The Latest News
Connect with Us

Notable Releases
From the Store
Game of Thrones Targaryen Fire and Blood Stein
Game of Thrones Targaryen Fire and Blood Stein
HBO US
Featured Sites
License Holders

Jump to content


Photo

Varys, the Bastard's letter, and Jon Snow


  • Please log in to reply
7 replies to this topic

#1 Maris

Maris

    Commoner

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 4 posts

Posted 08 December 2012 - 12:02 PM

Hi folks! This is my first topic/post here, although i've been reading these forums since i've finished ADWD some months ago... but i think i've never seen a topic with this theory that i'm posting here, although it seems to make a lot of sense right now. So i've decided to register and post it in here so i'd know if it really makes sense or is it's just crackpot...
before I start i'd like to say sorry for the bad english, 'cause it's been a while since i've been on an international forum x)

WARNING! Wall of text coming~~


Well.. this theory started with a discussion I had with a friend who is still reading AGOT... somehow the subject turned to Jon Snow's Parents and i was wondering if Varys knew about his mother or not(I go by L+R = J, that's why i though it was worth wondering)... for my surprise, she answered that he knew, when I asked why she said something like: "it's his character: he knows it all, he hears it all, if he didn't know something like that, wouldn't that be OOC?". At first I thought that was a little bit of a childish though...

Then I remembered once, in a soap opera that we used to watch, when a character got killed and people started wondering who did that... they first though it was his wife, then his daughter, his best friend and hundreds of different people... but no one thought it was the shows' villain, who turned out to be the murder at the end... And EVERYONE was shocked by that! I mean...sometimes the answer is in our faces, but we start to overthink things and forget that sometimes the most obvious choices are the right ones.

I started to think then: How long is Varys working for the crown? Wasn't he called by Aerys himself to spy? Aerys trust no one, not even his own son, wouldn't he put spies on Rhaegar too? You may hide a bastard that has already been born by a different name, but hiding a pregnant woman is a much harder task, so i don't really think it was that hard for Varys to find that out...this became clear to me when I was re-reading varys's dialogue with Illyrio, in AGOT:

"Yet Lord Stark's the one who troubles my sleep. He has the bastard, he has the book, and soon enough he'll have the truth. "


Which bastard is he talking about? Eddard Stark had found Gendry, it is true. But he hasn't sent him away yet, i don't even know if it was Ned stark who sent Gendry to the wall, could it be that we've been thinking about the wrong bastard after all?

Now it comes the tricky part: "If a so called Targarien loyalist knows that another of Rhaegar's sons is alive, wouldn't he do something about it?" My answer is that he already did.

---NON R + L= J part of the theory, (As my this theory doesn't really needs to rely on this fact, it's only complemented by it if it's true,i've separated that like this so if someone doesn't believe in it, it can read the "good" part of the theory without feeling angry =/)


Now, the next part of the theory doesn't really need the first one to be true... but i needed to show how I got to this, so i've started with that...

My point with all of this is that there is an actual possibility that Varys is the one responsible for the Bastard's Letter. Why? because he is the only one who would get an actual profit from that.

Varys has his little birds spread all around Westeros. It's no hard task to put a little children on the wall, mute or not, the same goes to winterfell, no one looks for the servants after all. Besides, his little birds can READ, they would know how ramsay talks, acts and writes. They would know what would make Jon go mad, they know how many men each of their armies have, they would know about Mance, the Red witch, and even about reek. He has the means to put together every single piece of information the letter contains and use it for his own profit.

How the letter helps him? That's not hard to figure out either: No matter what actions Jon takes after reading it, whether he sent Ramsay the people he asked for, put together an army to take winterfell or whatsoever, that letter would bring a massive damage in Stannis remaining troops that stayed on the Wall, as any action Lord Snow takes would cause a commotion that would crush the delicate balance that Jon worked so hard to build as LC.

That would end Stannis' "kingdom", as now he holds only the Nightfort and Storm's end(who will soon be taken by Varys' Aegon.

---/ end of non R + L = J part.

