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Could Stannis lose the battle of winterfell?


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#1 SoftandBland

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Posted 09 December 2012 - 01:42 AM

I'm on my third read of ASOIAF and I was thinking a lot about how often the story tends to not go in the direction you think it will. I could spew out a bunch of examples, but I'll just cut to the chase. I think there's a chance that Stannis will lose the battle of Winterfell because Martin tends to adjust the narrative so often in these books.

I've considered the impact of the Boltons having Mance Rayder captive and doesn't look good for Stannis. The whole realm will know Stannis for a liar and some could say he was plotting with the wildlings, right? Also, the Boltons may use Mance to rally the Wildlings in Moletown to their cause. Could you imagine a Wildling army with good steel south of the wall? I can't picture the Wildlings being too happy with The Watch, after they crammed all of them in those tunnels. Way too overcrowded for the Free-Folk.

Thoughts?

#2 NitzanLeo

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 08:34 AM

I doubt Stannis really cares about Mance being Bolton's captive, since he was the one who ordered him dead in the beginning. I think the only thing that we can think about in the terms of who's going to win is the advantages each side has. Stannis has both Manderly on the way to him, who'll probably annihilate the Frey forces riding with them, and who knows how the loss of Fake Arya is going to affect all the other Houses under Bolton. Roose doesn't really have much in the term of advantages over Stannis except for Winterfell and Arnolf Karstark, though Theon is going to tell Stannis about that, and the tiredness of Stannis's men in the cold. So it could really go either way, since both Roose and Stannis are good tacticians.

#3 Guardian of the Lhazareen

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 08:38 AM

I would say stannis is definatly in the worst position, his host is starving, he is outnumbered, his enemy have horses and natural defences, he doesn't

#4 Lord Varys

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 09:12 AM

If Stannis is going to lose, there won't be any political story going on in the North. Stannis defeat means that Manderly and other anti-Bolton factions in the North have to go down as well, especially since we have to assume that Manderly will defect to Stannis in the coming battle.

On the long run, this is going to mean that Davos and Rickon will be killed as well, should they return alive from Skagos. If Stannis loses now, Bolton will have more than enough time to consolidate his power and ensure to rid himself of any real and potential enemies. Stannis's defeat right now would also mean that Roose has more than enough time to capture all the people who might escape the battle, i.e. Fake Arya, the Braavosi banker, Theon and/or Asha. Most importantly, considering the situation at the Wall, the utter defeat of Stannis should enable him to deal with the Night's Watch and Stannis's family as well. And even if the weather should prevent him from going personally to the Wall, sending Stannis's head to the Wall will ensure that the NW is going to deliver all of Stannis's friends and family to Roose, including Jon's corpse.

That's why this is not going to happen.

#5 Guardian of the Lhazareen

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 09:16 AM

If Stannis is going to lose, there won't be any political story going on in the North. Stannis defeat means that Manderly and other anti-Bolton factions in the North have to go down as well, especially since we have to assume that Manderly will defect to Stannis in the coming battle.

On the long run, this is going to mean that Davos and Rickon will be killed as well, should they return alive from Skagos. If Stannis loses now, Bolton will have more than enough time to consolidate his power and ensure to rid himself of any real and potential enemies. Stannis's defeat right now would also mean that Roose has more than enough time to capture all the people who might escape the battle, i.e. Fake Arya, the Braavosi banker, Theon and/or Asha. Most importantly, considering the situation at the Wall, the utter defeat of Stannis should enable him to deal with the Night's Watch and Stannis's family as well. And even if the weather should prevent him from going personally to the Wall, sending Stannis's head to the Wall will ensure that the NW is going to deliver all of Stannis's friends and family to Roose, including Jon's corpse.

That's why this is not going to happen.


Ahh, Sorry I was unaware you could predict the future.

