78 replies to this topic

[Nick Baratheon]

It would gain the plot near nothing if Stannis lost.
But with grrm , nothing is certain

Edited by Lord Starkatheon, 12 December 2012 - 05:58 PM.

[wearethewatchersonthewall]

Runaway Penguin, on 12 December 2012 - 05:33 PM, said:

Nope, he's usurper. The North does not acknowledge the authority of Iron Throne incestous occupant, hence his "legitimisation" and legalisation of theft are void.

didn't the vast majority of the northern lords bend the knee to the iron throne after robb's failed rebelion??

[ab aeterno]

wearethewatchersonthewall, on 12 December 2012 - 07:09 PM, said:

didn't the vast majority of the northern lords bend the knee to the iron throne after robb's failed rebelion??

Sort of. Though half of the major ones are now pledged to Stannis.

[wearethewatchersonthewall]

ab aeterno, on 12 December 2012 - 07:16 PM, said:

Sort of. Though half of the major ones are now pledged to Stannis.

I count Mormont, Glover, half of Umber and the mountain clans and they arn't that big TBH. therefore the majority of the north does acknowlege the Boltons as lords of Winterfell and wardens of the North, and lets not forget that everyone bar Manderly thinks the starks are extinct

[Gannicus]

Of course the possibility of a Stannis defeat exists. But I bet against it.

With Jon potentially dead and Stannis dead why should the reader give two shits about what is going on in the North? That would eliminate so many potential plot twists and it would ultimately handcuff him as a writer. I'm aware he said people are going to start dying, hopefully it's not Stannis and Jon yet.

I know GRRM sometimes kills off a likable character, but he's also a Lord of the Rings fan. His letting the "bad guy" win thing is over stated. Ultimately I think we're going to see more happy than sad.

[Zoso6]

I'm pulling for Mance to win winterfell.

[ab aeterno]

wearethewatchersonthewall, on 12 December 2012 - 07:22 PM, said:

I count Mormont, Glover, half of Umber and the mountain clans and they arn't that big TBH. therefore the majority of the north does acknowlege the Boltons as lords of Winterfell and wardens of the North, and lets not forget that everyone bar Manderly thinks the starks are extinct

Manderly technically too, once Rickon is back. Karstark.

[SeanF]

Stannis' army (at least the Southern element) is in bad shape, but still able to fight a battle.  Stannis is far and away a better commander than Ramsay or Ser Stupid, and Manderly's men seem set to betray the Boltons.  At the same time, Arnolf Karstark's treachery has been revealed, and he faces execution.  On top of that, Mors Umber will doubtless do some damage to the Boltons.

So, I can't see Stannis losing this one.  I don't know if Roose Bolton will then flee Winterfell, or attempt to withstand a siege.

[SeanF]

wearethewatchersonthewall, on 12 December 2012 - 07:22 PM, said:

I count Mormont, Glover, half of Umber and the mountain clans and they arn't that big TBH. therefore the majority of the north does acknowlege the Boltons as lords of Winterfell and wardens of the North, and lets not forget that everyone bar Manderly thinks the starks are extinct

Support for Roose Bolton is half-hearted at best.  Only the Ryswells and Dustins are really committed to his cause.  The Karstarks were also commited to him, but Arnolf and his sons have now been arrested, and Alys is married to the Magnar.

If Davos can produce Rickon, and Stannis acknowledges him as Lord of the North, then Stannis will have the entire North behind him.

[Knight errant]

wearethewatchersonthewall, on 12 December 2012 - 07:09 PM, said:

didn't the vast majority of the northern lords bend the knee to the iron throne after robb's failed rebelion??

Officially but that means nothing, many of the french did nothing when the Germans invaded - officially.

[Runaway Penguin]

SeanF, on 13 December 2012 - 11:27 AM, said:

Support for Roose Bolton is half-hearted at best.  Only the Ryswells and Dustins are really committed to his cause.

Lady Dustin's "i hate everything Stark a lot" seems to be so obvious as to be suspicious... While she may have disputes with House Stark, she strikes me as bright enough to realise that Roose and esp. Ramsay are NOT the way to go.
Maybe she was just laying down some groundwork. After all... watching for Ned's bones may mean she just wants to keep them safe... And all the "I hate Ned" is smokescreen so that the Bolt-ons don't get suspicious when she does (after all given the fake wedding, they would be eager to make a big show of interring Ned's bones to show "See, we married into Winterfell and we honor their dead").

[wearethewatchersonthewall]

SeanF, on 13 December 2012 - 11:27 AM, said:

Support for Roose Bolton is half-hearted at best.  Only the Ryswells and Dustins are really committed to his cause.  The Karstarks were also commited to him, but Arnolf and his sons have now been arrested, and Alys is married to the Magnar.

If Davos can produce Rickon, and Stannis acknowledges him as Lord of the North, then Stannis will have the entire North behind him.