So... you may have been wondering: "wait? If that's your theory, why did you said all those things about Jon Snow anyway?" It's because, Varys may not have written that letter only to hurt Stannis, he might have other reasons to do it.

This part of the theory really depends on witch team you're on: if you believe Vary's speech, that he goes for team Targaryen, then, he may have also taken Jon from his post at the wall so he could put another person with the "blood of the dragon" in charge of somewhere: Winterfell. This way, Jon can't be dead: it would harm Varys' plan, and is being healed right now.

If you believe Aegon is fake, or that Varys is trying to put someone he "built" in the throne while exterminating all of the Targaryens, then, for his plans, Jon HAS to be dead, so his chances of surviving this are minimal: he had to eliminate Jon before the truth came to him, although that risk was minimal, that was a risk.But still, the main target of all of this was Stannis' army, Killing a targ would only be a bonus.

---

It happens that we've been worrying so much about Jon, and how this letter may have killed him that we forgot that he's involved in the Game too, this letter wasn't written to hurt Jon, It was made to attack King Stannis. Jon was just a pawn, and he was played pretty well.

What i'm trying to say is that we forgot that this particular part of the book can not be separated from the other storylines, why do we think that the letter was made by Ramsay, Alliser Thorne, Mance, or even stannis? this is not a Northern game. This is an westerosi game, why can't we consider that maybe Varys is responsible for that letter? he wouldn't be so sloppy, he wouldn't forget the North, if he has to attack the Lannisters so they fall and Aegon win the war, he wouldn't forget the north.

Why can't we think the letter was from Littlefinger either? Don't you find odd that Satin, born and raised in a BROTHEL knows how to read AND write? Couldn't he be working for LF too? He is in a sort of high position at the wall: he's the LCs steward, he may know a thing or two, he may even have read Ramsay's letter, and LF may know about reek, even better than Varys himself, and he also needs to wipe Stannis out of the way, he supposedly works for the Lannisters, who also want Jon out of the way, just like some people on the wall do. And he does hate Ned enough to want his bastard kid dead too.

We can't exclude the north from the bigger picture, of course there are conflicts between Stannis, the Boltons and Lord Snow, but it seems that we have ignored completely the "world domination" players here. I've seen a lot of topics discussing it who wrote the letter was, but i've never seen any of those names mentioned now, and I kind of undestand why: it took me a friend who is still in the first book to get me thinking of this, i guess it's because, as she's still in the firts book, she only knows the major players in this game and didn't forget what is important to consider right now...

so... that's my theory, hope it makes sense ^^

#2 NitzanLeo

NitzanLeo

    Squire

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 220 posts

Posted 08 December 2012 - 01:14 PM

Wow. Well, this is pretty long and pretty deep, and kudos on that, though I have to disagree with a few things.

1. In my opinion, it is pretty obvious that Varys meant Gendry and not Jon when he was speaking to Illyrio. Jon had nothing to do with the point Varys was making. I know this is a small part of the theory, but I just had to say this.

2. I really don't think that Varys sent the letter. You say that either action Jon would've taken in response to the letter would have helped crumble Stannis. That's not true, both on the part of hurting Stannis and on Varys's motivation to have Jon part of his 'team'. For one, let's say that through some magical way, news of what happens in the Wall and Winterfell would so quickly reach King's Landing, then to Varys (who is in hiding, mind), then back to the Wall to reach Snow, how in hell would Varys know who the hell Mance is? Yes, perhaps he knew about Mance, he is (or was) the King-Beyond-the-Wall, but how would he know that, a) Mance isn't dead, and /cool.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='B)' /> he is in Winterfell, just (perhaps) a couple of weeks after he went to Winterfell in the first place?

3. I think the whole thinking that Varys has spies all across Westeros is pretty false. He might have a few outside of King's Landing, and I think even that's stretching it. He'll probably have a few in the main cities and castles of the greater houses, but I doubt he even has more than one in the whole of the North. Also, what gain would he have of having a spy at the Wall? How would that spy even send messages back to Varys?