#6 scurvy

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 09:31 AM

Stannis does have Manderly's forces on his side, albeit he doesn't know that, and the Umbers appear to be communicating with each other and are against Bolton. The Umber on the inside seems to have been letting his brother in- I believe he's the Hooded Man- the only two people to call Theon Kinslayer are one person.

Also, there are other Northern Lords inside Winterfell who have no love for the Boltons. If Davos can produce a Stark lordling for Stannis and Manderly, Bolton will have no support and they will slaughter him from inside Winterfell.

#7 Guardian of the Lhazareen

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 10:25 AM

Stannis does have Manderly's forces on his side, albeit he doesn't know that, and the Umbers appear to be communicating with each other and are against Bolton. The Umber on the inside seems to have been letting his brother in- I believe he's the Hooded Man- the only two people to call Theon Kinslayer are one person.

Also, there are other Northern Lords inside Winterfell who have no love for the Boltons. If Davos can produce a Stark lordling for Stannis and Manderly, Bolton will have no support and they will slaughter him from inside Winterfell.


you think that they would so easily break guest rights??

#8 Lord Varys

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 11:18 AM

Really, I don't see how the Stark restoration could work if Stannis is put down right now. With Jon out of the picture (and chained to the NW anyway) there simply is no powerful figure left in the North who could install Rickon Stark as Lord of Winterfell against Roose Bolton. Especially if Roose puts all the Stark loyalists down along with Stannis (which is most likely going to happen if Stannis loses his battle - it will be the end for the mountain clans, the Glovers, and the Mormonts, along with the Manderlys if they end up betraying Roose and fail).

Roose will then have time enough to consolidate his power. It is going to take quite some time until Davos returns from Skagos, and despite the fact that he is Ned Stark's son - if Roose can win the war against Stannis and the Stark loyalists without Fake Arya, one would think that the whole topic of legitimate claims would be as dead as Stannis at this point. Roose will then rule the North simply because he can.

#9 Eddard95

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 11:18 AM

you think that they would so easily break guest rights??



Nooo. I mean the Boltons and Freys never broke guest rights themselves, so why would the Northern Lords even think of doing something so heinous (sarcasm intended).

Ok for real... once the Manderly's have the go ahead, i.e. Rickon returning with Davos, they won't care what they do as long as they kick some Bolton and Frey butt. Remember what Manderly said when talking to Davos. He sure sounded really angry to me, and i don't think he would take notice of a thing like "guest right" when Roose is a turncloak who killed his own lieglord.


If Stannis is going to lose, there won't be any political story going on in the North. Stannis defeat means that Manderly and other anti-Bolton factions in the North have to go down as well, especially since we have to assume that Manderly will defect to Stannis in the coming battle.

On the long run, this is going to mean that Davos and Rickon will be killed as well, should they return alive from Skagos. If Stannis loses now, Bolton will have more than enough time to consolidate his power and ensure to rid himself of any real and potential enemies. Stannis's defeat right now would also mean that Roose has more than enough time to capture all the people who might escape the battle, i.e. Fake Arya, the Braavosi banker, Theon and/or Asha. Most importantly, considering the situation at the Wall, the utter defeat of Stannis should enable him to deal with the Night's Watch and Stannis's family as well. And even if the weather should prevent him from going personally to the Wall, sending Stannis's head to the Wall will ensure that the NW is going to deliver all of Stannis's friends and family to Roose, including Jon's corpse.

That's why this is not going to happen.

/agree.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':agree:' />

#10 Runaway Penguin

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 11:23 AM

Guest right might be problematic for Boltons and Freys since they technically ate Manderly's food (incl. Frey Pies /tongue.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':P' />), not Bolton's... Remember, it is supposed to be host's bread and salt...

Edited by Runaway Penguin, 10 December 2012 - 11:23 AM.


#11 Guardian of the Lhazareen

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 11:24 AM

Nooo. I mean the Boltons and Freys never broke guest rights themselves, so why would the Northern Lords even think of doing something so heinous (sarcasm intended).

