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The Great Northern Conspiracy, Reexamined


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#21 Dr. Pepper

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:14 AM

Sort of tired and not willing to go look for the relevant passage, but didn't some of the mountain clan leaders come to the wall? They spoke with Jon atop the wall, yes? Did this happen before or after Stannis received the letter? Clue that word of Robb's missive is spreading?

#22 Zupoleon

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:19 AM

That's a good reminder about Dustin — the possibility that she had Theon take her into the crypt to verify that Bran and Rickon had been there.


I must be missing something; what info would lead Dustin to suspect Bran and Rickon were in the crypts? If that were the case, I'm not sure what she could expect to find down there to confirm her suspicions...

Couldn't agree more about Howland revealing Jon's secret at this point - he's saving that nugget for a more opportune time /smile.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':)' />

#23 Carter209

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:21 AM

Do you think word would have gotten to Karhold before Alys Karstark left, and that's why she went to Jon? Not just because he's a son of Ned, but because he's Lord Stark? I know that makes it difficult for the Karstarks and, by proxy, Roose/Ramsey to not know the truth(or that's why the letter's sent to Jon, ultimately: to draw out the true Lord of Winterfell based on Robb's will?),but could it still be relevant with Jon performing the marriage? I always thought that event would play a big role either for him or for Davos/Rickon on their way to Winterfell.

Second question: What happens to Stannis in this scenario? Is he just killed off, or does he go to the Wall?

Edited by Carter209, 07 December 2012 - 01:22 AM.


#24 tze

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:26 AM

Sort of tired and not willing to go look for the relevant passage, but didn't some of the mountain clan leaders come to the wall? They spoke with Jon atop the wall, yes? Did this happen before or after Stannis received the letter? Clue that word of Robb's missive is spreading?


It happened after Stannis received the letter (after Stannis had left the Wall, actually): Stannis went to the clans for help, they joined up with him, the group marched to Deepwood. The old clan leaders (who were too old to go on campaign) later came to the Wall for Alys Karstark's wedding, and there's a hint in Jon's final chapter that they might never have left (Jon mentions seeing "Northmen" pouring out of the surrounding buildings right before he gets stabbed).

And when Jon brings up making peace with the wildlings, The Norrey (who looks like "an old fox") says "As well make peace with wolves and carrion crows". I mean, look at who he's saying that to.

#25 Minstral

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:30 AM

If this scenario is true , and word is spreading (I say "if", and a big one at that) are there any implications that Bowen Marsh and his men found out prior? They obviously put a great deal of weight behind the sanctity of the Watch rather than the criminals that are shipped to the Wall. This could imply a more thought out conspiracy than a spur of a moment incident of Jon enraging this group.

And when Jon brings up making peace with the wildlings, The Norrey (who looks like "an old fox") says "As well make peace with wolves and carrion crows". I mean, look at who he's saying that to.


You meant "we'll" right?

#26 Ghost Wrytre

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:33 AM

Do you think word would have gotten to Karhold before Alys Karstark left, and that's why she went to Jon? Not just because he's a son of Ned, but because he's Lord Stark?


If Alys Karstark knew Jon was now King in the North, wouldn't she have (1) told him and (2) seduced him?

Or maybe (2) followed by (1).

Edited by Ghost Wrytre, 07 December 2012 - 01:36 AM.


#27 Ice Turtle

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:35 AM

However I'm not sure that Howland would spill the beans about Jon being a Targ at this point. What would it accomplish?


Lol. But it would make for an amusing moment. The Northern leadership finally meets Jon and all of them are looking at ground whistling because no one wants to be the one to tell him he is a Targ.

How Mance fits in this theory? Time-line works like this. Lady Dustin goes to crypts and later spearwife Holly wants to go there too. So if Holly doesn't want to go there only out of curiosity, Mance is interested in crypts too. Or maybe he was already there then waiting for Theon?

Also lord Manderly's long visits to privy are reported - meaning he is holding secret meetings. With whom?

#28 Apple Martini

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:37 AM

Sort of tired and not willing to go look for the relevant passage, but didn't some of the mountain clan leaders come to the wall? They spoke with Jon atop the wall, yes? Did this happen before or after Stannis received the letter? Clue that word of Robb's missive is spreading?


Tze to the rescue.

I must be missing something; what info would lead Dustin to suspect Bran and Rickon were in the crypts? If that were the case, I'm not sure what she could expect to find down there to confirm her suspicions...


Missing swords, perhaps? Evidence that someone had been there (blankets, rubbish, general living-ness).

#29 Apple Martini

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:39 AM

Lol. But it would make for an amusing moment. The Northern leadership finally meets Jon and all of them are looking at ground whistling because no one wants to be the one to tell him he is a Targ.


Kind of interesting point from the first book ...

(paraphrasing)

"Who cares about Renly or Stannis? Why should we bow to anyone from the south? It was the dragons we bowed to, and they're dead, so we're going to rule ourselves."

A few people have suggested at times that this is somehow evidence that the northerners would bow before a Targ if one showed up again. But with Jon, they get both — the Stark winter king, and the "dragon."

#30 Gar Weg Wun Sygerrik

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:45 AM

Ok, you guys got me excited now too /smile.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':)' />

#31 TheonGreyjoy

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:46 AM

This is great stuff

#32 Sworn Shield

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:47 AM

Its quite funny that the Wildlings at the moment would probably be happy to have Jon as their king as well, the Northman probably think of him as their king as well and he is probably is the legitimate heir to the seven kingdoms as well.

Edited by Sworn Shield, 07 December 2012 - 01:48 AM.


