78 replies to this topic

[ckal]

Stannis could absolutely lose the battle for Winterfell and it would BE SO GRRM.

Count on it.

[Apple Martini]

Could he? Sure.

Will he? No.

[wearethewatchersonthewall]

Runaway Penguin, on 10 December 2012 - 11:23 AM, said:

Guest right might be problematic for Boltons and Freys since they technically ate Manderly's food (incl. Frey Pies ), not Bolton's... Remember, it is supposed to be host's bread and salt...

I think it works both ways actualy, you can tell by Jeor Mormont's reaction to the NW killing craster

[wearethewatchersonthewall]

Knight errant, on 10 December 2012 - 03:29 PM, said:

How did they break guest right? They are in a Stark's hall, eating a Manderly's food.

Also is there anyway he can't win? I recently discovered Ramsay is supposedly "Leading" this force, if that's the case it does explain how the letter's a fake. Also the other hostile Lord is "Sir stupid". If they don't do something stupid like charge at stannis and fall into the lake then I'll give up reading, it's obvious that is what Stan the man will do - or should do. I have faith in the rightful heir and all of his supposed disadvantages will end up as his strengths, sort of like that quote Tyrion said right in the first book...

technicaly it is a bolton hall now and not all the food is manderlys, anyway it would still be breaking guest rights. ofcourse their is a way he can loose, he is outmumber out horsed and out suplied with no natural defenses to speak of. I'm not saying he will loose just if you think that he can't loose you are clearly overestimating his position. also ramsy leeding the hoast has nothing to do with the legitamasy of the pink letter

[Runaway Penguin]

wearethewatchersonthewall, on 11 December 2012 - 06:29 AM, said:

I think it works both ways actualy, you can tell by Jeor Mormont's reaction to the NW killing craster

But NW were Craster's guests at Craster's home.
You have Boltons being usurpers of Stark's house (Might makes Right only if those with Might agree with you, which in this case does not apply) and eating Manderly's food... No discernible guest or host there

[Knight errant]

wearethewatchersonthewall, on 11 December 2012 - 06:37 AM, said:

technicaly it is a bolton hall now and not all the food is manderlys, anyway it would still be breaking guest rights. ofcourse their is a way he can loose, he is outmumber out horsed and out suplied with no natural defenses to speak of. I'm not saying he will loose just if you think that he can't loose you are clearly overestimating his position. also ramsy leeding the hoast has nothing to do with the legitamasy of the pink letter

Technically not though, a Stark still lives so it's still a Starks hall by right and it is still Manderly's food...

No you're underestimating his. There is a lake between the two forces   and one is dismounted on the defensive. The lake is near breaking point and the mounted frey's are too stupid to notice something like that when they charge the weakened forces they WILL fall through, bam. Instant dead Frey's. Especially with the Manderly deception. It seems likely he will win and key to the plot he at least survives this.

Also Ramsay being away in the field without Roose does. Likely over confident of victory OR believing lies told by the Manderlys wrote the letter without consulting Roose. Roose would never let his son send something like that.

Edited by Knight errant, 11 December 2012 - 05:44 PM.

[Runaway Penguin]

Commander of Manderly forces to commander of Frey forces: "Hey, dude, OK, I see you want to attack over these nice smooth fields, having us to attack through woods, rocks and hills.. I don't like it, but I guess you have more men and so are in command. I do this under protest, let us proceed. FORWARD!"

*CRACK of ice*

Commander of Manderly forces to Stannis: "Mission accomplished. Now give me your sword and we're gonna tell some rare story to Ramsay. Would you mind to pretend to run? Winterfell is that way, our friends hold the gates, password is "Frey pies"."

Edited by Runaway Penguin, 11 December 2012 - 06:00 PM.

[jarl the climber]

ckal, on 10 December 2012 - 11:13 PM, said:

Stannis could absolutely lose the battle for Winterfell and it would BE SO GRRM.

Count on it.

When I read this post I take satisfaction in knowing what fate awaits those like you once the rightful King Stannis takes his throne.

[Lord Ben]

jarl the climber, on 11 December 2012 - 07:01 PM, said:

When I read this post I take satisfaction in knowing what fate awaits those like you once the rightful King Stannis takes his throne.

Exactly!

Stannis might have to have his forces resort to cannibalism but it's nothing new to the North in Winter.  He'll win though I don't think it'll be pretty.