Or he will have the entire north against him as they crown Rickon KITN

[ab aeterno]

wearethewatchersonthewall, on 13 December 2012 - 01:12 PM, said:

Or he will have the entire north against him as they crown Rickon KITN

If so the northern lords will be proven no better than the Freys.

[bemused]

I don't think the Boltons have any truly committed support from any of the northern houses . Even the Karstark support was as much based on a power grab within their own house , as a break with House Stark over Robb's execution of Rickard.

My bet , too , is on Stannis for winning the battle .. but not necessarily for winning WF.

[NotSoSilentSister]

bemused, on 13 December 2012 - 01:23 PM, said:

My bet , too , is on Stannis for winning the battle .. but not necessarily for winning WF.

Dito.

I could well see Stannis deceiving the Bolton forces as described here - have the Freys fall in the lake, send the Manderleys back with a pretty story of retreat for Ramsay. If there's more of a battle, Stannis will likely win. But it might be a rather phyrric victory. Stannis' host is not exactly in prime condition right now and it will likely be in even worse shape after engagement with Freys and Boltons. Taking Winterfell won't be a piece of cake. I don't think the Boltons are quite out yet.

Still there are ways for GRRM to screw with us and I fully expect him to exploit them. I suspect that the Boltons will discover the Manderley plot in time for instance, or be able to subdue the revolt. I envision an Oberyn/Gregor type deal, where Manderley and Umbers trie something in the chaos of Theon's and Jeyne's escape and it looks like they could pull it off for a hot minute, but no, the Boltons prevail.

Stannis might have his victory at the lake, but the Northern conspiracy is going to fail - at first, at least.

Boltons will realize that they can't rely on the other Northern Lords and look for allies elsewhere.
Mance might suggest a Bolton/Wildling alliance against Stannis, Jon and the other Northmen (I don't think that's what he'd actually do, but he can convincingly argue that he holds a grudge against Stannis and Jon.... the enemy of my enemy, etc.)
Hence the Pink letter: a ploy to provoke Jon into sending armed Wildlings to Winterfell, who will go over to the Boltons the moment Mance reveals the alliance (at least that's what Mance promises).

I don't think that Pink Lettter is really about its stated purpose. The demands are simply impossible to meet - Jon couldn't if he wanted to, the Queen's entourage are not going to hand her over so easily without any substantial proof of Stannis death (and I don't believe that Stannis is actually dead, so that proof is going to be hard to come by). There has to be some hidden agenda. Someone wants that Wildling host.

It might well be Stannis himself, who needs more men after a phyrric victory to take out the Boltons for good (although it would be a bit risky to gamble on Jon and Wildlings still willing to fight for him after discovering the deception).

It might be, more plausibly IMO, the Boltons who desperately need new allies.

Mance plays along, because armed wildlings south of the Wall are definitely in his interest. Whether he has them actually turn on Jon as promised or not, I won't dare to predict; I think it would be somewhat out of character for Mance - he has to see that Jon is a worthier ally than Ramsay - but then again, the confrontation between Mance in his glamour and Jon on the training ground seems to forshadow a future confrontation; they might well end up on different sides for a while.

[Wolfs Bite]

If Stannis loses that kills off so many of the remaining fighters in the north. Even when Jon was planning on marching down with Tormund Giantsbane they didn't have the numbers to stand against Bolton's current host. If Stannis loses that obliterates what's rest of the Northern men as you know he's not going down without a fight.

I think for the way the story is headed AND for the sake of leaving some semblance of forces in the north Stannis has to win in a bit of a route. Freys fall into the river and he joins up with Lord Manderly. They take the Boltons nearly unaware by having the gates opened for them.

[drigoly]

wearethewatchersonthewall, on 12 December 2012 - 07:09 PM, said:

didn't the vast majority of the northern lords bend the knee to the iron throne after robb's failed rebelion??

some, but imagine Davos returning Rickon, the king in the north !

[Bluesnow]

Sure... why not.

Something has to smack Mel in the face eventually that she's WRONG about Stannis being AA... What better way than just killing him off

Plus as many people have mentioned alot of chaotic stuff is going to happen if Stannis loses... bad things for the North, bad things for the wall, bad things for Jon. Personally I think it would be an AMAZING chapter to see an army of Notherners attack the wall... would be even cooler if they got attacked from the north by the remaining wildling hoards and/or others at the same time

[wearethewatchersonthewall]

drigoly, on 13 December 2012 - 03:27 PM, said:

some, but imagine Davos returning Rickon, the king in the north !

Thankyou,   The King In the North, tho some people on this board think if the north crowned Rickon then they would be no better than the Freys, PHA

[wearethewatchersonthewall]

ab aeterno, on 13 December 2012 - 01:21 PM, said:

If so the northern lords will be proven no better than the Freys.

LOL, yousa funny!!!