Well, I think I'm not really going to keep going with this. I highly doubt most of the premise of the theory, though even if (and there's a good chance of this happening, I'll give you that) Varys knows that Jon is Rhaegar's son (R+L=J is only a persumption), I doubt he'll have a lot of ways to manipulate that, as no one knows he is except for Howland Reed (again, only if R+L=J is true) and he's LC of the Night's Watch, and has dismissed all claims he might have when he joined the order.

#3 Maris

Maris

    Commoner

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 4 posts

Posted 08 December 2012 - 05:00 PM

Wow. Well, this is pretty long and pretty deep, and kudos on that, though I have to disagree with a few things.

1. In my opinion, it is pretty obvious that Varys meant Gendry and not Jon when he was speaking to Illyrio. Jon had nothing to do with the point Varys was making. I know this is a small part of the theory, but I just had to say this.

2. I really don't think that Varys sent the letter. You say that either action Jon would've taken in response to the letter would have helped crumble Stannis. That's not true, both on the part of hurting Stannis and on Varys's motivation to have Jon part of his 'team'. For one, let's say that through some magical way, news of what happens in the Wall and Winterfell would so quickly reach King's Landing, then to Varys (who is in hiding, mind), then back to the Wall to reach Snow, how in hell would Varys know who the hell Mance is? Yes, perhaps he knew about Mance, he is (or was) the King-Beyond-the-Wall, but how would he know that, a) Mance isn't dead, and /cool.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='B)' /> he is in Winterfell, just (perhaps) a couple of weeks after he went to Winterfell in the first place?

3. I think the whole thinking that Varys has spies all across Westeros is pretty false. He might have a few outside of King's Landing, and I think even that's stretching it. He'll probably have a few in the main cities and castles of the greater houses, but I doubt he even has more than one in the whole of the North. Also, what gain would he have of having a spy at the Wall? How would that spy even send messages back to Varys?

Well, I think I'm not really going to keep going with this. I highly doubt most of the premise of the theory, though even if (and there's a good chance of this happening, I'll give you that) Varys knows that Jon is Rhaegar's son (R+L=J is only a persumption), I doubt he'll have a lot of ways to manipulate that, as no one knows he is except for Howland Reed (again, only if R+L=J is true) and he's LC of the Night's Watch, and has dismissed all claims he might have when he joined the order.

whoa that's a good post you got there xD i cannot say anything about the 1st point you made though... i was just wondering... if it wasn't ned stark there, anyone who knew that prince joffrey was a bastard and had a little boy with royal blood, raised as a little stark would try to put that kid on the iron throne..but teah, robbert would have to go down first, as i said, that part was kind of a crackpot x)

about the 2nd point... i think you got me wrong... i didn't mean that the letter was written by Varys himself, i was thinking he just sent the order to send it... well of course it would be pretty tough for him to know all that but the news always seemed to get pretty fast to him...he could have spies on winterfell and on the wall but i assume he would have to be between those places, and have some pretty good messengers to deliver the information to him =/ i hadn't consider that, thanks for noticing it^^

but as for the 3rd point, I disagree... i think he may have a decent number of spies around...most of his spies are little kids, he could pretty much send them anywhere he wants =/ as for the message sending, i guess the spy would have to go to Mole's town or something like that =/ watchers go there everytime anyway =/...

I guess that theory would work only if he had a huge plan for that area many years and everything went as he comanded...or he has a very capable strategist working for him in the north... it's not so impossible is it? There are some oddly placed people there/

Even so.. i still think one of them (Varys or Illyrio) is behind that somehow...that letter worked far too well and roose would never let ramsay write something like that, with Snow in charge or not, they still need the wall to protect their territory, or at least to keep the wildlings from coming "south" =/

#4 wighty

wighty

    Sellsword

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 101 posts

Posted 09 December 2012 - 12:11 AM

I think the part of the theory about the dialogue between Varys and Illyrio an imo is worth looking into more. The wording is what has me going hmmmmm. Why would the word "has" being used in reference to the "he has the bastard." Yes Ned has a bastard. As in Jon obviously. And knows of Gendry. He doesn't have Gendry per se except if you say: Ned has the knowledge of the bastard. So if its used in that context....ok but if not??????