[Corvinus]

wearethewatchersonthewall, on 11 December 2012 - 06:37 AM, said:

technicaly it is a bolton hall now and not all the food is manderlys, anyway it would still be breaking guest rights. ofcourse their is a way he can loose, he is outmumber out horsed and out suplied with no natural defenses to speak of. I'm not saying he will loose just if you think that he can't loose you are clearly overestimating his position. also ramsy leeding the hoast has nothing to do with the legitamasy of the pink letter

Nope, it is still the Stark Hall. Bolton had the wedding there because his son was marrying "Arya" and the wedding always happens at the bride's home + Winterfell is a symbol for the entire North, so that was the perfect place for Bolton to gather the other lords.

And even if I'm wrong about this, Manderly still will not be breaking guest right, since his troops are already out of the castle. And since you said that Manderly waited for the Freys to be on the road before he killed, then this would be ok, too

[mrlukeduke]

Runaway Penguin, on 11 December 2012 - 05:58 PM, said:

"Hey, dude, OK, I see you want to attack over these nice smooth fields, having us to attack through woods, rocks and hills.. I don't like it, but I guess you have more men and so are in command. I do this under protest, let us proceed. FORWARD!"

*CRACK of ice*

I have a hunch something just like this is actually going to happen. There'll be corpses littered everywhere, perhaps preserved down deep under ice... for when the White Walkers come to resurrect them.

But I think it'll be a trap from up above as well. Stannis is going to use whatever terrain advantages he has. Those forest trees are strong and thick, and should provide good camouflage. He's already constructed at least one tower of sorts. His ravens will be sending out some juicy misinformation!

Runaway Penguin, on 11 December 2012 - 05:58 PM, said:

password is "Frey pies"."

Lols!

Lord Ben, on 11 December 2012 - 11:14 PM, said:

Stannis might have to have his forces resort to cannibalism but it's nothing new to the North in Winter.  He'll win though I don't think it'll be pretty.

Yeah it's going to be ugly, but the North seeks revenge and needs leadership and stability for winter, so I think his northern army could stay surprisingly loyal even in the face of brutal hardship. Their only other choice other than desertion/starvation at this point anyway would be a quick death in battle, at best, or potential flaying alive by Boltons at worst. They're out in it for the long haul, like it or not.

I'm quite concerned for the fate of Wyman Manderly though.

Edited by mrlukeduke, 12 December 2012 - 12:11 PM.

[Patrick Tully]

mrlukeduke, on 12 December 2012 - 12:07 PM, said:

I have a hunch something just like this is actually going to happen. There'll be corpses littered everywhere, perhaps preserved down deep under ice... for when the White Walkers come to resurrect them.

But I think it'll be a trap from up above as well. Stannis is going to use whatever terrain advantages he has. Those forest trees are strong and thick, and should provide good camouflage. He's already constructed at least one tower of sorts. His ravens will be sending out some juicy misinformation!

I'm pretty sure that is an existing abandoned tower he is using. I think we will see some real tactical genius from Stannis in the coming battle(s). However, he is in a pretty desperate situation, and GRRM certainly could be ready to thin down the major characters.

[Brindled]

Didn't the Freys break guest rights when Ser Hosteen attacked Manderly? I would think all bets are off the table. Manderly can do as he wishes at this point, imo, and any who side with him, for that matter.


"The merman of Manderly was not amongst those banners Lady Melisandre saw in her fires," Jon said.  Jon said this to Stannis about gaining the Manderlys to his cause. Whether that means he'll join Stannis or not is another matter. I can't see why not, but you never know with GRRM.

[Not-a-Weirwood-Tree]

ckal, on 10 December 2012 - 11:13 PM, said:

Stannis could absolutely lose the battle for Winterfell and it would BE SO GRRM.

Count on it.

Exactly.

Even if he does win, he'll need the help of northmen, and they aren't gonna let Stannis rule Winterfell.

[I BLAME MANCE]

Not-a-Weirwood-Tree, on 12 December 2012 - 01:09 PM, said:

Exactly.

Even if he does win, he'll need the help of northmen, and they aren't gonna let Stannis rule Winterfell.

