope you can get tge upper hand.

Who gives a fuck if your going to hang tomorrow if you have a chance at surviving today. I am not saying that fucker shouldn't hang but giving him no way out just isn't a good idea.

The real mess will be once the regime falls what happens to all the chems then.

I'm not sure what your point here is. "Sure the US et all will respond, but let's assume they don't"??

The US and Israel and the rest of the NATO and maybe even some others are making noises about and/or preparing to stop any chemical weapon attack and use troops to secure chemical weapon stores and all that shit.

How successful they will be could certainly be debated, but it very much seems like what happens to the chemical is "Everyone who is not-Syria runs in to secure them".

[Ser Robin Hill]

This one may feel more isolated...and has Sarin.  Siege mentality can cause people to do things that would seem irrational and counterproductive otherwise.  If Assad's people have, indeed prepared Sarin for use, in addition to other pressures they may be under, knowing that there is a time limit before it degrades and that as the handwriting on the wall becomes more obvious, his military is going to start disappearing, will strongly influence him to use the only weapon he has left.

[Jaimeisnotazombie]

Uchiha Madara, on 07 December 2012 - 06:12 AM, said:

I know a Syrian too! He says Bashar Al Assad should be hanged in public, doesn't care about womens' rights.

Actually he says he wants the rebals to lose. He doesnt care for Assad, but says the rebals are worse. His family is rich and owns a bunch of factories in aleppo, so that maybe why.

Syrian women dont have to wear a Burqaa right? He says the Rebals are very religious and will make it a law that it has to be worn.

I've never been to Syria so i go off what he says. He says that Syria is more progressive then other islamic countries, they dont have alot of extream religious laws.

He says the rebals will change that and ruin the country.

[Kouran]

Shryke, on 07 December 2012 - 03:28 PM, said:

I'm not sure what your point here is. "Sure the US et all will respond, but let's assume they don't"??

The US and Israel and the rest of the NATO and maybe even some others are making noises about and/or preparing to stop any chemical weapon attack and use troops to secure chemical weapon stores and all that shit.

How successful they will be could certainly be debated, but it very much seems like what happens to the chemical is "Everyone who is not-Syria runs in to secure them".

Shryke,

My point is that Assad has limited options at this point, he is going down period and he knows it. So what keeps him from using the weapons he has? He has already proven that he is willing to attack civilians and bomb non combat targets. So why not use gas as his last resort.

As to global intervention the UN doesnt have a very good record on that, see Rwanda etc. His father killed something like 30k people in Homs at one point. Hafez al Assad wasnt invaded and over thrown then either so why would Assad expect to be invaded now?

I guess if we wanted to prove that we arent going to stand by and watch we would hit something before he uses the gas and say thats just a taste of whats coming if you use the gas.

Oh new article: http://www.wired.com...hemical-terror/

Apparently we now think the formulation of the sarin the Syrians have might have a shelf life of up to a year. Thats real bad news.

[Ser Robin Hill]

Kouran, on 07 December 2012 - 04:13 PM, said:

Apparently we now think the formulation of the sarin the Syrians have might have a shelf life of up to a year. Thats real bad news.

Maybe not.  It takes the, "use it or lose it" factor, out of the equation, short term.