Ok for real... once the Manderly's have the go ahead, i.e. Rickon returning with Davos, they won't care what they do as long as they kick some Bolton and Frey butt. Remember what Manderly said when talking to Davos. He sure sounded really angry to me, and i don't think he would take notice of a thing like "guest right" when Roose is a turncloak who killed his own lieglord.



/agree.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':agree:' />


Sorry but I respectfully disagree, remeber that this is the same manderly who waited for his frey guests to leave WH before hunting them down and turning them into pie. also whilst the boltons and freeys have no reguard for gueast rights as you rightly point out I get the impresion that the other houses are far more honerable and adhere to the moral principals of house stark

#12 Runaway Penguin

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 11:37 AM

Well, waiting for leaving WH was not motivated by guest right as much as by potential witnesses. Manderly won't be able to come to Winterfell for the wedding if there was a raven with report about Frey pies being baked /wink.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=';)' />

#13 Guardian of the Lhazareen

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 12:03 PM

Well, waiting for leaving WH was not motivated by guest right as much as by potential witnesses. Manderly won't be able to come to Winterfell for the wedding if there was a raven with report about Frey pies being baked /wink.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=';)' />


na if he wanted to kill them in WH he could have easily done so and left no witnesses but his own guards who wouldn't rat him out, then he could just say they left, I'M prety sure he was motivate dby guest rights

#14 Runaway Penguin

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 12:24 PM

It is better for the entire city to see them leave the gate... And showing impatience with slow progress of the fat man /wink.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=';)' /> Story about them riding ahead and vanishing is then much more plausible.

#15 Patrick Tully

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 12:40 PM

Well, waiting for leaving WH was not motivated by guest right as much as by potential witnesses. Manderly won't be able to come to Winterfell for the wedding if there was a raven with report about Frey pies being baked /wink.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=';)' />


Guest right was very much a factor in their time of death. Remember, they were given guest gifts (the palfreys) to signify the end of their "visit."

#16 Knight errant

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 03:29 PM

you think that they would so easily break guest rights??


How did they break guest right? They are in a Stark's hall, eating a Manderly's food.

Also is there anyway he can't win? I recently discovered Ramsay is supposedly "Leading" this force, if that's the case it does explain how the letter's a fake. Also the other hostile Lord is "Sir stupid". If they don't do something stupid like charge at stannis and fall into the lake then I'll give up reading, it's obvious that is what Stan the man will do - or should do. I have faith in the rightful heir and all of his supposed disadvantages will end up as his strengths, sort of like that quote Tyrion said right in the first book...

#17 sifth

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 03:39 PM

The Bolton’s are only secondary villains, compared to the threat The Others pose The North. If there really are only two books left the Bolton’s must be dealt with swiftly in the upcoming novel so The Others can take their rightful place as the main antagonist of the Northern plot

#18 alienarea

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 03:46 PM

If Manderly tells Stannis the recipe for Frey pies Stannis' host wont starve ;-)

#19 total1402

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 05:56 PM

No.

If Martin made out that Stannis was having a bad time of it then, IMO, that makes it a certainty that he will win. Plus, it would be a bit of a let down if there were no usurpers dogs left when Dany gets to Westeros. Plus, the Game of Thrones needs other players who can actually fight.

#20 Runaway Penguin

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 06:08 PM

Well, Stanis could lose a battle... And win a war, so to speak. For example retreating ahead of Ramsay and Freys to Winterfell (with Manderlies in hot pursuit and other Northern lords prepared to open the gates and let them in - and leaving Ramsay out in the snows).
Heck, Ramsay even can have his sword for all it's worth - Stannis probably does not put that much trust in it, he'd be stupid if he didn't realise the same thing Aemon did. The sword is no mystical blade, just a pretty sword. If it helps convincing Ramsay to rash actions...

Of course with Ramsay and Freys locked out of Winterfell, they become frozen Frey pies.