I don't think that would be very "GRRM" especially considering the bastard letter. The frey cavalries charge and momentum died with the Umber pits and Hosteen is now in command. Hosteen and Ramsay will walk right into Stannis' trap. Stannis knows they KNOW where he is. Hosteen and Ramsay are both not strategic and with the Manderlys taking them in the rear Stannis will take out Roose's forces sent for him.
The second stage of the battle is between Roose and his forces against every Northmen in Winterfell. Between the hooded man, mance, and no longer a presence of freys to supplement roose's power winterfell. However even the internal workings of the castle DON'T cause Stannis to win the crippled boy who became a god will surely tell theon/stannis of the secret entrances [require some climbing] to winterfell. Bran referred to two in his climbing chapters that "even maester luwin didn't know about." There was also a vague refrence of a possible secret exit to the god's wood [im unclear on this one]
Stannis does not want Winterfell for himself. Infact he wanted a STARK in it and he was going to choose Jon and even wanted to give Karstark Winterfell.
The northmen will are going to use Stannis as a political shield for Rickon, Fight the wars in Stannis' name until he dies and RIckon grows up.

[wearethewatchersonthewall]

Runaway Penguin, on 11 December 2012 - 05:58 PM, said:

Commander of Manderly forces to commander of Frey forces: "Hey, dude, OK, I see you want to attack over these nice smooth fields, having us to attack through woods, rocks and hills.. I don't like it, but I guess you have more men and so are in command. I do this under protest, let us proceed. FORWARD!"

*CRACK of ice*

Commander of Manderly forces to Stannis: "Mission accomplished. Now give me your sword and we're gonna tell some rare story to Ramsay. Would you mind to pretend to run? Winterfell is that way, our friends hold the gates, password is "Frey pies"."

Have you ever thought about going into righting???
As much as I would love for this happen I just think it is being very hopeful. as readers we hate the boltons and so are naturaly biased against them. however do the other northern lords feel the same, yes they are not exactly bros but would they break their oaths and kill him in his own hall. manderly yes but I am sceptical of the rest!

[Runaway Penguin]

Not Bolton's hall (esp. since I think some Lords noticed Arya is fake), not Bolton's food... Not guest right

[wearethewatchersonthewall]

Runaway Penguin, on 12 December 2012 - 04:54 PM, said:

Not Bolton's hall (esp. since I think some Lords noticed Arya is fake), not Bolton's food... Not guest right

Ramsy is the official lord of winterfell weather we like it or not.

[Runaway Penguin]

wearethewatchersonthewall, on 12 December 2012 - 05:09 PM, said:

Ramsy is the official lord of winterfell weather we like it or not.

Nope, he's usurper. The North does not acknowledge the authority of Iron Throne incestous occupant, hence his "legitimisation" and legalisation of theft are void.

[The Sunset King]

The upcoming Battle of Ice has the makings of Stannis's Summerhall.  Robert fought three Stormlords separately at the Summerhall area, winning "three" battles in one day.  Like the enemies approaching Stannis's encampment, the foes at Summerhall planned to conduct a concerted, united attack but things went wrong.  Stannis's plan seems likely to work, especially given that he is aware of the Arnolf treachery.  Roose was counting on a surprise attack.  

SoftandBland, on 09 December 2012 - 01:42 AM, said:

I've considered the impact of the Boltons having Mance Rayder captive and doesn't look good for Stannis. The whole realm will know Stannis for a liar and some could say he was plotting with the wildlings, right? Also, the Boltons may use Mance to rally the Wildlings in Moletown to their cause. Could you imagine a Wildling army with good steel south of the wall?  I can't picture the Wildlings being too happy with The Watch, after they crammed all of them in those tunnels. Way too overcrowded for the Free-Folk.

Thoughts?

There are certains difficulties facing the Boltons using Mance as propaganda against Stannis:

1.  The Boltons won't have time to do this for quite a while.  It will take proof for the northern lords to believe that it is true, something which would be very hard to do with the siege going on.  There were witnesses at the Wall that attested to the glamored Rattleshirt being incinerated, a fact which would require physically showing Mance in the open to override.

2.  The escape of the fake Arya is more damaging to the Boltons than the Mance issue is to Stannis, although both matter in various ways.

It would, however, be a significant problem for many northern lords if the wildlings at the Wall abandon their location and start travelling south.

Edited by The Sunset King, 12 December 2012 - 05:55 PM.