#33 Apple Martini

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:49 AM

Its quite funny that the Wildlings at the moment would probably be happy to have Jon as their king as well, the Northman probably think of him as their king as well and he is probably is the legitimate heir to the seven kingdoms as well.


*cough* The dragon has three heads *cough* /leaving.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':leaving:' />

#34 Sworn Shield

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:52 AM

Kind of interesting point from the first book ...

(paraphrasing)

"Who cares about Renly or Stannis? Why should we bow to anyone from the south? It was the dragons we bowed to, and they're dead, so we're going to rule ourselves."

A few people have suggested at times that this is somehow evidence that the northerners would bow before a Targ if one showed up again. But with Jon, they get both — the Stark winter king, and the "dragon."


Would it be possible then that not only do the Northmen know about Robb's will they are also aware of R+L=J. If Robb's will went to Howland Reed could he have told them the truth about what happened at the Tower of Joy?

#35 Tagganaro

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:53 AM

I find the idea that the North would ever get truly behind Stannis to be laughable...People will not forget about Stannis and Mel forcing the wildlings to burn weir wood branches upon being allowed through the Wall. As long as Mel is by his side, there's no chance the North ever follows him.

Plus, people have to realize that he views Robb Stark as a traitor, and will never (from what we know of him), allow half his kingdom to secede. He believes the North should not only give him their loyalty and swords to win the throne, but that they owe him this duty. Do you really think the Northmen would go for that? Butterbumps! is right, only rabid Stannis fans could believe that lol.

Everything about Stannis is diametrically opposed to the Northmen's needs and wants. They will use him to kill Bolton and Frey, and there's simply no indication that he will get anything more than that.

I find Flint and Norrey's presence at the Wall to be really interesting and somewhat inexplicable. They don't show up when the Wall is under attack by wildlings and the NW's very existence is threatened, and then all of a sudden they're showing up to bring a wet-nurse for Mance Rayder's baby and to attend a wedding? I'm not buying it. They are 100% checking out Jon in my opinion.

#36 Ice Turtle

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:56 AM

Kind of interesting point from the first book ...

(paraphrasing)

"Who cares about Renly or Stannis? Why should we bow to anyone from the south? It was the dragons we bowed to, and they're dead, so we're going to rule ourselves."

A few people have suggested at times that this is somehow evidence that the northerners would bow before a Targ if one showed up again. But with Jon, they get both — the Stark winter king, and the "dragon."


If it is true, then the question is what will they think about "Aegon"? Few of them were most probably present (was Howland?) same as Ned when Tywin brought the children bodies for Robert. So they don't have to rely on someone else's info about the event. On the other hand after "Arya" they might be a little skeptical about repairing of hidden heirs, but then again Jon will be a long lost secret heir too. Talk about complicated situation /dunno.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':dunno:' /> .

#37 Apple Martini

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:57 AM

Would it be possible then that not only do the Northmen know about Robb's will they are also aware of R+L=J. If Robb's will went to Howland Reed could he have told them the truth about what happened at the Tower of Joy?


Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that they know about Jon's parentage already. Just that it's kind of ironic that the northerners say they only bowed to the dragons but want to self-rule, when it looks like they might still get to self-rule, but with a dragon, too.

I don't see what Howland has to gain by outing Jon's parentage. He's already legitimized and already the king-in-waiting. I don't see how Howland fessing up to the parentage serves the purpose here.

I find Flint and Norrey's presence at the Wall to be really interesting and somewhat inexplicable. They don't show up when the Wall is under attack by wildlings and the NW's very existence is threatened, and then all of a sudden they're showing up to bring a wet-nurse for Mance Rayder's baby and to attend a wedding? I'm not buying it. They are 100% checking out Jon in my opinion.


Thinking back on this, I agree. Why not just stay in the mountains while the younger men go off to fight? Why go to the Wall at all? While Stannis' men are at the Wall, the Watch itself doesn't have anything to do with Stannis' fight (apart from Jon's advice); there's no strategic purpose in going there. No, you're right — they're doing recon.

Edited by Apple Martini, 07 December 2012 - 02:01 AM.


#38 Gar Weg Wun Sygerrik

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:59 AM

I really like the idea that the Stark loyal forces are begining to muster as "winter is coming"

#39 butterbumps!

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 02:01 AM

I find Flint and Norrey's presence at the Wall to be really interesting and somewhat inexplicable. They don't show up when the Wall is under attack by wildlings and the NW's very existence is threatened, and then all of a sudden they're showing up to bring a wet-nurse for Mance Rayder's baby and to attend a wedding? I'm not buying it. They are 100% checking out Jon in my opinion.


Two "wetnurses" actually (I think there was speculation somewhere that the one might not actually be a wetnurse so much as part of a plot).

Apple, I just want to say bless your soul for making this uplifting thread. I almost don't want to read more, lest someone comes in to joylessly contradict it.

#40 tze

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 02:01 AM

How Mance fits in this theory? Time-line works like this. Lady Dustin goes to crypts and later spearwife Holly wants to go there too. So if Holly doesn't want to go there only out of curiosity, Mance is interested in crypts too. Or maybe he was already there then waiting for Theon?


Theon never actually showed Holly where the crypts were, so if Mance does end up hiding in the crypts in TWOW, the only logical way for him to know their location is if Lady Dustin funnels the info to him. (If he already knew their location from his previous visits, there would've been no reason for Holly to ask in the first place.)

Also lord Manderly's long visits to privy are reported - meaning he is holding secret meetings. With whom?


Everyone.