Just saying.....not really believing.....but saying

#5 KingOfTheRats

KingOfTheRats

    Freerider

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 53 posts

Posted 10 December 2012 - 12:21 PM

I don't know if i completely agree that Varys wrote the letter and knows about Jon, but i am definitely not ruling it out after reading this. Never underestimate Varys.
Great theory man.

Edited by KingOfTheRats, 10 December 2012 - 12:22 PM.


#6 Maris

Maris

    Commoner

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 4 posts

Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:01 AM

i'm a girl xDD but thanks

I think the part of the theory about the dialogue between Varys and Illyrio an imo is worth looking into more. The wording is what has me going hmmmmm. Why would the word "has" being used in reference to the "he has the bastard." Yes Ned has a bastard. As in Jon obviously. And knows of Gendry. He doesn't have Gendry per se except if you say: Ned has the knowledge of the bastard. So if its used in that context....ok but if not??????

Just saying.....not really believing.....but saying


yeah... i didn't really payed so much attention to the first time he said ned HAD the bastard, but now it just keeps bugging me, as unlikely as it sounds >_<'''

I just made the topic so we don't rule out Varys or Littlefinger from all of this...they may be connected somehow... no one of the main suspects of writing that letter seems so clever to pull that out of their sleeves =/

Still.. could be just a mad mad Ramsay Bolton, but I think that that letter would only be his if he was in a trouble so big that he couldn't find the time to put his seal on it =/

#7 Winter's Breath

Winter's Breath

    Freerider

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 66 posts

Posted 11 December 2012 - 02:43 PM

I agree, I think it was either Little Finger or Vays. I never really thought it was any of the northmen. They all had reasons against them sending the letter, like not being smart enough to forge it, the athority to send it, or the honor to lie and decive like that. The only think against Vays or LF is distance, but who really knows how well their information webs are, and how much time transpired before the letter. For all we know, the letter could have arrived months later, or just a week after Stanis left Deepwood Moat. The Jon last chapter has no time gauge with anything else, so the timeline is unclear.

And I like the satin working for LF theory. it is not that odd he can read and well, but it is alittle abnormal. And the thing is, in books like this you can not dismiss coincidence. His timeing and position is just to convienent. And isn't LF's most invested enterprise brothels? So, all combined I think it is evidence he is. The question is, is he there just for information of will he act on a order from abroad?

Although, in the end it does not really matter. the wall and the NW is toast in this next book. I bet the wildlings will completely over whelm the NW and kill many to revenge Jon, and then the wall will fall in the other invasion in Winter, when no one is gaurding. After that, it will be some time before the armies of the world will regroup and deal with this new threat. Untill then, the others will just steadaly move south through all the north and the neck.



#8 the_one_who_was_promised

the_one_who_was_promised

    Hedge Knight

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 323 posts

Posted 23 April 2013 - 12:00 AM

I think the strength of the evidence for R+L=J is overwhelming and the second time I watched the HBO GoT episode for instance, where Varys states that Ned "has the bastard" immediately made me think of Jon. He then proceeded to talk about another bastard, matching the description of Aegon Targeryan, whom Varys made clear was still alive.

I think it is still unclear what Varys' plans are but following this conversation, there are loose ends which could be tied in some way to John - and not just the other Targeryans.
Although it is only speculative at this stage, but some commentators have tried to link Benjen Stark's (another character who seems to share Ned's unease or at least seems to be harbouring some guilty conscience about Jon Snow) disappearance from the Wall with this conversation - as presumably he could have been another character who could have told Jon about his parentage.
Varys also urges Ned to confess his sins so that he can be spared - presumably to delay the imminent war between tthe Lannisters and the Starks, but could there be another reason? And, why, more specifically, does Varys want Ned to take the Black? What's wrong with a quiet retirement at Winterfell where he is ordered to stay away from trouble?

It is difficult to pin point what Varys' motives are at this stage. One minute he seems to be a loyal Targeryan, the next he is even seemingly plotting Danaerys' death with King Robert. Why? Is it possible that Varys is setting a wide array of elaborate actions in motion which could eventually bring about the restoration of the rightful King of Westeros (in his mind anyway), even at the expense of the lives of the other Targeryan heirs?